A decision support system to facilitate management of patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding

Objective: To develop a model to predict the bleeding source and identify the cohort amongst patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) who require urgent intervention, including endoscopy. Patients with acute GIB, an unpredictable event, are most commonly evaluated and managed by non-gastroenterologists. Rapid and consistently reliable risk stratification of patients with acute GIB for urgent endoscopy may potentially improve outcomes amongst such patients by targeting scarce health-care resources to those who need it the most. Design and methods: Using ICD-9 codes for acute GIB, 189 patients with acute GIB and all. available data variables required to develop and test models were identified from a hospital medical records database. Data on 122 patients was utilized for development of the model and on 67 patients utilized to perform comparative analysis of the models. Clinical data such as presenting signs and symptoms, demographic data, presence of co-morbidities, laboratory data and corresponding endoscopic diagnosis and outcomes were collected. Clinical data and endoscopic diagnosis collected for each patient was utilized to retrospectively ascertain optimal management for each patient. Clinical presentations and corresponding treatment was utilized as training examples. Eight mathematical models including artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), k-nearest neighbor, linear discriminant analysis (LDA), shrunken centroid (SC), random forest (RF), logistic regression, and boosting were trained and tested. The performance of these models was compared using standard statistical analysis and ROC curves. Results: Overall the random forest model best predicted the source, need for resuscitation, and disposition with accuracies of approximately 80% or higher (accuracy for endoscopy was greater than 75%). The area under ROC curve for RF was greater than 0.85, indicating excellent performance by the random forest model Conclusion: While most mathematical models are effective as a decision support system for evaluation and management of patients with acute GIB, in our testing, the RF model consistently demonstrated the best performance. Amongst patients presenting with acute GIB, mathematical models may facilitate the identification of the source of GIB, need for intervention and allow optimization of care and healthcare resource allocation; these however require further validation. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Drug-resistant tuberculosis in six hospitals in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

SETTING: Tuberculosis (TB) drug resistance survey in six hospitals in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. OBJECTIVE: To estimate resistance to at least one drug (DR) and multidrug resistance (MDR) and identify associated factors. DESIGN: One-year cross-sectional survey. Hospitals were included as a convenience sample. RESULTS: Of 595 patients investigated, 156 (26.2%) had previously undergone anti-tuberculosis treatment, 433 (72.8%) were not previously treated and information on the remaining 6 was not available. Overall, DR and MDR rates were high, at respectively 102 (17.1%, 95%CI 14.3-20.5) and 44 (7.4%, 95%CI 5.5-9.9) cases. Among individuals not previously treated, 17 had MDR (3.9%, 95%CI 2.4-6.3) and diagnosis in a TB reference hospital was independently associated with MDR (prevalence ratio [PR] 3.3, 95%CI 1.2-8.7) after multivariate analysis. Among previously treated individuals, 27 had MDR (17.3%, 95%CI 11.7-24.2). MDR-TB was independently associated with diagnosis in a TB reference hospital (PR 3.6, 95%CI 1.5-8.7), male sex (PR 2.3,95%CI 1.2-4.4) and dyspnoea (PR 0.3, 95%CI 0.1-0.7). CONCLUSION: We found high levels of DR- and MDR-TB. Our study design did not permit us to determine the contribution of community versus nosocomial transmission. Further studies are needed to establish this. Nevertheless, hospitals should be recognised as a potential source of transmission of resistant TB strains and urgent measures to avoid nosocomial TB transmission should be taken.

Mutations in exon 3 of the beta-catenin gene are rare in melanoma cell lines

Mutations in exon 3 of the CTNNB1 gene encoding beta-catenin have been reported in colorectal cancer cell lines and tumours. Although one study reported mutations or deletions affecting beta-catenin in 20% of melanoma cell lines, subsequent reports detected a much lower frequency of aberrations in uncultured melanomas. To determine whether this difference in mutation frequency reflected an in vitro culturing artefact, exon 3 of CTNNB1 was screened in a panel of 62 melanoma cell lines. In addition, reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) was performed to detect intragenic deletions affecting exon 3. One out of 62 (1.6%) cell lines was found to carry a mutation, indicating that aberration of the Wnt-l/wingless pathway through activation of beta-catenin is a rare event, even in melanoma cell lines. (C) 2002 Lippincott Williams Wilkins.

