The effects of quantitative easing on the volatility of the gilt-edged market

We model the effects of quantitative easing on the volatility of returns to individual gilts, examining both the effects of QE overall and of the specific days of asset purchases. The action of QE successfully neutralized the six fold increase in volatility that had been experienced by gilts since the start of the financial crisis. The volatility of longer term bonds reduced more quickly than the volatility of short to medium term bonds. The reversion of the volatility of shorter term bonds to pre-crisis levels was found to be more sensitive to the specific operational actions of QE, particularly where they experienced relatively greater purchase activity.

The Experience of the Arnamagnæan Institute, Copenhagen

The Arnamagnæan Institute, principally in the form of the present writer, has been involved in a number of projects to do with the digitisation, electronic description and text-encoding of medieval manuscripts. Several of these projects were dealt with in a previous article 'The view from the North: Some Scandinavian digitisation projects', NCD review, 4 (2004), pp. 22-30. This paper looks in some depth at two others, MASTER and CHLT. The Arnamagnæan Institute is a teaching and research institute within the Faculty of Humanities at the University of Copenhagen. It is named after the Icelandic scholar and antiquarian Árni Magnússon (1663-1730), secretary of the Royal Danish Archives and Professor of Danish Antiquities at the University of Copenhagen, who in the course of his lifetime built up what is arguably the single most important collection of early Scandinavian manuscripts in the world, some 2,500 manuscript items, the earliest dating from the 12th century. The majority of these are from Iceland, but the collection also contains important Norwegian, Danish and Swedish manuscripts, along with approximately 100 manuscripts of continental provenance. In addition to the manuscripts proper, there are collections of original charters and apographa: 776 Norwegian (including Faroese, Shetlandic and Orcadian) charters and 2895 copies, 1571 Danish charters and 1372 copies, and 1345 Icelandic charters and 5942 copies. When he died in 1730, Árni Magnússon bequeathed his collection to the University of Copenhagen. The original collection has subsequently been augmented through individual purchases and gifts and the acquisition of a number of smaller collections, bringing the total to nearly 3000 manuscript items, which, with the charters and apographa, comprise over half a million pages.

Connecting social media to e-commerce:cold-start product recommendation using microblogging information

In recent years, the boundaries between e-commerce and social networking have become increasingly blurred. Many e-commerce websites support the mechanism of social login where users can sign on the websites using their social network identities such as their Facebook or Twitter accounts. Users can also post their newly purchased products on microblogs with links to the e-commerce product web pages. In this paper, we propose a novel solution for cross-site cold-start product recommendation, which aims to recommend products from e-commerce websites to users at social networking sites in 'cold-start' situations, a problem which has rarely been explored before. A major challenge is how to leverage knowledge extracted from social networking sites for cross-site cold-start product recommendation. We propose to use the linked users across social networking sites and e-commerce websites (users who have social networking accounts and have made purchases on e-commerce websites) as a bridge to map users' social networking features to another feature representation for product recommendation. In specific, we propose learning both users' and products' feature representations (called user embeddings and product embeddings, respectively) from data collected from e-commerce websites using recurrent neural networks and then apply a modified gradient boosting trees method to transform users' social networking features into user embeddings. We then develop a feature-based matrix factorization approach which can leverage the learnt user embeddings for cold-start product recommendation. Experimental results on a large dataset constructed from the largest Chinese microblogging service Sina Weibo and the largest Chinese B2C e-commerce website JingDong have shown the effectiveness of our proposed framework.

Sustainable consumption: from escape strategies towards real alternatives

Better sustainability policy is supposed to lead to better sustainability performance. Nonetheless, recent research predicts further growth of the ecological footprint and stable ecological deficit in Europe and North America despite their impressive policy efforts (Lenzen et al. 2007) [1]. Similarly, individual strategies result in somewhat reduced load for committed consumers, but this reduction cannot offset the total impact of the socio-economic configuration: consumers in higher income countries tend to pollute more. Comitted consumers "offset" a part of their environmental load by carrying out green purchases. A radical change assumes a change in lifestyle (Shove, 2004) [2]. The conference paper is the first step of the study that aims at measuring the significance of attitude elements as compared to the significance of the socio-economic system on different elements of consumption and environmental aspects This paper focuses on measuring the ecological footprint impacts of consumption in different product groups as well as in different income groups of the society.

