930 resultados para nested Archimedean copulas
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Background Foot ulceration is the main precursor to lower limb amputation in patients with type 2 diabetes worldwide. Biomechanical factors have been implicated in the development of foot ulceration; however the association of these factors to ulcer healing remains less clear. It may be hypothesised that abnormalities in temporal spatial parameters (stride to stride measurements), kinematics (joint movements), kinetics (forces on the lower limb) and plantar pressures (pressure placed on the foot during walking) contribute to foot ulcer healing. The primary aim of this study is to establish the biomechanical characteristics (temporal spatial parameters, kinematics, kinetics and plantar pressures) of patients with plantar neuropathic foot ulcers compared to controls without a history of foot ulcers. The secondary aim is to assess the same biomechanical characteristics in patients with foot ulcers and controls over-time to assess whether these characteristics remain the same or change throughout ulcer healing. Methods/Design The design is a case–control study nested in a six-month longitudinal study. Cases will be participants with active plantar neuropathic foot ulcers (DFU group). Controls will consist of patients with type 2 diabetes (DMC group) and healthy participants (HC group) with no history of foot ulceration. Standardised gait and plantar pressure protocols will be used to collect biomechanical data at baseline, three and six months. Descriptive variables and primary and secondary outcome variables will be compared between the three groups at baseline and follow-up. Discussion It is anticipated that the findings from this longitudinal study will provide important information regarding the biomechanical characteristic of type 2 diabetes patients with neuropathic foot ulcers. We hypothesise that people with foot ulcers will demonstrate a significantly compromised gait pattern (reduced temporal spatial parameters, kinematics and kinetics) at base line and then throughout the follow-up period compared to controls. The study may provide evidence for the design of gait-retraining, neuro-muscular conditioning and other approaches to off-load the limbs of those with foot ulcers in order to reduce the mechanical loading on the foot during gait and promote ulcer healing.
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A new form of a multi-step transversal linearization (MTL) method is developed and numerically explored in this study for a numeric-analytical integration of non-linear dynamical systems under deterministic excitations. As with other transversal linearization methods, the present version also requires that the linearized solution manifold transversally intersects the non-linear solution manifold at a chosen set of points or cross-section in the state space. However, a major point of departure of the present method is that it has the flexibility of treating non-linear damping and stiffness terms of the original system as damping and stiffness terms in the transversally linearized system, even though these linearized terms become explicit functions of time. From this perspective, the present development is closely related to the popular practice of tangent-space linearization adopted in finite element (FE) based solutions of non-linear problems in structural dynamics. The only difference is that the MTL method would require construction of transversal system matrices in lieu of the tangent system matrices needed within an FE framework. The resulting time-varying linearized system matrix is then treated as a Lie element using Magnus’ characterization [W. Magnus, On the exponential solution of differential equations for a linear operator, Commun. Pure Appl. Math., VII (1954) 649–673] and the associated fundamental solution matrix (FSM) is obtained through repeated Lie-bracket operations (or nested commutators). An advantage of this approach is that the underlying exponential transformation could preserve certain intrinsic structural properties of the solution of the non-linear problem. Yet another advantage of the transversal linearization lies in the non-unique representation of the linearized vector field – an aspect that has been specifically exploited in this study to enhance the spectral stability of the proposed family of methods and thus contain the temporal propagation of local errors. A simple analysis of the formal orders of accuracy is provided within a finite dimensional framework. Only a limited numerical exploration of the method is presently provided for a couple of popularly known non-linear oscillators, viz. a hardening Duffing oscillator, which has a non-linear stiffness term, and the van der Pol oscillator, which is self-excited and has a non-linear damping term.
