Extensive structural change of the envelope protein of dengue virus induced by a tuned ionic strength: conformational and energetic analyses

The Dengue has become a global public health threat, with over 100 million infections annually; to date there is no specific vaccine or any antiviral drug. The structures of the envelope (E) proteins of the four known serotype of the dengue virus (DENV) are already known, but there are insufficient molecular details of their structural behavior in solution in the distinct environmental conditions in which the DENVs are submitted, from the digestive tract of the mosquito up to its replication inside the host cell. Such detailed knowledge becomes important because of the multifunctional character of the E protein: it mediates the early events in cell entry, via receptor endocytosis and, as a class II protein, participates determinately in the process of membrane fusion. The proposed infection mechanism asserts that once in the endosome, at low pH, the E homodimers dissociate and insert into the endosomal lipid membrane, after an extensive conformational change, mainly on the relative arrangement of its three domains. In this work we employ all-atom explicit solvent Molecular Dynamics simulations to specify the thermodynamic conditions in that the E proteins are induced to experience extensive structural changes, such as during the process of reducing pH. We study the structural behavior of the E protein monomer at acid pH solution of distinct ionic strength. Extensive simulations are carried out with all the histidine residues in its full protonated form at four distinct ionic strengths. The results are analyzed in detail from structural and energetic perspectives, and the virtual protein movements are described by means of the principal component analyses. As the main result, we found that at acid pH and physiological ionic strength, the E protein suffers a major structural change; for lower or higher ionic strengths, the crystal structure is essentially maintained along of all extensive simulations. On the other hand, at basic pH, when all histidine residues are in the unprotonated form, the protein structure is very stable for ionic strengths ranging from 0 to 225 mM. Therefore, our findings support the hypothesis that the histidines constitute the hot points that induce configurational changes of E protein in acid pH, and give extra motivation to the development of new ideas for antivirus compound design.

Intervention Based Exclusively on Stage- Matched Printed EducationalMaterials Regarding Healthy Eating Does Not Result in Changes to Adolescents' Dietary Behavior

Purpose. To assess the impact of a six-month stage-based intervention on fruit and vegetable intake, regarding perceived benefits and barriers, and self-efficacy among adolescents. Design. Randomized treatment-control, pre-post design. Subjects/ Setting. Schools were randomized between control and experimental groups. 860 adolescents from ten public schools in Bras ' ilia, Federal District, Brazil were evaluated at baseline; 771 (81%) completed the study. Intervention. Experimental group received monthly magazines and newsletters aimed at promotion of healthy eating. Measures. Self-reported fruit and vegetable intake, stages of change, self-efficacy and decisional balance scores were evaluated at baseline and post-intervention in both groups. Analysis. The effectiveness of the intervention was evaluated using the analysis of covariance model (ANCOVA) and repeated measurement analysis by means of weighted least squares. Comparison between the proportions of adolescents who advanced through the stages during the intervention was performed using the Mantel-Haenszel chi-square test. Results. After adjusting for sex and age, study variables showed no modifications through the proposed intervention. There was no statistical difference in participant mobility in the intervention and control groups between the stages of change, throughout the study. Conclusion. A nutritional intervention based exclusively on distribution of stage-matched printed educational materials was insufficient to change adolescents' dietary behavior.

Eating behavior and nutritional status in patients who underwent coronary angioplasty

Introduction: The identification of stages of dietary change and the factors affecting food choices can direct more effective nutritional intervention against coronary heart disease progression. Objective: Identify the stages of change of eating behavior and its relation with nutritional status, food consumption and previous cardiovascular events in patients who underwent coronary angioplasty. Methods: A cross-sectional study with 200 hospitalized patients from a specialized cardiology hospital, after elective coronary angioplasty. They were applied an algorithm that identifies the provision of change of eating habits for a healthier pattern. Variables measured were stages of change of eating behavior, nutritional status, food consumption and cardiovascular events (previous myocardial infarction or angioplasty). It was realized comparison of averages by analysis of variance or Student's test and Chi-square test for qualitative variables. Value of significance was taken at 5%. Results: The patients were classified in the following stages: 36% maintenance, 26% preparation, 17% precontemplation, 12% action and 9% contemplation. It was observed higher cardiovascular events in maintenance/action group (p = 0.04), higher consumption of calories (p = 0.04), meat/eggs (p = 0.01) and sweets (p = 0.03) in preparation stage, comparing to maintenance group, and no association between nutritional status and stages of change (p = 0.13), although 62% of the individuals in maintenance stage were overweight. Conclusions: This work contributed to identifying the stages of change and conditions that favor changes in eating pattern. Even patients that classified themselves into the maintenance stage need to adjust their eating habits in order to reach a healthy weight.

