Extinction risk in cloud forest fragments under climate change and habitat loss

Aim: To quantify the consequences of major threats to biodiversity, such as climate and land-use change, it is important to use explicit measures of species persistence, such as extinction risk. The extinction risk of metapopulations can be approximated through simple models, providing a regional snapshot of the extinction probability of a species. We evaluated the extinction risk of three species under different climate change scenarios in three different regions of the Mexican cloud forest, a highly fragmented habitat that is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Location: Cloud forests in Mexico. Methods: Using Maxent, we estimated the potential distribution of cloud forest for three different time horizons (2030, 2050 and 2080) and their overlap with protected areas. Then, we calculated the extinction risk of three contrasting vertebrate species for two scenarios: (1) climate change only (all suitable areas of cloud forest through time) and (2) climate and land-use change (only suitable areas within a currently protected area), using an explicit patch-occupancy approximation model and calculating the joint probability of all populations becoming extinct when the number of remaining patches was less than five. Results: Our results show that the extent of environmentally suitable areas for cloud forest in Mexico will sharply decline in the next 70 years. We discovered that if all habitat outside protected areas is transformed, then only species with small area requirements are likely to persist. With habitat loss through climate change only, high dispersal rates are sufficient for persistence, but this requires protection of all remaining cloud forest areas. Main conclusions: Even if high dispersal rates mitigate the extinction risk of species due to climate change, the synergistic impacts of changing climate and land use further threaten the persistence of species with higher area requirements. Our approach for assessing the impacts of threats on biodiversity is particularly useful when there is little time or data for detailed population viability analyses. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Behaviour of LSF floor systems with improved joist sections under fire conditions

Fire safety design of buildings is essential to safeguard lives and minimize the loss of damage to properties. Light-weight cold-formed steel channel sections along with fire resistive plasterboards are used to construct light gauge steel frame floor systems to provide the required fire resistance rating. However, simply adding more plasterboard layers is not an efficient method to increase FRR. Hence this research focuses on using joists with improved joist section profiles such as hollow flange sections to increase the structural capacity of floor systems under fire conditions and thus their FRR. In this research, the structural and thermal behaviour of LSF floor systems made of LiteSteel Beams with different plasterboard and insulation configurations was investigated using four full scale tests under standard fires. Based on the ultimate failure load of the floor joist at ambient temperature, transient state fire tests were conducted for different Load Ratios. These fire tests showed that the new LSF floor system has improved the FRR well above that of those made of lipped channel sections. The joist failure was predominantly due to local buckling of LSB compression flanges near mid-span with severe yielding of tension flanges. Fire tests have provided valuable structural and thermal performance data of tested floor systems that included time-temperature profiles, and failure times and temperatures. Average failure temperatures of LSB joists and reduced yield strengths were used to predict their ultimate moment capacities, which were compared with corresponding test capacities. This allowed an assessment in relation to the accuracy of current design rules for steel joists at elevated temperatures. This paper presents the details of full scale fire tests of LSF floor systems made of LSB joists with different plasterboard and insulation configurations and their results along with some important findings.

Changing citizen confidence: Orientations towards political and social institutions in Australia, 1983-2010 [Review]

Since the early 1980s, when confidence in institutions was first measured in an Australian academic social survey, Australia - And the world - has faced many political, social and economic changes. From corporate scandals and company collapses, to unprecedented terrorist attacks, to major ongoing international conflicts, to changes in government and all manner of political machinations, to the global financial crisis and its aftermath. One consequence of such developments has been that many major political, social and economic institutions have come under intense pressure. Using survey research data, this paper investigates how public confidence in various Australian institutions and organisations has changed over time. The results are variable and in some instances surprising. Confidence in some institutions has remained high, and in some low, over an extended period of time. In other cases, confidence has varied quite markedly at different time points. As well as looking at trends in the level of public confidence in institutions, the paper examines different dimensions of confidence together with underpinning socio-political factors. It also discusses theoretical and practical implications of the data.

