980 resultados para Autoregressive moving average (ARMA)


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This paper investigates quality of service (QoS) and resource productivity implications of transit route passenger loading and travel time. It highlights the value of occupancy load factor as a direct passenger comfort QoS measure. Automatic Fare Collection data for a premium radial bus route in Brisbane, Australia, is used to investigate time series correlation between occupancy load factor and passenger average travel time. Correlation is strong across the entire span of service in both directions. Passengers tend to be making longer, peak direction commuter trips under significantly less comfortable conditions than off-peak. The Transit Capacity and Quality of Service Manual uses segment based load factor as a measure of onboard loading comfort QoS. This paper provides additional insight into QoS by relating the two route based dimensions of occupancy load factor and passenger average travel time together in a two dimensional format, both from the passenger’s and operator’s perspectives. Future research will apply Value of Time to QoS measurement, reflecting perceived passenger comfort through crowding and average time spent onboard. This would also assist in transit service quality econometric modeling. The methodology can be readily applied in a practical setting where AFC data for fixed scheduled routes is available. The study outcomes also provide valuable research and development directions.

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This presentation investigates quality of service (QoS) and resource productivity implications of transit route passenger loading and travel time. It highlights the value of occupancy load factor as a direct passenger comfort QoS measure. Automatic Fare Collection data for a premium radial bus route in Brisbane, Australia, is used to investigate time series correlation between occupancy load factor and passenger average travel time. Correlation is strong across the entire span of service in both directions. Passengers tend to be making longer, peak direction commuter trips under significantly less comfortable conditions than off-peak. The Transit Capacity and Quality of Service Manual uses segment based load factor as a measure of onboard loading comfort QoS. This paper provides additional insight into QoS by relating the two route based dimensions of occupancy load factor and passenger average travel time together in a two dimensional format, both from the passenger’s and operator’s perspectives. Future research will apply Value of Time to QoS measurement, reflecting perceived passenger comfort through crowding and average time spent onboard. This would also assist in transit service quality econometric modeling. The methodology can be readily applied in a practical setting where AFC data for fixed scheduled routes is available. The study outcomes also provide valuable research and development directions.

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Background and Purpose: - This paper focuses on the learning culture within the high performance levels of rowing. In doing so, we explore the case of an individual’s learning as he moves across athletic, coaching and administrative functions. This exploration draws on a cultural learning framework and complementary theorisings related to reflexivity. Method - This study makes use of an intellectually, morally and collaboratively challenging approach whereby one member of the research team was also the sole participant of this study. The participant’s careers as a high performance athlete, coach and administrator, coupled with his experience in conducting empirical research presented a rare opportunity to engage in collaborative research (involving degrees of insider and outsider status for each of the research team). We acknowledge that others have looked to combine roles of coach / athlete / administrator with that of researcher however few (if any) have attempted to combine them all in one project. Moreover, coupled with the approach to reflexivity adopted in this study and the authorship contributions we consider this scholarly direction uncommon. Data were comprised of recorded research conversations, a subsequently constructed learning narrative, reflections on the narrative, a stimulated reflective piece from the participant, and a final (re)construction of the participant’s story. Accordingly, data were integrated through an iterative process of thematic analysis. Results - The cultural (i.e., the ways things get done) and structural (e.g., the rules and regulations) properties of high performance rowing were found to shape both the opportunities to be present (e.g., secure a place in the crew) and to learn (e.g., learn the skills required to perform at an Olympic level). However, the individual’s personal properties were brought to bear on re-shaping the constraints such that many limitations could be overcome. In keeping with the theory of learning cultures, the culture of rowing was found to position individuals (a coxswain in this case) differentially. In a similar manner, a range of structural features was found to be important in shaping the cultural and personal elements in performance contexts. For example, the ‘field of play’ was found to be important as a structural feature (i.e., inability of coach to communicate with athletes) in shaping the cultural and personal elements of learning in competition (e.g., positioning the coxswain as an in-boat coach and trusted crewmate). Finally, the cultural and structural elements in rowing appeared to be activated by the participant’s personal elements, most notably his orientation towards quality performance. Conclusion - The participant in this study was found to be driven by the project that he cares about most and at each turn he has bent his understanding of his sport back on itself to see if he can find opportunities to learn and subsequently explore ways to improve performance. The story here emphasises the importance of learner agency, and this is an aspect that has often been missing in recent theorising about learning. In this study, we find an agent using his ‘personal emergent powers to activate the resources in the culture and structure of his sport in an attempt to improve performance. We conclude from this account that this particular high performance rowing culture is one that provided support but nonetheless encouraged those involved, to ‘figure things out’ for themselves – be it as athletes, coaches and/or administrators.

