Paradigms in Statistical Inference for Finite Populations; Up to the 1950s

Modern sample surveys started to spread after statistician at the U.S. Bureau of the Census in the 1940s had developed a sampling design for the Current Population Survey (CPS). A significant factor was also that digital computers became available for statisticians. In the beginning of 1950s, the theory was documented in textbooks on survey sampling. This thesis is about the development of the statistical inference for sample surveys. For the first time the idea of statistical inference was enunciated by a French scientist, P. S. Laplace. In 1781, he published a plan for a partial investigation in which he determined the sample size needed to reach the desired accuracy in estimation. The plan was based on Laplace s Principle of Inverse Probability and on his derivation of the Central Limit Theorem. They were published in a memoir in 1774 which is one of the origins of statistical inference. Laplace s inference model was based on Bernoulli trials and binominal probabilities. He assumed that populations were changing constantly. It was depicted by assuming a priori distributions for parameters. Laplace s inference model dominated statistical thinking for a century. Sample selection in Laplace s investigations was purposive. In 1894 in the International Statistical Institute meeting, Norwegian Anders Kiaer presented the idea of the Representative Method to draw samples. Its idea was that the sample would be a miniature of the population. It is still prevailing. The virtues of random sampling were known but practical problems of sample selection and data collection hindered its use. Arhtur Bowley realized the potentials of Kiaer s method and in the beginning of the 20th century carried out several surveys in the UK. He also developed the theory of statistical inference for finite populations. It was based on Laplace s inference model. R. A. Fisher contributions in the 1920 s constitute a watershed in the statistical science He revolutionized the theory of statistics. In addition, he introduced a new statistical inference model which is still the prevailing paradigm. The essential idea is to draw repeatedly samples from the same population and the assumption that population parameters are constants. Fisher s theory did not include a priori probabilities. Jerzy Neyman adopted Fisher s inference model and applied it to finite populations with the difference that Neyman s inference model does not include any assumptions of the distributions of the study variables. Applying Fisher s fiducial argument he developed the theory for confidence intervals. Neyman s last contribution to survey sampling presented a theory for double sampling. This gave the central idea for statisticians at the U.S. Census Bureau to develop the complex survey design for the CPS. Important criterion was to have a method in which the costs of data collection were acceptable, and which provided approximately equal interviewer workloads, besides sufficient accuracy in estimation.

Discriminative learning of Bayesian networks via factorized conditional log-likelihood

We propose an efficient and parameter-free scoring criterion, the factorized conditional log-likelihood (ˆfCLL), for learning Bayesian network classifiers. The proposed score is an approximation of the conditional log-likelihood criterion. The approximation is devised in order to guarantee decomposability over the network structure, as well as efficient estimation of the optimal parameters, achieving the same time and space complexity as the traditional log-likelihood scoring criterion. The resulting criterion has an information-theoretic interpretation based on interaction information, which exhibits its discriminative nature. To evaluate the performance of the proposed criterion, we present an empirical comparison with state-of-the-art classifiers. Results on a large suite of benchmark data sets from the UCI repository show that ˆfCLL-trained classifiers achieve at least as good accuracy as the best compared classifiers, using significantly less computational resources.

Partial instantiation methods for inference in first-order logic

Satisfiability algorithms for propositional logic have improved enormously in recently years. This improvement increases the attractiveness of satisfiability methods for first-order logic that reduce the problem to a series of ground-level satisfiability problems. R. Jeroslow introduced a partial instantiation method of this kind that differs radically from the standard resolution-based methods. This paper lays the theoretical groundwork for an extension of his method that is general enough and efficient enough for general logic programming with indefinite clauses. In particular we improve Jeroslow's approach by (1) extending it to logic with functions, (2) accelerating it through the use of satisfiers, as introduced by Gallo and Rago, and (3) simplifying it to obtain further speedup. We provide a similar development for a "dual" partial instantiation approach defined by Hooker and suggest a primal-dual strategy. We prove correctness of the primal and dual algorithms for full first-order logic with functions, as well as termination on unsatisfiable formulas. We also report some preliminary computational results.

