The Diffusion of Risks in Public Private Partnership Contracts

Purpose The UK government argues that the benefits of public private partnership (PPP) in delivering public infrastructure stem from: transferring risks to the private sector within a structure in which financiers put their own capital at risk; and, the performance based payment mechanism, reinforced by the due diligence requirements imposed by the lenders financing the projects (HM Treasury, 2010). Prior studies of risk in PPPs have investigated ‘what’ risks are allocated and to ‘whom’, that is to the public or the private sector. The purpose of this study is to examine ‘how’ and ‘why’ PPP risks are diffused by their financiers. Design/methodology/approach This study focuses on the financial structure of PPPs and on their financiers. Empirical evidence comes from interviews conducted with equity and debt financiers. Findings The findings show that the financial structure of the deals generates risk aversion in both debt and equity financiers and that the need to attract affordable finance leads to risk diffusion through a network of companies using various means that include contractual mitigation through insurance, performance support guarantees, interest rate swaps and inflation hedges. Because of the complexity this process generates, both procurers and suppliers need expensive expert advice. The risk aversion and diffusion and the consequent need for advice add cost to the projects impacting on the government’s economic argument for risk transfer. Limitations and implications The empirical work covers the private finance initiative (PFI) type of PPP arrangements and therefore the risk diffusion mechanisms may not be generalisable to other forms of PPP, especially those that do not involve the use of high leverage or private finance. Moreover, the scope of this research is limited to exploring the diffusion of risk in the private sector. Further research is needed on how risk is diffused in other settings and on the value for money implication of risk diffusion in PPP contracts. Originality/value The expectation inherent in PPP is that the private sector will better manage those risks allocated to it and because private capital is at risk, financiers will perform due diligence with the ultimate outcome that only viable projects will proceed. This paper presents empirical evidence that raises questions about these expectations. Key words: public private partnership, risk management, diffusion, private finance initiative, financiers

Evidence from a Baseline Study of Teachers and Young People in Northern Ireland: Implications for Peace Education.

Peace education initiatives in schools are often based on social psychological theories assuming that social identity affects ingroup and outgroup attitudes and, in turn, behaviors relating to relevant outgroups. However, research evidence on the role of young people’s social identity has often failed to take account of different social identity dimensions or to conceptualise outgroup behavior in the context of young people’s understandings of the social world. While recent research relating to bullying and bystander behavior amongst young people has addressed the latter point, this has rarely been considered in conjunction with a differentiated view of social identity. This paper is therefore distinctive as it will address the role of social identity dimensions with regards to behavior as captured in bystander scenarios relating to intergroup discrimination. This is particularly important in the context of divided societies, where peace education initiatives are crucial in promoting positive community relations for the future and where such initiative may be hampered by communities’ concerns about loss of identity and hardened intergroup attitudes. Furthermore, previous research frequently highlighted teachers’ fears to tackle outgroup attitudes in the classroom, especially in contexts where pupils and the wider school community are seen as entrenched in community divisions (Hughes, Donnelly, Hewstone, Gallagher & Carlisle, 2010). However, there is no research investigating the relationship between pupils’ attitudes and teacher confidence to talk about such issues in the classroom, which is explored in this paper.

In the context of Northern Ireland, a divided society emerging from sectarian conflict, social identity, outgroup attitudes and outgroup behaviours have been key concepts addressed by peace educators for many years. Building on this work, this paper provides a detailed picture of young people’s strength of group identification and their willingness to explore ingroup perspectives, sectarian attitudes and their reported willingness to challenge sectarian bullying. Using data from a baseline survey, which forms part of a randomized control trial investigating the effect of an educational intervention aimed to promote reconciliation, the sample involved young people of different denominational backgrounds, attending separate school sectors. The baseline data will be used to compare with post intervention data. Therefore, the data and its findings would be of particular interest to educators and policy makers in other European countries who are working to develop peace education interventions in societies emerging from conflict. Additionally, this paper considers the results from a baseline teacher survey, collected before training and teaching of the intervention began. The teacher survey focused on confidence in tackling sectarian issues in the classroom, previous experience of teaching such issues and their hopes and concerns for the reconciliation intervention.

This paper therefore set out to investigate the relationship between dimensional concept of social identity, sectarian attitudes and pupils’ reported willingness to challenge sectarian bullying and to compare this with their teachers’ attitudes to teaching about sectarian issues in the classroom.