Mechanical behavior of circular and square concrete filled steel tube stub columns under local compression

This paper presents a combined experimental and numerical study on the behaviour of both circular and square concrete-filled steel tube (CFT) stub columns under local compression. Twelve circular and eight square CFT stub columns were tested to study their bearing capacity and the key influential parameters. A 3D finite element model was established for simulation and parametric study to investigate the structural behaviour of the stub columns. The numerical results agreed well with the experimental results. In addition, analytical formulas were proposed to calculate the load bearing capacity of CFT stub columns under local compression.

Comparative durability study of CFRP strengthened tubular steel members under cold weather

In strengthening systems, the CFRP (Carbon Fibre Reinforced Polymer) materials typically have excellent resistance against environmental conditions; however, the performance of adhesives between CFRP and steel is generally affected by various environmental conditions such as marine environment, cold and hot weather. This paper presents the comparative durability study of CFRP strengthened tubular steel structures by using two different adhesives such as MBrace saturant and Araldite K630 under four-point bending. The program consisted of testing twelve CFRP strengthened specimens having treated with epoxy based adhesion promoter, untreated surface and one unstrengthened specimen and conditioned under cold weather for 3 and 6 months to determine the environmental durability. The beams were then loaded to failure in quasi-static manner under four-point bending. The structural responses of CFRP strengthened tubular steel beams were compared in terms of failure load, stiffness and modes of failure. The research findings show that the cold weather immersion had adversely affected the durability of CFRP strengthened steel members. Design factor is also proposed to address the short-terms durability performance under cold weather.

Effect of bond length on the behaviour of CFRP strengthened concrete-filled steel tubes under transverse impact

Concrete-filled steel tubular (CFST) columns have shown great potential as axial load carrying member and used widely in many mission critical infrastructures. However, attention is needed to strengthen these members where transverse impact force is expected to occur due to vehicle collisions. In this work, finite element (FE) model of carbon fibre reinforced polymer (CFRP) strengthened CFST columns are developed and the effect of CFRP bond length is investigated under transverse impact loading. Initially the numerical models have been validated by comparing impact test results from literature. The validated models are then used for detail parametric studies by varying the length of externally bonded CFRP composites. The parameters considered for this research are impact velocity, impact mass, CFRP modulus, adhesive type, and axial static loading. It has been observed that the effect of CFRP strengthening is consistent after an optimum effective bond length of CFRP wrapping. The effect of effective bond length has been studied for above parameters. The results show that, under combined axial static and transverse impact loads CFST columns can successfully prevent global buckling failure by strengthening only 34% of column length. Therefore, estimation of effective bond length is essential to utilise the CFRP composites cost effectively.

Fire design rules for load bearing cold-formed steel frame walls exposed to realistic design fire curves

Light gauge Steel Frame (LSF) walls are extensively used in the building industry due to the many advantages they provide over other wall systems. Although LSF walls have been used widely, fire design of LSF walls is based on approximate prescriptive methods based on limited fire tests. Also these fire tests were conducted using the standard fire curve [1] and the applicability of available design rules to realistic design fire curves has not been verified. This paper investigates the accuracy of existing fire design rules in the current cold-formed steel standards and the modifications proposed by previous researchers. Of these the recently developed design rules by Gunalan and Mahendran [2] based on Eurocode 3 Part 1.3 [3] and AS/NZS 4600 [4] for standard fire exposure [1] were investigated in detail to determine their applicability to predict the axial compression strengths and fire resistance ratings of LSF walls exposed to realistic design fire curves. This paper also presents the fire performance results of LSF walls exposed to a range of realistic fire curves obtained using a finite element analysis based parametric study. The results from the parametric study were used to develop a simplified design method based on the critical hot flange temperature to predict the fire resistance ratings of LSF walls exposed to realistic fire curves. Finally, the stud failure times (fire resistance rating) obtained from the fire design rules and the simplified design method were compared with parametric study results for LSF walls lined with single and double plasterboards, and externally insulated with rock fibres under realistic fire curves.