Mother-child interactions in youth purchase decisions

This study examines the impact of mother-child interactions on youth purchase decisions with a clear focus on dependent young adults living in the parental home. Two studies were carried out using both quantitative and qualitative approaches in order to understand the characteristics of young adults’ purchase decision-making. In the first study, a survey was distributed among young adults, and in the second study, several short essays from pairs of young adults and their mothers were analysed. Findings suggest that mother-child communication has a significant impact on children’s consumer decision-making style. Furthermore, these results draw particular attention to the laissez-faire communication style, which is relevant due to both its prevalence and its influence on youth decision-making. We also conclude that the product or service category is a critical consideration when the independence of young adults is evaluated in relation to their purchases.

The adoption of retail electronic commerce: An empirical investigation

The purpose of this study was to empirically investigate the adoption of retail electronic commerce (REC). REC is a business transaction which takes place over the Internet between a casual consumer and a firm. The consumer has no long-term relationship with the firm, orders a good or service, and pays with a credit card. To date, most REC applications have not been profitable. To build profitable REC applications a better understanding of the system's users is required. ^ The research model hypothesizes that the level of REC buying is dependent upon the Buying Characteristics of Internet Use and Search Experience plus the Channel Characteristics of Beliefs About Internet Vendors and Beliefs About Internet Security. The effect of these factors is modified by Time. Additional research questions ask about the different types of REC buyers, the differences between these groups, and how these groups evolved over time. ^ To answer these research questions I analyzed publicly available data collected over a three-year period by the Georgia Institute of Technology Graphics and Visualization Unit over the Internet. Findings indicate the model best predicts Number of Purchases in a future period, and that Buyer Characteristics are most important to this determination. Further, this model is evolving over Time making Buyer Characteristics predict Number of Purchases better in more recent survey administrations. Buyers clustered into five groups based on level of buying and move through various levels and buy increasing Number of Purchases over time. ^ This is the first large scale research project to investigate the evolution of REC. This implications are significant. Practitioners with casual consumer customers need to deploy a finely tuned REC strategy, understand their buyers, capitalize on the company reputation on the Internet, install an Internet-compatible infrastructure, and web-enable order-entry/inventory/fulliment/shipping applications. Researchers might wish to expand on the Buyer Characteristics of the model and/or explore alternative dependent variables. Further, alternative theories such as Population Ecology or Transaction Cost Economics might further illuminate this new I.S. research domain. ^

Essays on durable goods consumption and firm innovation

This dissertation comprises three individual chapters. Chapter Two examines how free riding across neighbors influenced the diffusion of color television sets in rural China. Chapter Three tests for asymmetric information between a firm’s management and other investors concerning its patent output. Chapter Four discusses how knowledge stocks influence a patenting firm’s later diversification. Chapter Two documents the existence of a type of network effects—free riding across neighbors—in the consumption of color television sets in rural China, which reduces the propensity of non-owners to purchase. I construct a model of the timing of the purchase of a durable good in the presence of free riding, and test its key implications using household survey data in rural China. Chapter Three tests for asymmetric information between a firm’s management and other investors about its patent output by examining insider trading patterns and stock price changes in R&D intensive firms. It demonstrates that management has considerable information about its patent output beyond what is known to investors. It also shows that the predictive power of insider trading patterns on patent output comes from purchases rather than sales. Chapter Four discusses two sequential channels through which knowledge stocks may influence a firm’s later diversification. One is that firms with more knowledge are more likely to enter a new industry. The other is that firms’ businesses have a better chance of surviving, conditional on being formed. By examining U.S. public patenting firms in manufacturing sectors for 1984-1996, I find that knowledge stocks predict the likelihood of new industry entry when controlling for firm size. However, this predictive power is weakened when diversification effects are included. On the other hand, a survival study of newly established segments shows that initial knowledge stocks have significant positive effects on segment survival, whereas diversification effects are insignificant.