Estimation of body fatness from body mass index and bioelectrical impedance: comparison of New Zealand European, Maori and Pacific Island children

Objective: To compare percentage body fat (%BF) for a given body mass index (BMI) among New Zealand European, Maori and Pacific Island children. To develop prediction equations based on bioimpedance measurements for the estimation of fat-free mass (FFM) appropriate to children in these three ethnic groups. Design: Cross-sectional study. Purposive sampling of schoolchildren aimed at recruiting three children of each sex and ethnicity for each year of age. Double cross-validation of FFM prediction equations developed by multiple regression. Setting: Local schools in Auckland. Subjects: Healthy European, Maori and Pacific Island children (n = 172, 83 M, 89 F, mean age 9.4 +/- 2.8(s. d.), range 5 - 14 y). Measurements: Height, weight, age, sex and ethnicity were recorded. FFM was derived from measurements of total body water by deuterium dilution and resistance and reactance were measured by bioimpedance analysis. Results: For fixed BMI, the Maori and Pacific Island girls averaged 3.7% lower % BF than European girls. For boys a similar relation was not found since BMI did not significantly influence % BF of European boys ( P = 0.18). Based on bioimpedance measurements a single prediction equation was developed for all children: FFM (kg) = 0.622 height (cm)(2)/ resistance +0.234 weight (kg)+1.166, R-2 = 0.96, s. e. e. = 2.44 kg. Ethnicity, age and sex were not significant predictors. Conclusions: A robust equation for estimation of FFM in New Zealand European, Maori and Pacific Island children in the 5 - 14 y age range that is more suitable than BMI for the determination of body fatness in field studies has been developed. Sponsorship: Maurice and Phyllis Paykel Trust, Auckland University of Technology Contestable Grants Fund and the Ministry of Health.

Reforma administrativa e marco legal das organiza????es sociais no Brasil: as d??vidas dos juristas sobre o modelo das organiza????es sociais

O modelo brasileiro das organiza????es sociais representa uma das respostas poss??veis ?? crise do aparelho do Estado no ??mbito da presta????o dos servi??os sociais. Essas entidades s??o percebidas como uma forma de parceria do Estado com as institui????es privadas de fins p??blicos (perspectiva ex parte principe) ou, sob outro ??ngulo, uma forma de participa????o popular na gest??o administrativa (perspectiva ex parte populi). No texto s??o tematizadas as diferen??as e semelhan??as entre o marco legal das organiza????es sociais e das entidades de utilidade p??blica no Brasil, as notas distintivas entre a disciplina dos servi??os privados de interesse p??blico e dos servi??os p??blicos, bem como o que distingue juridicamente o modelo das organiza????es sociais de processos de privatiza????o e terceiriza????o. Em todos esses temas os juristas aparecem como protagonistas na determina????o dos limites do modelo das organiza????es sociais, evidenciando que processos de reforma normativa exigem, para serem eficazes, uma concomitante reforma na mentalidade dos agentes p??blicos.

Geostatistical Mapping of Outfall Plume Dispersion Data gathered with an autonomous underwater vehicle

The main purpose of this study was to examine the applicability of geostatistical modeling to obtain valuable information for assessing the environmental impact of sewage outfall discharges. The data set used was obtained in a monitoring campaign to S. Jacinto outfall, located off the Portuguese west coast near Aveiro region, using an AUV. The Matheron’s classical estimator was used the compute the experimental semivariogram which was fitted to three theoretical models: spherical, exponential and gaussian. The cross-validation procedure suggested the best semivariogram model and ordinary kriging was used to obtain the predictions of salinity at unknown locations. The generated map shows clearly the plume dispersion in the studied area, indicating that the effluent does not reach the near by beaches. Our study suggests that an optimal design for the AUV sampling trajectory from a geostatistical prediction point of view, can help to compute more precise predictions and hence to quantify more accurately dilution. Moreover, since accurate measurements of plume’s dilution are rare, these studies might be very helpful in the future for validation of dispersion models.

