The Great Moderation and the Relationship between Output Growth and Its Volatility

This study examines the effect of the Great Moderation on the relationship between U.S. output growth and its volatility over the period 1947 to 2006. First, we consider the possible effects of structural change in the volatility process. In so doing, we employ GARCH-M and ARCH-M specifications of the process describing output growth rate and its volatility with and without a one-time structural break in volatility. Second, our data analyses and empirical results suggest no significant relationship between the output growth rate and its volatility, favoring the traditional wisdom of dichotomy in macroeconomics. Moreover, the evidence shows that the time-varying variance falls sharply or even disappears once we incorporate a one-time structural break in the unconditional variance of output starting 1982 or 1984. That is, the integrated GARCH effect proves spurious. Finally, a joint test of a trend change and a one-time shift in the volatility process finds that the one-time shift dominates.

The characterization of residential fungal spores and the relationship with housing characteristics in the Houston area

A number of indoor environmental factors, including bioaerosol or aeroallergen concentrations have been identified as exacerbators for asthma and allergenic conditions of the respiratory system. People generally spend 90% to 95% of their time indoors. Therefore, understanding the environmental factors that affect the presence of aeroallergens indoors as well as outdoors is important in determining their health impact, and in identifying potential intervention methods. This study aimed to assess the relationship between indoor airborne fungal spore concentrations and indoor surface mold levels, indoor versus outdoor airborne fungal spore concentrations and the effect of previous as well as current water intrusion. Also, the association between airborne concentration of indoor fungal spores and surface mold levels and the age of the housing structure were examined. Further, the correlation between indoor concentrations of certain species was determined as well. ^ Air and surface fungal measurements and related information were obtained from a Houston-area data set compiled from visits to homes filing insurance claims. During the sampling visit these complaint homes exhibited either visible mold or a combination of visible mold and water intrusion problems. These data were examined to assess the relationships between the independent and dependent variables using simple linear regression analysis, and independent t-tests. To examine the correlation between indoor concentrations of certain species, Spearman correlation coefficients were used. ^ There were 126 houses sampled, with spring, n=43 (34.1%), and winter, n=42 (33.3%), representing the seasons with the most samples. The summer sample illustrated the highest geometric mean concentration of fungal spores, GM=5,816.5 relative to winter, fall and spring (GM=1,743.4, GM=3,683.5 and GM=2,507.4, respectively). In all seasons, greater concentrations of fungal spores were observed during the cloudy weather conditions. ^ The results indicated no statistically significant association between outdoor total airborne fungal spore concentration and total living room airborne fungal spore concentration (β = 0.095, p = 0.491). Second, living room surface mold levels were not associated with living room airborne fungal spore concentration, (β= 0.011, p = 0.669). Third, houses with and without previous water intrusion did not differ significantly with respect to either living room (t(111) = 0.710, p = 0.528) or bedroom (t(111) =1.673, p = 0.162) airborne fungal spore concentrations. Likewise houses with and without current water intrusion did not differ significantly with respect to living room (t(109)=0.716, p = 0.476) or bedroom (t(109) = 1.035, p = 0.304) airborne fungal spore concentration. Fourth, houses with and without current water intrusion did not differ significantly with respect to living room (χ 2 (5) = 5.61, p = 0.346), or bedroom (χ 2 (5) = 1.80, p = 0.875) surface mold levels. Fifth, the age of the house structure did not predict living room (β = 0.023, p = 0.102) and bedroom (β = 0.023, p = 0.065) surface mold levels nor living room (β = 0.002, p = 0.131) and bedroom (β = 0.001, p = 0.650) fungal spore airborne concentration. Sixth, in houses with visually observed mold growth there was statistically significant differences between the mean living room concentrations and mean outdoor concentrations for Cladosporium (t (107) = 11.73, p < 0.0001), Stachybotrys (t (106)=2.288, p = 0.024, and Nigrosporia (t (102) = 2.267, p = 0.025). Finally, there was a significant correlation between several living room fungal species pairs, namely, Cladosporium and Stachybotrys (r = 0.373, p <0.01, n=65), Curvularia and Aspergillus/Penicillium (r = 0.205, p < 0.05, n= 111)), Curvularia and Stachybotrys (r = 0.205, p < 0.05, n=111), Nigrospora and Chaetomium (r = 0.254, p < 0.01, n=105) and Stachybotrys and Nigrospora (r = 0.269, p < 0.01, n=105). ^ This study has demonstrated several positive findings, i.e., significant pairwise correlations of concentrations of several fungal species in living room air, and significant differences between indoor and outdoor concentrations of three fungal species in homes with visible mold. No association was observed between indoor and outdoor fungal spore concentrations. Neither living room nor bedroom airborne spore concentrations and surface mold levels were related to the age of the house or to water intrusion, either previous or current. Therefore, these findings suggest the need for evaluating additional parameters, as well as combinations of factors such as humidity, temperature, age of structure, ventilation, and room size to better understand the determinants of airborne fungal spore concentrations and surface mold levels in homes. ^