How low-level laser therapy can change mechanical properties of cells.

Low level laser therapy is used as a treatment of several conditions, including inflammatory processes and wound healing. Possible changes in mechanical properties of cells, caused by illumination, are investigated with optical magnetic twisting cytometry (OMTC), which is a technique used to evaluate mechanical properties in cell culture. Ferromagnetic micro beads are bound to cell cytoskeleton, the beads are magnetized vertically and a horizontal twisting magnetic field is applied causing a torque that moves the beads and deforms the cell, the beads rotate and displace. Based on the lateral displacement of the beads, elastic shear and loss moduli are obtained. Samples of human bronchial epithelial cell culture were divided in two groups: one was illuminated with a 660 nm red laser, 30 mW power, 0.75 W/cm2 irradiance, during different time intervals, and the other one, the control group, was not illuminated. The values of the mechanical constants of the cells of the control group showed a tendency of increasing with the time out of the incubator. On the other hand, the illuminated group showed constancy on the behavior of both moduli, keeping the normal conditions of the cell culture. Those results indicate that illumination can induce cells to homeostasis, and OMTC is sensitive to observe departures from the steady conditions. Hence, OMTC is an important technique which can be used to aggregate knowledge on the light effect in cell cytoskeleton and even on the low level laser therapy mechanisms in inflammatory processes and/or wound healing.

How low-level laser therapy can change mechanical properties of cells.

Low level laser therapy is used as a treatment of several conditions, including inflammatory processes and wound healing. Possible changes in mechanical properties of cells, caused by illumination, are investigated with optical magnetic twisting cytometry (OMTC), which is a technique used to evaluate mechanical properties in cell culture. Ferromagnetic micro beads are bound to cell cytoskeleton, the beads are magnetized vertically and a horizontal twisting magnetic field is applied causing a torque that moves the beads and deforms the cell, the beads rotate and displace. Based on the lateral displacement of the beads, elastic shear and loss moduli are obtained. Samples of human bronchial epithelial cell culture were divided in two groups: one was illuminated with a 660 nm red laser, 30 mW power, 0.75 W/cm2 irradiance, during different time intervals, and the other one, the control group, was not illuminated. The values of the mechanical constants of the cells of the control group showed a tendency of increasing with the time out of the incubator. On the other hand, the illuminated group showed constancy on the behavior of both moduli, keeping the normal conditions of the cell culture. Those results indicate that illumination can induce cells to homeostasis, and OMTC is sensitive to observe departures from the steady conditions. Hence, OMTC is an important technique which can be used to aggregate knowledge on the light effect in cell cytoskeleton and even on the low level laser therapy mechanisms in inflammatory processes and/or wound healing.

Laboratory verification of predicted permanent deformation in asphalt materials following climate change.

