Future Bloom and Blossom Frost Risk for Malus domestica Considering Climate Model and Impact Model Uncertainties

The future bloom and risk of blossom frosts for Malus domestica were projected using regional climate realizations and phenological (= impact) models. As climate impact projections are susceptible to uncertainties of climate and impact models and model concatenation, the significant horizon of the climate impact signal was analyzed by applying 7 impact models, including two new developments, on 13 climate realizations of the IPCC emission scenario A1B. Advancement of phenophases and a decrease in blossom frost risk for Lower Saxony (Germany) for early and late ripeners was determined by six out of seven phenological models. Single model/single grid point time series of bloom showed significant trends by 2021-2050 compared to 1971-2000, whereas the joint signal of all climate and impact models did not stabilize until 2043. Regarding blossom frost risk, joint projection variability exceeded the projected signal. Thus, blossom frost risk cannot be stated to be lower by the end of the 21st century despite a negative trend. As a consequence it is however unlikely to increase. Uncertainty of temperature, blooming date and blossom frost risk projection reached a minimum at 2078-2087. The projected phenophases advanced by 5.5 d K-1, showing partial compensation of delayed fulfillment of the winter chill requirement and faster completion of the following forcing phase in spring. Finally, phenological model performance was improved by considering the length of day.

ASSOCIATION OF SERUM VITAMIN D AND KEY CO-NUTRIENTS IN RELATION TO HYPERTENSION: A CROSS-SECTIONAL STUDY BASED ON NHANES DATA

Observational studies demonstrate strong associations between deficient serum vitamin D (25(OH)D) levels and cardiovascular disease. To further examine the association between vitamin D and hypertension (HTN), data from the 2003-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were analyzed to assess whether the association between vitamin D and HTN varies by sufficiency of key co-nutrients necessary for metabolic vitamin D reactions to occur. Logistic regression results demonstrate independent effect modification by calcium, magnesium, and vitamin A on the association between vitamin D and HTN. Among non-pregnant adults with adequate renal function, those with low levels of calcium, magnesium, and vitamin D levels had 1.75 times the odds of HTN compared to those with sufficient vitamin D levels (p = <0.0001). Additionally, participants with low levels of calcium, magnesium, vitamin A, and vitamin D had 5.43 times the odds of HTN compared to those with vitamin D sufficiency (p = 0.0103).

A coupled movement and bioenergetics model to explore the spawning migration of anchovy in the Bay of Biscay

Adult anchovies in the Bay of Biscay perform north to south migration from late winter to early summer for spawning. However, what triggers and drives the geographic shift of the population remains unclear and poorly understood. An individual-based fish model has been implemented to explore the potential mechanisms that control anchovy's movement routes toward its spawning habitats. To achieve this goal, two fish movement behaviors – gradient detection through restricted area search and kinesis – simulated fish response to its dynamic environment. A bioenergetics model was used to represent individual growth and reproduction along the fish trajectory. The environmental forcing (food, temperature) of the model was provided by a coupled physical–biogeochemical model. We followed a hypothesis-testing strategy to actualize a series of simulations using different cues and computational assumptions. The gradient detection behavior was found as the most suitable mechanism to recreate the observed shift of anchovy distribution under the combined effect of sea-surface temperature and zooplankton. In addition, our results suggested that southward movement occurred more actively from early April to middle May following favorably the spatio-temporal evolution of zooplankton and temperature. In terms of fish bioenergetics, individuals who ended up in the southern part of the bay presented better condition based on energy content, proposing the resulting energy gain as an ecological explanation for this migration. The kinesis approach resulted in a moderate performance, producing distribution pattern with the highest spread. Finally, model performance was not significantly affected by changes on the starting date, initial fish distribution and number of particles used in the simulations, whereas it was drastically influenced by the adopted cues.

