Imported and autochthonous cases in the dynamics of dengue epidemics in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) of dengue fever including both imported and autochthonous cases. METHODS: The study was conducted based on epidemiological data of the 2003 dengue epidemic in Brasília, Brazil. The basic reproduction number is estimated from the epidemic curve, fitting linearly the increase of initial cases. Aiming at simulating an epidemic with both autochthonous and imported cases, a "susceptible-infectious-resistant" compartmental model was designed, in which the imported cases were considered as an external forcing. The ratio between R0 of imported versus autochthonous cases was used as an estimator of real R0. RESULTS: The comparison of both reproduction numbers (only autochthonous versus all cases) showed that considering all cases as autochthonous yielded a R0 above one, although the real R0 was below one. The same results were seen when the method was applied on simulated epidemics with fixed R0. This method was also compared to some previous proposed methods by other authors and showed that the latter underestimated R0 values. CONCLUSIONS: It was shown that the inclusion of both imported and autochthonous cases is crucial for the modeling of the epidemic dynamics, and thus provides critical information for decision makers in charge of prevention and control of this disease.

Conservação e manutenção nos pavimentos rodoviários e a sua importância

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Área de Especialização em Vias de Comunicação e Transportes

Does independent component analysis play a role in unmixing hyperspectral data?

Independent component analysis (ICA) has recently been proposed as a tool to unmix hyperspectral data. ICA is founded on two assumptions: 1) the observed spectrum vector is a linear mixture of the constituent spectra (endmember spectra) weighted by the correspondent abundance fractions (sources); 2)sources are statistically independent. Independent factor analysis (IFA) extends ICA to linear mixtures of independent sources immersed in noise. Concerning hyperspectral data, the first assumption is valid whenever the multiple scattering among the distinct constituent substances (endmembers) is negligible, and the surface is partitioned according to the fractional abundances. The second assumption, however, is violated, since the sum of abundance fractions associated to each pixel is constant due to physical constraints in the data acquisition process. Thus, sources cannot be statistically independent, this compromising the performance of ICA/IFA algorithms in hyperspectral unmixing. This paper studies the impact of hyperspectral source statistical dependence on ICA and IFA performances. We conclude that the accuracy of these methods tends to improve with the increase of the signature variability, of the number of endmembers, and of the signal-to-noise ratio. In any case, there are always endmembers incorrectly unmixed. We arrive to this conclusion by minimizing the mutual information of simulated and real hyperspectral mixtures. The computation of mutual information is based on fitting mixtures of Gaussians to the observed data. A method to sort ICA and IFA estimates in terms of the likelihood of being correctly unmixed is proposed.

Does Independent Component Analysis Play a Role in Unmixing Hyperspectral Data?

Chapter in Book Proceedings with Peer Review First Iberian Conference, IbPRIA 2003, Puerto de Andratx, Mallorca, Spain, JUne 4-6, 2003. Proceedings

Modelação do transporte e dispersão de um marcador corado no Rio Febros

O rio Febros é um pequeno curso de água, situado no concelho de Vila Nova de Gaia, com cerca de 15 km de extensão, cuja bacia hidrográfica ocupa uma área de aproximadamente 35,4 km2. Nasce em Seixezelo e desagua na margem esquerda do Rio Douro no Cais do Esteiro, em Avintes. Em Maio de 2008, um acidente de viação teve como consequência o derrame de cerca de quatro toneladas de ácido clorídrico que rapidamente convergiu às águas do rio. Apenas um dia depois, o pH desceu para três e muitos foram os peixes que morreram. A solução adoptada para evitar o desaire foi introduzir milhares de litros de água de modo a diluir o ácido presente, ao longo de todo o curso de água. Tal facto não evitou a destruição de parte de um ecossistema, que ainda nos dias de hoje se encontra em recuperação. De forma a avaliar-se o impacto destas possíveis perturbações sejam estas de origem antropogénica ou natural é necessário possuir conhecimentos dos processos químicos tais como a advecção, a mistura devida à dispersão e a transferência de massa ar/água. Estes processos irão determinar o movimento e destino das substâncias que poderão ser descarregadas no rio. Para tal, recorrer-se-á ao estudo hidrogeométrico do curso de água assim como ao estudo do comportamento de um marcador, simulando uma possível descarga. A rodamina WT será o marcador a ser utilizado devido à panóplia de características ambientalmente favoráveis. Os estudos de campo com este corante, realizados em sequência de descarga previamente estudada, fornecem uma das melhores fontes de informação para verificação e validação de modelos hidráulicos utilizados em estudos de qualidade de águas e protecção ambiental. Escolheram-se dois pontos de descarga no Febros, um em Casal Drijo e outro no Parque Biológico de Gaia, possuindo cada um deles, a jusante, duas estações de monitorização. Pelo modelo ADE os valores obtidos para o coeficiente de dispersão longitudinal para as estações Pontão d’ Alheira, Pinheiral, Menesas e Giestas foram, respectivamente, 0,3622; 0,5468; 1,6832 e 1,7504 m2/s. Para a mesma sequência de estações, os valores da velocidade de escoamento obtidos neste trabalho experimental foram de 0,0633; 0,0684; 0,1548 e 0,1645 m/s. Quanto ao modelo TS, os valores obtidos para o coeficiente de dispersão longitudinal para as estações Pontão d’ Alheira, Pinheiral, Menesas e Giestas foram, respectivamente, 0,2339; 0,1618; 0,5057e 1,1320 m2/s. Para a mesma sequência de estações, os valores da velocidade de escoamento obtidos neste trabalho experimental foram de 0,0652; 0,0775; 0,1891 e 0,1676 m/s. Os resultados foram ajustados por um método directo, o método dos momentos, e por dois métodos indirectos, os modelos ADE e TS. O melhor ajuste corresponde ao modelo TS onde os valores do coeficiente de dispersão longitudinal e da velocidade de escoamento são aqueles que melhor se aproximam da realidade. Quanto ao método dos momentos, o valor estimado para a velocidade é de 0,162 m/s e para o coeficiente de dispersão longitudinal de 9,769 m2/s. Não obstante, a compreensão da hidrodinâmica do rio e das suas características, bem como a adequação de modelos matemáticos no tratamento de resultados formam uma estratégia de protecção ambiental inerente a futuros impactos que possam suceder.

