Formalizing argumentative reasoning in a possibilistic logic programming setting with fuzzy unification

Possibilistic Defeasible Logic Programming (P-DeLP) is a logic programming language which combines features from argumentation theory and logic programming, incorporating the treatment of possibilistic uncertainty at the object-language level. In spite of its expressive power, an important limitation in P-DeLP is that imprecise, fuzzy information cannot be expressed in the object language. One interesting alternative for solving this limitation is the use of PGL+, a possibilistic logic over Gödel logic extended with fuzzy constants. Fuzzy constants in PGL+ allow expressing disjunctive information about the unknown value of a variable, in the sense of a magnitude, modelled as a (unary) predicate. The aim of this article is twofold: firstly, we formalize DePGL+, a possibilistic defeasible logic programming language that extends P-DeLP through the use of PGL+ in order to incorporate fuzzy constants and a fuzzy unification mechanism for them. Secondly, we propose a way to handle conflicting arguments in the context of the extended framework.

A logic programming framework for possibilistic argumentation: formalization and logical properties

In the last decade defeasible argumentation frameworks have evolved to become a sound setting to formalize commonsense, qualitative reasoning. The logic programming paradigm has shown to be particularly useful for developing different argument-based frameworks on the basis of different variants of logic programming which incorporate defeasible rules. Most of such frameworks, however, are unable to deal with explicit uncertainty, nor with vague knowledge, as defeasibility is directly encoded in the object language. This paper presents Possibilistic Logic Programming (P-DeLP), a new logic programming language which combines features from argumentation theory and logic programming, incorporating as well the treatment of possibilistic uncertainty. Such features are formalized on the basis of PGL, a possibilistic logic based on G¨odel fuzzy logic. One of the applications of P-DeLP is providing an intelligent agent with non-monotonic, argumentative inference capabilities. In this paper we also provide a better understanding of such capabilities by defining two non-monotonic operators which model the expansion of a given program P by adding new weighed facts associated with argument conclusions and warranted literals, respectively. Different logical properties for the proposed operators are studied

Prediction in forensic science: a critical examination of common understandings

In this commentary, we argue that the term 'prediction' is overly used when in fact, referring to foundational writings of de Finetti, the correspondent term should be inference. In particular, we intend (i) to summarize and clarify relevant subject matter on prediction from established statistical theory, and (ii) point out the logic of this understanding with respect practical uses of the term prediction. Written from an interdisciplinary perspective, associating statistics and forensic science as an example, this discussion also connects to related fields such as medical diagnosis and other areas of application where reasoning based on scientific results is practiced in societal relevant contexts. This includes forensic psychology that uses prediction as part of its vocabulary when dealing with matters that arise in the course of legal proceedings.

Kiinteistön palautetiedon analysointi

Diplomityö käsittelee kiinteistön palautetiedon analysointia. Tässä diplomityössä palautetiedolla tarkoitetaan kiinteistön talotekniikkaan liittyviä teknisiä ja inhimillisiä tietoja, joiden perusteella rakennuksen ja sen tekniikan toimivuudesta voidaan tehdä päätelmiä. Tiedot kerätään järjestelmistä mittauspisteiden kautta etävalvomoon, josta niitä voidaan tarkastella ja edelleen analysoida. Valvomosta saatavan tiedon rinnalle pyritään suunnitteluvaiheessa kokoamaan valvottavasta kohteesta laskennallisia energiankulutusmalleja. Myös kiinteistön asukkaat, rakennuksen ominaisuudet ja ympäristö muodostavat osan palautetiedosta. Kiinteistön palautetieto voidaankin jakaa tekniseen ja inhimilliseen tietoon, ja edelleen analysoinnin kannalta staattiseen tai dynaamiseen tietoon. Tässä diplomityössä selvitettiin palautetiedon keruuta etävalvomolla yhdistämällä tähän rakentamisen laadunvalvonnan työkaluja ja sumeaa logiikkaa. Työn käytännön osio koostuu kiinteistön ja siihen yhdistetyn etävalvomon välillä kulkevan tiedon käsittelystä, mittauspisteiden määrittämisestä ja tietojen analysoinnista. Työssä esitellään kolme esimerkkikohdetta Helsingin seudulta. Työssä laadittiin arviointimalli, joka sisältää kaiken kiinteistön palautetietoon liittyvän aineiston ja sen analysointitavat, sekä erityisesti uutena asiana myös sumeaa logiikkaa. Tiedon analysointi etenee oletusarvojen muodostamisesta, simuloinnin laatimisesta ja sen vertaamisesta todellisiin tietoihin ja edelleen näistä tehtäviin päätelmiin. Tavanomaisten teknisten tietojen lisäksi sumean logiikan avulla tuotiin esille poikkeamia selittäviä tekijöitä mm. kiinteistön asukkaiden ominaisuuksista.