Method

The pupil sample included 35 primary and post-primary schools and about 800 pupils from 8-11 years old who completed an online questionnaire in December 2011 and January 2012. Main instruments for young people’s survey included an adapted version of the Multi-ethnic identity measure (Phinney, 1992) incorporating the dimensions identity affirmation and exploration, outgroup attitude scales, including an adaptation of the social distance measure (Bogardus, 1947), as well as a measure adapted from Palmer and Cameron (2011) involving scenarios to capture pupils’ intentions in bystander situations relating to intergroup discrimination. Results are analysed using regression analysis and take account of potential gender and religious differences. The teacher questionnaire was completed by the 35 primary and post-primary teachers who will deliver the intervention. Results are analysed in terms of how teachers’ responses compare with their pupil attitudes by considering their confidence in tackling sectarian issues in the classroom and how their previous experience and training relate to their hopes and concerns for the intervention.


Expected Outcomes

Results from the young people’s survey are discussed in the light of the role of social identity dimensions and their relationship to sectarian attitudes and reported bystander behaviour in sectarian school incidents. Furthermore, results related to pupils’ sectarian attitudes will be compared with teachers’ reported confidence in tackling sectarianism in the classroom. The teacher questionnaire also presents interesting findings in relation to teachers’ previous training and experience and how this may influence different perspectives on peace and reconciliation interventions and their expectations of what these could achieve. The paper concludes with potential implications for peace education initiatives and related teacher training in Northern Ireland and beyond. The implications will be of particular interest to policy makers, educators and those working in the area of peace education to design and implement interventions.


References

Bogardus, E. S. (1947) Measurement of Personal-Group Relations. Sociometry, 10: 4: 306–311. Hughes, J., Donnelly, C., Hewstone, M., Gallagher, T. & Carlisle, K. (2010) School partnerships and reconciliation: An evaluation of school collaboration in Northern Ireland. Belfast: Queen’s University Belfast. Available online: http://www.schoolsworkingtogether.com/documents/School%20collaboration%20in%20NI%202010.pdf. (accessed 27th Jan 2010) Palmer, S. & Cameron, L. (2011, May). What are the moderators and mediators of children’s bystander behaviour in the context of intergroup discrimination? Paper session presented at the UNA Global Biennial Conference 2011: Building Peaceable Communities: The Power of Early Childhood, Amsterdam, Holland. Phinney, J. S. (1992). The Multigroup Ethnic Identity Measure: A new scale for use with diverse groups. Journal of Adolescent Research, 7, 156–176.

Hip protectors to prevent hip fractures - a waste of time and money?

Abstract:
Background: An estimated 30-60% of older
adults fall every year and about 1% of falls result in a hip fracture. Hip fracture is a serious and growing problem, with a 3-10 fold rise in worldwide incidence predicted by 2050 (Gullberg, et al 1997). Hip protectors are underwear with built in protection for the greater trochanter. They are designed to prevent hip fractures by dispersing or absorbing the force of a fall. Trials
published to 2001 were broadly supportive of
the effectiveness of hip protectors, and this
was reflected in a Cochrane review in 2000.
However, earlier trials were methodologically
flawed and subsequent trials have not demonstrated effectiveness. The most recent Cochrane review describes only a marginal benefit (Parker et al, 2005).
Review and Discussion: This presentation
evaluates the current evidence for the use
of hip protectors and discusses the use of
that evidence by manufacturers, suppliers,
professional groups and guideline developers.
Interestingly, despite the limitations of the
evidence base, most advice has been broadly
supportive. Reasons for this are proposed
and discussed in the context of a critique of
evidence-based healthcare. protectors. However, the available evidence can be used in different ways and for different purposes by those with an interest in promoting
the use of hip protectors. A conservative
approach is warranted, where, if we cannot
demonstrate that hip protectors work, we
presume that they do not. This presentation will be of use to practitioners wanting to evaluate the evidence base for hip protectors (and other recommended interventions) on behalf of clients. It will also be of interest to policy makers who must assess the claims made for health care technologies as part of the decisionmaking process.
Recommended reading:
Gullberg B, Johnell O, Kanis JA (1997) Worldwide
projections for hip fracture. Osteoporos
Int. 7(5):407-13 .
Parker MJ, Gillespie WJ, Gillespie LD (2005) Hip
protectors for preventing hip fractures in older
people. The Cochrane Database of Systematic
Reviews Issue 3. Art. No.: CD001255.pub3. DOI:
10.1002/14651858.CD001255.pub3.