PocketAnnotate: towards site-based function annotation

A computational pipeline PocketAnnotate for functional annotation of proteins at the level of binding sites has been proposed in this study. The pipeline integrates three in-house algorithms for site-based function annotation: PocketDepth, for prediction of binding sites in protein structures; PocketMatch, for rapid comparison of binding sites and PocketAlign, to obtain detailed alignment between pair of binding sites. A novel scheme has been developed to rapidly generate a database of non-redundant binding sites. For a given input protein structure, putative ligand-binding sites are identified, matched in real time against the database and the query substructure aligned with the promising hits, to obtain a set of possible ligands that the given protein could bind to. The input can be either whole protein structures or merely the substructures corresponding to possible binding sites. Structure-based function annotation at the level of binding sites thus achieved could prove very useful for cases where no obvious functional inference can be obtained based purely on sequence or fold-level analyses. An attempt has also been made to analyse proteins of no known function from Protein Data Bank. PocketAnnotate would be a valuable tool for the scientific community and contribute towards structure-based functional inference. The web server can be freely accessed at http://proline.biochem.iisc.ernet.in/pocketannotate/.

Fast Likelihood Computation in Speech Recognition using Matrices

Acoustic modeling using mixtures of multivariate Gaussians is the prevalent approach for many speech processing problems. Computing likelihoods against a large set of Gaussians is required as a part of many speech processing systems and it is the computationally dominant phase for Large Vocabulary Continuous Speech Recognition (LVCSR) systems. We express the likelihood computation as a multiplication of matrices representing augmented feature vectors and Gaussian parameters. The computational gain of this approach over traditional methods is by exploiting the structure of these matrices and efficient implementation of their multiplication. In particular, we explore direct low-rank approximation of the Gaussian parameter matrix and indirect derivation of low-rank factors of the Gaussian parameter matrix by optimum approximation of the likelihood matrix. We show that both the methods lead to similar speedups but the latter leads to far lesser impact on the recognition accuracy. Experiments on 1,138 work vocabulary RM1 task and 6,224 word vocabulary TIMIT task using Sphinx 3.7 system show that, for a typical case the matrix multiplication based approach leads to overall speedup of 46 % on RM1 task and 115 % for TIMIT task. Our low-rank approximation methods provide a way for trading off recognition accuracy for a further increase in computational performance extending overall speedups up to 61 % for RM1 and 119 % for TIMIT for an increase of word error rate (WER) from 3.2 to 3.5 % for RM1 and for no increase in WER for TIMIT. We also express pairwise Euclidean distance computation phase in Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) in terms of matrix multiplication leading to saving of approximately of computational operations. In our experiments using efficient implementation of matrix multiplication, this leads to a speedup of 5.6 in computing the pairwise Euclidean distances and overall speedup up to 3.25 for DTW.

Fragment-based real-time object tracking: a sparse representation approach

Real-time object tracking is a critical task in many computer vision applications. Achieving rapid and robust tracking while handling changes in object pose and size, varying illumination and partial occlusion, is a challenging task given the limited amount of computational resources. In this paper we propose a real-time object tracker in l(1) framework addressing these issues. In the proposed approach, dictionaries containing templates of overlapping object fragments are created. The candidate fragments are sparsely represented in the dictionary fragment space by solving the l(1) regularized least squares problem. The non zero coefficients indicate the relative motion between the target and candidate fragments along with a fidelity measure. The final object motion is obtained by fusing the reliable motion information. The dictionary is updated based on the object likelihood map. The proposed tracking algorithm is tested on various challenging videos and found to outperform earlier approach.

Validation based sparse Gaussian processes for ordinal regression

This paper proposes a sparse modeling approach to solve ordinal regression problems using Gaussian processes (GP). Designing a sparse GP model is important from training time and inference time viewpoints. We first propose a variant of the Gaussian process ordinal regression (GPOR) approach, leave-one-out GPOR (LOO-GPOR). It performs model selection using the leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) technique. We then provide an approach to design a sparse model for GPOR. The sparse GPOR model reduces computational time and storage requirements. Further, it provides faster inference. We compare the proposed approaches with the state-of-the-art GPOR approach on some benchmark data sets. Experimental results show that the proposed approaches are competitive.

