Contribution of 30 Biomarkers to 10-year cardiovascular risk estimation in 2 population cohorts: The MONICA, risk, genetics, archiving and monograph (MORGAM) biomarker project

Background— Cardiovascular risk estimation by novel biomarkers needs assessment in disease-free population cohorts, followed up for incident cardiovascular events, assaying the serum and plasma archived at baseline. We report results from 2 cohorts in such a continuing study.
Methods and Results— Thirty novel biomarkers from different pathophysiological pathways were evaluated in 7915 men and women of the FINRISK97 population cohort with 538 incident cardiovascular events at 10 years (fatal or nonfatal coronary or stroke events), from which a biomarker score was developed and then validated in the 2551 men of the Belfast Prospective Epidemiological Study of Myocardial Infarction (PRIME) cohort (260 events). No single biomarker consistently improved risk estimation in FINRISK97 men and FINRISK97 women and the Belfast PRIME Men cohort after allowing for confounding factors; however, the strongest associations (with hazard ratio per SD in FINRISK97 men) were found for N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (1.23), C-reactive protein (1.23), B-type natriuretic peptide (1.19), and sensitive troponin I (1.18). A biomarker score was developed from the FINRISK97 cohort with the use of regression coefficients and lasso methods, with selection of troponin I, C-reactive protein, and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide. Adding this score to a conventional risk factor model in the Belfast PRIME Men cohort validated it by improved c-statistics (P=0.004) and integrated discrimination (P<0.0001) and led to significant reclassification of individuals into risk categories (P=0.0008).
Conclusions— The addition of a biomarker score including N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, C-reactive protein, and sensitive troponin I to a conventional risk model improved 10-year risk estimation for cardiovascular events in 2 middle-aged European populations. Further validation is needed in other populations and age groups.

Sleep complaints and risk factors for excessive daytime sleepiness in adult males in Northern Ireland

The prevalence of sleep complaints in Northern Ireland is unknown. Sleep disruption can result in excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS), with significant socioeconomic consequences. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of sleep complaints and to determine risk factors for EDS in a Northern Irish community. From an urban and rural community of 499 111 people, a random sample of 3391 adult men were sent a questionnaire by mail. Questions were asked regarding sleep, EDS and medical history. There were 2364 completed questionnaires returned (response rate 70%). The mean age of respondents was 46.0 years (range 18-91 years). 26.7% of men were not satisfied with their usual night's sleep and 68% of men woke up at least once during the night. Based on pre-defined criteria, 24.6% of the population had insomnia and 19.8% had EDS. The strongest risk factor identified for EDS was a history of snoring loudly (odds ratio 2.62; 95% CI 1.82-3.77). Other risk factors included ankle swelling, feeling sad or depressed stopping sleep, experiencing vivid dreams while falling asleep, waking up feeling unrefreshed and age > 35 years. The prevalence rates of sleep complaints and EDS in this community-based study is high, although this does depend directly on the criteria used to define insomnia and EDS. Recognition of risk factors for EDS may help to identify and treat those affected.

Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A(2), inflammatory biomarkers, and risk of cardiovascular disease in the Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER)

Objective: Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A(2) (Lp-PLA(2)) is an inflammatory biomarker that circulates mainly bound to LDL. We evaluated the association of Lp-PLA(2) with vascular events in the elderly where the importance of LDL is diminished as a risk factor for coronary disease.

Have patients with esophagitis got an increased risk of adenocarcinoma?:Results from a population-based study

To examine an increased risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma is restricted to patients who develop Barrett's esophagus or whether esophagitis per se is a risk factor for adenocarcinoma.

Cigarette Smoking Increases Risk of Barrett’s Esophagus:An Analysis of the Barrett’s and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Consortium

Background & Aims: Cigarette smoking has been implicated in the etiology of esophageal adenocarcinoma, but it is not clear if smoking is a risk factor for Barrett's esophagus. We investigated whether tobacco smoking and other factors increase risk for Barrett's esophagus.