Security Enhancement of Cooperative Single Carrier Systems

In this paper, the impact of multiple active eavesdroppers on cooperative single carrier systems with multiple relays and multiple destinations is examined. To achieve the secrecy diversity gains in the form of opportunistic selection, a two-stage scheme is proposed for joint relay and destination selection, in which, after the selection of the relay with the minimum effective maximum signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) to a cluster of eavesdroppers, the destination that has the maximum SNR from the chosen relay is selected. In order to accurately assess the secrecy performance, the exact and asymptotic expressions are obtained in closed-form for several security metrics including the secrecy outage probability, the probability of non-zero secrecy rate, and the ergodic secrecy rate in frequency selective fading. Based on the asymptotic analysis, key design parameters such as secrecy diversity gain, secrecy array gain, secrecy multiplexing gain, and power cost are characterized, from which new insights are drawn. Moreover, it is concluded that secrecy performance limits occur when the average received power at the eavesdropper is proportional to the counterpart at the destination. Specifically, for the secrecy outage probability, it is confirmed that the secrecy diversity gain collapses to zero with outage floor, whereas for the ergodic secrecy rate, it is confirmed confirm that its slope collapses to zero with capacity ceiling.

The Impact of Extension and Ecosystem Services on Smallholders’ Credit Constraint.

On formal credit markets, access to formal credit and reasonable credit terms of smallholder farmers
in rural sub-Saharan Africa is limited due to adverse selection. Financial institutions operating in
rural areas often cannot distinguish between borrowers (farmers) that are creditworthy and those that
are not, thus, allocate limited resource to agriculture to reduce credit risk. In the presence of limited business quality signaling by smallholder farmers, financial institutions shall demand for collateral and/or offer unfavorable contract terms. Moreover, agricultural productivity of rural sub-Saharan
Africa, dominated by subsistence or small-scale farmers, is also negatively impacted by the adverse
effect of climate change. A strategy that may make the farming practices of smallholder farmer’s
climate resilient and profitable may also improve smallholder farmer's access to formal credit. This
study investigates to what extent participating in ecosystem and extension services (EES) programs
signals business quality of smallholders, thus granting them credit accessibility. We collected data
on 210 smallholder farmers in 2013, comprising farmers that receive payments for ecosystem
services (PES) and farm management training from the International Small Group Tree Planting
Program (TIST) Kenya to test the aforementioned theory empirically. We use game theory,
particularly a screening and sorting model, to illustrate the prospects for farmers with EES to access
formal credit and to improve their credit terms given that they receive PES and banking services
training. Furthermore, the PES’ long term duration (10 – 30 years) generates stable cash-flow which
may be perceived as collateral substitute. Results suggest that smallholder farmers in the TIST
program were less likely to be credit constraint compared to non-TIST farmers. Distance to market,
education, livestock and farm income are factors that determine access to credit from microfinance
institutions in rural Kenya. Amongst farmers that have obtained loans, those keeping business records
enjoy more favorable formal credit conditions. These farmers were observed to pay ca. 5 percent less
interest rate in microfinance charges. For TIST farmers, this type of farm management practices may
be attributed to the banking services and other training they receive within the program. While the
availability of classical collateral (farmlands) and PES may reduce interest rate, the latter was found
to be statistically insignificant. This research underlines the importance of an effective extension
services in rural areas of developing countries and the need to improve gains from conservation
agriculture and ensuing PES. The benefits associated with EES and PES may encompass agricultural
financing.