Behaviour and strength of hollow flange channel sections under torsion and bending

Hollow flange channel section is a cold-formed high-strength and thin-walled steel section with a unique shape including two rectangular hollow flanges and a slender web. Due to its mono-symmetric characteristics, it will also be subjected to torsion when subjected to transverse loads in practical applications. Past research on steel beams subject to torsion has concentrated on open sections while very few steel design standards give suitable design rules for torsion design. Since the hollow flange channel section is different from conventional open sections, its torsional behaviour remains unknown to researchers. Therefore the elastic behaviour of hollow flange channel sections subject to uniform and non-uniform torsion, and combined torsion and bending was investigated using the solutions of appropriate differential equilibrium equations. The section torsion shear flow, warping normal stress distribution, and section constants including torsion constant and warping constant were obtained. The results were compared with those from finite element analyses that verified the accuracy of analytical solutions. Parametric studies were undertaken for simply supported beams subject to a uniformly distributed torque and a uniformly distributed transverse load applied away from the shear centre. This paper presents the details of this research into the elastic behaviour and strength of hollow flange channel sections subject to torsion and bending and the results.

Parametric study on cement-based soft-hard-soft (SHS) multi-layer composite pavement against blast load

An innovative cement-based soft-hard-soft (SHS) multi-layer composite has been developed for protective infrastructures. Such composite consists of three layers including asphalt concrete (AC), high strength concrete (HSC), and engineered cementitious composites (ECC). A three dimensional benchmark numerical model for this SHS composite as pavement under blast load was established using LSDYNA and validated by field blast test. Parametric studies were carried out to investigate the influence of a few key parameters including thickness and strength of HSC and ECC layers, interface properties, soil conditions on the blast resistance of the composite. The outcomes of this study also enabled the establishment of a damage pattern chart for protective pavement design and rapid repair after blast load. Efficient methods to further improve the blast resistance of the SHS multi-layer pavement system were also recommended.

Visual openness in urban environments: Measuring visual openness and visibility to natural landscapes in a changing urban landscape in Gold Coast, Australia

The visual characteristics of urban environments have been changing dramatically with the growth of cities around the world. Protection and enhancement of landscape character in urban environments have been one of the challenges for policy makers in addressing sustainable urban growth. Visual openness and enclosure in urban environments are important attributes in perception of visual space which affect the human interaction with physical space and which can be often modified by new developments. Measuring visual openness in urban areas results in more accurate, reliable, and systematic approach to manage and control visual qualities in growing cities. Recent advances in techniques in geographic information systems (GIS) and survey systems make it feasible to measure and quantify this attribute with a high degree of realism and precision. Previous studies in this field do not take full advantage of these improvements. This paper proposes a method to measure the visual openness and enclosure in a changing urban landscape in Australia, on the Gold Coast, by using the improved functionality in GIS. Using this method, visual openness is calculated and described for all publicly accessible areas in the selected study area. A final map is produced which shows the areas with highest visual openness and visibility to natural landscape resources. The output of this research can be used by planners and decision-makers in managing and controlling views in complex urban landscapes. Also, depending on the availability of GIS data, this method can be applied to any region including non-urban landscapes to help planners and policy-makers manage views and visual qualities.

An Efficient Load Distribution Strategy for a Distributed Linear Network of Processors with Communication Delays

In this paper, we present an improved load distribution strategy, for arbitrarily divisible processing loads, to minimize the processing time in a distributed linear network of communicating processors by an efficient utilization of their front-ends. Closed-form solutions are derived, with the processing load originating at the boundary and at the interior of the network, under some important conditions on the arrangement of processors and links in the network. Asymptotic analysis is carried out to explore the ultimate performance limits of such networks. Two important theorems are stated regarding the optimal load sequence and the optimal load origination point. Comparative study of this new strategy with an earlier strategy is also presented.

