Classes sociais e eleições presidenciais no Brasil contemporâneo (2002-2010)

This work aims to analyze, in terms of class, the social composition of the constituency of the presidential candidates of the Workers Party in 2002, 2006 and 2010 elections. Such research object is constructed from a preliminary critical debate with recent Brazilian electoral studies, especially the literature on the infl uence of social programs on voting and Singer’s formulations about the lulismo phenomenon. Incorporating advances and pointing out gaps in such research efforts, is formulated a roadmap for empirical research constituted of three key elements - the measure ment of the dimensions of class structure in Brazilian capitalism; the observation of material interests related to the constituents locations of such structure; the development of measures of association between the insertion in class groupings and indivi dual voting behavior. Based on the neo - Marxist approach of class analysis, especially as formulated by Wright, it is made an adaptation of the typology formulated by such approach (mainly developed by Santos to the Brazilian case) to the data available fro m databases of censuses of 2000 and 2010. This theoretical construct reveals that during the period considered for the analysis, the structure of class - relations in Brazil became more proletarized and consequently had a decrease of the dimensions of the de stitute class locations. In addition, it was found, in relation to the objective class interests, widespread increments of economic welfare that allowed advances in relation to the material conditions of the proletariat, without, however, incurring losses to the privileged class positions. Such changes in the structural sphere focused in various ways on the political arena. Based on an adaptation to electoral analysis of the concept of "class formation", also formulated by Wright, associated with the use of techniques of ecological inference (especially those proposed by King and associates), it was possible to draw up an overview of class voting in period studied. As main results, three general patterns of individual voting behavior, related to each of the three analyzed class groupings were identified - a contraposition against PT candidates, by voters in privileged class locations; the adhesion, recurring throughout the study period, of workers to Lula and Dilma Rousseff; a favorable electoral shift unde rtaken by economically deprived voters in favor of those candidatures in the 2006 election.

O comportamento eleitoral da nova classe trabalhadora no Rio Grande do Norte 2014: ideologia, avaliação de governo e voto

This thesis investigates the voting behavior of the fractions of the new working class in Rio Grande do Norte, more specifically in the cities of Natal, Mossoró and Caicó, from the presidential election of 2014. This research examined the ideology, the evaluation of government and guidance the vote of a portion of the working classes of RN voters. In Brazil, from 2003, socio-economic change has occurred perceptibly, especially in a part of the working classes who ascended socially and switched to the "C economic class." Thus, there was this period, a significant expansion of this social stratum. The expansion of the "class C" in the past decade in Brazil raised the academic debate and in the media about the emergence of a "new middle class". Neri (2008) termed the "class C" of the "new middle class" and that will be the central part of their studies. But the debate on the "new middle class" can not be simplistic to the point of considering that social mobility, the main variable income, entered this segment of the population in the middle class, because it has different specificities of the popular classes. To understand this phenomenon, the income variable was outdated, adding the importance of ownership of the means of production, control of labor power and the symbolic values in the division of social classes resulting in three fractions of the new working class: the management positions, non-heads and small fighters. In this study, using as a complement to the sociological approach (ideologies and social classes) and the performance evaluation was identified that the new working class (heads) mainly reproduced the ideological and political positioning of the middle class, resulting in the rejection of PT governments (2003-2014) and it’s social, compensatory and redistributive policies. From what has been seen, the new working class (chiefs) approaches the ideological and political behavior of the middle class that will reflect in their electoral choices and class interests. The new working class (not heads and small fighters who voted in the situation) because of its classist and ideological interests approached the Workers' Party positively evaluating the Lula-Dilma governments (2003-2014) due to the implementation of compensatory policies, and redistributive programs government turned to the popular classes. In a counterpoint, the voters of the new working class (not heads and small fighters) who voted null, reproduced the discourse of mainstream media and the middle class about the rejection of compensatory policies, redistribution and government programs of Lula-Dilma governments, and consequently they disapproved of the government Dilma and her candidacy.

