989 resultados para time dependence
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Background. Whether current criteria used to define nicotine dependence are informative for genetic research is an important empirical question. The authors used items of the DSM-IV and of the Heaviness of Smoking Index to characterize the nicotine dependence phenotype and to identify salient symptoms in a genetically informative community sample of Australian young adult female and mate twins. Method. Phenotypic and genetic factor analyses were performed on nine dependence symptoms (the seven DSM-IV substance dependence criteria and the two Heaviness of Smoking Index (HSI) items derived from the Fagerstrom Tolerance Questionnaire, time to first cigarette in the morning and number of cigarettes smoked per day). Phenotypic and genetic analyses were restricted to ever smokers. Results. Phenotypic nicotine dependence symptom covariation was best captured by two factors with a similar pattern of factor loadings for women and men. In genetic factor analysis item covariation was best captured by two genetic but one shared environmental factor for both women and men; however, item factor loadings differed by gender. All nicotine dependence symptoms were substantially heritable, except for the DSM-IV criterion of 'giving up or reducing important activities in order to smoke', which was weakly familial. Conclusions. The salient behavioral indices of nicotine dependence are similar for women and men. DSM-IV criteria of tolerance, withdrawal, and experiencing difficulty quitting and HSI items time to first cigarette in the morning and number of cigarettes smoked per day may represent the most highly heritable symptoms of nicotine dependence for both women and men.
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In the United States and several other countries., the development of population viability analyses (PVA) is a legal requirement of any species survival plan developed for threatened and endangered species. Despite the importance of pathogens in natural populations, little attention has been given to host-pathogen dynamics in PVA. To study the effect of infectious pathogens on extinction risk estimates generated from PVA, we review and synthesize the relevance of host-pathogen dynamics in analyses of extinction risk. We then develop a stochastic, density-dependent host-parasite model to investigate the effects of disease on the persistence of endangered populations. We show that this model converges on a Ricker model of density dependence under a suite of limiting assumptions, including. a high probability that epidemics will arrive and occur. Using this modeling framework, we then quantify: (1) dynamic differences between time series generated by disease and Ricker processes with the same parameters; (2) observed probabilities of quasi-extinction for populations exposed to disease or self-limitation; and (3) bias in probabilities of quasi-extinction estimated by density-independent PVAs when populations experience either form of density dependence. Our results suggest two generalities about the relationships among disease, PVA, and the management of endangered species. First, disease more strongly increases variability in host abundance and, thus, the probability of quasi-extinction, than does self-limitation. This result stems from the fact that the effects and the probability of occurrence of disease are both density dependent. Second, estimates of quasi-extinction are more often overly optimistic for populations experiencing disease than for those subject to self-limitation. Thus, although the results of density-independent PVAs may be relatively robust to some particular assumptions about density dependence, they are less robust when endangered populations are known to be susceptible to disease. If potential management actions involve manipulating pathogens, then it may be useful to. model disease explicitly.
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After ingestion of a standardized dose of ethanol, alcohol concentrations were assessed, over 3.5 hours from blood (six readings) and breath (10 readings) in a sample of 412 MZ and DZ twins who took part in an Alcohol Challenge Twin Study (ACTS). Nearly all participants were subsequently genotyped on two polymorphic SNPs in the ADH1B and ADH1C loci known to affect in vitro ADH activity. In the DZ pairs, 14 microsatellite markers covering a 20.5 cM region on chromosome 4 that includes the ADH gene family were assessed, Variation in the timed series of autocorrelated blood and breath alcohol readings was studied using a bivariate simplex design. The contribution of a quantitative trait locus (QTL) or QTL's linked to the ADH region was estimated via a mixture of likelihoods weighted by identity-by-descent probabilities. The effects of allelic substitution at the ADH1B and ADH1C loci were estimated in the means part of the model simultaneously with the effects sex and age. There was a major contribution to variance in alcohol metabolism due to a QTL which accounted for about 64% of the additive genetic covariation common to both blood and breath alcohol readings at the first time point. No effects of the ADH1B*47His or ADH1C*349Ile alleles on in vivo metabolism were observed, although these have been shown to have major effects in vitro. This implies that there is a major determinant of variation for in vivo alcohol metabolism in the ADH region that is not accounted for by these polymorphisms. Earlier analyses of these data suggested that alcohol metabolism is related to drinking behavior and imply that this QTL may be protective against alcohol dependence.