Altered Landscape or Arms Race? Making Sense of Military Spending in South America

In 2009, South American military spending reached a total of $51.8 billion, a fifty percent increased from 2000 expenditures. The five-year moving average of arms transfers to South America was 150 percent higher from 2005 to 2009 than figures for 2000 to 2004.[1] These figures and others have led some observers to conclude that Latin America is engaged in an arms race. Other reasons, however, account for Latin America’s large military expenditure. Among them: Several countries have undertaken long-prolonged modernization efforts, recently made possible by six years of consistent regional growth.[2] A generational shift is at hand. Armed Forces are beginning to shed the stigma and association with past dictatorial regimes.[3] Countries are pursuing specific individual strategies, rather than reacting to purchases made by neighbors. For example, Brazil wants to attain greater control of its Amazon rainforests and offshore territories, Colombia’s spending demonstrates a response to internal threats, and Chile is continuing a modernization process begun in the 1990s.[4] Concerns remain, however: Venezuela continues to demonstrate poor democratic governance and a lack of transparency; neighbor-state relations between Colombia and Venezuela, Peru and Chile, and Bolivia and Paraguay, must all continue to be monitored; and Brazil’s military purchases, although legitimate, will likely result in a large accumulation of equipment.[5] These concerns can be best addressed by strengthening and garnering greater participation in transparent procurement mechanism.[6] The United States can do its part by supporting Latin American efforts to embrace the transparency process. _________________ [1] Bromley, Mark, “An Arms Race in Our Hemisphere? Discussing the Trends and Implications of Military Expenditures in South America,” Brookings Institution Conference, Washington, D.C., June 3rd, 2010, Transcript Pgs. 12,13, and 16 [2] Robledo, Marcos, “The Rearmament Debate: A Chilean Perspective,” Power Point presentation, slide 18, 2010 Western Hemisphere Security Colloquium, Miami, Florida, May 25th-26th, 2010 [3] Yopo, Boris, “¿Carrera Armamentista en la Regiόn?” La Tercera, November 2nd, 2009, http://www.latercera.com/contenido/895_197084_9.shtml, accessed October 8th, 2010 [4] Walser, Ray, “An Arms Race in Our Hemisphere? Discussing the Trends and Implications of Military Expenditures in South America,” Brookings Institution Conference, Washington, D.C., June 3rd, 2010, Transcript Pgs. 49,50,53 and 54 [5] Ibid., Guevara, Iñigo, Pg. 22 [6] Ibid., Bromley, Mark, Pgs. 18 and 19

The adoption of retail electronic commerce: an empirical investigation

The purpose of this study was to empirically investigate the adoption of retail electronic commerce (REC). REC is a business transaction which takes place over the Internet between a casual consumer and a firm. The consumer has no long-term relationship with the firm, orders a good or service, and pays with a credit card. To date, most REC applications have not been profitable. To build profitable REC applications a better understanding of the system's users is required. The research model hypothesizes that the level of REC buying is dependent upon the Buying Characteristics of Internet Use and Search Experience plus the Channel Characteristics of Beliefs About Internet Vendors and Beliefs About Internet Security. The effect of these factors is modified by Time. Additional research questions ask about the different types of REC buyers, the differences between these groups, and how these groups evolved over time. To answer these research questions I analyzed publically available data collected over a three-year period by the Georgia Institute of Technology Graphics and Visualization Unit over the Internet. Findings indicate the model best predicts Number of Purchases in a future period, and that Buyer Characteristics are most important to this determination. Further, this model is evolving over Time making Buyer Characteristics predict Number of Purchases better in more recent survey administrations. Buyers clustered into five groups based on level of buying and move through various levels and buy increasing Number of Purchases over time. This is the first large scale research project to investigate the evolution of REC. This implications are significant. Practitioners with casual consumer customers need to deploy a finely tuned REC strategy, understand their buyers, capitalize on the company reputation on the Internet, install an Internet-compatible infrastructure, and web-enable order-entry/inventory/fulfillment/ shipping applications. Researchers might wish to expand on the Buyer Characteristics of the model and/or explore alternative dependent variables. Further, alternative theories such as Population Ecology or Transaction Cost Economics might further illuminate this new I.S. research domain.

