Statistical analysis and modelling of weather radar beam propagation conditions in the Po Valley (Italy)

Ground clutter caused by anomalous propagation (anaprop) can affect seriously radar rain rate estimates, particularly in fully automatic radar processing systems, and, if not filtered, can produce frequent false alarms. A statistical study of anomalous propagation detected from two operational C-band radars in the northern Italian region of Emilia Romagna is discussed, paying particular attention to its diurnal and seasonal variability. The analysis shows a high incidence of anaprop in summer, mainly in the morning and evening, due to the humid and hot summer climate of the Po Valley, particularly in the coastal zone. Thereafter, a comparison between different techniques and datasets to retrieve the vertical profile of the refractive index gradient in the boundary layer is also presented. In particular, their capability to detect anomalous propagation conditions is compared. Furthermore, beam path trajectories are simulated using a multilayer ray-tracing model and the influence of the propagation conditions on the beam trajectory and shape is examined. High resolution radiosounding data are identified as the best available dataset to reproduce accurately the local propagation conditions, while lower resolution standard TEMP data suffers from interpolation degradation and Numerical Weather Prediction model data (Lokal Model) are able to retrieve a tendency to superrefraction but not to detect ducting conditions. Observing the ray tracing of the centre, lower and upper limits of the radar antenna 3-dB half-power main beam lobe it is concluded that ducting layers produce a change in the measured volume and in the power distribution that can lead to an additional error in the reflectivity estimate and, subsequently, in the estimated rainfall rate.

Gaussian process framework for pervasive estimation of swimming velocity with body-worn IMU

Presented is an accurate swimming velocity estimation method using an inertial measurement unit (IMU) by employing a simple biomechanical constraint of motion along with Gaussian process regression to deal with sensor inherent errors. Experimental validation shows a velocity RMS error of 9.0 cm/s and high linear correlation when compared with a commercial tethered reference system. The results confirm the practicality of the presented method to estimate swimming velocity using a single low-cost, body-worn IMU.

Spatio-temporal Brain Dynamics Mediating Post-error Behavioral Adjustments.

Optimal behavior relies on flexible adaptation to environmental requirements, notably based on the detection of errors. The impact of error detection on subsequent behavior typically manifests as a slowing down of RTs following errors. Precisely how errors impact the processing of subsequent stimuli and in turn shape behavior remains unresolved. To address these questions, we used an auditory spatial go/no-go task where continual feedback informed participants of whether they were too slow. We contrasted auditory-evoked potentials to left-lateralized go and right no-go stimuli as a function of performance on the preceding go stimuli, generating a 2 × 2 design with "preceding performance" (fast hit [FH], slow hit [SH]) and stimulus type (go, no-go) as within-subject factors. SH trials yielded SH trials on the following trials more often than did FHs, supporting our assumption that SHs engaged effects similar to errors. Electrophysiologically, auditory-evoked potentials modulated topographically as a function of preceding performance 80-110 msec poststimulus onset and then as a function of stimulus type at 110-140 msec, indicative of changes in the underlying brain networks. Source estimations revealed a stronger activity of prefrontal regions to stimuli after successful than error trials, followed by a stronger response of parietal areas to the no-go than go stimuli. We interpret these results in terms of a shift from a fast automatic to a slow controlled form of inhibitory control induced by the detection of errors, manifesting during low-level integration of task-relevant features of subsequent stimuli, which in turn influences response speed.

A new estimator to minimize the error due to breathing in the measurement of respiratory impedance

This paper presents a new respiratory impedance estimator to minimize the error due to breathing. Its practical reliability was evaluated in a simulation using realistic signals. These signals were generated by superposing pressure and flow records obtained in two conditions: 1) when applying forced oscillation to a resistance- inertance- elastance (RIE) mechanical model; 2) when healthy subjects breathed through the unexcited forced oscillation generator. Impedances computed (4-32 Hz) from the simulated signals with the new estimator resulted in a mean value which was scarcely biased by the added breathing (errors less than 1 percent in the mean R, I , and E ) and had a small variability (coefficients of variation of R, I, and E of 1.3, 3.5, and 9.6 percent, respectively). Our results suggest that the proposed estimator reduces the error in measurement of respiratory impedance without appreciable extracomputational cost.