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The aim of the study was to examine the influence of school smoking policy and school smoking prevention programs on the smoking behaviour of students in high schools in Prince Edward Island using the School Health Action Planning Evaluation System (SHAPES). A total sample included 13,131 observations of students in grades 10-12 in ten high schools in Prince Edward Island over three waves of data collection (1999, 2000, and 2001). Changes in prevalence of smoking and factors influencing smoking behaviour were analyzed using descriptive statistics and Chi-Square tests. Multi-level logistic regression analyses were used to examine how both school and student characteristics were associated with smoking behaviour (I, II, III, IV). Since students were located within schools, a basic 2-level nested structure was used in which individual students (level 1) were nested within schools (level 2). For grade 12 students, the combination of both school policies and programs was not associated with the risk of smoking and the presence of the new policy was not associated with decreased risk of smoking, unless there were clear rules in place (I). For the grade 10 study, (II) schools with both policies and programs were not associated with decreased risk of smoking. However, the smoking behaviour of older students (grade 12) at a school was associated with younger students’ (grade 10) smoking behaviour. Students first enrolled in a high school in grade 9, rather than grade 10, were at increased risk of occasional smoking. For students who transitioned from grade 10 to 12 (III), close friends smoking had a substantial influence on smoking behaviour for both males and females (III). Having one or more close friends who smoke (Odds Ratio (OR) = 37.46; 95% CI = 19.39 to 72.36), one or more smokers in the home (OR = 2.35; 95% CI = 1.67 to 3.30) and seeing teachers and staff smoking on or near school property (OR=1.78; 95% CI = 1.13 to 2.80), were strongly associated with increased risk of smoking for grade 12 students. Smoking behaviour increased for both junior (Group 1) and senior (Group 2) students (IV). Group 1 students indicated a greater decrease in smoking behaviour and factors influencing smoking behaviour compared to those of Group 2. Students overestimating the percentage of youth their age who smoke was strongly associated with increased likelihood of smoking. Smoking rates showed a decreasing trend (1999, 2000, and 2001). However, policies and programs alone were not successful in influencing smoking behaviour of youth. Rather, factors within the students and schools contextual environment influenced smoking behaviour. Comprehensive approaches are required for school-based tobacco prevention interventions. Keywords: schools, policy, programs, smoking prevention, adolescents Subject Terms: school-based programming, public health, health promotion
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Modern-day weather forecasting is highly dependent on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models as the main data source. The evolving state of the atmosphere with time can be numerically predicted by solving a set of hydrodynamic equations, if the initial state is known. However, such a modelling approach always contains approximations that by and large depend on the purpose of use and resolution of the models. Present-day NWP systems operate with horizontal model resolutions in the range from about 40 km to 10 km. Recently, the aim has been to reach operationally to scales of 1 4 km. This requires less approximations in the model equations, more complex treatment of physical processes and, furthermore, more computing power. This thesis concentrates on the physical parameterization methods used in high-resolution NWP models. The main emphasis is on the validation of the grid-size-dependent convection parameterization in the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) and on a comprehensive intercomparison of radiative-flux parameterizations. In addition, the problems related to wind prediction near the coastline are addressed with high-resolution meso-scale models. The grid-size-dependent convection parameterization is clearly beneficial for NWP models operating with a dense grid. Results show that the current convection scheme in HIRLAM is still applicable down to a 5.6 km grid size. However, with further improved model resolution, the tendency of the model to overestimate strong precipitation intensities increases in all the experiment runs. For the clear-sky longwave radiation parameterization, schemes used in NWP-models provide much better results in comparison with simple empirical schemes. On the other hand, for the shortwave part of the spectrum, the empirical schemes are more competitive for producing fairly accurate surface fluxes. Overall, even the complex radiation parameterization schemes used in NWP-models seem to be slightly too transparent for both long- and shortwave radiation in clear-sky conditions. For cloudy conditions, simple cloud correction functions are tested. In case of longwave radiation, the empirical cloud correction methods provide rather accurate results, whereas for shortwave radiation the benefit is only marginal. Idealised high-resolution two-dimensional meso-scale model experiments suggest that the reason for the observed formation of the afternoon low level jet (LLJ) over the Gulf of Finland is an inertial oscillation mechanism, when the large-scale flow is from the south-east or west directions. The LLJ is further enhanced by the sea-breeze circulation. A three-dimensional HIRLAM experiment, with a 7.7 km grid size, is able to generate a similar LLJ flow structure as suggested by the 2D-experiments and observations. It is also pointed out that improved model resolution does not necessary lead to better wind forecasts in the statistical sense. In nested systems, the quality of the large-scale host model is really important, especially if the inner meso-scale model domain is small.