Nosocomial infections and their relationship to non-traditional risk factors in a medical intensive care unit

Background. Nosocomial infections are a source of concern for many hospitals in the United States and worldwide. These infections are associated with increased morbidity, mortality and hospital costs. Nosocomial infections occur in ICUs at a rate which is five times greater than those in general wards. Understanding the reasons for the higher rates can ultimately help reduce these infections. The literature has been weak in documenting a direct relationship between nosocomial infections and non-traditional risk factors, such as unit staffing or patient acuity.^ Objective. To examine the relationship, if any, between nosocomial infections and non-traditional risk factors. The potential non-traditional risk factors we studied were the patient acuity (which comprised of the mortality and illness rating of the patient), patient days for patients hospitalized in the ICU, and the patient to nurse ratio.^ Method. We conducted a secondary data analysis on patients hospitalized in the Medical Intensive Care Unit (MICU) of the Memorial Hermann- Texas Medical Center in Houston during the months of March 2008- May 2009. The average monthly values for the patient acuity (mortality and illness Diagnostic Related Group (DRG) scores), patient days for patients hospitalized in the ICU and average patient to nurse ratio were calculated during this time period. Active surveillance of Bloodstream Infections (BSIs), Urinary Tract Infections (UTIs) and Ventilator Associated Pneumonias (VAPs) was performed by Infection Control practitioners, who visited the MICU and performed a personal infection record for each patient. Spearman's rank correlation was performed to determine the relationship between these nosocomial infections and the non-traditional risk factors.^ Results. We found weak negative correlations between BSIs and two measures (illness and mortality DRG). We also found a weak negative correlation between UTI and unit staffing (patient to nurse ratio). The strongest positive correlation was found between illness DRG and mortality DRG, validating our methodology.^ Conclusion. From this analysis, we were able to infer that non-traditional risk factors do not appear to play a significant role in transmission of infection in the units we evaluated.^

Mitral valve prolapse and its relationship with stroke

The purpose of this study was to elucidate the relationship between mitral valve prolapse and stroke. A population-based historical cohort investigation was conducted among residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota who had an initial echocardiographic diagnosis of mitral valve prolapse from 1975 through 1989. This cohort (N = 1085) was followed for stroke outcomes using the resources of an operational medical record linkage system. There was an overall two-fold increase in the incidence of stroke among individuals with mitral valve prolapse relative to a standard population (standardized morbidity ratio = 2.12, 95% confidence limits = 1.33-3.21). When the data were partitioned by duration of follow-up from the diagnosis of mitral valve prolapse, or by the calendar years at echocardiographic diagnosis, respectively, the association between mitral valve prolapse and stroke was not modified. Mitral valve prolapse subjects 85 years and older were at highest increased risk of developing strokes relative to the general population (standardized morbidity ratio = 5.47, 95% confidence limits = 2.20-11.24). Coronary heart disease, atrial fibrillation, diabetes mellitus and hypertension, were unlikely to have confounded the association between mitral valve prolapse and stroke.^ The cumulative risk of first stroke among individuals initially diagnosed with mitral valve prolapse age 15 to 64 years, given survival to 15.2 years of follow-up, was 4.0%. The cumulative risk of first stroke among individuals initially diagnosed with mitral valve prolapse age 65 to 74 years, given survival to 11.2 years of follow-up, was 13.2%. The cumulative risk of first stroke among individuals initially diagnosed with mitral valve prolapse age 75 years and older, given survival to 6.7 years of follow-up, was 30.6%.^ Among individuals with mitral valve prolapse, age, diabetes, and atrial fibrillation were associated with an increased risk of stroke. Atrial fibrillation was associated with a four-fold rate of stroke and diabetes associated with a seven-fold rate of stroke.^ Findings from this research support the hypothesis that mitral valvular heart prolapse is linked with a stroke sequela. ^