In the past a change in temperature of 5°C most often occurred over intervals of thousands of years. According to estimates by the IPCC, in the XXI century is expected an increase in average temperatures in Europe between 1.8 and 4.0°C in the best case caused by emissions of carbon dioxide and other GHG from human activities. As well as on the environment and economic context, global warming will have effects even on road safety. Several studies have already shown how increasing temperature may cause a worsening of some types of road surface damages, especially rutting, a permanent deformation of the road structures consisting in the formation of a longitudinal depression in the wheelpath, mostly due to the rheological behavior of bitumen. This deformation evolves during the hot season because of the heating capacity of the asphalt layers, in fact, the road surface temperature is up to 24°C higher than air. In this thesis, through the use of Wheeltrack test, it was studied the behavior of some types of asphalt concrete mixtures subjected to fatigue testing at different temperatures. The objectives of this study are: to determine the strain variation of different bituminous mixture subjected to fatigue testing at different temperature conditions; to investigate the effect of aggregates, bitumen and mixtures’ characteristics on rutting. Samples were made in the laboratory mostly using an already prepared mixtures, the others preparing the asphalt concrete from the grading curve and bitumen content. The same procedure was performed for each specimen: preparation, compaction using the roller compactor, cooling and heating before the test. The tests were carried out at 40 - 50 - 60°C in order to obtain the evolution of deformation with temperature variation, except some mixtures for which the tests were carried out only at 50°C. In the elaboration of the results were considered testing parameters, component properties and the characteristics of the mixture. Among the testing parameters, temperature was varied for each sample. The mixtures responded to this variation with a different behavior (linear logarithmic and exponential) not directly correlated with the asphalt characteristics; the others parameters as load, passage frequency and test condition were kept constant. According to the results obtained, the main contribution to deformation is due to the type of binder used, it was found that the modified bitumen have a better response than the same mixtures containing traditional bitumen; to the porosity which affects negatively the behavior of the samples and to the homogeneity ceteris paribus. The granulometric composition did not seem to have interfered with the results. Overall has emerged at working temperature, a decisive importance of bitumen composition, than the other characteristics of the mixture, that tends to disappear with heating in favor of increased dependence of rutting resistance from the granulometric composition of the sample considered. In particular it is essential, rather than the mechanical characteristics of the binder, its chemical properties given by the polymeric modification. To confirm some considered results, the maximum bulk density and the air voids content were determined. Tests have been conducted in the laboratories of the Civil Engineering Department at NTNU in Trondheim according to European Standards.

Physical model of PD behavior and relevant damage growth from micro-cavities in polyethylene-based material under AC voltage

In the framework of developing defect-based life models, in which breakdown is explicitly associated with partial discharge (PD)-induced damage growth from a defect, ageing tests and PD measurements were carried out in the lab on polyethylene (PE) layered specimens containing artificial cavities. PD activity was monitored continuously during aging. A quasi-deterministic series of stages can be observed in the behavior of the main PD parameters (i.e. discharge repetition rate and amplitude). Phase-resolved PD patterns at various ageing stages were reproduced by numerical simulation which is based on a physical discharge model devoid of adaptive parameters. The evolution of the simulation parameters provides insight into the physical-chemical changes taking place at the dielectric/cavity interface during the aging process. PD activity shows similar time behavior under constant cavity gas volume and constant cavity gas pressure conditions, suggesting that the variation of PD parameters may not be attributed to the variation of the gas pressure. Brownish PD byproducts, consisting of oxygen containing moieties, and degradation pits were found at the dielectric/cavity interface. It is speculated that the change of PD activity is related to the composition of the cavity gas, as well as to the properties of dielectric/cavity interface.

The bursting behavior of gas slugs: laboratory and analytical insights into Strombolian volcanic eruptions.

The aim of this thesis is to study how explosive behavior and geophysical signals in a volcanic conduit are related to the development of overpressure in slug-driven eruptions. A first suite of laboratory experiments of gas slugs ascending in analogue conduits was performed. Slugs ascended into a range of analogue liquids and conduit diameters to allow proper scaling to the natural volcanoes. The geometrical variation of the slug in response to the explored variables was parameterised. Volume of gas slug and rheology of the liquid phase revealed the key parameters in controlling slug overpressure at bursting. Founded on these results, a theoretical model to calculate burst overpressure for slug-driven eruptions was developed. The dimensionless approach adopted allowed to apply the model to predict bursting pressure of slugs at Stromboli. Comparison of predicted values with measured data from Stromboli volcano showed that the model can explain the entire spectrum of observed eruptive styles at Stromboli – from low-energy puffing, through normal Strombolian eruptions, up to paroxysmal explosions – as manifestations of a single underlying physical process. Finally, another suite of laboratory experiments was performed to observe oscillatory pressure and forces variations generated during the expansion and bursting of gas slugs ascending in a conduit. Two end-member boundary conditions were imposed at the base of the pipe, simulating slug ascent in closed base (zero magma flux) and open base (constant flux) conduit. At the top of the pipe, a range of boundary conditions that are relevant at a volcanic vent were imposed, going from open to plugged vent. The results obtained illustrate that a change in boundary conditions in the conduit concur to affect the dynamic of slug expansion and burst: an upward flux at the base of the conduit attenuates the magnitude of the pressure transients, while a rheological stiffening in the top-most region of conduit changes dramatically the magnitude of the observed pressure transients, favoring a sudden, and more energetic pressure release into the overlying atmosphere. Finally, a discussion on the implication of changing boundary on the oscillatory processes generated at the volcanic scale is also given.