Practical Solutions for Increased Safety in Paper Mill Operations

Tämä diplomityö käsittelee työterveys- ja työturvallisuushallinnan (TTT) sekä ympäristönsuojelun ongelmia ja riskejä, joita tehdasalueen toiminnanharjoittaja kohtaa ulkoistaessaan tehdastoimintojaan ja siirtyessään käyttämään 24 h ulkoisia kunnossapitopalveluja. Teoriaosa selventää ulkoistukseen liittyviä lainmukaisia määräyksiä ja vaatimuksia koskien terveyden, turvallisuuden ja ympäristöongelmien hallintaa sellu-, paperi- ja kartonkitehtaissa Euroopassa, Yhdysvalloissa ja Suomessa. TTT-toiminnan tason sekä ympäristönsuojelun tason mittaamisen ongelmat tuodaan esille. Olemassa olevia kansainvälisiä TTT-johtamisjärjestelmien ja ympäristöjärjestelmien standardeja, riskien hallintatyökaluja ja ohjelmia esitellään lyhyesti. Käytännön osa toteutettiin tapaustutkimuksena, jonka kohteena oli Äänekosken tehdaskombinaatti ja kemianteollisuuden laitos, Noviant CMC Oy. TTT-hallintatoimien ja ympäristönsuojelun ongelmia tutkitaan tehdastoimintoja ulkoistettaessa. Integroidun johtamisjärjestelmän auditointimenettelyt, ulkoistuksen kohdealueet, pk-yrityksien riskien hallinta ja ulkoisten työntekijöiden turvallisuuskoulutus ovat erityisen tarkastelun alla. Käyttäen hyväksi kerättyä TTT- ja ympäristöaineistoa, suunniteltiin malli ja sisältöehdotus uudelle internet-selain tyyppiselle työkalulle TTT- ja ympäristöasioiden hallinnan avuksi. Työkalu on tarkoitettu palvelemaan Noviant CMC Oy:n eri sidosryhmien tarpeita. Diplomityön käytännön osa muodostaa pohjan JP MILLSAFE - pilottiprojektille, joka käynnistettiin internet-selain tyyppisen turvallisuuspalvelusovelluksen kehittämiseksi palvelemaan Äänekosken tehdaskombinaatin eri sidosryhmien tarpeita.

Les composantes du risque : une entrée par les acteurs et le conflit lors de la mise en place des solutions : le cas de Los Chorros, Guatemala

