"Oft expectation fails": a time-series analysis of construction starts in the London office market

Expectations of future market conditions are generally acknowledged to be crucial for the development decision and hence for shaping the built environment. This empirical study of the Central London office market from 1987 to 2009 tests for evidence of adaptive and naive expectations. Applying VAR models and a recursive OLS regression with one-step forecasts, we find evidence of adaptive and naïve, rather than rational expectations of developers. Although the magnitude of the errors and the length of time lags vary over time and development cycles, the results confirm that developers’ decisions are explained to a large extent by contemporaneous and past conditions in both London submarkets. The corollary of this finding is that developers may be able to generate excess profits by exploiting market inefficiencies but this may be hindered in practice by the long periods necessary for planning and construction of the asset. More generally, the results of this study suggest that real estate cycles are largely generated endogenously rather than being the result of unexpected exogenous shocks.

Investigation of flux in flat-plate modules for membrane distillation

A theoretical model for predicting the behaviour of membrane distillation by incorporating mass and heat transfer equations has been used to find permeate fluxes, and has been validated experimentally. The model accurately predicts mass and heat transfer. The main work studied the effect of module design using a flat-plate module in laminar flow conditions. Areas of investigation included the use of channels across the membrane surface, decreasing the available membrane surface area, and widening the inlet and outlet channels. The work showed that widening the channels increased the flux. Increased flux was also obtained by the use of channels on the permeate side, though not on the feed side.

Flat, flatter, flattest: the English Heritage wetland surveys in retrospect

Since 1973, English Heritage has supported four major regional surveys of England's wetlands- in the Somerset Levels, the Fens of Eastern England, the wetlands of the northwest of England and the Humber wetlands. Each of these projects developed a range of methods and techniques particular to the landscape that was studied and the results from the surveys reflect this diversity of approach. This paper compares and contrast these approaches, and evaluates their effect on the overall results of each of these surveys.

Craniosynostosis in Pycnodysostosis: Broadening the Spectrum of the Cranial Flat Bone Abnormalities

Pycnodysostosis is a rare autosomal recessive skeletal dysplasia caused by the absence of active cathepsin K, which is a lysosomal cysteine protease that plays a role in degrading the organic matrix of bones, acting in bone resorption and bone remodeling. The disease is primarily characterized by osteosclerosis, bone fragility, short stature, acro-osteolysis, and delayed closure of the cranial sutures. A differing feature, cranial synostosis, has occasionally been described in this disorder. We reviewed six unrelated patients with pycnodysostosis (mean age of 10 years and 4 months) in order to evaluate the presence of craniosynostosis. In addition to the typical findings of the condition, they all presented premature fusion of the corona! suture. Although none of them showed signs of cranial hypertension, one patient had had the craniosynostosis surgically corrected previously. These data suggest that the cranial sutures in pycnodysostosis can display contradictory features: wide cranial sutures, which are commonly described, and craniosynostosis. The clinical impact of this latter finding still remains to be elucidated. Further studies are necessary to address more precisely the role of cathepsin K in suture patency. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Movements and mechanical stresses in gas-filled flat plate solar collectors

Sealed gas filled flat plate solar collectors will have stresses in the material since volume and pressure varies in the gas when the temperature changes. Several geometries were analyzed and it could be seen that it is possible reducing the stresses and improve the safety factor of the weakest point in the construction by using larger area and/or reducing the distance between glass and absorber and/or change width and height relationship so the tubes are getting longer. Further it could be shown that the safety factor won't always get improved with reinforcements. It is so because when an already strong part of the collector gets reinforced it will expose weaker parts for higher stresses. The finite element method was used for finding out the stresses.

Gas-filled, flat plate solar collectors

This work treats the thermal and mechanical performances of gas-filled, flat plate solar collectors in order to achieve a better performance than that of air filled collectors. The gases examined are argon, krypton and xenon which all have lower thermal conductivity than air. The absorber is formed as a tray connected to the glass. The pressure of the gas inside is near to the ambient and since the gas volume will vary as the temperature changes, there are potential risks for fatigue in the material. One heat transfer model and one mechanical model were built. The mechanical model gave stresses and information on the movements. The factors of safety were calculated from the stresses, and the movements were used as input for the heat transfer model where the thermal performance was calculated. It is shown that gas-filled, flat plate solar collectors can be designed to achieve good thermal performance at a competitive cost. The best yield is achieved with a xenon gas filling together with a normal thick absorber, where normal thick means a 0.25 mm copper absorber. However, a great deal of energy is needed to produce the xenon gas, and if this aspect is taken into account, the krypton filling is better. Good thermal performance can also be achieved using less material; a collector with a 0.1 mm thick copper absorber and the third best gas, which is argon, still gives a better operating performance than a common, commercially produced, air filled collector with a 0.25 mm absorber. When manufacturing gas-filled flat plate solar collectors, one way of decreasing the total material costs significantly, is by changing absorber material from copper to aluminium. Best yield per monetary outlay is given by a thin (0.3 mm) alu-minium absorber with an argon filling. A high factor of safety is achieved with thin absorbers, large absorber areas, rectangular constructions with long tubes and short distances between glass and absorber. The latter will also give a thin layer of gas which gives good thermal performance. The only doubtii ful construction is an argon filled collector with a normal thick (> 0.50 mm) aluminium absorber. In general, an assessment of the stresses for the proposed construction together with appropriate tests are recommended before manufacturing, since it is hard to predict the factor of safety; if one part is reinforced, some other parts can experience more stress and the factor of safety actually drops.