Hotel Valuation Software, Version 4.0

[Updated August 2016] The Hotel Valuation Software, freely available from Cornell’s Center for Hospitality Research, has been updated to reflect the many changes in the 11th Edition of the Uniform System of Accounts for the Lodging Industry (USALI). Version 4.0 of the Hotel Valuation Software provides numerous enhancements over the original tool from 2011. In addition to a significant increase in functionality and an update to reflect the 11th edition of the USALI, Version 4.0 takes advantage of the power of the latest release of Microsoft Excel®. Note that Version 4.0 works only on a PC running Microsoft Windows, it does not work on a Mac running OS X. Users desiring an OS X compatible version should click here (Labeled as Version 2.5). 酒店评估软件手册和三个程序（点击这里 ) Users desiring a Mandarin version of the Hotel Valuation Software should click here The Hotel Valuation Software remains the only non-proprietary computer software designed specifically to assist in the preparation of market studies, forecasts of income and expense, and valuations for lodging property. The software provides an accurate, consistent, and cost-effective way for hospitality professionals to forecast occupancy, revenues and expenses and to perform hotel valuations. Version 4.0 of the Hotel Valuation Software includes the following upgrades – a complete update to reflect the 11th edition of the USALI – the most significant change to the chart of accounts in a generation, an average daily rate forecasting tool, a much more sophisticated valuation module, and an optional valuation tool useful in periods of limited capital liquidity. Using established methodology, the Hotel Valuation Software is a sophisticated tool for lodging professionals. The tool consists of three separate software programs written as Microsoft Excel files and a software users' guide. The tool is provided through the generosity of HVS and the School of Hotel Administration. The three software modules are: Room Night Analysis and Average Daily Rate: Enables the analyst to evaluate the various competitive factors such as occupancy, average room rate, and market segmentation for competitive hotels in a local market. Calculates the area-wide occupancy and average room rate, as well as the competitive market mix. Produce a forecast of occupancy and average daily rate for existing and proposed hotels in a local market. The program incorporates such factors as competitive occupancies, market segmentation, unaccommodated demand, latent demand, growth of demand, and the relative competitiveness of each property in the local market. The program outputs include ten-year projections of occupancy and average daily rate. Fixed and Variable Revenue and Expense Analysis: The key to any market study and valuation is a supportable forecast of revenues and expenses. Hotel revenue and expenses are comprised of many different components that display certain fixed and variable relationships to each other. This program enables the analyst to input comparable financial operating data and forecast a complete 11-year income and expense statement by defining a small set of inputs: The expected future occupancy levels for the subject hotel Base year operating data for the subject hotel Fixed and variable relationships for revenues and expenses Expected inflation rates for revenues and expenses Hotel Capitalization Software: A discounted cash flow valuation model utilizing the mortgage-equity technique forms the basis for this program. Values are produced using three distinct underwriting criteria: A loan-to-value ratio, in which the size of the mortgage is based on property value. A debt coverage ratio (also known as a debt-service coverage ratio), in which the size of the mortgage is based on property level cash flow, mortgage interest rate, and mortgage amortization. A debt yield, in which the size of the mortgage is based on property level cash flow. By entering the terms of typical lodging financing, along with a forecast of revenue and expense, the program determines the value that provides the stated returns to the mortgage and equity components. The program allows for a variable holding period from four to ten years The program includes an optional model useful during periods of capital market illiquidity that assumes a property refinancing during the holding period

HOTVal Toolkit

**************************************************************************** Scroll down to "Additional Files" to access the HOTVal Toolkit. **************************************************************************** HOTVal is a hotel valuation spreadsheet based on a regression model discussed in the Center for Real Estate and Finance at Cornell called Cornell Hotel Indices: Second Quarter 2012: The Trend is Our Friend by Crocker H. Liu, Adam D. Nowak, and Robert M. White, Jr. The model which will be continually updated, provides a rough estimation of the value of a hotel property once the user inputs information on whether the hotel is a large or small hotel, the year and quarter of the valuation, the state where the property is located, the number of rooms, the number of floors, the land area of the hotel property, the actual age of the hotel and whether the hotel is located in a Gateway city. For the first three inputs as well as the last input, if the user clicks on a cell highlighted in yellow, a pull down menu will appear to expedite inputting. The model is provided as a free public service by The Center for Real Estate and Finance at the School of Hotel Administration at Cornell University to academics and practitioners on an as-is, best-effort basis with no warranties or claims regarding its usefulness or implications. The estimates should be considered preliminary and subject to revision. *This October 2016 version updates the previous Hotel Valuation model, published in 2012 , provides valuation estimates up to and including the third quarter of 2016.