Dinâmicas de reprodução do comércio e os novos papéis urbanos de pequenas cidades norte-rio-grandenses: um olhar a partir das redes associativistas de supermercados

The work presented here aims to make an analysis of the socio-spatial dynamics of associative supermarket chains and their importance in redefining the roles of small urban North Rio Grande cities. The theoretical approach gives priority to business as a city constituent whose understanding allows us to seize the new socio-spatial dynamics of small towns in the face of globalization and which caused changes in the scope of its commercial forms. In this sense, we understand that trade, as an essentially urban activity has a very specific characteristic, with respect to its ability to transform the content and meaning of places. Another important factor in the construction work was the context of changes in the capitalist production system with the advent of flexible production and the determinations of the economic globalization process that brought new ways of organizing trade. The empirical analysis of the research includes two associative supermarket chains, the “Rede 10” and the “Rede Seridó”, bringing together basic elements for understanding the genesis and evolution of this new organizational model of trade in small towns of the state, as well as allowed -In understand the main changes in this segment of commercial activity. The methodology we used literature in books and periodicals, collected mainly secondary data collection with the SEBRAE and the ABRAS and was still a field research where interviews were conducted forwarded along to the associative network managers to supermarkets, owners of associated facilities and with consumers of the surveyed networks .Finally, we conclude that the formation and expansion of associative supermarket chains in the context of small cities potiguares is essentially in a survival alternative traditional small traders, that sharing the associative principles albeit somewhat rigidly guided by the training cooperation networks can not only stay in the market , but to impose as a new agent in the capital of the reproduction process. Thus, the associative supermarket chains in the search for new spaces, particularly within small towns end up promoting new momentum in these cities providing different flows and interconnections with different places, giving new content and urban roles. By taking not only the condition of the place of living, but also the place to reproduce the capital, small towns offer their population better able to make purchases, thus avoiding the mandatory population shifts to other urban centers in order to meet their consumption needs.

Função compras no setor público: fatores preponderantes para o alcance da celeridade dos pregões eletrônicos da Base Aérea de Natal

This study discusses the issue of deadlines in the purchasing process within the Federal Public Administration. Your main goal is to analyze the main factors that influenced, mainly in the implementation of sub-phases of electronic trading in BANT, in 2014, as service to the principle of celerity. The research is descriptive since they were identified and analyzed the factors that influenced in terms of purchases, through direct observation and interviews. Based on the theoretical framework, the purchasing function, four dimensions of analysis were established: "Legislation and procurement processes", "Structure and Organization of the purchasing department", "purchasing systems" and "Human Resources of the purchasing department." Analysis showed that, unlike what happens in the private sector, the public procurement sector has not reached a strategic status within organizations, which brings harmful consequences to the speed of the purchases. It was found that there is a need for greater involvement of the purchasing department staff and criers in the formulation of the organization's purchasing strategies and that these purchases elements present, about their attitudes, a hybrid profile, proactive regarding specifications of the items, but reactive in relation to the need to urgently purchase, due to the lack of a better plan, which overloads the work of the sector. The observation of these strategic aspects of the procurement function in BANT influenced the finding that the lack of staff and expertise in investments plus the lack of rigor and formality of legislation, among other factors, contributed mainly to the lack of speed of processes.

Projeto de intervenção adaptando o Balanced Scorecard ao sistema de compras da Base Aérea de Natal

The present proposal for intervention examines the issue of public procurements carried out by a military organization on a Federal Public Administration. The main objective of this paper is to propose a model of strategic planning based on the Balanced Scorecard for the public procurement system, which contributes to increased efficiency, efficacy and effectiveness of acquisitions made in the Air Base of Natal city. Therefore, Structured interviews were used in order to make a diagnosis of the current reality of the procurement system along with the main requirement sectors of BANT, as well as the adaptation of the prospects of the BSC based on literature review. The technique used for the analysis of the interviews was the analysis of content whose results contributed to the preparation of the conceptual Strategic Map which was submitted to validation through a Focal Group. It was concluded through the analysis of the interviews, that the system of purchases of BANT is in a tactical profile because of low interaction between the system of purchases and the requirement sectors, aiming only at the “economicity” of acquisition in opposition of the effectiveness of material acquired, the lack of training of the elements which build the system and the absence of a proper planning. It is intended with thecreation of this proposal to contribute to the improvement of management with a focus on results in public administration as well as increasing efficiency, efficacy and effectiveness of public procurements. Whereas for the particular case the measurement of the results can only be performed after at least a year of its implementation, the present research constitutes a proposal of intervention.