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Background There is a strong link between antibiotic consumption and the rate of antibiotic resistance. In Australia, the vast majority of antibiotics are prescribed by general practitioners, and the most common indication is for acute respiratory infections. The aim of this study is to assess if implementing a package of integrated, multifaceted interventions reduces antibiotic prescribing for acute respiratory infections in general practice. Methods/design This is a cluster randomised trial comparing two parallel groups of general practitioners in 28 urban general practices in Queensland, Australia: 14 intervention and 14 control practices. The protocol was peer-reviewed by content experts who were nominated by the funding organization. This study evaluates an integrated, multifaceted evidence-based package of interventions implemented over a six month period. The included interventions, which have previously been demonstrated to be effective at reducing antibiotic prescribing for acute respiratory infections, are: delayed prescribing; patient decision aids; communication training; commitment to a practice prescribing policy for antibiotics; patient information leaflet; and near patient testing with C-reactive protein. In addition, two sub-studies are nested in the main study: (1) point prevalence estimation carriage of bacterial upper respiratory pathogens in practice staff and asymptomatic patients; (2) feasibility of direct measures of antibiotic resistance by nose/throat swabbing. The main outcome data are from Australia’s national health insurance scheme, Medicare, which will be accessed after the completion of the intervention phase. They include the number of antibiotic prescriptions and the number of patient visits per general practitioner for periods before and during the intervention. The incidence of antibiotic prescriptions will be modelled using the numbers of patients as the denominator and seasonal and other factors as explanatory variables. Results will compare the change in prescription rates before and during the intervention in the two groups of practices. Semi-structured interviews will be conducted with the general practitioners and practice staff (practice nurse and/or practice manager) from the intervention practices on conclusion of the intervention phase to assess the feasibility and uptake of the interventions. An economic evaluation will be conducted to estimate the costs of implementing the package, and its cost-effectiveness in terms of cost per unit reduction in prescribing. Discussion The results on the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, acceptability and feasibility of this package of interventions will inform the policy for any national implementation.
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The quantity of fruit consumed by dispersers is highly variable among individuals within plant populations. The outcome Of Such selection operated by firugivores has been examined mostly with respect to changing spatial contexts. The influence of varying temporal contexts on frugivore choice, and their possible demographic and evolutionary consequences is poorly understood. We examined if temporal variation in fruit availability across a hierarchy of nested temporal levels (interannual, intraseasonal, 120 h, 24 h) altered frugivore choice for a complex seed dispersal system in dry tropical forests of southern India. The interactions between Phyllanthus emblica and its primary disperser (ruminants) was mediated by another frugivore (a primate),which made large quantities of fruit available on the ground to ruminants. The direction and strength of crop size and neighborhood effects on this interaction varied with changing temporal contexts.Fruit availability was higher in the first of the two study years, and at the start of the season in both years. Fruit persistence on trees,determined by primate foraging, was influenced by crop size andconspecific neighborhood densities only in the high fruit availability year. Fruit removal by ruminants was influenced by crop size in both years and neighborhood densities only in the high availability year. In both years, these effects were stronger at the start of the season.Intraseasonal reduction in fruit availability diminished inequalities in fruit removal by ruminants and the influence of crop size and fruiting neighborhoods. All trees were not equally attractive to frugivores in a P. emblica population at all points of time. Temporal asymmetry in frugivore-mediated selection could reduce potential for co-evolution between firugivores and plants by diluting selective pressures. Inter-dependencies; formed between disparate animal consumers can add additional levels of complexity to plant-frugivore mutualistic networks and have potential reproductive consequences for specific individuals within populations.
