Intelligent decision support for family financial planning

In today’s financial markets characterized by constantly changing tax laws and increasingly complex transactions, the demand for family financial planning (FFP) services is rising dramatically. However, the current trend to develop advisory systems that focus mainly on the financial or investment side fails to consider the whole picture of FFP. Separating financial or investment advice from legal and accounting advice may result in conflicting advice or important omissions that could lead to users suffering financial loss. In this paper, we propose a conceptual model for FFP decision-making process, followed by a novel architecture to support an aggregated FFP decision process by utilizing intelligentagents and Web-services technology. A prototype system for supporting FFP decision is presented to demonstrate the advances of the proposed Web-service multi-agentsbased system architecture and business value.

Modelling financial time series with switching state space models

The deficiencies of stationary models applied to financial time series are well documented. A special form of non-stationarity, where the underlying generator switches between (approximately) stationary regimes, seems particularly appropriate for financial markets. We use a dynamic switching (modelled by a hidden Markov model) combined with a linear dynamical system in a hybrid switching state space model (SSSM) and discuss the practical details of training such models with a variational EM algorithm due to [Ghahramani and Hilton,1998]. The performance of the SSSM is evaluated on several financial data sets and it is shown to improve on a number of existing benchmark methods.

Dynamical local models for segmentation and prediction of financial time series

In the analysis and prediction of many real-world time series, the assumption of stationarity is not valid. A special form of non-stationarity, where the underlying generator switches between (approximately) stationary regimes, seems particularly appropriate for financial markets. We introduce a new model which combines a dynamic switching (controlled by a hidden Markov model) and a non-linear dynamical system. We show how to train this hybrid model in a maximum likelihood approach and evaluate its performance on both synthetic and financial data.

Have the GIPSI settled down? Breaks and multivariate stochastic volatility models for, and not against, the European financial integration

We investigate the integration of the European peripheral financial markets with Germany, France, and the UK using a combination of tests for structural breaks and return correlations derived from several multivariate stochastic volatility models. Our findings suggest that financial integration intensified in anticipation of the Euro, further strengthened by the EMU inception, and amplified in response to the 2007/2008 financial crisis. Hence, no evidence is found of decoupling of the equity markets in more troubled European countries from the core. Interestingly, the UK, despite staying outside the EMU, is not worse integrated with the GIPSI than Germany or France. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

A magyar fiatalok jellemzése pénzügyi attitűdjeik és magatartásuk mentén – Vizsgálat a felsőoktatásban tanulók pénzügyi attitűdjeiről és magatartásáról = Characterization of the Hungarian youth with their financial attitudes and behaviours – A survey about the financial behaviour and attitudes of students

A pénzügyi piacok és termékek egyre komplexebbé válnak, ami együtt jár a pénzügyeket illető információs szakadék mélyülésével is – a lakosság egyre kevésbé képes pénzügyeiről körültekintő döntéseket hozni. Jelen tanulmány a magyar felsőoktatásban tanuló fiatalokat pénzügyi attitűdjeik mentén szegmentálja és jellemzi, annak érdekében, hogy hozzájáruljon a pénzügyi kultúra szintjét növelő programok sikerességéhez, legyen az állami indíttatású (pénzügyi edukáció) vagy a versenyszféra által vezérelt. A vizsgált fiatalok alapvetően három csoportba sorolhatók: (1) Konzervatívak, (2) Lázadók és (3) Tapasztaltak. A Konzervatívakra a stabil morális értékrend, alacsony kockázatvállalási hajlandóság jellemző, céljaik között egyaránt találunk rövid és hosszú távúakat is – informáltságuk, és ebből eredően pénzügyi ismeretszintjük alacsony, a hitelekkel szembeni attitűdjük negatív. A Lázadók csoportjára az „Élj a mának!” magatartás a jellemző, vagyis rövid távú céljaik vannak, kevésbé tudatosak, pénzügyi ismeretszintjük alacsony, ugyanakkor nyitottak az újdonságokra és a kockázatvállalási szintjük magasabb a másik két csoporténál. A Tapasztaltak csoportjára a tudatosság és a pénzügyi megfontoltság a jellemző – pénzügyi ismeretszintjük magasabb a másik két csoporténál. Náluk a hosszú távú célok dominálnak, de alacsony kockázatvállalási hajlandóság mellett. _____ Financial markets and financial instruments have become more and more complex in the last decades. Unfortunately, financial literacy of population cannot keep up with the innovation activity of financial sector. By segmenting and describing Hungarian young adults along their financial attitudes, the aim of this study is to provide recommendations to the programs aiming to enhance the development of financial literacy. According to the authors’ results, 18-25 year-old young adults can be categorized as (1) conservatives, (2) rebels and (3) experienced. Conservatives can be characterized by stable moral and values, low risktaking willingness and inappropriate financial knowledge. Both short and long term goals can be explored among their preferences. Conservatives have negative attitude to bank loans. The rebels can be described by the ancient Latin saying: “Carpe Diem”. They have short-term goals and the future financial stability is not an issue for them – their financial literacy is low. However, rebels are open-minded and their risk-taking willingness is greater than the other two group members. Despite of the low level of risk-taking willingness, the highest level of financial literacy is showed by the experienced group. They have long-term goals and are able to receive information about complex financial instruments.