SEVERITY OF IRON DEFICIENCY ANEMIA AND ITS RELATIONSHIP TO GROWTH AND MORBIDITY IN A POPULATION OF PRE-SCHOOLERS IN RURAL GUATEMALA (IRON DEFICIENCY, MORBIDITY, GROWTH)

The objectives of this study were to determine the nature of the relationship between severity of iron deficiency anemia, response to iron treatment, respiratory and gastrointestinal illness and weight change. Seventy-five pre-school children from rural Guatemala received daily oral iron therapy for an eleven week period, and were classified into one of three groups having different degrees of iron deficiency anemia. Anthropometric and biochemical data were collected prior and after iron treatment; morbidity data were collected throughout the period of treatment. The outcome variables were percentage weight change, percentage of total days ill with any type of symptom, percentage of total days ill with gastrointestinal symptoms, percentage of total days ill with respiratory symptoms, percentage of total days ill with combination syndrome symptoms. Age, sex and socio-economic status, were independent of any of the independent or outcome variables used. On the other hand, the level of hemoglobin covaried with the height of the children, the smallest children were the most severely anemic. The relationships between hemoglobin levels and weight change, frequency of morbidity (gastrointestinal, respiratory and combination syndrome) and total number of days ill with any symptomatology were investigated. No statistical significance was found in these analyses except when contrasting children with normal hemoglobin levels to iron deficient children, where the findings indicated the normal children experienced more gastrointestinal morbidity. The same relationship were again analyzed but including delta hemoglobin as covariate in the analysis, this latter one was found to be significant at 7% when the percentage of days ill from gastrointestinal morbidity was tested against the hemoglobin groups. The relationship found indicates that, all other covariates accounted for, the percentage of days ill from gastrointestinal morbidity will decrease approximately 1% for each 1% increase in delta of hemoglobin. ^

Objective assessment of the built environment and its relationship to physical activity and obesity

The role of physical activity in the promotion of individual and population health has been well documented in research and policy publications. Significant research activities have produced compelling evidence for the support of the positive association between physical activity and improved health. Despite the knowledge about these public health benefits of physical activity, over half of US adults do not engage in physical activity at levels consistent with public health recommendations. Just as physical inactivity is of significant public health concern in the US, the prevalence of obesity (and its attendant co-morbidities) is also increasing among US adults.^ Research suggests racial and ethnic disparities relevant to physical inactivity and obesity in the US. Various studies have shown more favorable outcomes among non-Hispanic whites when compared to other minority groups as far as physical activity and obesity are concerned. The health disparity issue is especially important because Mexican-Americans who are the fastest growing segment of the US population are disproportionately affected by physical inactivity and obesity by a significant margin (when compared to non-Hispanic whites), so addressing the physical inactivity and obesity issues in this group is of significant public health concern. ^ Although the evidence for health benefits of physical activity is substantial, various research questions remain on the potential motivators for engaging in physical activity. One area of emerging interest is the potential role that the built environment may play in facilitating or inhibiting physical activity.^ In this study, based on an ongoing research project of the Department of Epidemiology at the University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center, we examined the built environment, measured objectively through the use of geographical information systems (GIS), and its association with physical activity and obesity among a cohort of Mexican- Americans living in Harris County, Texas. The overall study hypothesis was that residing in dense and highly connected neighborhoods with mixed land-use is associated with residents’ increased participation in physical activity and lowered prevalence of obesity. We completed the following specific aims: (1) to generate a land-use profile of the study area and create a “walkability index” measure for each block group within the study area; (2) to compare the level of engagement in physical activity between study participants that reside in high walkability index block groups and those from low walkability block groups; (3) to compare the prevalence of obesity between study participants that reside in high walkability index block groups and those from low walkability block groups. ^ We successfully created the walkability index as a form of objective measure of the built environment for portions of Harris County, Texas. We used a variety of spatial and non-spatial dataset to generate the so called walkability index. We are not aware of previous scholastic work of this kind (construction of walkability index) in the Houston area. Our findings from the assessment of relationships among walkability index, physical activity and obesity suggest the following, that: (1) that attempts to convert people to being walkers through health promotion activities may be much easier in high-walkability neighborhoods, and very hard in low-walkability neighborhoods. Therefore, health promotion activities to get people to be active may require supportive environment, walkable in this case, and may not succeed otherwise; and (2) Overall, among individuals with less education, those in the high walkability index areas may be less obese (extreme) than those in the low walkability area. To the extent that this association can be substantiated, we – public health practitioners, urban designers, and policy experts – we may need to start thinking about ways to “retrofit” existing urban forms to conform to more walkable neighborhoods. Also, in this population especially, there may be the need to focus special attention on those with lower educational attainment.^