Soil remediation time to achieve clean-up goals I: influence of soil water content

The current models are not simple enough to allow a quick estimation of the remediation time. This work reports the development of an easy and relatively rapid procedure for the forecasting of the remediation time using vapour extraction. Sandy soils contaminated with cyclohexane and prepared with different water contents were studied. The remediation times estimated through the mathematical fitting of experimental results were compared with those of real soils. The main objectives were: (i) to predict, through a simple mathematical fitting, the remediation time of soils with water contents different from those used in the experiments; (ii) to analyse the influence of soil water content on the: (ii1) remediation time; (ii2) remediation efficiency; and (ii3) distribution of contaminants in the different phases present into the soil matrix after the remediation process. For sandy soils with negligible contents of clay and natural organic matter, artificially contaminated with cyclohexane before vapour extraction, it was concluded that (i) if the soil water content belonged to the range considered in the experiments with the prepared soils, then the remediation time of real soils of similar characteristics could be successfully predicted, with relative differences not higher than 10%, through a simple mathematical fitting of experimental results; (ii) increasing soil water content from 0% to 6% had the following consequences: (ii1) increased remediation time (1.8–4.9 h, respectively); (ii2) decreased remediation efficiency (99–97%, respectively); and (ii3) decreased the amount of contaminant adsorbed onto the soil and in the non-aqueous liquid phase, thus increasing the amount of contaminant in the aqueous and gaseous phases.

Soil remediation time to achieve clean-up goals II: influence of natural organic matter and water contents

This work reports a relatively rapid procedure for the forecasting of the remediation time (RT) of sandy soils contaminated with cyclohexane using vapour extraction. The RT estimated through the mathematical fitting of experimental results was compared with that of real soils. The main objectives were: (i) to predict the RT of soils with natural organic matter (NOM) and water contents different from those used in experiments; and (ii) to analyse the time and efficiency of remediation, and the distribution of contaminants into the soil matrix after the remediation process, according to the soil contents of: (ii1) NOM; and (ii2) water. For sandy soils with negligible clay contents, artificially contaminated with cyclohexane before vapour extraction, it was concluded that: (i) if the NOM and water contents belonged to the range of the prepared soils, the RT of real soils could be predicted with relative differences not higher than 12%; (ii1) the increase of NOM content from 0% to 7.5% increased the RT (1.8–13 h) and decreased the remediation efficiency (RE) (99–90%) and (ii2) the increase of soil water content from 0% to 6% increased the RT (1.8–4.9 h) and decreased the RE (99–97%). NOM increases the monolayer capacity leading to a higher sorption into the solid phase. Increasing of soil water content reduces the mass transfer coefficient between phases. Concluding, NOM and water contents influence negatively the remediation process, turning it less efficient and more time consuming, and consequently more expensive.

Gestão de comportamentos sociais adequados à sala de aula no 1.º ciclo do ensino básico

Relatório de Estágio apresentado à Escola Superior de Educação de Lisboa para obtenção de grau de mestre em Ensino do 1.º e 2.º Ciclo do Ensino Básico

Study of vanadium doped ZnO films prepared by dc reactive magnetron sputtering at different substrate temperatures

ZnO films doped with vanadium (ZnO:V) have been prepared by dc reactive magnetron sputtering technique at different substrate temperatures (RT–500 C). The effects of the substrate temperature on ZnO:V films properties have been studied. XRD measurements show that only ZnO polycrystalline structure has been obtained, no V2O5 or VO2 crystal phase can be observed. It has been found that the film prepared at low substrate temperature has a preferred orientation along the (002) direction. As the substrate temperature is increased, the (002) peak intensity decreases. When the substrate temperature reaches the 500 C, the film shows a random orientation. SEM measurements show a clear formation of the nano-grains in the sample surface when the substrate temperature is higher than 400 C. The optical properties of the films have been studied by measuring the specular transmittance. The refractive index has been calculated by fitting the transmittance spectra using OJL model combined with harmonic oscillator.