Methods: We analyzed data from 5 case-control studies included in the international Barrett's and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Consortium. We compared data from subjects with Barrett's esophagus (n = 1059) with those from subjects with gastroesophageal reflux disease (gastroesophageal reflux disease controls, n = 1332), and population-based controls (n = 1143), using multivariable logistic regression models to test associations with cigarette smoking. We also tested whether cigarette smoking has synergistic effects with other exposures, which might further increase risk for Barrett's esophagus.

Results: Subjects with Barrett's esophagus were significantly more likely to have ever smoked cigarettes than the population-based controls (odds ratio [OR] = 1.67; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.042.67) or gastroesophageal reflux disease controls (OR = 1.61; 95% CI: 1.331.96). Increasing pack-years of smoking increased the risk for Barrett's esophagus. There was evidence of a synergy between ever-smoking and heartburn or regurgitation; the attributable proportion of disease among individuals who ever smoked and had heartburn or regurgitation was estimated to be 0.39 (95% CI: 0.250.52).

Conclusions: Cigarette smoking is a risk factor for Barrett's esophagus. The association was strengthened with increased exposure to smoking until ~20 pack-years, when it began to plateau. Smoking has synergistic effects with heartburn or regurgitation, indicating that there are various pathways by which tobacco smoking might contribute to development of Barrett's esophagus.

Genetic variation in MME in relation to neprilysin protein and enzyme activity, Aβ levels, and Alzheimer's disease risk

Neprilysin (NEP), also known as membrane metalloendopeptidase (MME), is considered amongst the most important ß-amyloid (Aß)-degrading enzymes with regard to prevention of Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathology. Variation in the NEP gene (MME) has been suggested as a risk factor for AD. We conducted a genetic association study of 7MME SNPs - rs1836914, rs989692, rs9827586, rs6797911, rs61760379, rs3736187, rs701109 - with respect to AD risk in a cohort of 1057 probable and confirmed AD cases and 424 age-matched non-demented controls from the United Kingdom, Italy and Sweden. We also examined the association of these MME SNPs with NEP protein level and enzyme activity, and on biochemical measures of Aß accumulation in frontal cortex - levels of total soluble Aß, oligomeric Aß(1-42), and guanidine-extractable (insoluble) Aß - in a sub-group of AD and control cases with post-mortem brain tissue. On multivariate logistic regression analysis one of the MME variants (rs6797911) was associated with AD risk (P = 0.00052, Odds Ratio (O.R. = 1.40, 95% confidence interval (1.16-1.70)). None of the SNPs had any association with Aß levels; however, rs9827586 was significantly associated with NEP protein level (p=0.014) and enzyme activity (p=0.006). Association was also found between rs701109 and NEP protein level (p=0.026) and a marginally non-significant association was found for rs989692 (p=0.055). These data suggest that MME variation may be associated with AD risk but we have not found evidence that this is mediated through modification of NEP protein level or activity.

Risk factors for falls and injuries in a long-term care facility in Ontario

Objective: To identify risk factors for falls and injuries among seniors living in a long-term care facility. Method: Case-control study of 335 residents living at St. Joseph's Villa, Dundas, Ontario. Cases were defined as residents who fell between July 1, 1996 and June 30, 1997; controls were those who did not fall. To identify risk factors for injury, cases were defined as those with completed incident injury forms and controls as those without. Results: The most important risk factors for falls included: having fallen in the past three months; residing in a secured unit; living in the facility for two or more years; having the potential to cause injury to others; and having an illness, disease or behaviour that may cause a fall. The most important risk factor for injury among those who fell was altered mental state. Conclusion: The risk factors identified may be helpful to those planning falls prevention initiatives within long-term care settings.