Using spatial linear models with SAR and CAR structure to examine Texas lung cancer incidence rates

Scholars have found that socioeconomic status was one of the key factors that influenced early-stage lung cancer incidence rates in a variety of regions. This thesis examined the association between median household income and lung cancer incidence rates in Texas counties. A total of 254 individual counties in Texas with corresponding lung cancer incidence rates from 2004 to 2008 and median household incomes in 2006 were collected from the National Cancer Institute Surveillance System. A simple linear model and spatial linear models with two structures, Simultaneous Autoregressive Structure (SAR) and Conditional Autoregressive Structure (CAR), were used to link median household income and lung cancer incidence rates in Texas. The residuals of the spatial linear models were analyzed with Moran's I and Geary's C statistics, and the statistical results were used to detect similar lung cancer incidence rate clusters and disease patterns in Texas.^

The structural and functional relationship of the p53 tumor suppressor protein

The tumor-suppressing function of p53 can be affected in a variety of manners. Here, we describe a novel mechanism of transformation by mutant p53. Previously, it had been believed that mutant p53 molecules transform cells by oligomerizing with wild-type p53 and inactivating it. However, we demonstrated that there exists an additional mechanism of inactivation of p53 available to p53 mutants. It involves sequestration of cofactors necessary to p53, and subsequent interruption of its transactivation and tumor suppression functions. The p53 amino or carboxyl termini, known to interact with a large number of cellular factors, can affect wild-type p53 in this manner. Although they are unable to oligomerize with wild-type p53, they transform cells containing p53, and inhibit its transactivation ability. In addition, they interrupt growth suppression by p53, but not RB, confirming that they specifically affect p53 function, rather than having a general growth-stimulatory phenomenon. Also, we have cloned a p53 tumor mutation which results in expression of the amino terminus of p53. This provides a means to study the factor-sequestration transforming mechanism in vivo. Additionally, we found that the published sequence of the mdm2 gene is in error. mdm2 is a gene intimately involved with p53, blocking its ability to transform cells. Finally, previous data had established the influence of cell-cycle status on p53 function. In growth-arrested cells, wild-type p53 expressed by a transgene cannot activate transcription, but if these cells are forced to cycle by addition of cyclin E, p53 once again becomes functional. In this study, we extend these findings by examining only those cells successfully transfected, using fluorescence-activated cell sorting. Our results support the previous data, that cyclin E pushes growth-arrested cells back into the cell cycle. In summary, we have demonstrated the potential importance of cofactor association and protein modification to the abilities of p53 to cause transcription activation and repression, inhibition of DNA replication and induction of DNA repair, and initiation of cell-cycle arrest and apoptosis. Further elucidation of these processes and their roles in tumor suppression will prove fascinating indeed. ^

Emergence of Asian GAPs and its relationship to global G.A.P.

Global G.A.P. is a one of the most influential private standards in the area of food safety and sustainability. With increasing impacts of Global G.A.P., many Asian countries have introduced the country versions of GAPs; China GAP, Japan GAP, Viet GAP, Thai GAP and ASEAN GAP. Each has been influenced by Global G.A.P. but ways of implementation, implementation bodies as well as focus differ from each other. This paper examines the development and motivation behind how the Asian GAPs have been introduced both from current situation and from historical perspectives. Then we compare current situation of different Asian GAPs.

Late Gothic German Vault Design Methods and Its Relationship with Spanish Ribbed Vaults

The arrival of European master masons to Burgos and Toledo during the mid-fifteenth century was essential for the promotion of the late Gothic ribbed vault design techniques in Spain. The Antigua Chapel in Seville Cathedral, designed by the Spanish master mason Simón de Colonia on 1497, provides an outstanding case study on this subject. This vault is characterized by the interlacing of the ribs near the springing, reflecting the influence of German ribbed vault designs. This paper analyses the relationship between German ribbed vaults and their design methods with those of Spanish ribbed vaults; with particular attention to the presence of ribs that cut through one another above the springing, materialized in the work of Simón de Colonia. This characteristic is reflected in some manuscripts in the German area, like the Wiener Sammlungen (15th-16th centuries) and the Codex Miniatus 3 (ca. 1560-1570), but no Spanish documents of the same period make reference to it.