Analysis of charge-transport properties in GST materials for next generation phase-change memory devices

The quest for universal memory is driving the rapid development of memories with superior all-round capabilities in non-volatility, high speed, high endurance and low power. The memory subsystem accounts for a significant cost and power budget of a computer system. Current DRAM-based main memory systems are starting to hit the power and cost limit. To resolve this issue the industry is improving existing technologies such as Flash and exploring new ones. Among those new technologies is the Phase Change Memory (PCM), which overcomes some of the shortcomings of the Flash such as durability and scalability. This alternative non-volatile memory technology, which uses resistance contrast in phase-change materials, offers more density relative to DRAM, and can help to increase main memory capacity of future systems while remaining within the cost and power constraints. Chalcogenide materials can suitably be exploited for manufacturing phase-change memory devices. Charge transport in amorphous chalcogenide-GST used for memory devices is modeled using two contributions: hopping of trapped electrons and motion of band electrons in extended states. Crystalline GST exhibits an almost Ohmic I(V) curve. In contrast amorphous GST shows a high resistance at low biases while, above a threshold voltage, a transition takes place from a highly resistive to a conductive state, characterized by a negative differential-resistance behavior. A clear and complete understanding of the threshold behavior of the amorphous phase is fundamental for exploiting such materials in the fabrication of innovative nonvolatile memories. The type of feedback that produces the snapback phenomenon is described as a filamentation in energy that is controlled by electron–electron interactions between trapped electrons and band electrons. The model thus derived is implemented within a state-of-the-art simulator. An analytical version of the model is also derived and is useful for discussing the snapback behavior and the scaling properties of the device.

Identity Changes and Consumer Behavior. How Becoming Parents Changes Our Consumption Choices

This research aims at investigating the impact of the identity change on consumption. An identity change is defined as the acquisition of a new identity after a life change event. For instance after the birth of the first child the new identity as parent is acquired and a woman can define herself as a mother. Despite marketing research recognizes that individuals’ identity is unstable and susceptible to change, the investigation of the identity change is still in its infancy. Furthermore, marketing research did not investigate the contextual effect of the new as well as the old identity on individuals’ reaction toward identity-marketing. In order words, whether people show a more favorable reaction toward product related to their new or their old identities after an identity change is still unclear. In order to answer this question, five studies are conducted. Results show that when the new identity substitutes the old one, people show a more positive reaction toward new-identity related products, while when the new identity is added to the old ones, people show a more positive reaction toward old-identity related products. This is the case also when the new identity accounts for high levels of identification (study three) and when the old identity is squeezed by the new one (studies four and five). A new concept, the identity strain, is then introduced and discussed.