Cooperative Particle Swarm Optimization Based Receiver for Large-Dimension MIMO-ZPSC Systems

In this paper, we propose a cooperative particle swarm optimization (CPSO) based channel estimation/equalization scheme for multiple-input multiple-output zero-padded single-carrier (MIMO-ZPSC) systems with large dimensions in frequency selective channels. We estimate the channel state information at the receiver in time domain using a PSO based algorithm during training phase. Using the estimated channel, we perform information symbol detection in the frequency domain using FFT based processing. For this detection, we use a low complexity OLA (OverLap Add) likelihood ascent search equalizer which uses minimum mean square (MMSE) equalizer solution as the initial solution. Multiple iterations between channel estimation and data detection are carried out which significantly improves the mean square error and bit error rate performance of the receiver.

Approximate Nearest Neighbour Field based Optic Disk Detection

Approximate Nearest Neighbour Field maps are commonly used by computer vision and graphics community to deal with problems like image completion, retargetting, denoising, etc. In this paper, we extend the scope of usage of ANNF maps to medical image analysis, more specifically to optic disk detection in retinal images. In the analysis of retinal images, optic disk detection plays an important role since it simplifies the segmentation of optic disk and other retinal structures. The proposed approach uses FeatureMatch, an ANNF algorithm, to find the correspondence between a chosen optic disk reference image and any given query image. This correspondence provides a distribution of patches in the query image that are closest to patches in the reference image. The likelihood map obtained from the distribution of patches in query image is used for optic disk detection. The proposed approach is evaluated on five publicly available DIARETDB0, DIARETDB1, DRIVE, STARE and MESSIDOR databases, with total of 1540 images. We show, experimentally, that our proposed approach achieves an average detection accuracy of 99% and an average computation time of 0.2 s per image. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Phase Transition for the Uniform Distribution in the Pattern Maximum Likelihood Problem

In this paper, we consider the setting of the pattern maximum likelihood (PML) problem studied by Orlitsky et al. We present a well-motivated heuristic algorithm for deciding the question of when the PML distribution of a given pattern is uniform. The algorithm is based on the concept of a ``uniform threshold''. This is a threshold at which the uniform distribution exhibits an interesting phase transition in the PML problem, going from being a local maximum to being a local minimum.

De novo inference of protein function from coarse-grained dynamics

Inference of molecular function of proteins is the fundamental task in the quest for understanding cellular processes. The task is getting increasingly difficult with thousands of new proteins discovered each day. The difficulty arises primarily due to lack of high-throughput experimental technique for assessing protein molecular function, a lacunae that computational approaches are trying hard to fill. The latter too faces a major bottleneck in absence of clear evidence based on evolutionary information. Here we propose a de novo approach to annotate protein molecular function through structural dynamics match for a pair of segments from two dissimilar proteins, which may share even <10% sequence identity. To screen these matches, corresponding 1 mu s coarse-grained (CG) molecular dynamics trajectories were used to compute normalized root-mean-square-fluctuation graphs and select mobile segments, which were, thereafter, matched for all pairs using unweighted three-dimensional autocorrelation vectors. Our in-house custom-built forcefield (FF), extensively validated against dynamics information obtained from experimental nuclear magnetic resonance data, was specifically used to generate the CG dynamics trajectories. The test for correspondence of dynamics-signature of protein segments and function revealed 87% true positive rate and 93.5% true negative rate, on a dataset of 60 experimentally validated proteins, including moonlighting proteins and those with novel functional motifs. A random test against 315 unique fold/function proteins for a negative test gave >99% true recall. A blind prediction on a novel protein appears consistent with additional evidences retrieved therein. This is the first proof-of-principle of generalized use of structural dynamics for inferring protein molecular function leveraging our custom-made CG FF, useful to all. (C) 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Maximum likelihood analysis of multi-stress accelerated life test data of series systems with competing log-normal causes of failure