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This study investigates how the religious community as a socialization context affects the development of young people's religious identity and values, using Finnish Seventh-day Adventism as a context for the case study. The research problem is investigated through the following questions: (1) What aspects support the intergenerational transmission of values and tradition in religious home education? (2) What is the role of social capital and the social networks of the religious community in the religious socialization process? (3) How does the religious composition of the peer group at school (e.g., a denominational school in comparison to a mainstream school) affect these young people s social relations and choices and their religious identity (as challenged versus as reinforced by values at school)? And (4) How do the young people studied negotiate their religious values and religious membership in the diverse social contexts of the society at large? The mixed method study includes both quantitative and qualitative data sets (3 surveys: n=106 young adults, n=100 teenagers, n=55 parents; 2 sets of interviews: n=10 young adults and n=10 teenagers; and fieldwork data from youth summer camps). The results indicate that, in religious home education, the relationship between parents and children, the parental example of a personally meaningful way of life, and encouraging critical thinking in order for young people to make personalized value choices were important factors in socialization. Overall, positive experiences of the religion and the religious community were crucial in providing direction for later choices of values and affiliations. Education that was experienced as either too severe or too permissive was not regarded as a positive influence for accepting similar values and lifestyle choices to those of the parents. Furthermore, the religious community had an important influence on these young people s religious socialization in terms of the commitment to denominational values and lifestyle and in providing them with religious identity and rooting them in the social network of the denomination. The network of the religious community generated important social resources, or social capital, for both the youth and their families, involving both tangible and intangible benefits, and bridging and bonding effects. However, the study also illustrates the sometimes difficult negotiations the youth face in navigating between differentiation and belonging when there is a tension between the values of a minority group and the larger society, and one wants to and does belong to both. It also demonstrates the variety within both the majority and the minority communities in society, as well as the many different ways one can find a personally meaningful way of being an Adventist. In the light of the previous literature about socialization-in-context in an increasingly pluralistic society, the findings were examined at four levels: individual, family, community and societal. These were seen as both a nested structure and as constructing a funnel in which each broader level directs the influences that reach the narrower ones. The societal setting directs the position and operation of religious communities, families and individuals, and the influences that reach the developing children and young people are in many ways directed by societal, communal and family characteristics. These levels are by nature constantly changing, as well as being constructed of different parts, like the pieces of a jigsaw puzzle, each of which alters in significance: for some negotiations on values and memberships the parental influence may be greater, whereas for others the peer group influences are. Although agency does remain somewhat connected to others, the growing youth are gradually able to take more responsibility for their own choices and their agency plays a crucial role in the process of choosing values and group memberships. Keywords: youth, community, Adventism, socialization, values, identity negotiations
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Background: Butterflies of the subtribe Mycalesina (Nymphalidae: Satyrinae) are important model organisms in ecology and evolution. This group has radiated spectacularly in the Old World tropics and presents an exciting opportunity to better understand processes of invertebrate rapid radiations. However, the generic-level taxonomy of the subtribe has been in a constant state of flux, and relationships among genera are unknown. There are six currently recognized genera in the group. Mycalesis, Lohora and Nirvanopsis are found in the Oriental region, the first of which is the most speciose genus among mycalesines, and extends into the Australasian region. Hallelesis and Bicyclus are found in mainland Africa, while Heteropsis is primarily Madagascan, with a few species in Africa. We infer the phylogeny of the group with data from three genes (total of 3139 bp) and use these data to reconstruct events in the biogeographic history of the group.,Results: The results indicate that the group Mycalesina radiated rapidly around the Oligocene-Miocene boundary. Basal relationships are unresolved, but we recover six well-supported clades. Some species of Mycalesis are nested within a primarily Madagascan clade of Heteropsis,while Nirvanopsis is nested within Lohora. The phylogeny suggests that the group had its origin either in Asia or Africa, and diversified through dispersals between the two regions, during the late Oligocene and early Miocene. The current dataset tentatively suggests that the Madagascan fauna comprises two independent radiations. The Australasian radiation shares a common ancestor derived from Asia. We discuss factors that are likely to have played a key role in the diversification of the group. Conclusions: We propose a significantly revised classification scheme for Mycalesina. We conclude that the group originated and radiated from an ancestor that was found either in Asia or Africa, with dispersals between the two regions and to Australasia. Our phylogeny paves the way for further comparative studies on this group that will help us understand the processes underlying diversification in rapid radiations of invertebrates.