Climate change in Libya and desertification of Jifara Plain

The study was arranged to manifest its objectives through preceding it with an intro-duction. Particular attention was paid in the second part to detect the physical settings of the study area, together with an attempt to show the climatic characteristics in Libya. In the third part, observed temporal and spatial climate change in Libya was investigated through the trends of temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and cloud amount over the peri-ods (1946-2000), (1946-1975), and (1976-2000), comparing the results with the global scales. The forth part detected the natural and human causes of climate change concentrat-ing on the greenhouse effect. The potential impacts of climate change on Libya were ex-amined in the fifth chapter. As a case study, desertification of Jifara Plain was studied in the sixth part. In the seventh chapter, projections and mitigations of climate change and desertification were discussed. Ultimately, the main results and recommendations of the study were summarized. In order to carry through the objectives outlined above, the following methods and approaches were used: a simple linear regression analysis was computed to detect the trends of climatic parameters over time; a trend test based on a trend-to-noise-ratio was applied for detecting linear or non-linear trends; the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test for trend was used to reveal the behavior of the trends and their significance; PCA was applied to construct the all-Libya climatic parameters trends; aridity index after Walter-Lieth was shown for computing humid respectively arid months in Libya; correlation coefficient, (after Pearson) for detecting the teleconnection between sun spot numbers, NAOI, SOI, GHGs, and global warming, climate changes in Libya; aridity index, after De Martonne, to elaborate the trends of aridity in Jifara Plain; Geographical Information System and Re-mote Sensing techniques were applied to clarify the illustrations and to monitor desertifi-cation of Jifara Plain using the available satellite images MSS, TM, ETM+ and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). The results are explained by 88 tables, 96 figures and 10 photos. Temporal and spatial temperature changes in Libya indicated remarkably different an-nual and seasonal trends over the long observation period 1946-2000 and the short obser-vation periods 1946-1975 and 1976-2000. Trends of mean annual temperature were posi-tive at all study stations except at one from 1946-2000, negative trends prevailed at most stations from 1946-1975, while strongly positive trends were computed at all study stations from 1976-2000 corresponding with the global warming trend. Positive trends of mean minimum temperatures were observed at all reference stations from 1946-2000 and 1976-2000, while negative trends prevailed at most stations over the period 1946-1975. For mean maximum temperature, positive trends were shown from 1946-2000 and from 1976-2000 at most stations, while most trends were negative from 1946-1975. Minimum tem-peratures increased at nearly more than twice the rate of maximum temperatures at most stations. In respect of seasonal temperature, warming mostly occurred in summer and au-tumn in contrast to the global observations identifying warming mostly in winter and spring in both study periods. Precipitation across Libya is characterized by scanty and sporadically totals, as well as high intensities and very high spatial and temporal variabilities. From 1946-2000, large inter-annual and intra-annual variabilities were observed. Positive trends of annual precipi-tation totals have been observed from 1946-2000, negative trends from 1976-2000 at most stations. Variabilities of seasonal precipitation over Libya are more strikingly experienced from 1976-2000 than from 1951-1975 indicating a growing magnitude of climate change in more recent times. Negative trends of mean annual relative humidity were computed at eight stations, while positive trends prevailed at seven stations from 1946-2000. For the short observation period 1976-2000, positive trends were computed at most stations. Annual cloud amount totals decreased at most study stations in Libya over both long and short periods. Re-markably large spatial variations of climate changes were observed from north to south over Libya. Causes of climate change were discussed showing high correlation between tempera-ture increasing over Libya and CO2 emissions; weakly positive correlation between pre-cipitation and North Atlantic Oscillation index; negative correlation between temperature and sunspot numbers; negative correlation between precipitation over Libya and Southern Oscillation Index. The years 1992 and 1993 were shown as the coldest in the 1990s result-ing from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo, 1991. Libya is affected by climate change in many ways, in particular, crop production and food security, water resources, human health, population settlement and biodiversity. But the effects of climate change depend on its magnitude and the rate with which it occurs. Jifara Plain, located in northwestern Libya, has been seriously exposed to desertifica-tion as a result of climate change, landforms, overgrazing, over-cultivation and population growth. Soils have been degraded, vegetation cover disappeared and the groundwater wells were getting dry in many parts. The effect of desertification on Jifara Plain appears through reducing soil fertility and crop productivity, leading to long-term declines in agri-cultural yields, livestock yields, plant standing biomass, and plant biodiversity. Desertifi-cation has also significant implications on livestock industry and the national economy. Desertification accelerates migration from rural and nomadic areas to urban areas as the land cannot support the original inhabitants. In the absence of major shifts in policy, economic growth, energy prices, and con-sumer trends, climate change in Libya and desertification of Jifara Plain are expected to continue in the future. Libya cooperated with United Nations and other international organizations. It has signed and ratified a number of international and regional agreements which effectively established a policy framework for actions to mitigate climate change and combat deserti-fication. Libya has implemented several laws and legislative acts, with a number of ancil-lary and supplementary rules to regulate. Despite the current efforts and ongoing projects being undertaken in Libya in the field of climate change and desertification, urgent actions and projects are needed to mitigate climate change and combat desertification in the near future.