Dielectric constant obtained from TDR and volumetric moisture of soils in southern Brazil

Soil moisture is the property which most greatly influences the soil dielectric constant, which is also influenced by soil mineralogy. The aim of this study was to determine mathematical models for soil moisture and the dielectric constant (Ka) for a Hapludalf, two clayey Hapludox and a very clayey Hapludox and test the reliability of universal models, such as those proposed by Topp and Ledieu and their co-workers in the 80's, and specific models to estimate soil moisture with a TDR. Soil samples were collected from the 0 to 0.30 m layer, sieved through a mesh of 0.002 m diameter and packed in PVC cylinders with a 0.1 m diameter and 0.3 m height. Seven samples of each soil class were saturated by capillarity and a probe composed of two rods was inserted in each one of them. Moisture readings began with the saturated soil and concluded when the soil was near permanent wilting point. In each step, the samples were weighed on a precision scale to calculate volumetric moisture. Linear and polynomial models were adjusted for each soil class and for all soils together between soil moisture and the dielectric constant. Accuracy of the models was evaluated by the coefficient of determination, the standard error of estimate and the 1:1 line. The models proposed by Topp and Ledieu and their co-workers were not adequate for estimating the moisture in the soil classes studied. The adjusted linear and polynomial models for the entire set of data of the four soil classes did not have sufficient accuracy for estimating soil moisture. The greater the soil clay and Fe oxide content, the greater the dielectric constant of the medium for a given volumetric moisture. The specific models, θ = 0.40283 - 0.04231 Ka + 0.00194 Ka² - 0.000022 Ka³ (Hapludox) θ = 0.01971 + 0.02902 Ka - 0.00086 Ka² + 0.000012 Ka³ (Hapludox -PF), θ = 0.01692 - 0.00507 Ka (Hapludalf) and θ = 0.08471 + 0.01145 Ka (Hapludox-CA), show greater accuracy and reliability for estimating soil moisture in the soil classes studied.

On making causal claims: A review and recommendations

Social scientists often estimate models from correlational data, where the independent variable has not been exogenously manipulated; they also make implicit or explicit causal claims based on these models. When can these claims be made? We answer this question by first discussing design and estimation conditions under which model estimates can be interpreted, using the randomized experiment as the gold standard. We show how endogeneity--which includes omitted variables, omitted selection, simultaneity, common methods bias, and measurement error--renders estimates causally uninterpretable. Second, we present methods that allow researchers to test causal claims in situations where randomization is not possible or when causal interpretation is confounded, including fixed-effects panel, sample selection, instrumental variable, regression discontinuity, and difference-in-differences models. Third, we take stock of the methodological rigor with which causal claims are being made in a social sciences discipline by reviewing a representative sample of 110 articles on leadership published in the previous 10 years in top-tier journals. Our key finding is that researchers fail to address at least 66 % and up to 90 % of design and estimation conditions that make causal claims invalid. We conclude by offering 10 suggestions on how to improve non-experimental research.

Herramientas estadísticas para el estudio de perfiles de riesgo

En este documento se ilustra de un modo práctico, el empleo de tres instrumentos que permiten al actuario definir grupos arancelarios y estimar premios de riesgo en el proceso que tasa la clase para el seguro de no vida. El primero es el análisis de segmentación (CHAID y XAID) usado en primer lugar en 1997 por UNESPA en su cartera común de coches. El segundo es un proceso de selección gradual con el modelo de regresión a base de distancia. Y el tercero es un proceso con el modelo conocido y generalizado de regresión linear, que representa la técnica más moderna en la bibliografía actuarial. De estos últimos, si combinamos funciones de eslabón diferentes y distribuciones de error, podemos obtener el aditivo clásico y modelos multiplicativos

On the use of spatially discrete data to compute energy and mass balance

In many practical applications the state of field soils is monitored by recording the evolution of temperature and soil moisture at discrete depths. We theoretically investigate the systematic errors that arise when mass and energy balances are computed directly from these measurements. We show that, even with no measurement or model errors, large residuals might result when finite difference approximations are used to compute fluxes and storage term. To calculate the limits set by the use of spatially discrete measurements on the accuracy of balance closure, we derive an analytical solution to estimate the residual on the basis of the two key parameters: the penetration depth and the distance between the measurements. When the thickness of the control layer for which the balance is computed is comparable to the penetration depth of the forcing (which depends on the thermal diffusivity and on the forcing period) large residuals arise. The residual is also very sensitive to the distance between the measurements, which requires accurately controlling the position of the sensors in field experiments. We also demonstrate that, for the same experimental setup, mass residuals are sensitively larger than the energy residuals due to the nonlinearity of the moisture transport equation. Our analysis suggests that a careful assessment of the systematic mass error introduced by the use of spatially discrete data is required before using fluxes and residuals computed directly from field measurements.

