Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest Virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia

BACKGROUND Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

A comparative study of the semi-elastic and fully-elastic MapReduce models

MapReduce is a computation model for processing large data sets in parallel on large clusters of machines, in a reliable, fault-tolerant manner. A MapReduce computation is broken down into a number of map tasks and reduce tasks, which are performed by so called mappers and reducers, respectively. The placement of the mappers and reducers on the machines directly affects the performance and cost of the MapReduce computation in cloud computing. From the computational point of view, the mappers/reducers placement problem is a generation of the classical bin packing problem, which is NP-complete. Thus, in this paper we propose a new heuristic algorithm for the mappers/reducers placement problem in cloud computing and evaluate it by comparing with other several heuristics on solution quality and computation time by solving a set of test problems with various characteristics. The computational results show that our heuristic algorithm is much more efficient than the other heuristics and it can obtain a better solution in a reasonable time. Furthermore, we verify the effectiveness of our heuristic algorithm by comparing the mapper/reducer placement for a benchmark problem generated by our heuristic algorithm with a conventional mapper/reducer placement which puts a fixed number of mapper/reducer on each machine. The comparison results show that the computation using our mapper/reducer placement is much cheaper than the computation using the conventional placement while still satisfying the computation deadline.

Discussion of : constructing summary statistics for approximate Bayesian computation: semi-automatic approximate Bayesian computation

This is a discussion of the journal article: "Construcing summary statistics for approximate Bayesian computation: semi-automatic approximate Bayesian computation". The article and discussion have appeared in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology).

Visible and near infrared spectroscopy of hayabusa reentry using semi-autonomous tracking

Aground-based tracking camera and coaligned slitless spectrograph were used to measure the spectral signature of visible radiation emitted from the Hayabusa capsule as it entered into the Earth’s atmosphere in June 2010. Good quality spectra were obtained, which showed the presence of radiation from the heat shield of the vehicle and the shock-heated air in front of the vehicle. An analysis of the blackbody nature of the radiation concluded that the peak average temperature of the surface was about (3100± 100)K. Line spectra from oxygen and nitrogen atoms were used to infer a peak average shock-heated gas temperature of around((7000±400))K.

Demonstration of nonlinear absorption in Au semi-continuous film by electrical measurement

We have demonstrated the nonlinear absorption at 532 nm wavelength in an Au semi-continuous film (SF) resulting from smearing of the Fermi distribution and diffusion of conduction electrons into the substrate. The Au SF was irradiated by a pulsed laser with 8 ns pulse width at 532 nm in near resonance with the interband transition of the Au. We determined the temperature increase in the SF for different intensities by electrical measurement. We calculated the temperature increase by using a 1D heat transport equation; comparing the results of the calculation with measured values for the temperature increase, revealed the nonlinear absorption in the Au SF. We employed this deviation from linear behaviour to determine the nonlinear absorption coefficient.

Reversible and semi-blind relational database watermarking

Database watermarking has received significant research attention in the current decade. Although, almost all watermarking models have been either irreversible (the original relation cannot be restored from the watermarked relation) and/or non-blind (requiring original relation to detect the watermark in watermarked relation). This model has several disadvantages over reversible and blind watermarking (requiring only watermarked relation and secret key from which the watermark is detected and original relation is restored) including inability to identify rightful owner in case of successful secondary watermarking, inability to revert the relation to original data set (required in high precision industries) and requirement to store unmarked relation at a secure secondary storage. To overcome these problems, we propose a watermarking scheme that is reversible as well as blind. We utilize difference expansion on integers to achieve reversibility. The major advantages provided by our scheme are reversibility to high quality original data set, rightful owner identification, resistance against secondary watermarking attacks, and no need to store original database at a secure secondary storage.