Trends in coronary risk factors in the WHO MONICA Project

Background. The World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA Project was established to determine how trends in event rates for coronary heart disease (CHD) and, optionally, stroke were related to trends in classic coronary risk factors. Risk factors were therefore monitored over ten years across 38 populations from 21 countries in four continents (overall period covered: 1979-1996). Methods. A standard protocol was applied across participating centres, in at least two, and usually three, independent surveys conducted on random samples of the study populations, well separated within the 10-year study period. Results. Smoking rates decreased in most male populations (35-64 years) but in females the majority showed increases. Systolic blood pressure showed decreasing trends in the majority of centres in both sexes. Mean levels of cholesterol generally showed downward trends, which, although the changes were small, had large effects on risk. There was a trend of increasing body mass index (BMI) with half the female populations and two-thirds of the male populations showing a significant increase. Conclusions. It is feasible to monitor the classic CHD risk factors in diverse populations through repeated surveys over a decade. In general, the risk factor trends are downwards in most populations but in particular, an increase in smoking in women in many populations and increasing BMI, especially in men, are worrying findings with significant public health implications.

A prospective cohort study of obesity and risk of oesophageal and gastric adenocarcinoma in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study

Objective: The incidence of oesophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) has increased rapidly over the past 40 years and accumulating evidence suggests that obesity, as measured by body mass index (BMI), is a major risk factor. It remains unclear whether abdominal obesity is associated with EAC and gastric adenocarcinoma.

Design: Cox proportional hazards regression was used to examine associations between overall and abdominal obesity with EAC and gastric adenocarcinoma among 218 854 participants in the prospective NIHeAARP cohort.

Results: 253 incident EAC, 191 gastric cardia adenocarcinomas and 125 gastric non-cardia adenocarcinomas accrued to the cohort. Overall obesity (BMI) was positively associated with EAC and gastric
cardia adenocarcinoma risk (highest ($35 kg/m2) vs referent (18.5e<25 kg/m2); HR 2.11, 95% CI 1.09 to 4.09 and HR 3.67, 95% CI 2.00 to 6.71, respectively). Waist circumference was also positively associated with EAC and gastric cardia adenocarcinoma risk (highest vs referent; HR 2.01, 95% CI 1.35 to 3.00 and HR 2.22, 95% CI 1.43 to 3.47, respectively), whereas waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) was positively associated with EAC risk only (highest vs referent; HR 1.81, 95% CI 1.24 to 2.64) and persisted in patients with normal BMI (18.5e<25 kg/m2). Mutual adjustment of WHR and BMI attenuated
both, but did not eliminate the positive associations for either with risk of EAC. In contrast, the majority of the anthropometric variables were not associated with adenocarcinomas of the gastric non-cardia.

Conclusion Overall obesity was associated with a higher risk of EAC and gastric cardia adenocarcinoma, whereas abdominal obesity was found to be associated with increased EAC risk; even in people with normal BMI

Job strain and the risk of severe asthma exacerbations: A meta-analysis of individual-participant data from 100 000 European men and women

Background: Many patients and healthcare professionals believe that work-related psychosocial stress, such as job strain, can make asthma worse, but this is not corroborated by empirical evidence. We investigated the associations between job strain and the incidence of severe asthma exacerbations in working-age European men and women. Methods: We analysed individual-level data, collected between 1985 and 2010, from 102 175 working-age men and women in 11 prospective European studies. Job strain (a combination of high demands and low control at work) was self-reported at baseline. Incident severe asthma exacerbations were ascertained from national hospitalization and death registries. Associations between job strain and asthma exacerbations were modelled using Cox regression and the study-specific findings combined using random-effects meta-analyses. Results: During a median follow-up of 10 years, 1 109 individuals experienced a severe asthma exacerbation (430 with asthma as the primary diagnostic code). In the age- and sex-adjusted analyses, job strain was associated with an increased risk of severe asthma exacerbations defined using the primary diagnostic code (hazard ratio, HR: 1.27, 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.00, 1.61). This association attenuated towards the null after adjustment for potential confounders (HR: 1.22, 95% CI: 0.96, 1.55). No association was observed in the analyses with asthma defined using any diagnostic code (HR: 1.01, 95% CI: 0.86, 1.19). Conclusions: Our findings suggest that job strain is probably not an important risk factor for severe asthma exacerbations leading to hospitalization or death.