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Background: In early 2001, Australia experienced a sudden, dramatic and;sustained decrease in heroin availability that was accompanied by sharp increases in price and decreases in street level purity-the so-called heroin shortage. These unprecedented changes occurred in a context of widespread treatment availability, which made it possible for the first time to examine the impact of a sharp reduction in heroin supply in New South Wales (NSW) on entry to and adherence with treatment for heroin dependence. Given the evidence of drug substitution by some users. the current paper also examines the effects of the shortage on entry to treatment for other forms of drug dependence. Methods: Interrupted time-series analysis of the number of persons entering opioid pharmacotherapy and other treatment modalities in NSW for heroin dependence and for the treatment for other types of drug dependence. Findings: The heroin shortage was associated with a reduction in the number of younger persons entering opioid pharmacotherapy. There was a dramatic decrease in the number of persons entering heroin withdrawal or assessment only treatment episodes. There appear to have been small improvements in adherence to and retention in heroin treatment after the reduction in heroin supply. Relatively small increases were observed in numbers being treated for cocaine dependence. Conclusions: In the context of good treatment provision, a reduction in heroin supply appeared to produce modest improvements in intermediate outcomes. Supply and demand reduction measures, when both are implemented successfully, may be complementary. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Background: The low-activity variant of the aldehyde dehydrogenase 2 (ALDH2) gene found in East Asian populations leads to the alcohol flush reaction and reduces alcohol consumption and risk of alcohol dependence (AD). We have tested whether other polymorphisms in the ALDH2 gene have similar effects in people of European ancestry. Methods: Serial measurements of blood and breath alcohol, subjective intoxication, body sway, skin temperature, blood pressure, and pulse were obtained in 412 twins who took part in an alcohol challenge study. Participants provided data on alcohol reactions, alcohol consumption, and symptoms related to AD at the time of the study and subsequently. Haplotypes based on 5 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were used in tests of the effects of variation in the ALDH2 gene on alcohol metabolism and alcohol's effects. Results: The typed SNPs were in strong linkage disequilibrium and 2 complementary haplotypes comprised 83% of those observed. Significant effects of ALDH2 haplotype were observed for breath alcohol concentration, with similar but smaller and nonsignificant effects on blood alcohol. Haplotype-related variation in responses to alcohol, and reported alcohol consumption, was small and not consistently in the direction predicted by the effects on alcohol concentrations. Conclusions: Genetic variation in ALDH2 affects alcohol metabolism in Europeans. However, the data do not support the hypothesis that this leads to effects on alcohol sensitivity, consumption, or risk of dependence.
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The aim of this investigation was to test the hypothesis that testicular germ cell tumors (TGCTs) are hormone-dependent cancers. Human TGCT cells were implanted in the left testis of male severe combined immunodeficient mice receiving either no treatment or hormone manipulation treatment [blockade of gonadotropin-releasing hormone secretion and/or signaling using leuprolide or leuprolide plus exogenous testosterone]. Real-time RT-PCR analysis was used to determine the expression profiles of hormone pathway-associated genes. Tumor burden was significantly smaller in mice receiving both leuprolide and testosterone. Real-time RTPCR analysis of follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) receptor, luteinizing hormone (LH) receptor and P450 aromatase revealed changes in expression in normal testis tissue related to presence of xenograft tumors and manipulation of hormone levels but a complete absence of expression of these genes in tumor cells themselves. This was confirmed in human specimens of TGCT. Reduced TGCT growth in vivo was associated with significant downregulation of LH receptor and P450 aromatase expression in normal testes. In conclusion, manipulation of hormone levels influenced the growth of TGCT in vivo, while the presence of xenografted tumors influenced the expression of hormone-related genes in otherwise untreated animals. Human TGCTs, both in the animal model and in clinical specimens, appear not to express receptors for FSH or LH. Similarly, expression of the P450 aromatase gene is absent in TGCTs. Impaired estrogen synthesis and/or signaling may be at least partly responsible for inhibition of TGCT growth in the animal model. (c) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
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Objective: Dysphoria and depression have been cited as side effects of the opioid antagonist naltrexone. We aimed to assess whether depressive symptoms are a clinically relevant side effect in a population receiving naltrexone as a treatment for opioid dependence. Methods: We carried out a randomized controlled, open-label trial comparing rapid opiate detoxification under anesthesia and naltrexone treatment with continued methadone maintenance at the Alcohol and Drug Service, Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Brisbane, Australia. The study subjects were patients stabilized on methadone maintenance treatment for heroin dependence who wished to transfer to naltrexone treatment. The Beck Depression Inventory, State-Trait Anxiety Inventory and Opiate Treatment Index subscales for heroin use and social functioning were used at baseline and follow-up assessments at 1, 2, 3 and 6 months. Results: Forty-two participants were allocated to receive naltrexone treatment, whereas 38 continued methadone maintenance as the control condition. Participants who received naltrexone did not exhibit worsening of depressive symptoms. In participants attending all follow-up assessments, there was a trend for those receiving naltrexone to exhibit an improvement in depression over time compared with the control group. Participants who were adherent to naltrexone treatment exhibited fewer depressive symptoms than those who were nonadherent. Conclusions: These results suggest that depression need not be considered a common adverse effect of naltrexone treatment or a treatment contraindication and that engaging with or adhering to naltrexone treatment may be associated with fewer depressive symptoms.