This article presents frequentist inference of accelerated life test data of series systems with independent log-normal component lifetimes. The means of the component log-lifetimes are assumed to depend on the stress variables through a linear stress translation function that can accommodate the standard stress translation functions in the literature. An expectation-maximization algorithm is developed to obtain the maximum likelihood estimates of model parameters. The maximum likelihood estimates are then further refined by bootstrap, which is also used to infer about the component and system reliability metrics at usage stresses. The developed methodology is illustrated by analyzing a real as well as a simulated dataset. A simulation study is also carried out to judge the effectiveness of the bootstrap. It is found that in this model, application of bootstrap results in significant improvement over the simple maximum likelihood estimates.

An Optical How Feature and McFIS Based Approach for 3-Dimensional Human Action Recognition

We propose to develop a 3-D optical flow features based human action recognition system. Optical flow based features are employed here since they can capture the apparent movement in object, by design. Moreover, they can represent information hierarchically from local pixel level to global object level. In this work, 3-D optical flow based features a re extracted by combining the 2-1) optical flow based features with the depth flow features obtained from depth camera. In order to develop an action recognition system, we employ a Meta-Cognitive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (McFIS). The m of McFIS is to find the decision boundary separating different classes based on their respective optical flow based features. McFIS consists of a neuro-fuzzy inference system (cognitive component) and a self-regulatory learning mechanism (meta-cognitive component). During the supervised learning, self-regulatory learning mechanism monitors the knowledge of the current sample with respect to the existing knowledge in the network and controls the learning by deciding on sample deletion, sample learning or sample reserve strategies. The performance of the proposed action recognition system was evaluated on a proprietary data set consisting of eight subjects. The performance evaluation with standard support vector machine classifier and extreme learning machine indicates improved performance of McFIS is recognizing actions based of 3-D optical flow based features.

Database Independent Human Emotion Recognition with Meta-Cognitive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System

Facial emotions are the most expressive way to display emotions. Many algorithms have been proposed which employ a particular set of people (usually a database) to both train and test their model. This paper focuses on the challenging task of database independent emotion recognition, which is a generalized case of subject-independent emotion recognition. The emotion recognition system employed in this work is a Meta-Cognitive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (McFIS). McFIS has two components, a neuro-fuzzy inference system, which is the cognitive component and a self-regulatory learning mechanism, which is the meta-cognitive component. The meta-cognitive component, monitors the knowledge in the neuro-fuzzy inference system and decides on what-to-learn, when-to-learn and how-to-learn the training samples, efficiently. For each sample, the McFIS decides whether to delete the sample without being learnt, use it to add/prune or update the network parameter or reserve it for future use. This helps the network avoid over-training and as a result improve its generalization performance over untrained databases. In this study, we extract pixel based emotion features from well-known (Japanese Female Facial Expression) JAFFE and (Taiwanese Female Expression Image) TFEID database. Two sets of experiment are conducted. First, we study the individual performance of both databases on McFIS based on 5-fold cross validation study. Next, in order to study the generalization performance, McFIS trained on JAFFE database is tested on TFEID and vice-versa. The performance The performance comparison in both experiments against SVNI classifier gives promising results.

Minimization Problems Based on Relative alpha-Entropy I: Forward Projection

Minimization problems with respect to a one-parameter family of generalized relative entropies are studied. These relative entropies, which we term relative alpha-entropies (denoted I-alpha), arise as redundancies under mismatched compression when cumulants of compressed lengths are considered instead of expected compressed lengths. These parametric relative entropies are a generalization of the usual relative entropy (Kullback-Leibler divergence). Just like relative entropy, these relative alpha-entropies behave like squared Euclidean distance and satisfy the Pythagorean property. Minimizers of these relative alpha-entropies on closed and convex sets are shown to exist. Such minimizations generalize the maximum Renyi or Tsallis entropy principle. The minimizing probability distribution (termed forward I-alpha-projection) for a linear family is shown to obey a power-law. Other results in connection with statistical inference, namely subspace transitivity and iterated projections, are also established. In a companion paper, a related minimization problem of interest in robust statistics that leads to a reverse I-alpha-projection is studied.