Determinants of internal and external R&D offshoring: Evidence from Spanish firms

This paper analyzes the determinants of R&D offshoring of Spanish firms using information from the Panel of Technological Innovation. We find that being an exporter, international technological cooperation, continuous R&D engagement, applying for patents, being a for-eign subsidiary, and firm size are factors that positively affect the decision to offshore R&D. In addition, we find that a lack of financing is an obstacle relatively more important for inde-pendent firms than for firms that belong to business groups. For these latter, we also obtain that the factors that influence the decision to offshore R&D differ depending on whether the firm purchases the R&D services within the group or through the market: a higher degree of importance assigned to internal sources of information for innovation as compared to mar-ket sources increases (decreases) the probability of R&D offshoring only through the group (market).

Using Bird Distributions to Assess Extinction Risk and Identify Conservation Priorities in Biodiversity Hotspots

Habitat loss, fragmentation, and degradation threaten the World’s ecosystems and species. These, and other threats, will likely be exacerbated by climate change. Due to a limited budget for conservation, we are forced to prioritize a few areas over others. These places are selected based on their uniqueness and vulnerability. One of the most famous examples is the biodiversity hotspots: areas where large quantities of endemic species meet alarming rates of habitat loss. Most of these places are in the tropics, where species have smaller ranges, diversity is higher, and ecosystems are most threatened.

Species distributions are useful to understand ecological theory and evaluate extinction risk. Small-ranged species, or those endemic to one place, are more vulnerable to extinction than widely distributed species. However, current range maps often overestimate the distribution of species, including areas that are not within the suitable elevation or habitat for a species. Consequently, assessment of extinction risk using these maps could underestimate vulnerability.

In order to be effective in our quest to conserve the World’s most important places we must: 1) Translate global and national priorities into practical local actions, 2) Find synergies between biodiversity conservation and human welfare, 3) Evaluate the different dimensions of threats, in order to design effective conservation measures and prepare for future threats, and 4) Improve the methods used to evaluate species’ extinction risk and prioritize areas for conservation. The purpose of this dissertation is to address these points in Colombia and other global biodiversity hotspots.

In Chapter 2, I identified the global, strategic conservation priorities and then downscaled to practical local actions within the selected priorities in Colombia. I used existing range maps of 171 bird species to identify priority conservation areas that would protect the greatest number of species at risk in Colombia (endemic and small-ranged species). The Western Andes had the highest concentrations of such species—100 in total—but the lowest densities of national parks. I then adjusted the priorities for this region by refining these species ranges by selecting only areas of suitable elevation and remaining habitat. The estimated ranges of these species shrank by 18–100% after accounting for habitat and suitable elevation. Setting conservation priorities on the basis of currently available range maps excluded priority areas in the Western Andes and, by extension, likely elsewhere and for other taxa. By incorporating detailed maps of remaining natural habitats, I made practical recommendations for conservation actions. One recommendation was to restore forest connections to a patch of cloud forest about to become isolated from the main Andes.

For Chapter 3, I identified areas where bird conservation met ecosystem service protection in the Central Andes of Colombia. Inspired by the November 11th (2011) landslide event near Manizales, and the current poor results of Colombia’s Article 111 of Law 99 of 1993 as a conservation measure in this country, I set out to prioritize conservation and restoration areas where landslide prevention would complement bird conservation in the Central Andes. This area is one of the most biodiverse places on Earth, but also one of the most threatened. Using the case of the Rio Blanco Reserve, near Manizales, I identified areas for conservation where endemic and small-range bird diversity was high, and where landslide risk was also high. I further prioritized restoration areas by overlapping these conservation priorities with a forest cover map. Restoring forests in bare areas of high landslide risk and important bird diversity yields benefits for both biodiversity and people. I developed a simple landslide susceptibility model using slope, forest cover, aspect, and stream proximity. Using publicly available bird range maps, refined by elevation, I mapped concentrations of endemic and small-range bird species. I identified 1.54 km2 of potential restoration areas in the Rio Blanco Reserve, and 886 km2 in the Central Andes region. By prioritizing these areas, I facilitate the application of Article 111 which requires local and regional governments to invest in land purchases for the conservation of watersheds.