LLF schedulability analysis on multiprocessor platforms

LLF (Least Laxity First) scheduling, which assigns a higher priority to a task with smaller laxity, has been known as an optimal preemptive scheduling algorithm on a single processor platform. However, its characteristics upon multiprocessor platforms have been little studied until now. Orthogonally, it has remained open how to efficiently schedule general task systems, including constrained deadline task systems, upon multiprocessors. Recent studies have introduced zero laxity (ZL) policy, which assigns a higher priority to a task with zero laxity, as a promising scheduling approach for such systems (e.g., EDZL). Towards understanding the importance of laxity in multiprocessor scheduling, this paper investigates the characteristics of ZL policy and presents the first ZL schedulability test for any work-conserving scheduling algorithm that employs this policy. It then investigates the characteristics of LLF scheduling, which also employs the ZL policy, and derives the first LLF-specific schedulability test on multiprocessors. It is shown that the proposed LLF test dominates the ZL test as well as the state-of-art EDZL test.

A estruturação dos determinantes relevantes no processo de decisão do investimento direto estrangeiro em Portugal e em Espanha

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças, sob orientação do Dr. Luís Pereira Gomes

Determinantes da procura da Bitcoin

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças, sob orientação da Professora Doutora Celsa Maria Carvalho Machado

Principal component analysis of the yield curve

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Determinants of venture capital and private equity investments in renewable energy: A cross-country study

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Impact of Black-Scholes assumptions on Delta Hedging

In this work we are going to evaluate the different assumptions used in the Black- Scholes-Merton pricing model, namely log-normality of returns, continuous interest rates, inexistence of dividends and transaction costs, and the consequences of using them to hedge different options in real markets, where they often fail to verify. We are going to conduct a series of tests in simulated underlying price series, where alternatively each assumption will be violated and every option delta hedging profit and loss analysed. Ultimately we will monitor how the aggressiveness of an option payoff causes its hedging to be more vulnerable to profit and loss variations, caused by the referred assumptions.

A comparative review of risk based portfolio allocations: An empirical study throughout rising yields

Since the financial crisis, risk based portfolio allocations have gained a great deal in popularity. This increase in popularity is primarily due to the fact that they make no assumptions as to the expected return of the assets in the portfolio. These portfolios implicitly put risk management at the heart of asset allocation and thus their recent appeal. This paper will serve as a comparison of four well-known risk based portfolio allocation methods; minimum variance, maximum diversification, inverse volatility and equally weighted risk contribution. Empirical backtests will be performed throughout rising interest rate periods from 1953 to 2015. Additionally, I will compare these portfolios to more simple allocation methods, such as equally weighted and a 60/40 asset-allocation mix. This paper will help to answer the question if these portfolios can survive in a rising interest rate environment.

Determinants of bankruptcy protection duration for Canadian firms

The present thesis examines the determinants of the bankruptcy protection duration for Canadian firms. Using a sample of Canadian firms that filed for bankruptcy protection between the calendar years 1992 and 2009, we fmd that the firm age, the industry adjusted operating margin, the default spread, the industrial production growth rate or the interest rate are influential factors on determining the length of the protection period. Older firms tend to stay longer under protection from creditors. As older firms have more complicated structures and issues to settle, the risk of exiting soon the protection (the hazard rate) is small. We also find that firms that perform better than their benchmark as measured by the industry they belong to, tend to leave quickly the bankruptcy protection state. We conclude that the fate of relatively successful companies is determined faster. Moreover, we report that it takes less time to achieve a final solution to firms under bankrupt~y when the default spread is low or when the appetite for risk is high. Conversely, during periods of high default spreads and flight for quality, it takes longer time to resolve the bankruptcy issue. This last finding may suggest that troubled firms should place themselves under protection when spreads are low. However, this ignores the endogeneity issue: high default spread may cause and incidentally reflect higher bankruptcy rates in the economy. Indeed, we find that bankruptcy protection is longer during economic downturns. We explain this relation by the natural increase in default rate among firms (and individuals) during economically troubled times. Default spreads are usually larger during these harsh periods as investors become more risk averse since their wealth shrinks. Using a Log-logistic hazard model, we also fmd that firms that file under the Companies' Creditors Arrangement Act (CCAA) protection spend longer time restructuring than firms that filed under the Bankruptcy and Insolvency Act (BIA). As BIA is more statutory and less flexible, solutions can be reached faster by court orders.