Ce travail présente une étude de cas post-catastrophe à San Cristobal, Guatemala, où un important glissement de terrain du nom «Los Chorros» (8-10 millions de m3 de roche) affecte depuis 2009 diverses communautés et une des routes principales du pays. Les gestionnaires des risques, sur la base de leur propre évaluation, ont décidé de répondre d'une manière qui ne correspond pas aux intérêts de la population affectée. Les communautés locales ont évalué le risque de catastrophe et ont établi une autre solution suivant une conception du risque différente. Les conflits sociaux et la concurrence entre les différents acteurs du territoire, pour la définition des priorités et des solutions, révèlent les aspects sous-jacents de la société, utiles pour identifier et comprendre ce qui constitue le risque de catastrophe dans un contexte donné. Ce conflit montre que le risque de catastrophe n'est pas univoque mais un concept complexe, constitué par un grand nombre de composants. En termes de gouvernance, il met également en évidence la confrontation des savoirs et la tension qui peut exister entre les différentes approches du risque. Depuis une approche où le risque de catastrophe est considéré comme une construction sociale (les vulnérabilités étant historiquement générées par des processus sociaux, politiques, économiques et culturels), ce travail évalue d'autres modes d'interprétation, de traitement et d'intervention qui peuvent aider à améliorer les méthodes d'évaluation et de gestion des risques. Enfin, la proposition de gestion qui découle de l'exemple guatémaltèque invite à une autre manière de concevoir la gestion des risques en intégrant les différentes conceptions du risque et en visant une coordination stratégique entre les acteurs des politiques publiques, les échelles d'intervention, les experts en charge des différents aléas et la société civile, afin d'obtenir une solution acceptable pour tous les acteurs impliqués dans un territoire. -- This work analyses a post-disaster case study from San Cristobal, Guatemala where a large landslide named "Los Chorros (8 millions cubic meters of rock) affects several communities and one of the country's main west-east access highways. Risk managers, starting from their own assessment, decided to respond in a way that does not correspond to the interests of the afected population. Local communities assessed the risk disaster situation and establised another solution from a different conception of risk. These social conflict and competition for priorities and solutions for risk management reveal that disaster risk is not unequivocal but a complex and holistic concept, constituted by a large set of components. From a social constructivism approach, where disaster risk is considered as the results of social, political, economic and historic process, this thesis evaluates other modes of interpreting, shaping and managing risk that can help improve methods of risk assessment and management. Studying the logic of action of actors, who mobilize to establish a solution, enables to identify as to what constitutes a disaster. For this reason, the study focus, in particular, on the analysis of practices (practical science) implemented by all actors in San Cristobal Altaverapaz. Finally, it puts into perspective the risk management in terms of an integrative approach for policy experts that find compromise between different conceptions of risk in order to obtain a solution acceptable to all those involved.

Toimitusketjun kehittäminen logistiikkaintegraattorin avulla

Globaalissa taloudessa yritysten rakenteet ovat kehittyneet yhteistyöverkostoiksi, joissa yritykset pyrkivät keskittymään ydinosaamiseensa ja tuottamaan muut toiminnot yhteistyökumppaneilla. Nykyisin yhä suurempi osa myös logistisista toiminnoista tuotetaan kolmansilla osapuolilla. Logistiikan piirissä saavutettavat synergiaedut ovat suuret ja monet yritykset niitä ovat myös jo saavuttaneet. Menestyksekkäät esimerkit ulkoistamisista ja toisaalta kehittyvän tietotekniikan tuomat uudet toimintamahdollisuudet johtavat ulkoistamisen, 3PL toiminnan, entistäkin suurempaan suosioon. Ongelmaksi on yrityksille muodostunut yhteistyökumppaneiden suuri määrä. Kun ydinosaamisalueen ulkopuolisia tehtäviä on jaettu useille eri yritykselle, tulee yhteistyöverkoston hallinnasta haasteellinen tehtävä, ja siihen vaaditaan kalliita tietojärjestelmiä. Kustannusten säästö saattoi kuitenkin olla ulkoistaneen yrityksen motiivi! Kaiken lisäksi toimitusketjun hallinnan periaatteiden mukaisesti tiukka toimitusketjun sisäinen koordinointi on välttämättömyys arvoprosessin tehokkuuudelle. Tutkimuksen tarkoituksena on selvittää 4PL toimintamallin logiikka, sekä kuinka sitä voidaan käyttää ratkaisemaan 3PL toiminnan ongelmakohtia. Case osuudessa esitellään kahden haastateluin selvitetyn logistiikkaintegraattorin toiminta ja tarkastellaan niiden toiminnan pohjalta teoreettista mallia. Tutkimuksen toisena päätavoitteena on selvittää toimitusketjun hallinnan periaatteet kehitettäessä toimitusketjua sekä tutkia 4PL toimintamallia näiden teorioiden valossa. Tutkielmassa esitetään toimitusketjun hallinnan integraatiofilosofian mukaiset periaatteet, jossa integroidaan toimitusketjun 8 avainprosessia. Tutkimuksen tulokset osoittavat, että joint venture yrityksenä perustettavan logistiikkaintegraattorin käyttö toimitusketjussa voi parantaa ennenkaikkea koordinointiongelmia, pienentää logistisia kustannuksia, sekä tehokkaasti vähentää niitä ongelmia, joita kolmannen osapuolen palveluntarjoajien käyttö yritykselle aiheuttaa. Tutkimuksessa esitetään myös kuinka logistiikkaintegraattorin toimintaperiaatteita voidaan laajentaa arvoketjuintegraattoriksi ja kuinka se voi auttaa toimitusketjun avainprosessien integroinnissa, synergiaetujen hyödyntämisessä ja koko toimitusketjun tehokkaassa hallinnassa.