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Purpose: Tissue Doppler strain rate imaging (SRI) have been validated and applied in various clinical settings, but the clinical use of this modality is still limited due to time-consuming postprocessing, unfavorable signal to noise ratio and major angle dependency of image acquisition. 2D Strain (2DS) measures strain parameters through automated tissue tracking (Lagrangian strain) rather than tissue velocity regression. We sought to compare the accuracy of this technique with SRI and evaluate whether it overcomes the above limitations. Methods: We assessed 26 patients (13 female, age 60±5yrs) at low risk of CAD and with normal DSE at both baseline and peak stress. End systolic strain (ESS), peak systolic strain rate (SR), and timing parameters were measured by two independent observers using SRI and 2D Strain. Myocardial segments were excluded from the analyses if the insonation angle exceeded 30 degrees or if the segments were not visualized; 417 segments were evaluated. Results: Normal ranges for TVI and CEB approaches were comparable for SR (-0.99 ± 0.39 vs -0.88 ± 0.36, p=NS), ESS (-15.1 ± 6.5 vs -14.9 ± 6.3, p=NS), time to end of systole (174 ± 47 vs 174 ± 53, p=NS) and time to peak SR (TTP; 340 ± 34 vs 375 ± 57). The best correlations between the techniques were for time to end systole (rest r=0.6, p
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Difficulties in visual attention are increasingly being linked to dyslexia. To date, the majority of studies have inferred functionality of attention from response times to stimuli presented for an indefinite duration. However, in paradigms that use reaction times to investigate the ability to orient attention, a delayed reaction time could also indicate difficulties in signal enhancement or noise exclusion once oriented. Thus, in order to investigate attention modulation and visual crowding effects in dyslexia, this study measured stimulus discrimination accuracy to rapidly presented displays. Adults with dyslexia (AwD) and controls discriminated the orientation of a target in an array of different numbers of - and differently spaced - vertically orientated distractors. Results showed that AwD: were disproportionately impacted by (i) close spacing and (ii) increased numbers of stimuli, (iii) did use pre-cues to modulate attention, but (iv) used cues less successfully to counter effects of increasing numbers of distractors. A greater dependence on pre-cues, larger effects of crowding and the impact of increased numbers of distractors all correlated significantly with measures of literacy. These findings extend previous studies of visual crowding of letters in dyslexia to non-complex stimuli. Overall, AwD do not use cues less, but they do use cues less successfully. We conclude that visual attention is an important factor to consider in the aetiology of dyslexia. The results challenge existing theoretical accounts of visual attention deficits, which alone are unable to comprehensively explain the pattern of findings demonstrated here.
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Models for the conditional joint distribution of the U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen and Euro/Japanese Yen exchange rates, from November 2001 until June 2007, are evaluated and compared. The conditional dependency is allowed to vary across time, as a function of either historical returns or a combination of past return data and option-implied dependence estimates. Using prices of currency options that are available in the public domain, risk-neutral dependency expectations are extracted through a copula repre- sentation of the bivariate risk-neutral density. For this purpose, we employ either the one-parameter \Normal" or a two-parameter \Gumbel Mixture" specification. The latter provides forward-looking information regarding the overall degree of covariation, as well as, the level and direction of asymmetric dependence. Specifications that include option-based measures in their information set are found to outperform, in-sample and out-of-sample, models that rely solely on historical returns.
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A possibility of a strong change of an electromagnetic signal by a short sequence of time cycles of pulses that modulate the medium parameters is shown. The backward wave is demonstrated to be an inevitable result of the medium time change. Dependence of the relation between backward and forward waves on the parameters of the medium modulation is investigated. The finite statistical complexity of the electromagnetic signal transformed by a finite sequence of modulating cycles is calculated. Increase of the complexity with the number of cycles is shown.
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Although fiber Bragg gratings (FBGs) have been widely used as advanced optical sensors, the cross-sensitivity between temperature and strain has complicated independent measurement procedures for these two measurands. We report here, for the first time to our knowledge, the results of a systematic investigation of the dependence of both temperature and strain sensitivities on the grating type, including the well-known Type I, Type IIA, and a new type which we have designated Type IA, using both hydrogen-free and hydrogenated B/Ge codoped fibers. We have identified distinct sensitivity characteristics for each grating type, and we have utilised them to implement a novel dual-grating, dual-parameter sensor device with performance superior to that of previously reported grating-based structures.