Responses to Central Oxotremorine and Scopolamine Support the Cholinergic Control of Male Mating Behavior in Hamsters

The responses of hamsters to intracranial injections of the cholinergic agonist oxotremorine (OXO) implicate cholinergic mechanisms in the medial preoptic area (MPOA) in the control of male mating behavior. To extend these observations, we ran three studies of responses to cholinergic drugs delivered singly or in combination to the vicinity of the MPOA. The first tested responses to OXO, confirming its ability to reduce the postejaculatory interval. The second complemented the first by examining responses to MPOA microinjections of the cholinergic antagonist scopolamine (SCO). These caused several changes revolving around intromission. These included increases in intromission frequency and ejaculation latency. They also included a change in the patterning of intromissions, marked by continuous strings without the usual separation by dismounts. The final study resembled the others in examining the effects of MPOA injections of OXO and SCO but focused on the ability of each drug to antagonize responses to the other. Most of the responses to OXO and SCO individually replicated earlier findings, though the measures examined here also permitted the description of effects on some noncopulatory sexual behaviors, specifically the male's inspection of the female. However, the most interesting results may be those suggesting asymmetry in the responses to the addition of the second drug: Whereas responses to OXO tended to be antagonized by SCO, OXO was less effective at counteracting responses to SCO. Though the explanation of this asymmetry is not completely clear, it is consistent with previous suggestions of differences in the affinities of these drugs for subtypes of muscarinic receptors. Therefore, it suggests that the cholinergic synapses and circuits controlling distinct elements of male behavior could differ in their dependence on these receptors. Copyright 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Altered Behavior in Bats Affected by White-Nose Syndrome

WNS-affected bats did so over similar time frames as WNSunaffected bats. The behaviors of bats with WNS did not change as drastically as expected. Thereseems to be little to no effect on their ability to fly/forage until much later stages of the disease when they are likely near death. WNS-affected bats are grooming more which could be altering the way they use energy reserves during hibernation possibly leading tostarvation and eventually death. The decreased likelihood of arousals in response to external cues may be the result of spending more energy during previous and increasingly frequent arousals. While it is clear that WNS does result in changes in behavior whether these changes are directly in response to fungal skin infection or to some other component of the syndrome such as decreased energy availability or loss of homeostasis is unknown. bat behavior, white-nose syndrome, behavior, video surveillance, arousal patterns White-Nose Syndrome (WNS) is a disease of hibernating bats caused by the fungal pathogen Geomyces destructans. The fungus, which was first noted in 2006, invades bats wings and other exposed membranes, eventually resulting in death. Researchers have yet to understand many aspects of this disease, including basic etiology and epidemiology. There is also a lack of information on how fungal infection may change the behavior of healthy bats during hibernation or how changes in behavior may influence disease progression. Based upon the physiological changes that are known to occur in affected bats, and upon anecdotal observations of aberrant behavior in these bats, I hypothesized that WNS would significantly change the behavior of the little brown myotis (Myotis lucifugus). My research examined the behavior of hibernating bats during arousals from torpor. I compared WNS-affected and unaffected bats, in the field and incaptivity, using motion-sensitive infrared cameras. Flight maneuverability and echolocation were also tested between WNS-affected and unaffected bats during arousalsfrom hibernation to detect changes in the bats' ability to perform basic locomotion or potentially catch insect prey. Lastly, hibernating bats were artificially disturbed and theirarousal patterns were monitored to examine changes in the response to external stimuli between WNS-affected and unaffected bats.Bats with WNS groomed for longer periods of time after arousing from torpor, both in the field and in captivity. They also engaged in longer periods of any sort of activity during these arousals. There were no changes in acoustical signaling during flight tests and changes in flight maneuverability were only found in bats were seen staging" near the entrance of the mine which is itself a unique behavior exhibited by affected bats. At this point these bats were likely near death and could barely fly at all. In response toexternal stimuli bats with WNS were less likely to arouse than unaffected bats. However when they did arouse WNS-affected bats did so over similar time frames as WNSunaffected bats. The behaviors of bats with WNS did not change as drastically as expected. Thereseems to be little to no effect on their ability to fly/forage until much later stages of the disease when they are likely near death. WNS-affected bats are grooming more which could be altering the way they use energy reserves during hibernation possibly leading tostarvation and eventually death. The decreased likelihood of arousals in response to external cues may be the result of spending more energy during previous and increasingly frequent arousals. While it is clear that WNS does result in changes in behavior whetherthese changes are directly in response to fungal skin infection or to some other component of the syndrome such as decreased energy availability or loss of homeostasis is unknown."