Fruit and vegetable intake and risk of cardiovascular disease

A high intake of fruit and vegetables (FV) has been shown to be associated with reduced risk of a number of chronic diseases, including CVD. This review aims to provide an overview of the evidence that increased FV intake reduces risk of CVD, focusing on studies examining total FV intake. This evidence so far available is largely based on prospective cohort studies, with meta-analyses demonstrating an association between increased FV intake and reduced risk of both CHD and stroke. Controlled intervention trials examining either clinical or cardiovascular risk factor endpoints are scarce. However, such trials have shown that an increase in FV consumption can lower blood pressure and also improve microvascular function, both of which are commensurate with a reduced risk of CVD. The effects of increased FV consumption on plasma lipid levels, risk of diabetes and body weight have yet to be firmly established. In conclusion, evidence that FV consumption reduces the risk of CVD is so far largely confined to observational epidemiology, with further intervention studies required.

Herd-level bovine tuberculosis risk factors: assessing the role of low-level badger population disturbance

Bovine TB (bTB) is endemic in Irish cattle and has eluded eradication despite considerable expenditure, amid debate over the relative roles of badgers and cattle in disease transmission. Using a comprehensive dataset from Northern Ireland (>10,000 km²; 29,513 cattle herds), we investigated interactions between host populations in one of the first large-scale risk factor analyses for new herd breakdowns to combine data on both species. Cattle risk factors (movements, international imports, bTB history, neighbours with bTB) were more strongly associated with herd risk than area-level measures of badger social group density, habitat suitability or persecution (sett disturbance). Highest risks were in areas of high badger social group density and high rates of persecution, potentially representing both responsive persecution of badgers in high cattle risk areas and effects of persecution on cattle bTB risk through badger social group disruption. Average badger persecution was associated with reduced cattle bTB risk (compared with high persecution areas), so persecution may contribute towards sustaining bTB hotspots; findings with important implications for existing and planned disease control programmes.

Long working hours and risk of coronary heart disease and stroke: a systematic review and meta-analysis of published and unpublished data for 603 838 individuals

Background: Long working hours might increase the risk of cardiovascular disease, but prospective evidence is scarce, imprecise, and mostly limited to coronary heart disease. We aimed to assess long working hours as a risk factor for incident coronary heart disease and stroke. 

Methods We identified published studies through a systematic review of PubMed and Embase from inception to Aug 20, 2014. We obtained unpublished data for 20 cohort studies from the Individual-Participant-Data Meta-analysis in Working Populations (IPD-Work) Consortium and open-access data archives. We used cumulative random-effects meta-analysis to combine effect estimates from published and unpublished data. 

Findings We included 25 studies from 24 cohorts in Europe, the USA, and Australia. The meta-analysis of coronary heart disease comprised data for 603 838 men and women who were free from coronary heart disease at baseline; the meta-analysis of stroke comprised data for 528 908 men and women who were free from stroke at baseline. Follow-up for coronary heart disease was 5·1 million person-years (mean 8·5 years), in which 4768 events were recorded, and for stroke was 3·8 million person-years (mean 7·2 years), in which 1722 events were recorded. In cumulative meta-analysis adjusted for age, sex, and socioeconomic status, compared with standard hours (35-40 h per week), working long hours (≥55 h per week) was associated with an increase in risk of incident coronary heart disease (relative risk [RR] 1·13, 95% CI 1·02-1·26; p=0·02) and incident stroke (1·33, 1·11-1·61; p=0·002). The excess risk of stroke remained unchanged in analyses that addressed reverse causation, multivariable adjustments for other risk factors, and different methods of stroke ascertainment (range of RR estimates 1·30-1·42). We recorded a dose-response association for stroke, with RR estimates of 1·10 (95% CI 0·94-1·28; p=0·24) for 41-48 working hours, 1·27 (1·03-1·56; p=0·03) for 49-54 working hours, and 1·33 (1·11-1·61; p=0·002) for 55 working hours or more per week compared with standard working hours (p_trend<0·0001).