Component-based software engineering: a quantitative approach

Dissertação apresentada para a obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Informática pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

A hybrid genetic algorithm for the multi-mode resource-constrained project scheduling

A construction project is a group of discernible tasks or activities that are conduct-ed in a coordinated effort to accomplish one or more objectives. Construction projects re-quire varying levels of cost, time and other resources. To plan and schedule a construction project, activities must be defined sufficiently. The level of detail determines the number of activities contained within the project plan and schedule. So, finding feasible schedules which efficiently use scarce resources is a challenging task within project management. In this context, the well-known Resource Constrained Project Scheduling Problem (RCPSP) has been studied during the last decades. In the RCPSP the activities of a project have to be scheduled such that the makespan of the project is minimized. So, the technological precedence constraints have to be observed as well as limitations of the renewable resources required to accomplish the activities. Once started, an activity may not be interrupted. This problem has been extended to a more realistic model, the multi-mode resource con-strained project scheduling problem (MRCPSP), where each activity can be performed in one out of several modes. Each mode of an activity represents an alternative way of combining different levels of resource requirements with a related duration. Each renewable resource has a limited availability for the entire project such as manpower and machines. This paper presents a hybrid genetic algorithm for the multi-mode resource-constrained pro-ject scheduling problem, in which multiple execution modes are available for each of the ac-tivities of the project. The objective function is the minimization of the construction project completion time. To solve the problem, is applied a two-level genetic algorithm, which makes use of two separate levels and extend the parameterized schedule generation scheme. It is evaluated the quality of the schedules and presents detailed comparative computational re-sults for the MRCPSP, which reveal that this approach is a competitive algorithm.

Uma metaheurística para a programação de projectos com multi-modos e recursos limitados

Este artigo apresenta uma nova abordagem (MM-GAV-FBI), aplicável ao problema da programação de projectos com restrições de recursos e vários modos de execução por actividade, problema conhecido na literatura anglo-saxónica por MRCPSP. Cada projecto tem um conjunto de actividades com precedências tecnológicas definidas e um conjunto de recursos limitados, sendo que cada actividade pode ter mais do que um modo de realização. A programação dos projectos é realizada com recurso a um esquema de geração de planos (do inglês Schedule Generation Scheme - SGS) integrado com uma metaheurística. A metaheurística é baseada no paradigma dos algoritmos genéticos. As prioridades das actividades são obtidas a partir de um algoritmo genético. A representação cromossómica utilizada baseia-se em chaves aleatórias. O SGS gera planos não-atrasados. Após a obtenção de uma solução é aplicada uma melhoria local. O objectivo da abordagem é encontrar o melhor plano (planning), ou seja, o plano que tenha a menor duração temporal possível, satisfazendo as precedências das actividades e as restrições de recursos. A abordagem proposta é testada num conjunto de problemas retirados da literatura da especialidade e os resultados computacionais são comparados com outras abordagens. Os resultados computacionais validam o bom desempenho da abordagem, não apenas em termos de qualidade da solução, mas também em termos de tempo útil.

Treatment of patients with Schistosomiasis mansoni: a double blind clinical trial comparing praziquantel with oxamniquine

A double-blind clinical trial involving 120 patients with chronic schistosomiasis was carried out to compare the tolerability and efficacy of praziquantel and oxamniquine. The patients were randomly allocated into two groups. One was treated with praziquantel, 55 mg/kg of body weight CBWT), and the other one with oxamniquine, 15mg/kg bwt, administered in a single oral dose. The diagnosis and the parasitological follow-up was based on stool examinations by quantitative Kato-Katz method and on rectal biopsies. Side-effects — mainly dizziness, sleepness, abdominal distress, headache, nausea and diarrhea — were observed in 87% of the cases. Their incidence, intensity and duration were similar for both drugs but abdominal pain was significantly more frequent after praziquantel intake and severe dizziness was more commonly reported after oxamniquine. A significant increase of alanine-aminotransferase and y-glutamyltransferase was found with the latter drug and of total bilirubin with the former one. A total of 48 patients treated with praziquantel and 46 with oxamniquine completed with negative findings the required three post-treatment parasitological controls — three slides of each stool sample on the first, third and sixth month. The achieved cure rates were 79.2% and 84.8%, respectively, a difference without statistical significance. The non-cured cases showed a mean reduction in the number of eggs per gram of feces of 93.5% after praziquantel and of 84.1% after oxamniquine. This diference also was not significant. Five patients retreated with praziquantel were cured but only one out of three treated a second time with oxamniquine. These findings show that both drugs — despite their different chemical structures, pharmacological properties and mechanisms-of-action — induce similar side-effects as well as a comparable therapeutical efficacy, in agreement with the results reported from analogous investigations.