A functional specification and validation model for networks on chip in the ACL2 logic

International audience

Vocabulary and language model adaptation using information retrieval

International audience

Phospholipases and the network of auxin signal transduction with ABP1 and TIR1 as two receptors: a comprehensive and provocative model

Three types of phospholipases, phospholipase D, secreted phospholipase A2, and patatin-related phospholipase A (pPLA) have functions in auxin signal transduction. Potential linkage to auxin receptors ABP1 or TIR1, their rapid activation or post-translational activation mechanisms, and downstream functions regulated by these phospholipases is reviewed and discussed. Only for pPLA all aspects are known at least to some detail. Evidence is gathered that all these signal reactions are located in the cytosol and seem to merge on regulation of PIN-catalyzed auxin efflux transport proteins. As a consequence, auxin concentration in the nucleus is also affected and this regulates the E3 activity of this auxin receptor. We showed that ABP1, PIN2, and pPLA, all outside the nucleus, have an impact on regulation of auxin-induced genes within 30 min. We propose that regulation of PIN protein activities and of auxin efflux transport are the means to coordinate ABP1 and TIR1 activity and that no physical contact between components of the ABP1-triggered cytosolic pathways and TIR1-triggered nuclear pathways of signaling is necessary to perform this.

Some features of the law and order model in Spain

This research is based on the hypothesis that law and order model is displacing the procedura justice system in Spain. After a thorough review of the international literature, one can observe that the traditional structure of the penal system does not seem to be capable of containing the new forms of crime. The new penal model assumes that public opinion is alarmed and unwilling to understand rational approaches to crime, so it will be likely to accept measures aimed at calming the fear of crime, through extensive control policies and penal tools to manage uncivil behavior. Objectives and methodology A measuring instrument has been developed to confirm this hypothesis, consisting of ten features that characterize the law and order model. This instrument has been used to identify examples of its ten features in the rules and practices developed at each phase of the Spanish criminal justice system. The analysis has focused specifically on public discourse about delinquency, criminal policy decisions, legislative processes, police routines, judicial dynamics, and prison system practices. Main results The investigation has shown that there are many processes and practices indicating that the law and order model is consolidating itself in the Spanish penal system. Nevertheless this process has a different intensity at each phase, being stronger at the legislative stage and softer in the penitentiary enforcement phase. One of the main conclusions is, therefore, that the designed instrument is ideal for measuring the degree of penetration of the model throughout the system. Some of the most striking results of the reasearch will be presented at the conference. Finally, proposals arise that could prevent the new model is fully seated in our criminal justice system, finding that the trend toward more severe penalties shown already unsustainable.

Nurses', midwives' and key stakeholders' experiences and perceptions on requirements to demonstrate the maintenance of professional competence.

Aim: To present the qualitative findings from a study on the development of scheme(s) to give evidence of maintenance of professional competence for nurses and midwives. Background: Key issues in maintenance of professional competence include notions of self- assessment, verification of engagement and practice hours, provision of an evidential record, the role of the employer and articulation of possible consequences for non-adherence with the requirements. Schemes to demonstrate the maintenance of professional competence have application to nurses, midwives and regulatory bodies and healthcare employers worldwide. Design: A mixed methods approach was used. This included an online survey of nurses and midwives and focus groups with nurses and midwives and other key stakeholders. The qualitative data are reported in this study. Methods: Focus groups were conducted among a purposive sample of nurses, midwives and key stakeholders from January–May 2015. A total of 13 focus groups with 91 participants contributed to the study. Findings: Four major themes were identified: Definitions and Characteristics of Competence; Continuing Professional Development and Demonstrating Competence; Assessment of Competence; The Nursing and Midwifery Board of Ireland and employers as regulators and enablers of maintaining professional competence. Conclusion: Competence incorporates knowledge, skills, attitudes, professionalism, application of evidence and translating learning into practice. It is specific to the nurse's/midwife's role, organizational needs, patient's needs and the individual nurse's/midwife's learning needs. Competencies develop over time and change as nurses and midwives work in different practice areas. Thus, role-specific competence is linked to recent engagement in practice.