Elastic analysis of pin joints in plates under some combined pin and plate loads

Joints are primary sources of weakness in structures. Pin joints are very common and are used where periodic disassembly of components is needed. A circular pin in a circular hole in an infinitely large plate is an abstraction of such a pin joint. A two-dimensional plane-stress analysis of such a configuration is carried out, here, subjected to pin-bearing and/or biaxial-plate loading. The pin is assumed to be rigid compared to the plate material. For pin load the reactive stresses at the edges of the infinite plate tend to zero though their integral over the external boundary equals to the pin load. The pin-hole interface is unbonded and so beyond some load levels the plate separates from the pin and the extent of separation is a non-linear function of load level. The problem is solved by inverse technique where the extent of contact is specified and the causative loads are evaluated directly. In the situations where combined load is acting the separation-contact zone specification generally needs two parameters (angles) to be specified. The present report deals with analysing such a situation in metallic (or isotropic) plates. Numerical results are provided for parametric representation and the methodology is demonstrated.

Assessment of transit quality of service with occupancy load factor and passenger travel time measures

This paper investigates quality of service (QoS) and resource productivity implications of transit route passenger loading and travel time. It highlights the value of occupancy load factor as a direct passenger comfort QoS measure. Automatic Fare Collection data for a premium radial bus route in Brisbane, Australia, is used to investigate time series correlation between occupancy load factor and passenger average travel time. Correlation is strong across the entire span of service in both directions. Passengers tend to be making longer, peak direction commuter trips under significantly less comfortable conditions than off-peak. The Transit Capacity and Quality of Service Manual uses segment based load factor as a measure of onboard loading comfort QoS. This paper provides additional insight into QoS by relating the two route based dimensions of occupancy load factor and passenger average travel time together in a two dimensional format, both from the passenger’s and operator’s perspectives. Future research will apply Value of Time to QoS measurement, reflecting perceived passenger comfort through crowding and average time spent onboard. This would also assist in transit service quality econometric modeling. The methodology can be readily applied in a practical setting where AFC data for fixed scheduled routes is available. The study outcomes also provide valuable research and development directions.

The changing face of conveyancing responsibility

In this note the authors examine two cases, one from Australia, the other from New Zealand, both of which explore the responsibility of legal practitioners engaged as professionals in the buying and selling of land. What is shown is that the allocation of risk and responsibility is constantly under scrutiny for those involved in the conveyancing process, something which the nascent Australian electronic conveyancing protocols will only heighten.

Amelioration of soil compaction can take 5 years on a Vertisol under no till in the semi-arid subtropics

Heavy wheel traffic causes soil compaction, which adversely affects crop production and may persist for several years. We applied known compaction forces to entire plots annually for 5 years, and then determined the duration of the adverse effects on the properties of a Vertisol and the performance of crops under no-till dryland cropping with residue retention. For up to 5 years after a final treatment with a 10 Mg axle load on wet soil, soil shear strength at 70-100 mm and cone index at 180-360 mm were significantly (P < 0.05) higher than in a control treatment, and soil water storage and grain yield were lower. We conclude that compaction effects persisted because (1) there were insufficient wet-dry cycles to swell and shrink the entire compacted layer, (2) soil loosening by tillage was absent and (3) there were fewer earthworms in the compacted soil. Compaction of dry soil with 6 Mg had little effect at any time, indicating that by using wheel traffic only when the soil is dry, problems can be avoided. Unfortunately such a restriction is not always possible because sowing, tillage and harvest operations often need to be done when the soil is wet. A more generally applicable solution, which also ensures timely operations, is the permanent separation of wheel zones and crop zones in the field--the practice known as controlled traffic farming. Where a compacted layer already exists, even on a clay soil, management options to hasten repair should be considered, e.g. tillage, deep ripping, sowing a ley pasture or sowing crop species more effective at repairing compacted soil.