Learning Analytics and Interactions in Virtual Learning Environments. A Comparative Study of Typologies and their Relationship with Academic Performance

Analysis of learning data (learning analytics) is a new research field with high growth potential. The main objective of Learning analytics is the analysis of data (interactions being the basic data unit) generated in virtual learning environments, in order to maximize the outcomes of the learning process; however, a consensus has not been reached yet on which interactions must be measured and what is their influence on learning outcomes. This research is grounded on the study of e-learning interaction typologies and their relationship with students? academic performance, by means of a comparative study between different interaction typologies (based on the agents involved, frequency of use and participation mode). The main conclusions are a) that classifications based on agents offer a better explanation of academic performance; and b) that each of the three typologies are able to explain academic performance in terms of some of their components (student-teacher and student-student interactions, evaluating students interactions and active interactions, respectively), with the other components being nonrelevant.

Transcriptional changes and oxidative stress associated with the synergistic interaction between potato virus X and potato virus Y and their relationship with symptom expression.

Many virus diseases of economic importance to agriculture result from mixtures of different pathogens invading the host at a given time. This contrasts with the relatively scarce studies available on the molecular events associated with virus---host interactions in mixed infections. Compared with single infections, co-infection of Nicotiana benthamiana with Potato virus X (PVX) and Potato virus Y (PVY) resulted in increased systemic symptoms (synergism) that led to necrosis of the newly emerging leaves and death of the plant. A comparative transcriptional analysis was undertaken to identify quantitative and qualitative differences in gene expression during this synergistic infection and correlate these changes with the severe symptoms it caused. Global transcription profiles of doubly infected leaves were compared with those from singly infected leaves using gene ontology enrichment analysis and metabolic pathway annotator software. Functional gene categories altered by the double infection comprise suites of genes regulated coordinately, which are associated with chloroplast functions (downregulated), protein synthesis and degradation (upregulated), carbohydrate metabolism (upregulated), and response to biotic stimulus and stress (upregulated). The expressions of reactive oxygen species?generating enzymes as well as several mitogen-activated protein kinases were also significantly induced. Accordingly, synergistic infection induced a severe oxidative stress in N. benthamiana leaves, as judged by increases in lipid peroxidation and by the generation of superoxide radicals in chloroplasts, which correlated with the misregulation of antioxidative genes in microarray data. Interestingly, expression of genes encoding oxylipin biosynthesis was uniquely upregulated by the synergistic infection. Virus-induced gene silencing of ?-dioxygenase1 delayed cell death during PVX?PVY infection.

Importance of canopy porosity into vineyard and the relationship with the grape maturity. Digital estimation method

In warm and dry climates, the use of porous systems should be required in order to allow a better leaf distribution inside the plant, causing more space in the clusters area and enhancing determined physiological processes so in the leaf (photosynthesis, v entilation, transpiration) as in berry (growth and maturation). Plant geometry indexes, yield and must composition have been studied in three different systems: sprawl with 12 shoots/m (S1); sprawl system with 18 shoots/m (S2) and vertical positioned syste m or VSP with 12 shoots/m (VSP1). Total leaf area increases as the crop load does, whoever surface area depends on to two factors: crop load and the training system (VSP vs. sprawl), which can provide differences in leaf exposure efficiencies. The main objective of this study was to validate digital photography measurements used to compare porosity differences among treatments and, as they affect plant microclimate and, therefore, yield and berry quality. Also, all previous studied indexes (LAI, SA, SFEr) tended to overestimate the relationship between exposed leaf surface and porosity of each treatment, but the use of digital method proved to be an effective tool in order to assess canopy porosity. Results showed that not positioned and free systems (sprawl) scored between 25- 50% more porosity in the clusters area than the fixed vertical system (VSP), which resulted in a better plant microclimate for test conditions, mainly by improving the exposure of internal clusters and internal canopy ventilation. On the other hand, higher crop load treatment (S2) showed a real increase in yield (16%) without any relevant change into must composition, even improving total anthocyanin content into berry during ripening