PROPAGANDA ELEITORAL NA DEMOCRACIA MIDIÁTICA: A VITÓRIA DA EMOÇÃO NA ELEIÇÃO PRESIDENCIAL DE 2014 NO BRASIL

Essa pesquisa tem como objeto a comunicação política com foco na propaganda eleitoral, no contexto da democracia midiática. Partindo deste princípio, delineia-se o problema de pesquisa: estudar como a propaganda eleitoral tem se apropriado do contexto da democracia midiática para expor suas mensagens, o uso entre a razão e a emoção, a venda de sonhos ao eleitor entre outros assuntos como as críticas ao adversário e as promessas que realizam. O objetivo da pesquisa é destacar os tipos de conteúdos elaborados para serem transmitidos aos eleitores que assistem ao horário eleitoral gratuito, analisar os argumentos, a qualidade e o teor de tais veiculações, assim como destacar as distinções entre eles, avaliando assim sua efetividade, suas principais características, o que os diferenciava e quais os recursos que usavam para atrair a atenção e o voto dos eleitores. A metodologia adotada foi a análise de conteúdo, uma vez que se deseja compreender quais são os principais sinais e características definidos pelos partidos e pelos candidatos no momento de serem divulgados. Foram definidas seis categorias para a análise de dez vídeos do horário eleitoral gratuito na televisão dos três principais candidatos, tanto do primeiro, quanto do segundo turno. Conclui-se que a candidata Dilma Rousseff foi a que mais aproveitou de todos os artifícios estratégicos da comunicação política, da propaganda eleitoral, apropriada da democracia midiática, com forte apelo emotivo nas categorias analisadas, resultando em uma vitória apertada, a mais disputada até hoje, porém, de resultado positivo para a campanha de reeleição da presidente

Women's Equality Day rally

General note: Title and date provided by Bettye Lane.

Electoral Volatility, Political Sophistication, Trust and Efficacy

In this article we investigate voter volatility and analyze the causes and motives of switching vote intentions. We test two main sets of variables linked to volatility in literature; political sophistication and ‘political (dis)satisfaction’. Results show that voters with low levels of political efficacy tend to switch more often, both within a campaign and between elections. In the analysis we differentiate between campaign volatility and inter-election volatility and by doing so show that the dynamics of a campaign have a profound impact on volatility. The campaign period is when the lowly sophisticated switch their vote intention. Those with higher levels of interest in politics have switched their intention before the campaign has started. The data for this analysis are from the three wave PartiRep Belgian Election Study (2009).

Age, Period and Cohort effects in the Decline of Party Identification in Germany

Party identification traditionally is seen as an important linkage mechanism, connecting voters to the party system. Previous analyses have suggested that the level of party identity is in decline in Germany, and in this article, we first expand previous observations with more recent data. These suggest that the erosion of party identity continues up to the present time. An age-period-cohort analysis of the panel data of the SOEP panel suggests that period effects are significantly negative. Furthermore, it can be observed that throughout the 1992-2009 observation period, education level and political interest have become more important determinants of party identity. Contrary to some of the literature, therefore, it can be shown that the loss of party identity is concentrated among groups with lower levels of political sophistication, indicating that the socio-economic profile of the group with a sense of party identification has become more distinct compared to the population as a whole. In the discussion, we investigate the theoretical and democratic consequences of this trend.

Economic Policy Voting and Incumbency: Unemployment in Western Europe

The economic voting literature has been dominated by the incumbency-oriented hypothesis, where voters reward or punish government at the ballot box according to economic performance. The alternative, policy-oriented hypothesis, where voters favor parties closest to their issue position, has been neglected in this literature. We explore policy voting with respect to an archetypal economic policy issue – unemployment. Voters who favor lower unemployment should tend to vote for left parties, since they “own” the issue. Examining a large time-series cross-sectional (TSCS) pool of Western European nations, we find some evidence for economic policy voting. However, it exists in a form conditioned by incumbency. According to varied tests, left incumbents actually experience a net electoral cost, if the unemployment rate climbs under their regime. Incumbency, then, serves to break any natural economic policy advantage that might accrue to the left due to the unemployment issue.