'Not a Local Win': Rural Australian perceptions of the sustainable impacts of forest plantations

Australian forestry plantations have doubled in the past 15 years, with rural communities harbouring a diverse range of positive and negative of economic, environmental and social impacts – the so-called triple bottom line (TBL). Utilising two Australian rural communities in Eden/Gippsland and Tasmania as qualitative case studies, this research explores how 23 non-forestry affiliated rural residents perceived and experienced the TBL economic, environmental and social impacts of plantation forestry. Residents criticised the economic plantation forestry benefits because of lengthy periods of inactivity and limited local employment, explaining that their community was reliant on the industry yet the promised economic benefits had never fully materialised. There was a sense the industry ‘plant and walk away.’ Residents were concerned about the environment impact on water quality, water tables and fire hazards, although they praised plantation forestry for carbon sequestering, eradicating erosion and water run-off. Negative social impacts were described, specifically how the land-use change from farming to forestry had significantly reduced the local population, employment and need for services. Natural resource management and communication strategies are offered, derived from non-forestry affiliated rural resident perspectives on how best to ensure sustainable forest development in their community.

Biolistic transformation of elite indica rice (Oryza sativa L.) cultivars through semi-solid and liquid medium selection systems

Following microprojectile mediated delivery of a plasmid construct (pAHC-25) encoding bar (bialophos resistance) gene into five-day-old scutellar calli derived from mature embryos, the effectiveness of selection procedure for bar-gene expressing tissue was compared for two indica rice cultivars (IR-64 and Karnal Local). While IR-64 transformants could be selected through the generally used semi-solid selection medium, the same procedure was not effective in the basmati cultivar Karnal Local. In the latter case, while lower concentrations (2–4 mg 1−1) of the selective agent phosphinothricin (PPT) yielded only escapes, higher concentrations (6–8 mg l−1) inhibited proliferation of transformed as well as untransformed sectors. For Karnal Local, a liquid medium based selection system was successfully utilized for recovering transformed sectors and, eventually, regenerants. The study demonstrates the generation of transformants of two elite indica cultivars using the environment-independent system of mature embryos from seeds.

Spatial analysis of risk factors for transmission of the Barmah forest virus in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is the second most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia but few data are available on the risk factors. We assessed the impact of spatial climatic, socioeconomic and ecological factors on the transmission of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia, using spatial regression. All our analyses indicate that spatial lag models provide a superior fit to the data compared to spatial error and ordinary least square models. The residuals of the spatial lag models were found to be uncorrelated, indicating that the models adequately account for spatial and temporal autocorrelation. Our results revealed that minimum temperature, distance from coast and low tide were negatively and rainfall was positively associated with BFV disease in coastal areas, whereas minimum temperature and high tide were negatively and rainfall was positively associated with BFV disease (all P-value.

Forest reflections

Interactive art installation Artist in Residence Queensland Government grant. Awarded June 2011 for period July-September 2011. This project involved co-creating an interactive artwork on site and in the forest with Grovely Primary school children aged 6-10, some with high needs. Affiliated with the United Nations International Year of the Forest. Final work is tangible, real-time visualization created using participatory design methods.

Adaptive estimation of hidden semi-Markov chains with parameterised transition probabilities and exponential decaying states

This paper develops maximum likelihood (ML) estimation schemes for finite-state semi-Markov chains in white Gaussian noise. We assume that the semi-Markov chain is characterised by transition probabilities of known parametric from with unknown parameters. We reformulate this hidden semi-Markov model (HSM) problem in the scalar case as a two-vector homogeneous hidden Markov model (HMM) problem in which the state consist of the signal augmented by the time to last transition. With this reformulation we apply the expectation Maximumisation (EM ) algorithm to obtain ML estimates of the transition probabilities parameters, Markov state levels and noise variance. To demonstrate our proposed schemes, motivated by neuro-biological applications, we use a damped sinusoidal parameterised function for the transition probabilities.

Understanding Uncertainties in Non-Linear Population Trajectories: A Bayesian Semi-Parametric Hierarchical Approach to Large-Scale Surveys of Coral Cover

Recently, attempts to improve decision making in species management have focussed on uncertainties associated with modelling temporal fluctuations in populations. Reducing model uncertainty is challenging; while larger samples improve estimation of species trajectories and reduce statistical errors, they typically amplify variability in observed trajectories. In particular, traditional modelling approaches aimed at estimating population trajectories usually do not account well for nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with multi-scale observations characteristic of large spatio-temporal surveys. We present a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model for simultaneously quantifying uncertainties associated with model structure and parameters, and scale-specific variability over time. We estimate uncertainty across a four-tiered spatial hierarchy of coral cover from the Great Barrier Reef. Coral variability is well described; however, our results show that, in the absence of additional model specifications, conclusions regarding coral trajectories become highly uncertain when considering multiple reefs, suggesting that management should focus more at the scale of individual reefs. The approach presented facilitates the description and estimation of population trajectories and associated uncertainties when variability cannot be attributed to specific causes and origins. We argue that our model can unlock value contained in large-scale datasets, provide guidance for understanding sources of uncertainty, and support better informed decision making