Thermal losses in sealed, gas-filled flat plate solar collectors

A sealed space between absorber and cover glass makes it possible reducing the influence of humidity condensate and dust at the same time as the enclosed space can be filled with a suitable gas for lowering the losses. This paper is about the size of the losses in these collectors. A calculating model of a gas-filled flat plate solar collector was built in Matlab with standard heat transfer formulas. It showed that the total loss can be reduced up to 20% when changing to an inert gas. It is also possible using a much shorter distance and still achieve low losses at the same time as the mechanical stresses in the material is reduce.

Investigation of flat spectrum radio sources by the interplanetary scintillation method at 111 MHz

Abstract. Interplanetary scintillation observations of 48 of the 55 Augusto et al. (1998) flat spectrum radio sources were carried out at 111 MHz using the interplanetary scintillation method on the Large Phased Array (LPA) in Russia. Due to the large size of the LPA beam (1◦ × 0.5◦) a careful inspection of all possible confusion sources was made using extant large radio surveys: 37 of the 48 sources are not confused. We were able to estimate the scintillating flux densities of 13 sources, getting upper limits for the remaining 35. Gathering more or improving extant VLBI data on these sources might significantly improve our results. This proof-of-concept project tells us that compact (<1 ) flat spectrum radio sources show strong enough scintillations at 111 MHz to establish/constrain their spectra (low-frequency end). Key words. galaxies: general – galaxies: active – galaxies: quasars: general

Film based on Y2O3: Eu3+ (5 mol% of Eu3+) for flat panel display

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Vortex state in a mesoscopic flat disk with rough surface

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Encoding mechanisms based on fast oscillations in the retina of the cat and their dependencies on anesthesia

Processing in the visual system starts in the retina. Its complex network of cells with different properties enables for parallel encoding and transmission of visual information to the lateral geniculate nucleus (LGN) and to the cortex. In the retina, it has been shown that responses are often accompanied by fast synchronous oscillations (30 - 90 Hz) in a stimulus-dependent manner. Studies in the frog, rabbit, cat and monkey, have shown strong oscillatory responses to large stimuli which probably encode global stimulus properties, such as size and continuity (Neuenschwander and Singer, 1996; Ishikane et al., 2005). Moreover, simultaneous recordings from different levels in the visual system have demonstrated that the oscillatory patterning of retinal ganglion cell responses are transmitted to the cortex via the LGN (Castelo-Branco et al., 1998). Overall these results suggest that feedforward synchronous oscillations contribute to visual encoding. In the present study on the LGN of the anesthetized cat, we further investigate the role of retinal oscillations in visual processing by applying complex stimuli, such as natural visual scenes, light spots of varying size and contrast, and flickering checkerboards. This is a necessary step for understanding encoding mechanisms in more naturalistic conditions, as currently most data on retinal oscillations have been limited to simple, flashed and stationary stimuli. Correlation analysis of spiking responses confirmed previous results showing that oscillatory responses in the retina (observed here from the LGN responses) largely depend on the size and stationarity of the stimulus. For natural scenes (gray-level and binary movies) oscillations appeared only for brief moments probably when receptive fields were dominated by large continuous, flat-contrast surfaces. Moreover, oscillatory responses to a circle stimulus could be broken with an annular mask indicating that synchronization arises from relatively local interactions among populations of activated cells in the retina. A surprising finding in this study was that retinal oscillations are highly dependent on halothane anesthesia levels. In the absence of halothane, oscillatory activity vanished independent of the characteristics of the stimuli. The same results were obtained for isoflurane, which has similar pharmacological properties. These new and unexpected findings question whether feedfoward oscillations in the early visual system are simply due to an imbalance between excitation and inhibition in the retinal networks generated by the halogenated anesthetics. Further studies in awake behaving animals are necessary to extend these conclusions

Surface finishing of flat pieces when submitted to lapping kinematics on abrasive disc dressed under several overlap factors

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Estratigrafia de sequências do intervalo aptiano ao albino na Bacia do Araripe, NE do Brasil