Global Change and the World's Mountains-Research Needs and Emerging Themes for Sustainable Development A Synthesis From the 2010 Perth II Conference

The conference on Global Change and the World’s Mountains held in Perth, Scotland, in 2010 offered a unique opportunity to analyze the state and progress of mountain research and its contribution to sustainable mountain development, as well as to reflect on required reorientations of research agendas. In this paper we provide the results of a three-step assessment of the research presented by 450 researchers from around the world. First, we determined the state of the art of mountain research and categorized it based on the analytical structure of the Global Land Project (GLP 2005). Second, we identified emerging themes for future research. Finally, we assessed the contribution of mountain research to sustainable development along the lines of the Grand Challenges in Global Sustainability Research (International Council for Science 2010). Analysis revealed that despite the growing recognition of the importance of more integrative research (inter- and transdisciplinary), the research community gathered in Perth still focuses on environmental drivers of change and on interactions within ecological systems. Only a small percentage of current research seeks to enhance understanding of social systems and of interactions between social and ecological systems. From the ecological systems perspective, a greater effort is needed to disentangle and assess different drivers of change and to investigate impacts on the rendering of ecosystem services. From the social systems perspective, significant shortcomings remain in understanding the characteristics, trends, and impacts of human movements to, within, and out of mountain areas as a form of global change. Likewise, sociocultural drivers affecting collective behavior as well as incentive systems devised by policy and decision makers are little understood and require more in-depth investigation. Both the complexity of coupled social– ecological systems and incomplete data sets hinder integrated systems research. Increased understanding of linkages and feedbacks between social and ecological systems will help to identify nonlinearities and thresholds (tipping points) in both system types. This presupposes effective collaboration between ecological and social sciences. Reflections on the Grand Challenges in Sustainability Research put forth by the International Council for Science (2010) reveal the need to intensify research on effective responses and innovations. This will help to achieve sustainable development in mountain regions while maintaining the core competence of mountain research in forecasting and observation.

Using water balance models to approximate the effects of climate change on spring catchment discharge : Mt. Hanang, Tanzania

This project addresses the potential impacts of changing climate on dry-season water storage and discharge from a small, mountain catchment in Tanzania. Villagers and water managers around the catchment have experienced worsening water scarcity and attribute it to increasing population and demand, but very little has been done to understand the physical characteristics and hydrological behavior of the spring catchment. The physical nature of the aquifer was characterized and water balance models were calibrated to discharge observations so as to be able to explore relative changes in aquifer storage resulting from climate changes. To characterize the shallow aquifer supplying water to the Jandu spring, water quality and geochemistry data were analyzed, discharge recession analysis was performed, and two water balance models were developed and tested. Jandu geochemistry suggests a shallow, meteorically-recharged aquifer system with short circulation times. Baseflow recession analysis showed that the catchment behavior could be represented by a linear storage model with an average recession constant of 0.151/month from 2004-2010. Two modified Thornthwaite-Mather Water Balance (TMWB) models were calibrated using historic rainfall and discharge data and shown to reproduce dry-season flows with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies between 0.86 and 0.91. The modified TMWB models were then used to examine the impacts of nineteen, perturbed climate scenarios to test the potential impacts of regional climate change on catchment storage during the dry season. Forcing the models with realistic scenarios for average monthly temperature, annual precipitation, and seasonal rainfall distribution demonstrated that even small climate changes might adversely impact aquifer storage conditions at the onset of the dry season. The scale of the change was dependent on the direction (increasing vs. decreasing) and magnitude of climate change (temperature and precipitation). This study demonstrates that small, mountain aquifer characterization is possible using simple water quality parameters, recession analysis can be integrated into modeling aquifer storage parameters, and water balance models can accurately reproduce dry-season discharges and might be useful tools to assess climate change impacts. However, uncertainty in current climate projections and lack of data for testing the predictive capabilities of the model beyond the present data set, make the forecasts of changes in discharge also uncertain. The hydrologic tools used herein offer promise for future research in understanding small, shallow, mountainous aquifers and could potentially be developed and used by water resource professionals to assess climatic influences on local hydrologic systems.