Modeling Alzheimer disease with iPSCs and mouse model for the identification of risk factors, new targets, and potential therapeutical strategies

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the most common neurodegenerative disease in elderly. Donepezil is the first-line drug used for AD. In section one, the experimental activity was oriented to evaluate and characterize molecular and cellular mechanisms that contribute to neurodegeneration induced by the Aβ1-42 oligomers (Aβ1-42O) and potential neuroprotective effects of the hybrids feruloyl-donepezil compound called PQM130. The effects of PQM130 were compared to donepezil in a murine AD model, obtained by intracerebroventricular (i.c.v.) injection of Aβ1-42O. The intraperitoneal administration of PQM130 (0.5-1 mg/kg) after i.c.v. Aβ1-42O injection improved learning and memory, protecting mice against spatial cognition decline. Moreover, it reduced oxidative stress, neuroinflammation and neuronal apoptosis, induced cell survival and protein synthesis in mice hippocampus. PQM130 modulated different pathways than donepezil, and it is more effective in counteracting Aβ1-42O damage. The section two of the experimental activity was focused on studying a loss of function variants of ABCA7. GWA studies identified mutations in the ABCA7 gene as a risk factor for AD. The mechanism through which ABCA7 contributes to AD is not clear. ABCA7 regulates lipid metabolism and critically controls phagocytic function. To investigate ABCA7 functions, CRISPR/Cas9 technology was used to engineer human iPSCs and to carry the genetic variant Y622*, which results in a premature stop codon, causing ABCA7 loss-of-function. From iPSCs, astrocytes were generated. This study revealed the effects of ABCA7 loss in astrocytes. ABCA7 Y622* mutation induced dysfunctional endocytic trafficking, impairing Aβ clearance, lipid dysregulation and cell homeostasis disruption, alterations that could contribute to AD. Though further studies are needed to confirm the PQM130 neuroprotective role and ABCA7 function in AD, the provided results showed a better understanding of AD pathophysiology, a new therapeutic approach to treat AD, and illustrated an innovative methodology for studying the disease.

Waste prevention: policy instruments and business model innovation

Waste prevention (WP) is a strategy which helps societies and individuals to strive for sufficiency in resource consumption within planetary boundaries alongside sustainable and equitable well-being and to decouple the concepts of well-being and life satisfaction from materialism. Within this dissertation, some instruments to promote WP are analysed, by adopting two perspectives: firstly, the one of policymakers, at different governance levels, and secondly, the one of business in the electrical and electronic equipment (EEE) sector. At a national level, the role of WP programmes and market-based instruments (extended producer responsibility, pay-as-you-throw schemes, deposit-refund systems, environmental taxes) in boosting prevention of municipal solid waste is investigated. Then, focusing on the Emilia-Romagna Region (Italy), the performances of the waste management system are assessed over a long period, including some years before and after an institutional reform of the waste management governance regime. The impact of a centralisation (at a regional level) of both planning and economic regulation of the waste services on waste generation and WP is analysed. Finally, to support the regional decision-makers in the prioritisation of publicly funded projects for WP, a framework for the sustainability assessment, the evaluation of success, and the prioritisation of WP measures was applied to some projects implemented by Municipalities in the Region. Trying to close the research gap between engineering and business, WP strategies are discussed as drivers for business model (BM) innovation in EEE sector. Firstly, an innovative approach to a digital tracking solution for professional EEE management is analysed. New BMs which facilitate repair, reuse, remanufacturing, and recycling are created and discussed. Secondly, the impact of BMs based on servitisation and on producer ownership on the extension of equipment lifetime is analysed, by performing a review of real cases of organizations in the EEE sector applying result- and use-oriented BMs.