This study has as a main objective to make a detailed stratigraphic analysis of the Aptian-Albian interval in the east part of Araripe Basin, NE of Brazil which correspond, litostratigraphically, to Rio Da Batateira, Crato, Ipubi and Romualdo formations. The stratigraphic analysis was based on three different stages, the 1D, 2D and 3D analysis; these ones were adapted to the sequence stratigraphy concepts in order to create a chronostratigraphic framework for the study area within the basin. The database used in the present study contains field and well information, wells that belong to Santana Project, carried out by the Ministério de Minas e Energia- DNPM- CPRM from 1977 to 1978. The analysis 1D, which was done separately for each well and outcrop allowed the recognition of 13 sedimentary facies, mainly divided based on predominant litologies and sedimentary structures. Such facies are lithologically represented by pebble, sandstones, claystones, margas and evaporates; these facies are associated in order to characterize different depositional systems, that integrate from the continental environment (fluvial system and lacustre), paralic system (delta system and lagunar) to the marine environment (shelfenvironment). The first one, the fluvial system was divided into two subtypes: meandering fluvial system, characterized by fill channel and floodplain deposits; the facies of this system are associated vertically according to the textural thinning upward cycles (dirting-up trend pattern in well logs). Lacustrine environment is mainly related with the lithotypes of the Crato Formation, it shows a good distribution within the basin, been composed by green claystone deposits and calcareous laminated. Deltaic System represented by prodelta and delta front deposits which coarsening upward tendency. Lagunar system is characterised by the presence of anhydrite and gypsum deposits besides the black claystone deposits with vegetal fragments which do not contain a fauna typically marine. The marine platform system is composed by successions of black and gray claystone with fossiliferous fauna of Dinoflagellates (Spiniferites Mantell, Subtilisphaera Jain e Subtilisphaera Millipied genre) typical of this kind of depositional system. The sedimentary facies described are vertically arranged in cycles with progradational patterns which form textural coersening upward cycles and retrogradational, represented by textural thinning dowward cycles. Based in these cycles, in their stack pattern and the vertical change between these patterns, the systems tracks and the depositional sequences were recognized. The Low System Track (LST) and High System Track (HST) are composed by cycles with progradational stack pattern, whereas the Trangessive System Track (TST) is composed by retrogradational stack pattern cycles. The 2D stratigraphic analysis was done through the carrying out of two stratigraphic sections. For the selection of the datum the deepest maximum flooding surface was chosen, inside the Sequence 1, the execution of these sections allowed to understand the behaviour of six depositional systems along the study area, which were interpreted as cycles of second order or supercycles (cycles between 3 and 10 Ma), according to the Vail, et al (1977) classification. The Sequence 1, the oldest of the six identified is composed by the low, transgressive and high systems tracks. The first two system tracks are formed exclusively by fluvial deposits of the Rio da Batateira Formation whereas the third one includes deltaic and lacustrine deposits of the Crato Formation. The sequences 2 and 3 are formed by the transgressive systems tracks (lake spreading phase) and the highstand system track (lake backward phase). The TST of these sequences are formed by lacustrine deposits whereas HST contains deltaic deposits, indicating high rates of sedimentary supply at the time of it s deposition. The sequence 4 is composed by LST, TST and HST, The TST4 shows a significant fall of the lake base level, this track was developed in conditions of low relation between the creation rate of space of accommodation and the sedimentary influx. The TST4 marks the third phase of expansion of the lacustrine system in the section after the basin´s rift, the lacustrine system established in the previous track starts a backward phase in conditions that the sedimentary supply rate exceeds the creation rate of space accommodation. The sequence 5 was developed in two different phases, the first one is related with the latest expansion stage of the lake, (TST5), the basal track of this sequence. In this phase the base level of the lake rose considerably. The second phase (related to the TST5) indicates the end of the lacustrine domain in the Araripe Basin and the change to lagunar system ant tidal flat, with great portions in the supratidal. These systems were formed by restricted lagoons, with shallow level of water and with intermittent connections with the sea. This, was the phase when the Araripe Basin recorded the most several arid conditions of the whole interval studied, Aptian Albian, conditions that allow the formation of evaporitic deposits. The sequence 6 began its deposition after a significant fall of the sea (LST6). The sequence 6 is without any doubtlessly, the sequence that has deposits that prove the effective entrance of the sea into the Araripe Basin. The TST6, end of this sequence, represents the moment which the sea reaches its maximum level during the Aptian Albian time. The stratigraphic analysis of the Aptian Albian interval made possible the understanding that the main control in the development of the depositional sequences recognized in the Araripe Basin were the variations of the local base level, which are controlled itself by the climate changes

What do very nearly flat detectable cosmic topologies Rook like?

Recent studies of the delectability of the cosmic topology of nearly flat universes have often concentrated on the range of values of Omega(0) given by current observations. Here we study the consequences of taking a range of bounds satisfying \Omega(0) - 1\ much less than 1, which include those expected from future observations such as the Planck mission, as well as those predicted by inflationary models. We show that in this limit, a generic detectable non-flat manifold is locally indistinguishable from either a cylindrical (R-2 X S) or toroidal (R x T-2) manifold, irrespective of its global shape, with the former being more likely. Importantly, this is compatible with some recent indications of the alignment of the quadrupole and octupole moments, based on the analysis of the first year WMAP data. It also implies that in this limit an observer would not be able to distinguish topologically whether the universe is spherical, hyperbolic or flat. By severely restricting the expected topological signatures of detectable isometries, our results provide an effective theoretical framework for interpreting cosmological observations, and can be used to confine the parameter spaces which realistic search strategies, such as the 'circles in the sky' method, need to concentrate on.