Pedotransfer functions to estimate proctor test parameters under different tillage systems

The Proctor test is time-consuming and requires sampling of several kilograms of soil. Proctor test parameters were predicted in Mollisols, Entisols and Vertisols of the Pampean region of Argentina under different management systems. They were estimated from a minimum number of readily available soil properties (soil texture, total organic C) and management (training data set; n = 73). The results were used to generate a soil compaction susceptibility model, which was subsequently validated using a second group of independent data (test data set; n = 24). Soil maximum bulk density was estimated as follows: Maximum bulk density (Mg m-3) = 1.4756 - 0.00599 total organic C (g kg-1) + 0.0000275 sand (g kg-1) + 0.0539 management. Management was equal to 0 for uncropped and untilled soils and 1 for conventionally tilled soils. The established models predicted the Proctor test parameters reasonably well, based on readily available soil properties. Tillage systems induced changes in the maximum bulk density regardless of total organic matter content or soil texture. The lower maximum apparent bulk density values under no-tillage require a revision of the relative compaction thresholds for different no-tillage crops.

Modeling changes in organic carbon stocks for distinct soils in southeastern brazil after four eucalyptus rotations using the century model

Soil organic matter (SOM) plays an important role in carbon (C) cycle and soil quality. Considering the complexity of factors that control SOM cycling and the long time it usually takes to observe changes in SOM stocks, modeling constitutes a very important tool to understand SOM cycling in forest soils. The following hypotheses were tested: (i) soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks would be higher after several rotations of eucalyptus than in low-productivity pastures; (ii) SOC values simulated by the Century model would describe the data better than the mean of observations. So, the aims of the current study were: (i) to evaluate the SOM dynamics using the Century model to simulate the changes of C stocks for two eucalyptus chronosequences in the Rio Doce Valley, Minas Gerais State, Brazil; and (ii) to compare the C stocks simulated by Century with the C stocks measured in soils of different Orders and regions of the Rio Doce Valley growing eucalyptus. In Belo Oriente (BO), short-rotation eucalyptus plantations had been cultivated for 4.0; 13.0, 22.0, 32.0 and 34.0 years, at a lower elevation and in a warmer climate, while in Virginópolis (VG), these time periods were 8.0, 19.0 and 33.0 years, at a higher elevation and in a milder climate. Soil samples were collected from the 0-20 cm layer to estimate C stocks. Results indicate that the C stocks simulated by the Century model decreased after 37 years of poorly managed pastures in areas previously covered by native forest in the regions of BO and VG. The substitution of poorly managed pastures by eucalyptus in the early 1970´s led to an average increase of C of 0.28 and 0.42 t ha-1 year-1 in BO and VG, respectively. The measured C stocks under eucalyptus in distinct soil Orders and independent regions with variable edapho-climate conditions were not far from the values estimated by the Century model (root mean square error - RMSE = 20.9; model efficiency - EF = 0.29) despite the opposite result obtained with the statistical procedure to test the identity of analytical methods. Only for lower soil C stocks, the model over-estimated the C stock in the 0-20 cm layer. Thus, the Century model is highly promising to detect changes in C stocks in distinct soil orders under eucalyptus, as well as to indicate the impact of harvest residue management on SOM in future rotations.

Evaluation of Sikora instead of SMP buffer to estimate the potential acidity of brazilian soils

Despite the efficiency of the Shoemaker, McLean, Pratt (SMP) buffer method in estimating soil acidity, the presence of p-nitrophenol and potassium chromate in the solution, both hazardous substances, has caused increasing environmental concerns. The purpose of this study was to test Sikora method (Sikora, 2006) as an alternative to the adapted SMP buffer method, generally used to estimate potential acidity of Southern Brazilian soils. For the test, 21 soils in the South and Cerrado regions of Brazil were sampled. (1) The potential acidity values of these soils range from 35.95 to 4.02 cmol c kg-1 of soil, reflecting a wide acidity variation. The Sikora buffer does not mimic the adapted SMP buffer used in Southern Brazil, since the former has a low ability to distinguish soils with different acidity from each other, probably due to the higher buffer capacity than of the adapted SMP solution.