Selecting, testing and modifying a model for identifying potential key customers

Tämä työ tehtiin globaaliin elektroniikka-alan yritykseen. Diplomityö liittyy haasteeseen, jonka lisääntynyt globalisaatio ja kiristyvä kilpailu ovat luoneet: case yrityksen on selvitettävä kuinka se voi saavuttaa kasvutavoitteet myös tulevaisuudessa hankkimalla uusia asiakkaita ja olemalla yhä enenevissä määrin maailmanlaajuisesti läsnä. Tutkimuksen tavoite oli löytää sopiva malli potentiaalisten avainasiakkaiden identifiointiin ja valintaan, sekä testata ja modifioida valittua mallia case yrityksen tarpeiden mukaisesti. Erityisesti raakadatan kerääminen, asiakkaiden houkuttelevuuskriteerit ja kohdemarkkinarako olivat asioita, jotka tarvitsivat tutkimuksessa huomiota. Kirjallisuuskatsauksessa keskityttiin yritysmarkkinoihin, eri asiakassuhteenhallinnan lähestymistapoihin ja avainasiakkaiden määrittämiseen. CRM:n, KAM:n ja Customer Insight-ajattelun perusteet esiteltiin yhdessä eri avainasiakkaiden identifiointimallien kanssa. Valittua Chevertonin mallia testattiin ja muokattiin työn empiirisessä osassa. Tutkimuksen empiirinen kontribuutio on modifioitu malli potentiaalisten avainasiakkaiden identifiointiin. Se auttaa päätöksentekijöitä etenemään systemaattisesti ja organisoidusti askel askeleelta kohti potentiaalisten asiakkaiden listaa tietyltä markkina-alueelta. Työ tarjoaa työkalun tähän prosessiin sekä luo pohjaa tulevaisuuden tutkimukselle ja toimenpiteille.

An information model for lean, agile, resilient and green supply chain management

Dissertação para a obtenção de Grau de Mestre em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial

A limited area model intercomparison on the "Montserrat-2000" flash-flood event using statistical and deterministic methods

In the scope of the European project Hydroptimet, INTERREG IIIB-MEDOCC programme, limited area model (LAM) intercomparison of intense events that produced many damages to people and territory is performed. As the comparison is limited to single case studies, the work is not meant to provide a measure of the different models' skill, but to identify the key model factors useful to give a good forecast on such a kind of meteorological phenomena. This work focuses on the Spanish flash-flood event, also known as "Montserrat-2000" event. The study is performed using forecast data from seven operational LAMs, placed at partners' disposal via the Hydroptimet ftp site, and observed data from Catalonia rain gauge network. To improve the event analysis, satellite rainfall estimates have been also considered. For statistical evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs), several non-parametric skill scores based on contingency tables have been used. Furthermore, for each model run it has been possible to identify Catalonia regions affected by misses and false alarms using contingency table elements. Moreover, the standard "eyeball" analysis of forecast and observed precipitation fields has been supported by the use of a state-of-the-art diagnostic method, the contiguous rain area (CRA) analysis. This method allows to quantify the spatial shift forecast error and to identify the error sources that affected each model forecasts. High-resolution modelling and domain size seem to have a key role for providing a skillful forecast. Further work is needed to support this statement, including verification using a wider observational data set.

Impacts of forestry on nitrogen in upland and lowland catchments: a comparison of the River Severn at Plynlimon in mid-Wales and the Bedford Ouse in south-east England using the INCA Model

The impacts of afforestation at Plynlimon in the Severn catchment, mid-Wales. and in the Bedford Ouse catchment in south-east England are evaluated using the INCA model to simulate Nitrogen (N) fluxes and concentrations. The INCA model represents the key hydrological and N processes operating in catchments and simulates the daily dynamic behaviour as well as the annual fluxes. INCA has been applied to five years of data front the Hafren and Hore headwater sub-catchments (6.8 km(2) area in total) of the River Severn at Plytilimon and the model was calibrated and validated against field data. Simulation of afforestation is achieved by altering the uptake rate parameters in the model. INCA simulates the daily N behaviour in the catchments with good accuracy as well as reconstructing the annual budgets for N release following clearfelling a four-fold increase in N fluxes was followed by a slow recovery after re-afforestation. For comparison, INCA has been applied to the large (8380 km(2)) Bedford Ouse catchment to investigate the impact of replacing 20% arable land with forestry. The reduction in fertiliser inputs from arable farming and the N uptake by the forest are predicted to reduce the N flux reaching the main river system, leading to a 33% reduction in N-Nitrate concentrations in the river water.