Practical guidance and considerations for transitioning patients from oxcarbazepine or carbamazepine to eslicarbazepine acetate--Expert opinion.

There is currently a lack of guidance on methodology and special considerations for transitioning patients from oxcarbazepine (OXC) or carbamazepine (CBZ) to eslicarbazepine acetate (ESL), if deemed clinically necessary. An advisory panel of epilepsy experts was convened to share their experience on the use of adjunctive ESL in clinical practice and to provide practical recommendations to help address this gap. When changing over from OXC to ESL, an OXC:ESL dose ratio of 1:1 should be employed to calculate the ESL target dose, and the changeover can take place overnight. No changes to comedication are required. Since CBZ has a different mechanism of action to ESL and is a stronger inducer of cytochrome P450 (CYP) enzymes, the transitioning of patients from CBZ to ESL requires careful consideration on a patient-by-patient basis. In general, a CBZ:ESL dose ratio of 1:1.3 should be employed to calculate the ESL target dose, and patients should be transitioned over a minimum period of 1-2weeks. Special considerations include adjustment of titration schedule and target dose in elderly patients and those with hepatic or renal impairment and potential adjustment of comedications metabolized by CYP enzymes. In summary, due to structural distinctions between ESL, OXC, and CBZ, which affect mechanism of action and tolerability, there are clinical situations in which it may be appropriate to consider transitioning patients from OXC or CBZ to ESL. Changing patients over from OXC to ESL is generally more straightforward than transitioning patients from CBZ to ESL, which requires careful consideration.

How to Prepare a Patient for Transarterial Radioembolization? A Practical Guide.

Transarterial radioembolization consist in delivering small particles loaded with Yttrium90, a pure beta emitter, in order to treat primary and secondary liver tumors. This treatment needs precaution since inadequate delivery of these beads can lead to severe complications. Moreover, a precise radiation dosing is crucial to achieve a good clinical success and to avoid complications such as radioembolization-induced liver disease. This review describes all the precautions and highlights clinical and technical considerations that need to be taken to avoid complications.

Differences in seasonal price patterns among second home rentals and hotels: Empirical evidence and practical implications

Hotels and second home rentals are two of the most important tourist accommodation options in Spain. In terms of seasonality, almost all previous studies have analysed tourism demand from the point of view either of total arrivals or the number of tourists lodged in a single accommodation type (hotels, rural accommodation, etc). However, there are no studies focusing on price seasonality orcomparing seasonality among different accommodation types. By using seasonality indicators and a price index constructed by means of hedonic methods, this paper aims to shed some light on seasonal pricing patterns among second home rentals and hotels. The paper relies on a 2004 database of 144 hotels and 1,002 apartments on the Costa Brava (northeast Spain). The results show that prices for second home rentals display a smoother seasonal pattern than hotels due to reduced price differences between shoulder (May and October) and peak periods (August)

Evaluation du risque de récidive dans les expertises pénales: quels outils? Quets indicateurs? Quelles pratiques [Risk assessment in forensic psychiatric reports: what kind assessment instrument? What indicator? What practical?].

Here we present results of studies conducted by the Research Unit of Legal Psychiatry and Psychology of Lausanne about risk assessment and protective factors in the evaluation of violence recidivism. It aims to help experts in considering the relevance and use of tools at their disposal. Particular attention is given to the significance of protective factors and impulsive dimensions, as to the inter-raters process that leads to the final deliberations.