Essays on investment, growth and income distribution

In this dissertation, I examine both theoretically and empirically the relationship between stock prices and income distribution using an endogenous growth model with social status impatience.^ The theoretical part looks into how status impatience and current economic status jointly determine time preference, savings, future economic status, stock prices, growth and wealth distribution in the steady state. This work builds on Burgstaller and Karayalcin (1996).^ More specifically, I look at (i) the effects of the distribution of status impatience levels on the distribution of steady state assets, incomes and consumption and (ii) the effects of changes in relative levels of status impatience on stock prices. Therefore, from (i) and (ii), I derive the correlation between stock prices, incomes and asset distribution. Also, the analysis of the stack market is undertaken in the presence of adjustment costs to investments.^ The empirical chapter looks at (i) the correlation between income inequality and long run economic growth on the one hand and (ii) the correlation between stock market prices and income inequality on the other. The role of stock prices and social status is examined to better understand the forces that enable a country to grow overtime and to determine why output per capita varies across countries. The data are from Summers and Heston (1988), Barro and Wolf (1989), Alesina and Rodrik (1994), Global financial Database (1997) and the World Bank. Data for social status are collected through a primary sample survey on the internet. Twenty-five developed and developing countries are included in the sample.^ The model developed in this study was specified as a system of simultaneous equations, in which per capita growth rate and income inequality were endogenous variables. Additionally, stock price index and social status measures were also incorporated. The results indicate that income inequality is inversely related to economic growth. In addition, increase in income inequality arising from higher stock prices constrains growth. Moreover, where social status is determined by income levels, it influences long run growth. Therefore, these results support findings of Persson and Tabellini (1994) and Alesina and Rodrik (1994). ^

Essays on exchange rate economics

Exchange rate economics has achieved substantial development in the past few decades. Despite extensive research, a large number of unresolved problems remain in the exchange rate debate. This dissertation studied three puzzling issues aiming to improve our understanding of exchange rate behavior. Chapter Two used advanced econometric techniques to model and forecast exchange rate dynamics. Chapter Three and Chapter Four studied issues related to exchange rates using the theory of New Open Economy Macroeconomics. ^ Chapter Two empirically examined the short-run forecastability of nominal exchange rates. It analyzed important empirical regularities in daily exchange rates. Through a series of hypothesis tests, a best-fitting fractionally integrated GARCH model with skewed student-t error distribution was identified. The forecasting performance of the model was compared with that of a random walk model. Results supported the contention that nominal exchange rates seem to be unpredictable over the short run in the sense that the best-fitting model cannot beat the random walk model in forecasting exchange rate movements. ^ Chapter Three assessed the ability of dynamic general-equilibrium sticky-price monetary models to generate volatile foreign exchange risk premia. It developed a tractable two-country model where agents face a cash-in-advance constraint and set prices to the local market; the exogenous money supply process exhibits time-varying volatility. The model yielded approximate closed form solutions for risk premia and real exchange rates. Numerical results provided quantitative evidence that volatile risk premia can endogenously arise in a new open economy macroeconomic model. Thus, the model had potential to rationalize the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle. ^ Chapter Four sought to resolve the consumption-real exchange rate anomaly, which refers to the inability of most international macro models to generate negative cross-correlations between real exchange rates and relative consumption across two countries as observed in the data. While maintaining the assumption of complete asset markets, this chapter introduced endogenously segmented asset markets into a dynamic sticky-price monetary model. Simulation results showed that such a model could replicate the stylized fact that real exchange rates tend to move in an opposite direction with respect to relative consumption. ^