Flammability and thermal properties of novel semi aromatic polyamide/organoclay nanocomposite

The development of semi aromatic polyamide/organoclays nanocomposites (PANC) is reported in this communication. New polyamide (PA) was successfully synthesized through direct polycondensation reaction between bio-based diacid and aromatic diamine. PA exhibited strong UV vis absorption band at 412 nm. Its photoluminescence spectrum showed maximum band at 511 nm in the green region. The surface modification of montmorillonite was carried out through ion-exchange reaction using 1,4-bis[4-aminophenoxy]butane (APB) as a modifier. Then PANCs containing 3 and 6 wt.% of the modified montmorillonite (MMT-APB) were prepared. Flammability and thermal properties of PA and the nanocomposites were studied by microscale combustion calorimeter (MCC), thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). TGA results in both air and nitrogen atmospheres indicated improving in thermal properties of PANCs compared to the neat PA. According to MCC analysis, a 31.6% reduction in pHRR value has been achieved by introducing 6 wt.% of the organoclay in PA matrix.

Sex-specific roost selection by bats in clearfell harvested plantation forest : improved knowledge advises management

To maximize energetic savings, female bats often roost communally whilst pregnant or with non-volant dependents, whereas male bats more often roost alone; however, differences in selection of roosts by sex have not often been investigated. Better understanding of female colony locations could focus management to protect the majority of bats. New Zealand's long-tailed bat (Chalinolobus tuberculatus) roost in exotic plantation forest, where sex-specific roost selection has not been investigated, and therefore such management is not possible. We investigated sex-specific roost selection by long-tailed bats for the first time. Roosts and paired nonroosts were characterized testing predictions that males and females select roosts that differ from non-roosts, and males and females select different roosts. Females and males chose Pinus radiata roosts that differed from non-roost trees. Results suggest each sex chose roosts that maximized energetic savings. Female bats used roosts closer to water sources, that warmed earlier in the day, which allowed maintenance of high temperatures. Males appeared to choose roosts that allowed torpor use for long periods of the day. Males may be less selective with their roost locations than females, as they roosted further from water sources. This could allow persistence of male bats in marginal habitat. As all female long-tailed bats chose roosts within 150 m of waterways, management to protect bats could be focused here. To protect bats least able to escape when roosts are harvested, harvest of forest stands selected by female bats as roost sites should be planned when bats are not heavily pregnant nor have non-volant dependents.

Bat colony size reduction coincides with clear-fell harvest operations and high rates of roost loss in plantation forest

Clear-fell harvest of forest concerns many wildlife biologists because of loss of vital resources such as roosts or nests, and effects on population viability. However, actual impact has not been quantified. Using New Zealand long-tailed bats (Chalinolobus tuberculatus) as a model species we investigated impacts of clear-fell logging on bats in plantation forest. C. tuberculatus roost within the oldest stands in plantation forest so it was likely roost availability would decrease as harvest operations occurred. We predicted that post-harvest: (1) roosting range sizes would be smaller, (2) fewer roosts would be used, and (3) colony size would be smaller. We captured and radiotracked C. tuberculatus to day-roosts in Kinleith Forest, an exotic plantation forest, over three southern hemisphere summers (Season 1 October 2006–March 2007; Season 2 November 2007–March 2008; and Season 3 November 2008–March 2009). Individual roosting ranges (100% MCPs) post harvest were smaller than those in areas that had not been harvested, and declined in area during the 3 years. Following harvest, bats used fewer roosts than those in areas that had not been harvested. Over 3 years 20.7% of known roosts were lost: 14.5% due to forestry operations and 6.2% due to natural tree fall. Median colony size was 4.0 bats (IQR = 2.0–8.0) and declined during the study, probably because of locally high levels of roost loss. Post harvest colonies were smaller than colonies in areas that had not been harvested. Together, these results suggest the impact of clear-fell harvest on long-tailed bat populations is negative.