Interpretation Employees who work long hours have a higher risk of stroke than those working standard hours; the association with coronary heart disease is weaker. These findings suggest that more attention should be paid to the management of vascular risk factors in individuals who work long hours. 

Exposure to children and risk of active trachoma in Tanzanian women

The authors surveyed the trachoma status of 515 women aged 18-60 years and 527 children aged 1-7 years in the trachoma hyperendemic region of Kongwa, Tanzania, in 1989 to further describe the importance of exposure to young children as a risk factor for active trachoma in women. The women were identified as caretakers, who currently cared for children aged 1-7 years; noncaretakers, who lived with, but did not care for, children aged 1-7; or those without children aged 1-7 in the household. The age-adjusted odds ratios for active trachoma seemed to rise with greater exposure to young children, from 1.00 for women without such children, to 1.63 for noncaretakers and 2.43 for caretakers (trend test, p = 0.08). Among those who lived in households with young children, the prevalence of active trachoma in women increased with the total number of young children cared for and with the number of infected children cared for. The prevalence of active trachoma was 40% (6 of 15) for caretakers of three or more infected children, compared with 0 (0 of 88) for caretakers with no infected children (p < 0.0001). Caring for infected children also appeared to be associated with signs of chronic trachoma in caretakers. Noncaretakers who lived with infected children were not at a significantly increased risk for trachoma compared with noncaretakers who were not exposed to such children (5.4% (three of 56) vs. 5.6% (one of 18); p > 0.4). None of the facial signs observed in the children (flies on the face, nasal discharge, etc.) appeared to increase the odds ratio of active trachoma in caretakers beyond the increase associated with trachoma alone in the child. These data support the hypothesis that active disease in women is associated with direct caretaking of young children with active disease. Strategies that interrupt household transmission may affect the binding sequelae of trachoma in women.

Quantification of the smoking-associated cancer risk with rate advancement periods: meta-analysis of individual participant data from cohorts of the CHANCES consortium

BACKGROUND: Smoking is the most important individual risk factor for many cancer sites but its association with breast and prostate cancer is not entirely clear. Rate advancement periods (RAPs) may enhance communication of smoking related risk to the general population. Thus, we estimated RAPs for the association of smoking exposure (smoking status, time since smoking cessation, smoking intensity, and duration) with total and site-specific (lung, breast, colorectal, prostate, gastric, head and neck, and pancreatic) cancer incidence and mortality.

METHODS: This is a meta-analysis of 19 population-based prospective cohort studies with individual participant data for 897,021 European and American adults. For each cohort we calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for the association of smoking exposure with cancer outcomes using Cox regression adjusted for a common set of the most important potential confounding variables. RAPs (in years) were calculated as the ratio of the logarithms of the HRs for a given smoking exposure variable and age. Meta-analyses were employed to summarize cohort-specific HRs and RAPs.

RESULTS: Overall, 140,205 subjects had a first incident cancer, and 53,164 died from cancer, during an average follow-up of 12 years. Current smoking advanced the overall risk of developing and dying from cancer by eight and ten years, respectively, compared with never smokers. The greatest advancements in cancer risk and mortality were seen for lung cancer and the least for breast cancer. Smoking cessation was statistically significantly associated with delays in the risk of cancer development and mortality compared with continued smoking.

CONCLUSIONS: This investigation shows that smoking, even among older adults, considerably advances, and cessation delays, the risk of developing and dying from cancer. These findings may be helpful in more effectively communicating the harmful effects of smoking and the beneficial effect of smoking cessation.