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Purpose: To determine the response of retinal vessels to differing durations of flicker light (FL) sitmulation. Methods: We recorded retinal arterial and venous vessel dilation to 12.5 Hz flicker light provocation (Retinal Vessel Analyzer, Imedos Systems) of varying duration (5, 7, 10 and 20 seconds) in twelve healthy young individuals (age range 26-45 yrs). All participants underwent a full ocular examination including intraocular pressure and blood pressure measurements. Results: Maximum dilation (MD) did not show a significant dependence on flicker duration in arteries whereas maximum constriction (MC) did. However, in veins MD significantly increased with flicker duration. Approximately 80-90% of MD in arteries is reached within 10 seconds of flicker light stimulation. Conclusions: The vast majority of arterial dilatory capacity is reached within 10 seconds of flicker light stimulation even though venous dilation continues strongly. Since the MC of arteries shows a significant dependence on flicker duration measurements at two different durations can provide more information about the retinal vascular system than at a single flicker duration alone.
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Limited literature regarding parameter estimation of dynamic systems has been identified as the central-most reason for not having parametric bounds in chaotic time series. However, literature suggests that a chaotic system displays a sensitive dependence on initial conditions, and our study reveals that the behavior of chaotic system: is also sensitive to changes in parameter values. Therefore, parameter estimation technique could make it possible to establish parametric bounds on a nonlinear dynamic system underlying a given time series, which in turn can improve predictability. By extracting the relationship between parametric bounds and predictability, we implemented chaos-based models for improving prediction in time series. ^ This study describes work done to establish bounds on a set of unknown parameters. Our research results reveal that by establishing parametric bounds, it is possible to improve the predictability of any time series, although the dynamics or the mathematical model of that series is not known apriori. In our attempt to improve the predictability of various time series, we have established the bounds for a set of unknown parameters. These are: (i) the embedding dimension to unfold a set of observation in the phase space, (ii) the time delay to use for a series, (iii) the number of neighborhood points to use for avoiding detection of false neighborhood and, (iv) the local polynomial to build numerical interpolation functions from one region to another. Using these bounds, we are able to get better predictability in chaotic time series than previously reported. In addition, the developments of this dissertation can establish a theoretical framework to investigate predictability in time series from the system-dynamics point of view. ^ In closing, our procedure significantly reduces the computer resource usage, as the search method is refined and efficient. Finally, the uniqueness of our method lies in its ability to extract chaotic dynamics inherent in non-linear time series by observing its values. ^
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Smoking prevalence among adolescents in the Middle East remains high while rates of smoking have been declining among adolescents elsewhere. The aims of this research were to (1) describe patterns of cigarette and waterpipe (WP) smoking, (2) identify determinants of WP smoking initiation, and (3) identify determinants of cigarette smoking initiation in a cohort of Jordanian school children. ^ Among this cohort of school children in Irbid, Jordan, (age ≈ 12.6 at baseline) the first aim (N=1,781) described time trends in smoking behavior, age at initiation, and changes in frequency of smoking from 2008–2011 (grades 7–10). The second aim (N=1,243) identified determinants of WP initiation among WP-naïve students; and the third aim (N=1,454) identified determinants of cigarette smoking initiation among cigarette naïve participants. Determinants of initiation were assessed with generalized mixed models. All analyses were stratified by gender. ^ Baseline prevalence of current smoking (cigarettes or WP) for boys and girls was 22.9% and 8.7% respectively. Prevalence of ever- and current- any smoking, cigarette smoking, WP smoking, and dual cigarette/WP smoking was higher in boys than girls each year (p<0.001). At all time points, prevalence of WP smoking was higher than that of cigarette smoking (p<0.001) for both boys and girls. WP initiation was documented in 39% of boys and 28% of girls. Cigarette initiation was documented in 37% of boys and 24% of girls. Determinants of WP initiation included ever-cigarette smoking, low WP refusal self-efficacy, intention to smoke, and having teachers and friends who smoke WP. Determinants of cigarette smoking initiation included ever-WP smoking, low cigarette refusal self-efficacy, intention to start smoking cigarettes, and having friends and family who smoke.^ These studies reveal intensive smoking patterns at early ages among Jordanian youth in Irbid, characterized by a predominance of WP smoking. WP may be a vehicle for tobacco dependence and subsequent cigarette uptake. The sizeable incidence of WP and cigarette initiation among students of both sexes points to a need for culturally relevant smoking prevention interventions. Gender-specific factors, refusal skills, and smoking cessation of both WP and cigarettes for youth and their parents/teachers would be important components of such initiatives. ^