Election Forecasting under Opaque Conditions

Election forecasting models assume retrospective economic voting and clear mechanisms of accountability. Previous research indeed indicates that incumbent political parties are being held accountable for the state of the economy. In this article we develop a ‘hard case’ for the assumptions of election forecasting models. Belgium is a multiparty system with perennial coalition governments. Furthermore, Belgium has two completely segregated party systems (Dutch and French language). Since the prime minister during the period 1974-2011 has always been a Dutch language politician, French language voters could not even vote for the prime minister, so this cognitive shortcut to establish political accountability is not available. Results of an analysis for the French speaking parties (1981-2010) show that even in these conditions of opaque accountability, retrospective economic voting occurs as election results respond to indicators with regard to GDP and unemployment levels. Party membership figures can be used to model the popularity function in election forecasting.

Punishing Local Incumbents for the Local Economy

After decennia of research on economic voting, it is now established that the state of the economy affects voting behaviour. Nevertheless, this conclusion is the result of a focus on predominantly national-level economies and national-level elections. In this paper, we show that at a local level as well, mechanisms of accountability linked to the economy are at work. The local economic context affected voting behaviour in the 2012 Belgian municipal elections, with a stronger increase of unemployment rates in their municipality significantly decreasing the probability that voters choose an incumbent party. Additionally, we observe that voters are not opportunistically voting for incumbents who lower tax rates. Instead, voters seem to be holding local incumbents accountable for local economic conditions. We hence conclude that voters care about economic outcomes, not about what specific policies are implemented to reach these outcomes.

Institutional Persistence in Eastern Europe: Economic and Political Legacies of Empires and Communism

This dissertation seeks to advance our understanding of the roles that institutions play in economic development. How do institutions evolve? What mechanisms are responsible for their persistence? What effects do they have on economic development?

I address these questions using historical and contemporary data from Eastern Europe and Russia. This area is relatively understudied by development economists. It also has a very interesting history. For one thing, for several centuries it was divided between different empires. For another, it experienced wars and socialism in the 20th century. I use some of these exogenous shocks as quasi-natural social experiments to study the institutional transformations and its effects on economic development both in the short and long run.

This first chapter explores whether economic, social, and political institutions vary in their resistance to policies designed to remove them. The empirical context for the analysis is Romania from 1690 to the 2000s. Romania represents an excellent laboratory for studying the persistence of different types of historical institutional legacies. In the 18th and 19th centuries, Romania was split between the Habsburg and Ottoman Empires, where political and economic institutions differed. The Habsburgs imposed less extractive institutions relative to the Ottomans: stronger rule of law, a more stable and predictable state, a more developed civil society, and less corruption. In the 20th century, the Romanian Communist regime tried deliberately to homogenize the country along all relevant dimensions. It was only partially successful. Using a regression discontinuity design, I document the persistence of economic outcomes, social capital, and political attitudes. First, I document remarkable convergence in urbanization, education, unemployment, and income between the two former empires. Second, regarding social capital, no significant differences in organizational membership, trust in bureaucracy, and corruption persist today. Finally, even though the Communists tried to change all political attitudes, significant discontinuities exist in current voting behavior at the former Habsburg-Ottoman border. Using data from the parliamentary elections of 1996-2008, I find that former Habsburg rule decreases by around 6 percentage points the vote share of the major post-Communist left party and increases by around 2 and 5 percentage points the vote shares of the main anti-Communist and liberal parties, respectively.

The second chapter investigates the effects of Stalin’s mass deportations on distrust in central authority. Four deported ethnic groups were not rehabilitated after Stalin’s death; they remained in permanent exile until the disintegration of the Soviet Union. This allows one to distinguish between the effects of the groups that returned to their homelands and those of the groups that were not allowed to return. Using regional data from the 1991 referendum on the future of the Soviet Union, I find that deportations have a negative interim effect on trust in central authority in both the regions of destination and those of origin. The effect is stronger for ethnic groups that remained in permanent exile in the destination regions. Using data from the Life in Transition Survey, the chapter also documents a long-term effect of deportations in the destination regions.