Power law analysis of financial index dynamics

Power law PL and fractional calculus are two faces of phenomena with long memory behavior. This paper applies PL description to analyze different periods of the business cycle. With such purpose the evolution of ten important stock market indices DAX, Dow Jones, NASDAQ, Nikkei, NYSE, S&P500, SSEC, HSI, TWII, and BSE over time is studied. An evolutionary algorithm is used for the fitting of the PL parameters. It is observed that the PL curve fitting constitutes a good tool for revealing the signal main characteristics leading to the emergence of the global financial dynamic evolution.

Self-similarity principle: the reduced description of randomness

A new general fitting method based on the Self-Similar (SS) organization of random sequences is presented. The proposed analytical function helps to fit the response of many complex systems when their recorded data form a self-similar curve. The verified SS principle opens new possibilities for the fitting of economical, meteorological and other complex data when the mathematical model is absent but the reduced description in terms of some universal set of the fitting parameters is necessary. This fitting function is verified on economical (price of a commodity versus time) and weather (the Earth’s mean temperature surface data versus time) and for these nontrivial cases it becomes possible to receive a very good fit of initial data set. The general conditions of application of this fitting method describing the response of many complex systems and the forecast possibilities are discussed.

Hydrogen evolution and consumption in AOT–isooctane reverse micelles by Desulfovibrio gigas hydrogenase

The enzyme hydrogenase isolated from the sulphate reducing anaerobic bacterium Desulfovibrio gigas was encapsulated in reverse micelles of AOT–water–isooctane. The enzyme ability to consume molecular hydrogen was studied as a function of the micelle size (given by Wo = [H2O]/[organic solvent]). A peak of catalytic activity was obtained for Wo = 18, a micelle size theoretically fitting the heterodimeric hydrogenase molecule. At this Wo value, the recorded catalytic activity was slightly higher than in a buffer system(Kcat = 169.43 s−1 against the buffer value of 151 s−1). The optimal buffer used to encapsulate the enzyme was found to be imidazole 50 mM, pH 9.0. The molecular hydrogen production activity was also tested in this reverse micelle medium.

The quest for a balanced manpower capacity: different flexibility strategies examined

To cope with permanent fluctuations in demand, organizations are challenged to organize their manpower capacity in a flexible way. Different strategies of manpower planning are being used for this purpose. Using data from the 2002 Panel Survey of Organisations Flanders, we first verify to what extent temporal, contractual and functional flexibility strategies are applied in Flemish organizations. Subsequently, logistic regression is used to analyse the link between these flexible work strategies and a ‘fitting manpower capacity’. While the results show a negative association between the use of temporal or contractual flexibility measures and a balanced manpower capacity, functional flexibility seems to be positively related. The different logics in which numerical and functional flexibility proceed can be labeled as ‘curative’ versus ‘preventive’ strategies of flexibility. Further analyses discern between various interpretations of functional flexibility and assess whether different team types make a contribution to a fitting manpower capacity.

Complex-order forced van der Pol oscillator

In this paper we consider a complex-order forced van der Pol oscillator. The complex derivative Dα1jβ, with α, β ∈ ℝ+, is a generalization of the concept of an integer derivative, where α = 1, β = 0. The Fourier transforms of the periodic solutions of the complex-order forced van der Pol oscillator are computed for various values of parameters such as frequency ω and amplitude b of the external forcing, the damping μ, and parameters α and β. Moreover, we consider two cases: (i) b = 1, μ = {1.0, 5.0, 10.0}, and ω = {0.5, 2.46, 5.0, 20.0}; (ii) ω = 20.0, μ = {1.0, 5.0, 10.0}, and b = {1.0, 5.0, 10.0}. We verified that most of the signal energy is concentrated in the fundamental harmonic ω0. We also observed that the fundamental frequency of the oscillations ω0 varies with α and μ. For the range of tested values, the numerical fitting led to logarithmic approximations for system (7) in the two cases (i) and (ii). In conclusion, we verify that by varying the parameter values α and β of the complex-order derivative in expression (7), we accomplished a very effective way of perturbing the dynamical behavior of the forced van der Pol oscillator, which is no longer limited to parameters b and ω.

Relatório de estágio em reabilitação neurológica: intervenção da fisioterapia em crianças com necessidades especiais

Mestrado em Fisioterapia