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This paper presents an SIMD machine which has been tuned to execute low-level vision algorithms employing the relaxation labeling paradigm. Novel features of the design include: 1. (1) a communication scheme capable of window accessing under a single instruction. 2. (2) flexible I/O instructions to load overlapped data segments; and 3. (3) data-conditional instructions which can be nested to an arbitrary degree. A time analysis of the stereo correspondence problem, as implemented on a simulated version of the machine using the probabilistic relaxation technique, shows a speed up of almost N2 for an N × N array of PEs.
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Represented by approximately 85 species, Hemidactylus is one of the most diverse and widely distributed genera of reptiles in the world. In the Indian subcontinent, this genus is represented by 28 species out of which at least 13 are endemic to this region. Here, we report the phylogeny of the Indian Hemidactylus geckos based on mitochondrial and nuclear DNA markers sequenced from multiple individuals of widely distributed as well as endemic congeners of India. Results indicate that a majority of the species distributed in India form a distinct clade whose members are largely confined to the Indian subcontinent thus representing a unique Indian radiation. The remaining Hemidactylus geckos of India belong to two other geographical clades representing the Southeast Asian and West-Asian arid zone species. Additionally, the three widely distributed, commensal species (H. brookii, H. frenatus and H. flaviviridis) are nested within the Indian radiation suggesting their Indian origin. Dispersal-vicariance analysis also supports their Indian origin and subsequent dispersal out-of-India into West-Asian arid zone and Southeast Asia. Thus, Indian subcontinent has served as an important arena for diversification amongst the Hemidactylus geckos and in the evolution and spread of its commensal geckos. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Factor V Leiden (FV Leiden) is the most common inherited thrombophilia in Caucasians increasing the risk for venous thrombosis. Its prevalence in Finland is 2-3%. FV Leiden has also been associated with several pregnancy complications. However, the importance of FV Leiden as their risk factor is unclear. The aim of the study was to assess FV Leiden as a risk factor for pregnancy complications in which prothrombotic mechanisms may play a part. Specifically, the study aimed to assess the magnitude of the risk, if any, associated with FV Leiden for pregnancy-associated venous thrombosis, pre-eclampsia, unexplained stillbirth, and preterm birth. The study was conducted as a nested case-control study within a fixed cohort of 100,000 consecutive pregnant women in Finland. The study was approved by the ethics committee of the Finnish Red Cross Blood Service and by the Ministry of Social Affairs and Health. All participants gave written informed consent. Cases and controls were identified by using national registers. The diagnoses of the 100,000 women identified from the National Register of Blood Group and Blood Group Antibodies of Pregnant Women were obtained from the National Hospital Discharge Register. Participants gave blood samples for DNA tests and filled in questionnaires. The medical records of the participants were reviewed in 49 maternity hospitals in Finland. Genotyping was performed in the Finnish Genome Center. When evaluating pregnancy-associated venous thrombosis (34 cases, 641 controls), FV Leiden was associated with 11-fold risk (OR 11.6, 95% CI 3.6-33.6). When only analyzing women with first venous thrombosis, the risk was 6-fold (OR 5.8, 95% CI 1.6-21.8). The risk was increased by common risk factors, the risk being highest in women with FV Leiden and pre-pregnancy BMI over 30 kg/m2 (75-fold), and in women with FV Leiden and age over 35 years (60-fold). When evaluating pre-eclampsia (248 cases, 679 controls), FV Leiden was associated with a trend of increased risk (OR 1.7, 95% CI 0.8-3.9), but the association was not statistically significant. When evaluating unexplained stillbirth (44 cases, 776 controls), FV Leiden was associated with over 3-fold risk (OR 3.8, 95% CI 1.2-11.6). When evaluating preterm birth (324 cases, 752 controls), FV Leiden was associated with over 2-fold risk (OR 2.4, 95% CI 1.3-4.6). FV Leiden was especially associated with late preterm birth (32-36 weeks of gestation), but not with early preterm birth (< 32 weeks of gestation). The results of this large population-based study can be generalized to Finnish women with pregnancies continuing beyond first trimester, and may be applied to Caucasian women in populations with similar prevalence of FV Leiden and high standard prenatal care.