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Currently, across dance studies, choreographies are usually discussed as representational of the choreographer, with little attention focused on the dancers who also bring the work into being. As well as devaluing the contribution that the dancer makes to the choreographic process, the dancer’s elision from mainstream discourse deprives the art form of a rich source of insight into the incorporating practices of dance. This practice-based research offers a new perspective on choreographic process through the experiential viewpoint of the participating dancer. It involves encounters with contemporary choreographers Rosemary Butcher (UK), John Jasperse (US), Jodi Melnick (US) and Liz Roche (Ire). Utilizing a mixed-mode research structure, it covers the creative process and performance of three solo dance pieces in Dublin in 2008, as well as an especially composed movement treatise, all of which are documented on the attached DVD. The main hypothesis presented is that the dancer possesses a moving identity which is a composite of past dance experience, anatomical structures and conditioned human movement. This is supported by explorations into critical theory on embodiment, including Pierre Bourdieu’s concept of ‘the habitus’. The moving identity is identified as accumulative, altering through encounters with new choreographic movement patterns in independent contemporary dance practice. The interior space of the dancer’s embodied experience is made explicit in chapter 3, through four discussions that outline the dancer’s creative labour in producing each choreographic work. Through adopting a postmodern critical perspective on human subjectivity, supported by Gilles Deleuze, Félix Guattari and Alain Badiou, among others, the thesis addresses the inherent challenges which face independent contemporary dancers within their multiple embodiments as they move between different choreographic processes. In identifying an emergent paradigmatic shift in the role of dancer within dance- making practices, this research forges a new direction that invites further dancer-led initiatives in practice-based research.

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Background The impact of socio-environmental factors on suicide has been examined in many studies. Few of them, however, have explored these associations from a spatial perspective, especially in assessing the association between meteorological factors and suicide. This study examined the association of meteorological and socio-demographic factors with suicide across small areas over different time periods. Methods Suicide, population and socio-demographic data (e.g., population of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders (ATSI), and unemployment rate (UNE) at the Local Government Area (LGA) level were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for the period of 1986 to 2005. Information on meteorological factors (rainfall, temperature and humidity) was supplied by Australian Bureau of Meteorology. A Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) Model was applied to explore the association of socio-demographic and meteorological factors with suicide across LGAs. Results In Model I (socio-demographic factors), proportion of ATSI and UNE were positively associated with suicide from 1996 to 2000 (Relative Risk (RR)ATSI = 1.0107, 95% Credible Interval (CI): 1.0062-1.0151; RRUNE = 1.0187, 95% CI: 1.0060-1.0315), and from 2001 to 2005 (RRATSI = 1.0126, 95% CI: 1.0076-1.0176; RRUNE = 1.0198, 95% CI: 1.0041-1.0354). Socio-Economic Index for Area (SEIFA) and IND, however, had negative associations with suicide between 1986 and 1990 (RRSEIFA = 0.9983, 95% CI: 0.9971-0.9995; RRATSI = 0.9914, 95% CI: 0.9848-0.9980). Model II (meteorological factors): a 1°C higher yearly mean temperature across LGAs increased the suicide rate by an average by 2.27% (95% CI: 0.73%, 3.82%) in 1996–2000, and 3.24% (95% CI: 1.26%, 5.21%) in 2001–2005. The associations between socio-demographic factors and suicide in Model III (socio-demographic and meteorological factors) were similar to those in Model I; but, there is no substantive association between climate and suicide in Model III. Conclusions Proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders, unemployment and temperature appeared to be statistically associated with of suicide incidence across LGAs among all selected variables, especially in recent years. The results indicated that socio-demographic factors played more important roles than meteorological factors in the spatial pattern of suicide incidence.

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In recent years, the practice of contemporary dancers has altered significantly in the transition from canonical choreographic vocabularies to a proliferation of choreographic signatures within mainstream and independent dance. Dancers are often required to collaborate creatively on the formation of choreographic material, thus engaging conceptually with emerging cultural paradigms. This book explores the co-creative practice of contemporary dancers solely from the point of view of the dancer. It reveals multiple dancing perspectives, drawn from interviews, current writing and evocative accounts from inside the choreographic process, illuminating the myriad ways that dancers contribute to the production of contemporary dance culture. A key insight of the book is that a dancer's signature way of being is a 'moving identity', which incorporates past dance experience, anatomical structures and conditioned human movement as a self-in-process. The moving identity is the movement signature that the dancer forms throughout a career path.

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Not a lot is known about most mental illness. Its triggers can rarely be established and nor can its aetiological dynamics, so it is hardly surprising that the accepted treatments for most mental illnesses are really strategies to manage the most overt symptoms. But with such a dearth of knowledge, how can worthy decisions be made about psychiatric interventions, especially given time and budgetary restrictions? This paper introduces a method, extrapolated from Salutogenics; the psycho-social theory of health introduced by Antonovsky in 1987. This method takes a normative stance (that psychiatric health care is for the betterment of psychiatric patients), and applies it to any context where there is a dearth of workable knowledge. In lieu of guiding evidence, the method identifies reasonable alternatives on the fly, enabling rational decisions to be made quickly with limited resources.