Essays on political economy

The first chapter analizes conditional assistance programs. They generate conflicting relationships between international financial institutions (IFIs) and member countries. The experience of IFIs with conditionality in the 1990s led them to allow countries more latitude in the design of their reform programs. A reformist government does not need conditionality and it is useless if it does not want to reform. A government that faces opposition may use conditionality and the help of pro-reform lobbies as a lever to counteract anti-reform groups and succeed in implementing reforms.^ The second chapter analizes economies saddled with taxes and regulations. I consider an economy in which many taxes, subsidies, and other distortionary restrictions are in place simultaneously. If I start from an inefficient laissez-faire equilibrium because of some domestic distortion, a small trade tax or subsidy can yield a first-order welfare improvement, even if the instrument itself creates distortions of its own. This may result in "welfare paradoxes". The purpose of the chapter is to quantify the welfare effects of changes in tax rates in a small open economy. I conduct the simulation in the context of an intertemporal utility maximization framework. I apply numerical methods to the model developed by Karayalcin. I introduce changes in the tax rates and quantify both the impact on welfare, consumption and foreign assets, and the path to the new steady-state values.^ The third chapter studies the role of stock markets and adjustment costs in the international transmission of supply shocks. The analysis of the transmission of a positive supply shock that originates in one of the countries shows that on impact the shock leads to an inmediate stock market boom enjoying the technological advance, while the other country suffers from depress stock market prices as demand for its equity declines. A period of adjustment begins culminating in a steady state capital and output level that is identical to the one before the shock. The the capital stock of one country undergoes a non-monotonic adjustment. The model is tested with plausible values of the variables and the numeric results confirm the predictions of the theory.^

A study of stock market linkages between the US and frontier countries

My dissertation investigates the financial linkages and transmission of economic shocks between the US and the smallest emerging markets (frontier markets). The first chapter sets up an empirical model that examines the impact of US market returns and conditional volatility on the returns and conditional volatilities of twenty-one frontier markets. The model is estimated via maximum likelihood; utilizes the GARCH model of errors, and is applied to daily country data from the MSCI Barra. We find limited, but statistically significant exposure of Frontier markets to shocks from the US. Our results suggest that it is not the lagged US market returns that have impact; rather it is the expected US market returns that influence frontier market returns The second chapter sets up an empirical time-varying parameter (TVP) model to explore the time-variation in the impact of mean US returns on mean Frontier market returns. The model utilizes the Kalman filter algorithm as well as the GARCH model of errors and is applied to daily country data from the MSCI Barra. The TVP model detects statistically significant time-variation in the impact of US returns and low, but statistically and quantitatively important impact of US market conditional volatility. The third chapter studies the risk-return relationship in twenty Frontier country stock markets by setting up an international version of the intertemporal capital asset pricing model. The systematic risk in this model comes from covariance of Frontier market stock index returns with world returns. Both the systematic risk and risk premium are time-varying in our model. We also incorporate own country variances as additional determinants of Frontier country returns. Our results suggest statistically significant impact of both world and own country risk in explaining Frontier country returns. Time-variation in the world risk premium is also found to be statistically significant for most Frontier market returns. However, own country risk is found to be quantitatively more important.