The third chapter studies the short-term effect of Russian colonization of Central Asia on economic development. I use data on the regions of origin of Russian settlers and push factors to construct an instrument for Russian migration to Central Asia. This instrument allows me to interpret the outcomes causally. The main finding is that the massive influx of Russians into the region during the 1897-1926 period had a significant positive effect on indigenous literacy. The effect is stronger for men and in rural areas. Evidently, interactions between natives and Russians through the paid labor market was an important mechanism of human capital transmission in the context of colonization.

The findings of these chapters provide additional evidence that history and institutions do matter for economic development. Moreover, the dissertation also illuminates the relative persistence of institutions. In particular, political and social capital legacies of institutions might outlast economic legacies. I find that most economic differences between the former empires in Romania have disappeared. By the same token, there are significant discontinuities in political outcomes. People in former Habsburg Romania provide greater support for liberalization, privatization, and market economy, whereas voters in Ottoman Romania vote more for redistribution and government control over the economy.

In the former Soviet Union, Stalin’s deportations during World War II have a long-term negative effect on social capital. Today’s residents of the destination regions of deportations show significantly lower levels of trust in central authority. This is despite the fact that the Communist regime tried to eliminate any source of opposition and used propaganda to homogenize people’s political and social attitudes towards the authorities. In Central Asia, the influx of Russian settlers had a positive short-term effect on human capital of indigenous population by the 1920s, which also might have persisted over time.

From a development perspective, these findings stress the importance of institutions for future paths of development. Even if past institutional differences are not apparent for a certain period of time, as was the case with the former Communist countries, they can polarize society later on, hampering economic development in the long run. Different institutions in the past, which do not exist anymore, can thus contribute to current political instability and animosity.

Racism, nationalism and right-wing extremism online: The Austrian Presidential Election 2016 on Facebook

Thee 2016 Austrian presidential election saw a run-o between the Green party candidate Alexander Van der Bellen and the Freedom Party of Austria’s (FPÖ) far-right candidate Norbert Hofer. This paper asks: How did voters of Hofer express their support on Facebook? It presents the results of a qualitative ideology analysis of 6755 comments about the presidential election posted on the Facebook pages of FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache and FPÖ candidate Hofer. The results reveal insights into the contemporary political role of the online leadership ideology, online nationalism, new racism online, the friend/enemy-scheme online, and online militancy. Right-wing extremism 2.0 is a complex problem that stands in the context of contemporary crises and demagoguery.

The Electoral Rise of Populist Radical Right Parties in Europe: Ideological Parameters and Social Motivations

Populist radical right parties have become major political actors in Europe. This paper analyses the path and the different phases that have led them from the fringes of public debate to their present signifi cance, which is based on their capacity to attract electoral support and infl uence the political agendas in their respective countries. Besides, an analysis of the core ideological beliefs of these parties, and of the topics on which their mobilization capacity rests, is provided, as well as of the type of voters that are attracted by them. Finally, the authors discuss the meaning and impact of the growing popularity of the ideas and proposals put forward by the populist radical right parties.

Circular migration and the Internet: The role of social networks in the sociocultural context of Mexican residents in Barcelona

This work focuses on the study of the circular migration between America and Europe, particularly in the discussion about knowledge transfer and the way that social networks reconfigure the form of information distribution among people, that due to labor and academic issues have left their own country. The main purpose of this work is to study the impact of social media use in migration flows between Mexico and Spain, more specifically the use by Mexican migrants who have moved for  multiple years principally for educational purposes and then have returned to their respective locations in Mexico seeking to integrate themselves into the labor market. Our data collection concentrated exclusively on a group created on Facebook by Mexicans who mostly reside in Barcelona, Spain or wish to travel to the city for economic, educational or tourist reasons.  The results of this research show that while social networks are spaces for exchange and integration, there is a clear tendency by this group to "narrow lines" and to look back to their homeland, slowing the process of opening socially in their new context.