Estimation of R(0) from the initial phase of an outbreak of a vector-borne infection

The magnitude of the basic reproduction ratio R(0) of an epidemic can be estimated in several ways, namely, from the final size of the epidemic, from the average age at first infection, or from the initial growth phase of the outbreak. In this paper, we discuss this last method for estimating R(0) for vector-borne infections. Implicit in these models is the assumption that there is an exponential phase of the outbreaks, which implies that in all cases R(0) > 1. We demonstrate that an outbreak is possible, even in cases where R(0) is less than one, provided that the vector-to-human component of R(0) is greater than one and that a certain number of infected vectors are introduced into the affected population. This theory is applied to two real epidemiological dengue situations in the southeastern part of Brazil, one where R(0) is less than one, and other one where R(0) is greater than one. In both cases, the model mirrors the real situations with reasonable accuracy.

Experimental infection with Rangelia vitalii in dogs: Acute phase, parasitemia, biological cycle, clinical-pathological aspects and treatment

Recently we conducted the molecular characterization of Rangelia vitalii, a protozoan with high pathogenicity for young dogs in southern Brazil. To date, the descriptions of the disease have been restricted to natural infection cases. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the parasitemia, biological cycles and clinical-pathological findings in dogs experimentally infected with R. vitalii in the acute phase of disease, and also aimed to test a therapeutic protocol based on the diminazene aceturate. For this study, we used 12 young dogs (females), separated into two groups. Group A was composed of healthy dogs, not-infected (n = 5), and Group B consisted of animals infected with R. vitalii (n = 7). After infection, the animals were monitored by blood smear examinations, which showed intra-erythrocytic forms of the parasite 5 days post-infection (PI). Parasitemia increased progressively in these animals and had the highest peak of circulating parasites between 9 and 11 days PI. Subsequently, the parasitemia reduced and the protozoan was seen inside the leukocytes in days 17, 19 and 21 PI. The most prominent clinical signs observed at the 20 day PI of experiment were lethargy, fever and anorexia. We observed a decrease of hematocrit of infected animals compared with not-infected dogs, featuring a moderate anemia. Pathological evaluation of one dog in Group B at day 21 PI revealed splenomegaly, hepatomegaly, lymphadenopathy, and hemorrhages at necropsy. Histological examination showed only follicular hyperplasia in the spleen and lymph nodes, and the etiologic agent in the vascular endothelium. At 21 days PI, it was performed the treatment of dogs in Group B (n = 6) with a single dose of diminazene aceturate, which showed a curative efficacy of 100% in cleaning R. vitalii from blood of infected dogs. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

High-pressure phase diagram of the drug mitotane in compressed and/or supercritical CO(2)

This work provides experimental phase diagram of mitotane, a drug used in the chemotherapy treatment of adrenocortical carcinoma, in compressed and/or supercritical CO(2). The synthetic-static method in a high-pressure variable-volume view cell coupled with a transmitted-light intensity probe was used to measure the solid-fluid (SF) equilibrium data. The phase equilibrium experiments were determined in temperature ranging from (298.2 to 333.1) K and pressure up to 22 MPa. Peng-Robinson equation of state (PR-EoS) with classical mixing rule was used to correlate the experimental data. Excellent agreement was found between experimental and calculated values. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling basin level allocation of water in the Murray-Darling Basin in a world of uncertainty, Murray-Darling Program Working Papers WPM05-1, Risk and Sustainable Management Group, 8 February 2005

Abstract: The Murray-Darling Basin comprises over 1 million km2; it lies within four states and one territory; and over 12, 800 GL of irrigation water is used to produce over 40% of the nation's gross value of agricultural production. This production is used by a diverse collection of some-times mutually exclusive commodities (e.g. pasture; stone fruit; grapes; cotton and field crops). The supply of water for irrigation is subject to climatic and policy uncertainty. Variable inflows mean that water property rights do not provide a guaranteed supply. With increasing public scrutiny and environmental issues facing irrigators, greater pressure is being placed on this finite resource. The uncertainty of the water supply, water quality (salinity), combined with where water is utilised, while attempting to maximising return for investment makes for an interesting research field. The utilisation and comparison of a GAMS and Excel based modelling approach has been used to ask: where should we allocate water?; amongst what commodities?; and how does this affect both the quantity of water and the quality of water along the Murray-Darling river system?