Hepatitis G virus / GB virus C in Brazil. Preliminary report

Hepatitis G virus/ GB virus C is a novel flavivirus recently detected in hepatitis non A-E cases. In this study, the presence of this virus in chronic non-B, non-C hepatitis patients was evaluated using GBV-C specific PCR and this virus was detected in one out of thirteen patients. This patient has presented a severe liver failure, has lived for a long time in the Western Amazon basin and no other cause for this clinical picture was reported. The impact of the discovery of this new agent is still under evaluation throughout the world. The study of the prevalence of this virus among chronic hepatitis patients and healthy individuals (as blood donors) will furnish subside to evaluate its real pathogenicity.

Childhood astrovirus-associated diarrhea in the ambulatory setting in a Public Hospital in Cordoba city, Argentina

Human astroviruses have been increasingly identified as important agents of diarrheal disease in children. However, the disease burden of astrovirus infection is still incompletely assessed. This paper reports results on the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of astrovirus-associated diarrhea, as well as the impact of astrovirus infection on the ambulatory setting at a Public Hospital in Córdoba city, Argentina. From February 2001 through January 2002, 97 randomly selected outpatient visits for diarrhea among children < 36 months old were enrolled. A single specimen of stool from each child was collected and tested for astrovirus antigen by enzyme immunoassay. Astroviruses were detected in 12.37% of the diarrheal episodes. All the positive cases occurred in children 4 to 18 months, but the highest rate was in children aged 4 to 6 months (23.80%). The clinical symptoms of astrovirus associated-diarrhea were fever 41.66%, vomiting 25.00% and dehydration 8.33%; overall 16.66% required hospitalization. Astrovirus was identified through the year and no seasonally pattern was detected (cool semester 15.21% versus warm semester 9.80% p > 0.05). According to our estimation about one out of seventy-four children in this cohort would be assisted annually for an astroviral-diarrheal episode in the Public Hospital and one out of eight diarrheal cases could be attributed to astrovirus infection. Astrovirus is a common symptomatic infection in pediatric outpatient visits in the public hospital in the study area, contributing 12.37% of the overall morbidity from diarrhea.

Nocardial infections: report of 22 cases

Twenty-two cases of nocardial infections were diagnosed in our city between 1977- 1998. All patients whose clinical specimens showed Nocardia spp. at Gram stain, which were further confirmed by culture, were selected to be included in the study. Data from patients who were cured were compared with those from patients who died by statistical tests using EPIINFO version 6.04 software. Six isolates were identified as Nocardia asteroides complex, one as Nocardia asteroides sensu stricto and other as Nocardia brasiliensis. We had 17 cases of lung nocardiosis, being one out of them also a systemic disease. Other four cases of systemic nocardiosis were diagnosed: nocardial brain abscesses (one); nocardiosis of the jejunum (one); multiple cutaneous abscesses (one); and a case of infective nocardial endocarditis of prosthetic aortic valve. One patient had a mycetoma by N. brasiliensis. Fifteen (68.2%) out of 22 patients were immunosuppressed, being most (93.3%) by high-doses corticotherapy. Mortality by nocardial infection was 41%; mortality of systemic nocardiosis was 60%. Nocardiosis has a bad prognosis in immunosuppressed patients and also in non-immunosuppressed patients if the diagnosis is delayed. We propose that the delay in diagnosis should be examined in larger series to document its influence in the prognosis of the disease.

Is It Possible to Simplify Risk Stratification Scores for Patients with ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction Undergoing Primary Angioplasty?

INTRODUCTION: There are several risk scores for stratification of patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), the most widely used of which are the TIMI and GRACE scores. However, these are complex and require several variables. The aim of this study was to obtain a reduced model with fewer variables and similar predictive and discriminative ability. METHODS: We studied 607 patients (age 62 years, SD=13; 76% male) who were admitted with STEMI and underwent successful primary angioplasty. Our endpoints were all-cause in-hospital and 30-day mortality. Considering all variables from the TIMI and GRACE risk scores, multivariate logistic regression models were fitted to the data to identify the variables that best predicted death. RESULTS: Compared to the TIMI score, the GRACE score had better predictive and discriminative performance for in-hospital mortality, with similar results for 30-day mortality. After data modeling, the variables with highest predictive ability were age, serum creatinine, heart failure and the occurrence of cardiac arrest. The new predictive model was compared with the GRACE risk score, after internal validation using 10-fold cross validation. A similar discriminative performance was obtained and some improvement was achieved in estimates of probabilities of death (increased for patients who died and decreased for those who did not). CONCLUSION: It is possible to simplify risk stratification scores for STEMI and primary angioplasty using only four variables (age, serum creatinine, heart failure and cardiac arrest). This simplified model maintained a good predictive and discriminative performance for short-term mortality.