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Several orthopoxviruses (OPV) and Borna disease virus (BDV) are enveloped, zoonotic viruses with a wide geographical distribution. OPV antibodies cross-react, and former smallpox vaccination has therefore protected human populations from another OPV infection, rodent-borne cowpox virus (CPXV). Cowpox in humans and cats usually manifests as a mild, self-limiting dermatitis and constitutional symptoms, but it can be severe and even life-threatening in the immunocompromised. Classical Borna disease is a progressive meningoencephalomyelitis in horses and sheep known in central Europe for centuries. Nowadays the virus or its close relative infects humans and also several other species in central Europe and elsewhere, but the existence of human Borna disease with its suspected neuropsychiatric symptoms is controversial. The epidemiology of BDV is largely unknown, and the present situation is even more intriguing following the recent detection of several-million-year-old, endogenized BDV genes in primate and various other vertebrate genomes. The aims of this study were to elucidate the importance of CPXV and BDV in Finland and in possible host species, and particularly to 1) establish relevant methods for the detection of CPXV and other OPVs as well as BDV in Finland, 2) determine whether CPXV and BDV exist in Finland, 3) discover how common OPV immunity is in different age groups in Finland, 4) characterize possible disease cases and clarify their epidemiological context, 5) establish the hosts and possible reservoir species of these viruses and their geographical distribution in wild rodents, and 6) elucidate the infection kinetics of BDV in the bank vole. An indirect immunofluorescence assay and avidity measurement were established for the detection, timing and verification of OPV or BDV antibodies in thousands of blood samples from humans, horses, ruminants, lynxes, gallinaceous birds, dogs, cats and rodents. The mostly vaccine-derived OPV seroprevalence was found to decrease gradually according to the year of birth of the sampled human subjects from 100% to 10% in those born after 1977. On the other hand, OPV antibodies indicating natural contact with CPXV or other OPVs were commonly found in domestic and wild animals: the horse, cow, lynx, dog, cat and, with a prevalence occasionally even as high as 92%, in wild rodents, including some previously undetected species and new regions. Antibodies to BDV were detected in humans, horses, a dog, cats, and for the first time in wild rodents, such as bank voles (Myodes glareolus). Because of the controversy within the human Borna disease field, extra verification methods were established for BDV antibody findings: recombinant nucleocapsid and phosphoproteins were produced in Escherichia coli and in a baculovirus system, and peptide arrays were additionally applied. With these verification assays, Finnish human, equine, feline and rodent BDV infections were confirmed. Taken together, wide host spectra were evident for both OPV and BDV infections based on the antibody findings, and OPV infections were found to be geographically broadly distributed. PCR amplification methods were utilised for hundreds of blood and tissue samples. The methods included conventional, nested and real-time PCRs with or without the reverse transcription step and detecting four or two genes of OPVs and BDV, respectively. OPV DNA could be amplified from two human patients and three bank voles, whereas no BDV RNA was detected in naturally infected individuals. Based on the phylogenetic analyses, the Finnish OPV sequences were closely related although not identical to a Russian CPXV isolate, and clearly different from other CPXV strains. Moreover, the Finnish sequences only equalled each other, but the short amplicons obtained from German rodents were identical to monkeypox virus, in addition to German CPXV variants. This reflects the close relationship of all OPVs. In summary, RNA of the Finnish BDV variant could not be detected with the available PCR methods, but OPV DNA infrequently could. The OPV species infecting the patients of this study was proven to be CPXV, which is most probably also responsible for the rodent infections. Multiple cell lines and some newborn rodents were utilised in the isolation of CPXV and BDV from patient and wildlife samples. CPXV could be isolated from a child with severe, generalised cowpox. BDV isolation attempts from rodents were unsuccessful in this study. However, in parallel studies, a transient BDV infection of cells inoculated with equine brain material was detected, and BDV antigens discovered in archival animal brains using established immunohistology. Thus, based on several independent methods, both CPXV and BDV (or a closely related agent) were shown to be present in Finland. Bank voles could be productively infected with BDV. This experimental infection did not result in notable pathological findings or symptoms, despite the intense spread of the virus in the central and peripheral nervous system. Infected voles commonly excreted the virus in urine and faeces, which emphasises their possible role as a BDV reservoir. Moreover, BDV RNA was regularly reverse transcribed into DNA in bank voles, which was detected by amplifying DNA by PCR without reverse transcription, and verified with nuclease treatments. This finding indicates that BDV genes could be endogenized during an acute infection. Although further transmission studies are needed, this experimental infection demonstrated that the bank vole can function as a potential BDV reservoir. In summary, multiple methods were established and applied in large panels to detect two zoonoses novel to Finland: cowpox virus and Borna disease virus. Moreover, new information was obtained on their geographical distribution, host spectrum, epidemiology and infection kinetics.