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While the indirect and direct cost of occupational musculoskeletal disorders (MSD) causes a significant burden on the health system, lower back pain (LBP) is associated with a significant portion of MSD. In Australia, the highest prevalence of MSD exists for health care workers, such as nurses. The digital human model (DHM) Siemens JACK was used to investigate if hospital bed pushing, a simple task and hazard that is commonly associated with LBP, can be simulated and ergonomically assessed in a virtual environment. It was found that while JACK has implemented a range of common physical work assessment methods, the simulation of dynamic bed pushing remains a challenge due to the complex interface between the floor and wheels, which can only be insufficiently modelle

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This study compares Value-at-Risk (VaR) measures for Australian banks over a period that includes the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) to determine whether the methodology and parameter selection are important for capital adequacy holdings that will ultimately support a bank in a crisis period. VaR methodology promoted under Basel II was largely criticised during the GFC for its failure to capture downside risk. However, results from this study indicate that 1-year parametric and historical models produce better measures of VaR than models with longer time frames. VaR estimates produced using Monte Carlo simulations show a high percentage of violations but with lower average magnitude of a violation when they occur. VaR estimates produced by the ARMA GARCH model also show a relatively high percentage of violations, however, the average magnitude of a violation is quite low. Our findings support the design of the revised Basel II VaR methodology which has also been adopted under Basel III.

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Driving while sleepy is associated with increased crash risk. Rumble strips are designed to alert a sleepy or inattentive driver when they deviate outside their driving lane. The current study sought to examine the effects of repeated rumble strip hits on levels of physiological and subjective sleepiness as well as simulated driving performance. In total, 36 regular shift workers drove a high-fidelity moving base simulator on a simulated road with rumble strips installed at the shoulder and centre line after a working a full night shift. The results show that on average, the first rumble strip occurred after 20 minutes of driving, with subsequent hits occurring 10 minutes later, with the last three occurring approximately every 5 minutes thereafter. Specifically, it was found that the first rumble strip hit reduced physiological sleepiness; however, subsequent hits did not increase alertness. Moreover, the results also demonstrate that increased subjective sleepiness levels, via the Karolinska Sleepiness Scale, were associated with a greater probability of hitting a rumble strip. The present results suggest that sleepiness is very resilient to even strongly arousing stimuli, with physiologicl and subjective sleepiness increasing over the duration of the drive, despite the interference by rumble strips.

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In this article, we investigate the complex relationship between concerns about children and young people’s exposure to cinema in 1920s Australia and the use of film in education. In part, the Royal Commission into the Moving Picture Industry in Australia aimed to ‘ascertain the effect and the extent of the power of film upon juveniles’ and Commissioners spoke to educationalists, psychologists, medical professions, police officers and parents to gain insight into the impacts of movies on children. Numerous issues were canvassed in the Commission hearings such as exposure to sexual content, ‘excesses’ in film content, children’s inability to concentrate at school following cinema attendance and the influence of cinema on youth crime. While the Commission ultimately suggested it was parents’ role to police children’s engagements with cinema, it did make recommendations for restricting children’s access to films with inappropriate themes. Meanwhile, the Commission was very positive about film’s educational role stating that ‘the advantage to be gained by the use of the cinematograph as an adjunct to educational methods should be assisted in every possible way by the Commonwealth’. We draw on the Commission’s minutes of evidence, the Commission report and newspaper articles form the 1920s to the 1940s to argue that the Commission provides valuable insight into the beginnings of the use of screen content in formal schooling, both as a resource across the curriculum and as a specific focus of education through film appreciation and, later, broader forms of media education. The article argues debates about screen entertainment and education rehearsed in the Commission are reflected today as parents, concerned citizens and educators ponder the dangers and potential of new media technologies and media content used by children and young people such as video games, social media and interactive content.

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This study proposes that the adoption process of complex-wide systems (e.g. cloud ERP) should be observed as multi-stage actions. Two theoretical lenses were utilised for this study with critical adoption factors identified through the theory of planned behaviour and the progression of each adoption factor observed through Ettlie's (1980) multi-stage adoption model. Together with a survey method, this study has employed data gathered from 162 decision-makers of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Using both linear and non-linear approaches for the data analysis, the study findings have shown that the level of importance for adoption factors changes across different adoption stages.

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This paper is the second in a two-part series that maps continuities and ruptures in conceptions of power and traces their effects in educational discourse on 'the child'. It delineates two post-Newtonian intellectual trajectories through which concepts of 'power' arrived at the theorization of 'the child': the paradoxical bio-physical inscriptions of human-ness that accompanied mechanistic worldviews and the explanations for social motion in political philosophy. The intersection of pedagogical theories with 'the child' and 'power' is further traced from the latter 1800s to the present, where a Foucaultian analytics of power-as-effects is reconsidered in regard to histories of motion. The analysis culminates in an examination of post-Newtonian (dis)continuities in the theorization of power, suggesting some productive paradoxes that inhabit turn of the 21st-century conceptualizations of the social.

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This is the first of two papers that map (dis)continuities in notions of power from Aristotle to Newton to Foucault. They trace the ways in which bio-physical conceptions of power became paraphrased in social science and deployed in educational discourse on the child and curriculum from post-Newtonian times to the present. The analyses suggest that, amid ruptures in the definition, role, location and meaning given 'power' historically in various 'physical' and 'social' cosmologies, the naming of 'power' has been dependent on 'physics', on the theorization of motion across 'Western' sciences. This first paper examines some (dis)continuities in regard to histories of motion and power from Aristotelian 'natural science' to Newtonian mechanics.