Validity of silhouette showcards as a measure of body size and obesity in a population in the African region : a practical research tool for general-purpose surveys.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study is to validate the Pulvers silhouette showcard as a measure of weight status in a population in the African region. This tool is particularly beneficial when scarce resources do not allow for direct anthropometric measurements due to limited survey time or lack of measurement technology in face-to-face general-purpose surveys or in mailed, online, or mobile device-based surveys. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted in the Republic of Seychelles with a sample of 1240 adults. We compared self-reported body sizes measured by Pulvers' silhouette showcards to four measurements of body size and adiposity: body mass index (BMI), body fat percent measured, waist circumference, and waist to height ratio. The accuracy of silhouettes as an obesity indicator was examined using sex-specific receiver operator curve (ROC) analysis and the reliability of this tool to detect socioeconomic gradients in obesity was compared to BMI-based measurements. RESULTS: Our study supports silhouette body size showcards as a valid and reliable survey tool to measure self-reported body size and adiposity in an African population. The mean correlation coefficients of self-reported silhouettes with measured BMI were 0.80 in men and 0.81 in women (P < 0.001). The silhouette showcards also showed high accuracy for detecting obesity as per a BMI ≥ 30 (Area under curve, AUC: 0.91/0.89, SE: 0.01), which was comparable to other measured adiposity indicators: fat percent (AUC: 0.94/0.94, SE: 0.01), waist circumference (AUC: 0.95/0.94, SE: 0.01), and waist to height ratio (AUC: 0.95/0.94, SE: 0.01) amongst men and women, respectively. The use of silhouettes in detecting obesity differences among different socioeconomic groups resulted in similar magnitude, direction, and significance of association between obesity and socioeconomic status as when using measured BMI. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the validity and reliability of silhouettes as a survey tool for measuring obesity in a population in the African region. The ease of use and cost-effectiveness of this tool makes it an attractive alternative to measured BMI in the design of non-face-to-face online- or mobile device-based surveys as well as in-person general-purpose surveys of obesity in social sciences, where limited resources do not allow for direct anthropometric measurements.

Eye lens monitoring for interventional radiology personnel: dosemeters, calibration and practical aspects of H p (3) monitoring. A 2015 review.

A thorough literature review about the current situation on the implementation of eye lens monitoring has been performed in order to provide recommendations regarding dosemeter types, calibration procedures and practical aspects of eye lens monitoring for interventional radiology personnel. Most relevant data and recommendations from about 100 papers have been analysed and classified in the following topics: challenges of today in eye lens monitoring; conversion coefficients, phantoms and calibration procedures for eye lens dose evaluation; correction factors and dosemeters for eye lens dose measurements; dosemeter position and influence of protective devices. The major findings of the review can be summarised as follows: the recommended operational quantity for the eye lens monitoring is H p (3). At present, several dosemeters are available for eye lens monitoring and calibration procedures are being developed. However, in practice, very often, alternative methods are used to assess the dose to the eye lens. A summary of correction factors found in the literature for the assessment of the eye lens dose is provided. These factors can give an estimation of the eye lens dose when alternative methods, such as the use of a whole body dosemeter, are used. A wide range of values is found, thus indicating the large uncertainty associated with these simplified methods. Reduction factors from most common protective devices obtained experimentally and using Monte Carlo calculations are presented. The paper concludes that the use of a dosemeter placed at collar level outside the lead apron can provide a useful first estimate of the eye lens exposure. However, for workplaces with estimated annual equivalent dose to the eye lens close to the dose limit, specific eye lens monitoring should be performed. Finally, training of the involved medical staff on the risks of ionising radiation for the eye lens and on the correct use of protective systems is strongly recommended.

A medição da grandeza practical peak voltage na prática radiológica

OBJETIVO: O objetivo deste trabalho foi estudar a grandeza practical peak voltage (PPV), determinada a partir da forma de onda de tensão aplicada a tubos radiológicos, e compará-la com algumas definições de kVp para diferentes tipos de geradores: monofásico (onda completa, clínico), trifásico (seis pulsos, clínico) e potencial constante (industrial). MATERIAIS E MÉTODOS: O trabalho envolveu a comparação do PPV medido invasivamente (utilizando um divisor de tensão) com a resposta de dois medidores comerciais não invasivos, além dos valores de outras grandezas usadas para medição da tensão de pico aplicada ao tubo de raios X, e a análise da variação do PPV com a ondulação percentual da tensão (ripple). RESULTADOS: Verificou-se que a diferença entre o PPV e as definições mais comuns de tensão de pico aumenta com o ripple. Os valores de PPV variaram em até 3% e 5%, respectivamente, na comparação entre medições invasivas e não invasivas feitas com os equipamentos trifásico e monofásico. CONCLUSÃO: Os resultados demonstraram que a principal grandeza de influência que afeta o PPV é o ripple da tensão. Adicionalmente, valores de PPV obtidos com medidores não invasivos devem ser avaliados considerando que eles dependem da taxa de aquisição e da forma de onda adquirida pelo instrumento.