Chapter 4 dealt with elevational ranges of montane birds and the impact of lowland deforestation on their ranges in the Western Andes of Colombia, an important biodiversity hotspot. Using point counts and mist-nets, I surveyed six altitudinal transects spanning 2200 to 2800m. Three transects were forested from 2200 to 2800m, and three were partially deforested with forest cover only above 2400m. I compared abundance-weighted mean elevation, minimum elevation, and elevational range width. In addition to analyzing the effect of deforestation on 134 species, I tested its impact within trophic guilds and habitat preference groups. Abundance-weighted mean and minimum elevations were not significantly different between forested and partially deforested transects. Range width was marginally different: as expected, ranges were larger in forested transects. Species in different trophic guilds and habitat preference categories showed different trends. These results suggest that deforestation may affect species’ elevational ranges, even within the forest that remains. Climate change will likely exacerbate harmful impacts of deforestation on species’ elevational distributions. Future conservation strategies need to account for this by protecting connected forest tracts across a wide range of elevations.

In Chapter 5, I refine the ranges of 726 species from six biodiversity hotspots by suitable elevation and habitat. This set of 172 bird species for the Atlantic Forest, 138 for Central America, 100 for the Western Andes of Colombia, 57 for Madagascar, 102 for Sumatra, and 157 for Southeast Asia met the criteria for range size, endemism, threat, and forest use. Of these 586 species, the Red List deems 108 to be threatened: 15 critically endangered, 29 endangered, and 64 vulnerable. When ranges are refined by elevational limits and remaining forest cover, 10 of those critically endangered species have ranges < 100km2, but then so do 2 endangered species, seven vulnerable, and eight non-threatened ones. Similarly, 4 critically endangered species, 20 endangered, and 12 vulnerable species have refined ranges < 5000km2, but so do 66 non-threatened species. A striking 89% of these species I have classified in higher threat categories have <50% of their refined ranges inside protected areas. I find that for 43% of the species I assessed, refined range sizes fall within thresholds that typically have higher threat categories than their current assignments. I recommend these species for closer inspection by those who assess risk. These assessments are not only important on a species-by-species basis, but by combining distributions of threatened species, I create maps of conservation priorities. They differ significantly from those created from unrefined ranges.

Neurosurgical Needs and Assets Assessment of Public Hospitals in Uganda: An Eevaluation of Mulago Hospital to Inform Neurosurgical Program Planning at Mbarara

Background: Since 2007, there has been an ongoing collaboration between Duke University and Mulago National Referral Hospital (NRH) in Kampala, Uganda to increase surgical capacity. This program is prepared to expand to other sites within Uganda to improve neurosurgery outside of Kampala as well. This study assessed the existing progress at Mulago NRH and the neurosurgical needs and assets at two potential sites for expansion. Methods: Three public hospitals were visited to assess needs and assets: Mulago NRH, Mbarara Regional Referral Hospital (RRH), and Gulu RRH. At each site, a surgical capacity tool was administered and healthcare workers were interviewed about perceived needs and assets. A total of 39 interviews were conducted between the three sites. Thematic analysis of the interviews was conducted to identify the reported needs and assets at each hospital. Results: Some improvements are needed to the Duke-Mulago Collaboration model prior to expansion; minor changes to the neurosurgery residency program as well as the method for supply donation and training provided during neurosurgery camps need to examined. Neurosurgery can be implemented at Mbarara RRH currently but the hospital needs a biomedical equipment technician on staff immediately. Gulu RRH is not well positioned for Neurosurgery until there is a CT Scanner somewhere in the Northern Region of Uganda or at the hospital. Conclusions: Neurosurgery is already present in Uganda on a small scale and needs rapid expansion to meet patient needs. This progression is possible with prudent allocation of resources on strategic equipment purchases, human resources including clinical staff and biomedical staff, and changes to the supply chain management system.