The effect of domestic credit in the economic *development process

A commonly held view is that creation of excessive domestic credit may lead to inflation problems, however, many economists uphold the possibility that, generous domestic credit under appropriate conditions will result in increases of output. This hypothesis is examined for Japan and Colombia for the period 1950-1993.^ Domestic credit theories are reviewed since the times of Thornton and Smith, until the recent times of Lewis, McKinnon, Stiglitz and of Japanese economists like K. Emi, Tachi R. and others. It is found that in Japan of the Post-War period, efficient financial markets and the decisive role of the government in orienting investment decisions seem to have influenced positively the effectiveness of domestic credit as an output-stimulating variable. On the contrary, in Colombia the absence of the above features seems to explain why domestic credit is not very effective as an output-stimulating variable.^ Multiple regression analyses show that domestic credit is a strong explanatory variable for output increases in Japan and a weak one for Colombia's case in the studied period. For Japan the correlation depicts a positive relationship between the two variables with a decreasing rate very similar to a typical production function. Moreover, the positive decreasing rate is confirmed if net domestic credit is used in the correlations. For Colombia a positive relationship is also found when accumulated domestic credit is used, but, if net domestic credit is the source of correlations, the positive decreasing rate is not obtained.^ Granger causality tests determined causality from domestic credit to output for Japan and no-causality for Colombia at the 1% significance level; the differences are explained by: (1) The low development level of the financial system in Colombia. (2) The nonexistence of consistent domestic credit policy to foster economic development. (3) The lack of an authoritative orientation in the allocation of financial resources and the nonexistence of long range industrialization programs in Colombia that could channel productively credit resources. For the system of equations relating domestic credit and exports, the Granger causality tests determined no-causality between domestic credit and exports for both Japan and Colombia also at the 1% significance level. ^

International Capital Flows and Monetary Policy Spillovers

This dissertation examines the drivers and implications of international capital flows. The overarching motivation is the observation that countries not at the centre of global financial markets are subject to considerable spillovers from centre countries, notably from their monetary policy. I present new empirical evidence on the determinants of the observed patterns of international capital flows and monetary policy spillovers, and study their effect on both financial markets and the real economy. In Chapter 2 I provide evidence on the determinants of a puzzling negative correlation observed between productivity growth and net capital inflows to developing and emerging market economies (EMEs) since 1980. By disaggregating net capital inflows into their gross components, I show that this negative correlation is explained by capital outflows related to purchases of very liquid assets from the fastest growing countries. My results suggest a desire for international portfolio diversification in liquid assets by fast growing countries is driving much of the original puzzle. In the reminder of my dissertation I pivot to study the foreign characteristics that drive international capital flows and monetary policy spillovers, with a particular focus on the role of unconventional monetary policy in the United States (U.S.). In Chapter 3 I show that a significant portion of the heterogeneity in EMEs' asset price adjustment following the quantitative easing operations by the Federal Reserve (the Fed) during 2008-2014 can be explained by the degree of bilateral capital market frictions between these countries and the U.S. This is true even after accounting for capital controls, exchange rate regimes, and domestic monetary policies. Chapter 4, co-authored with Michal Ksawery Popiel, studies unconventional monetary policy in a small open economy, looking specifically at the case of Canada since the global financial crisis. We quantify the effect Canadian unconventional monetary policy shocks had on the real economy, while carefully controlling for and quantifying spillovers from U.S. unconventional monetary policy. Our results indicate that the Bank of Canada's unconventional monetary policy increased Canadian output significantly from 2009-2010, but that spillovers from the Fed's policy were even more important for increasing Canadian output after 2008.

The Proposed Financial Transaction Tax – Extraterritorial Effect, Tax Evasion and Other Legal Problems Facing the Proposal