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The performance of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) in simulating an extreme rainfall event is evaluated, and subsequently the physical mechanisms leading to its initiation and sustenance are explored. As a case study, the heavy precipitation event that led to 65 cm of rainfall accumulation in a span of around 6 h (1430 LT-2030 LT) over Santacruz (Mumbai, India), on 26 July, 2005, is selected. Three sets of numerical experiments have been conducted. The first set of experiments (EXP1) consisted of a four-member ensemble, and was carried out in an idealized mode with a model grid spacing of 1 km. In spite of the idealized framework, signatures of heavy rainfall were seen in two of the ensemble members. The second set (EXP2) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nested integration and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6 and 1 km. The model was able to simulate a realistic spatial structure with the 54, 18, and 6 km grids; however, with the 1 km grid, the simulations were dominated by the prescribed boundary conditions. The third and final set of experiments (EXP3) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nesting and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6, and 2 km. The Scaled Lagged Average Forecasting (SLAF) methodology was employed to construct the ensemble members. The model simulations in this case were closer to observations, as compared to EXP2. Specifically, among all experiments, the timing of maximum rainfall, the abrupt increase in rainfall intensities, which was a major feature of this event, and the rainfall intensities simulated in EXP3 (at 6 km resolution) were closest to observations. Analysis of the physical mechanisms causing the initiation and sustenance of the event reveals some interesting aspects. Deep convection was found to be initiated by mid-tropospheric convergence that extended to lower levels during the later stage. In addition, there was a high negative vertical gradient of equivalent potential temperature suggesting strong atmospheric instability prior to and during the occurrence of the event. Finally, the presence of a conducive vertical wind shear in the lower and mid-troposphere is thought to be one of the major factors influencing the longevity of the event.
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Community diversity and the population abundance of a particular group of species are controlled by immediate environment, inter-and intra-species interactions, landscape conditions, historical events and evolutionary processes. Nestedness is a measure of order in an ecological system, referring to the order in which the number of species is related to area or other factors. In this study we have studied the nestedness pattern in stream diatom assemblages in 24 stream sites of central Western Ghats, and report 98 taxa from the streams of central Western Ghats region. The communities show highly significant nested pattern. The Mantel test of matrix revealed a strong relationship between species assemblages and environmental conditions at the sites. A significant relationship between species assemblage and environmental condition was observed. Principal component analysis (PCA) indicated that environmental conditions differed markedly across the sampling sites, with the first three components explaining 78% of variance. Species composition of diatoms is significantly correlated with environmental distance across geographical extent. The current pattern suggests that micro-environment at regional levels influences the species composition of epilithic diatoms in streams. The nestedness shown by the diatom community was highly significant, even though it had a high proportion of idiosyncratic species, characterized with high numbers of cosmopolitan species, whereas the nested species were dominated by endemic species. PCA identifies ionic parameters and nutrients as the major features which determine the characteristics of the sampling sites. Hence the local water quality parameters are the major factors in deciding the diatom species assemblages.