The main topic of this master’s thesis is the proposed EU directive on a financial transaction tax. Ten Member States which want to enact the directive by using enhanced cooperation are currently negotiating the contents of the proposal. This tax would be levied on specific products which are traded on the financial markets. As an example the transaction of stocks would be taxed at a percentage of 0.1 percent, and the transaction of derivatives at a percentage of 0.01 percent. The proposed financial transaction tax would enter into force in said ten countries but it would still have effects on those countries, which are not planning on participating in this taxation system. This is one of the main reasons why this tax has faced a lot of opposition in several European Union countries. The main legal problems the tax is predicted to have are tax evasion, double taxation, and extraterritorial effect. The Commission has stated that it is aiming to reach certain objectives with the financial transaction tax. These objectives are for example to stabilise the financial markets following the financial crisis, and to deter tax evasion. Commission has defended the planning of the financial transaction tax by stating that the tax is likely to reach its objectives. The planning of the financial transaction tax began already in 2011 when the Commission published the first draft of the proposal. Following this the proposal was last amended in 2013, but the participating Member States are currently still negotiating the contents of the proposal. The participating Member States published a statement in December 2015 in which they promised that there will be a decision made about the financial transaction tax by the end of June 2016.

The introduction of a financial transaction tax in Italy

Mestrado em Finanças

The Selection Process of Applications to the Portuguese Innovation Incentive System: Who Gets Financial Support?

Public policies to support entrepreneurship and innovation play a vital role when firms have difficulties in accessing external finance. However, some authors have found evidence of long-term inefficiency in subsidized firms (Bernini and Pelligrini, 2011; Cerqua and Pelligrini, 2014) and ineffectiveness of public funds (Jorge and Suárez, 2011). The aim of the paper is to assess the effectiveness in the selection process of applications to public financial support for stimulating innovation. Using a binary choice model, we investigate which factors influence the probability of obtaining public support for an innovative investment. The explanatory variables are connected to firm profile, the characteristics of the project and the macroeconomic environment. The analysis is based on the case study of the Portuguese Innovation.Incentive System (PIIS) and on the applications managed by the Alentejo Regional Operational Program in the period 2007 – 2013. The results show that the selection process is more focused on the expected impact of the project than on the firm’s past performance. Factors that influence the credit risk and the decision to grant a bank loan do not seem to influence the government evaluator regarding the funding of some projects. Past activities in R&D do not significantly affect the probability of having an application approved under the PIIS, whereas an increase in the number of patents and the number of skilled jobs are both relevant factors. Nevertheless, some evidence of firms’ short-term inefficiency was found, in that receiving public financial support is linked to a smaller increase in productivity compared to non-approved firm applications. At the macroeconomic level, periods with a higher cost of capital in financial markets are linked to a greater probability of getting an application for public support approved, which could be associated with the effectiveness of public support in correcting market failings.

Regulating FinTech: The perspectives of law, economics, and technology

FinTech (financial technology, ‘‘FinTech’’) is a double-edged sword as it brings both benefits and risks. This study appraised FinTech’s technological nature that brings changes in complexity in modern financial markets to identify the information deficits and its undesirable outcomes. Besides, as FinTech is still developing, the information regarding, for instance, whether and how to apply regulation may be insufficient for both regulators and those regulated. More one-size-fits-all regulation might accordingly be adopted, thereby resulting in the adverse selection. Through the lens of both law and economics and law and technology, this study suggested AFR (adaptive financial regulation, ‘‘AFR’’) of FinTech to solve the underlying pacing issue. AFR is dynamic, enabling regulatory adjustments and learning. Exploring and collecting information through experiments and learning from experiments are the core of AFR. FinTech regulatory sandboxes epitomize AFR. This study chose Taiwan as a case study. This study found several barriers to adaptive and effective FinTech regulation. Unduly emphasizing consumer protection and the innovation entry criterion by improperly imposing limits on the entry into sandboxes, ignoring post-sandbox mechanisms, and relying on detailed, specific and prescriptive rules to formulate sandboxes are examples. To solve these barriers, this study proposed several solutions by looking into the experiences in other jurisdictions and analyzing. First, striking a balance between encouraging innovation and ensuring financial stability and consumer protection is indispensable. Second, entry to sandboxes should be facilitated by improving the selection criteria. Third, adhering to realizing regulatory adjustment and learning to adapt regulation to technology, this study argued that systematic post-sandbox mechanisms should be established. Fourth, this study recommended “more principles-based sandboxes”. Principles rather than rules should be the base on which sandboxes or FinTech regulation are established. Having principles could provide more flexibility, being easier to adjust and adapt, and better at avoiding.