Statistical models for rainfall:characterisation and forecasting

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Improving a stocastic rainfall fporecasting model

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Rainfall variability in the upper Napo River Basin, Ecuadorian Amazon

The purpose of this research was to investigate the influence of elevation and other terrain characteristics over the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall. A comparative analysis was conducted between several methods of spatial interpolations using mean monthly precipitation values in order to select the best. Following those previous results it was possible to fit an Artificial Neural Network model for interpolation of monthly precipitation values for a period of 20 years, with input values such as longitude, latitude, elevation, four geomorphologic characteristics and anchored by seven weather stations, it reached a high correlation coefficient (r=0.85). This research demonstrated a strong influence of elevation and other geomorphologic variables over the spatial distribution of precipitation and the agreement that there are nonlinear relationships. This model will be used to fill gaps in time-series of monthly precipitation, and to generate maps of spatial distribution of monthly precipitation at a resolution of 1km2.

Leaf Functional Traits and Forest Structure of Tropical Dry Forest Species Along a Rainfall Gradient in Florida and Puerto Rico

This study examined how different rainfall regimes affect a set of leaf functional traits related to plant stress and forest structure in tropical dry forest (TDF) species on limestone substrate. One hundred fifty eight individuals of four tree species were sampled in six ecological sites in south Florida and Puerto Rico, ranging in mean annual rainfall from 858 to 1933 mm yr-1. Leaf nitrogen content, specific leaf area (SLA), and N:P ratio of evergreen species, but not deciduous species, responded positively to increasing rainfall. Phosphorus content was unaffected in both groups. Canopy height and basal area reached maxima of 10.3 m and 31.4 m2 ha-1, respectively, at 1168 mm annual rainfall. Leaf traits reflected soil properties only to a small extent. This led us to the conclusion that water is a major limiting factor in TDF and some species that comprise TDF ecosystems are limited by nitrogen in limestone sites with less than ~1012 mm rainfall, but organismal, biological and/or abiotic forces other than rainfall control forest structure in moister sites.

Using high resolution tracer data to constrain water storage, flux and age estimates in a spatially distributed rainfall-runoff model

Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank Jonathan Dick, Josie Geris, Jason Lessels, and Claire Tunaley for data collection and Audrey Innes for lab sample preparation. We also thank Christian Birkel for discussions about the model structure and comments on an earlier draft of the paper. Climatic data were provided by Iain Malcolm and Marine Scotland Fisheries at the Freshwater Lab, Pitlochry. Additional precipitation data were provided by the UK Meteorological Office and the British Atmospheric Data Centre (BADC).We thank the European Research Council ERC (project GA 335910 VEWA) for funding the VeWa project.

Estimate of the (R)USLE rainfall erosivity factor from monthly precipitation data in mainland Spain

The need for continuous recording rain gauges makes it difficult to determine the rainfall erosivity factor (R-factor) of the (R)USLE model in areas without good temporal data coverage. In mainland Spain, the Nature Conservation Institute (ICONA) determined the R-factor at few selected pluviographs, so simple estimates of the R-factor are definitely of great interest. The objectives of this study were: (1) to identify a readily available estimate of the R-factor for mainland Spain; (2) to discuss the applicability of a single (global) estimate based on analysis of regional results; (3) to evaluate the effect of record length on estimate precision and accuracy; and (4) to validate an available regression model developed by ICONA. Four estimators based on monthly precipitation were computed at 74 rainfall stations throughout mainland Spain. The regression analysis conducted at a global level clearly showed that modified Fournier index (MFI) ranked first among all assessed indexes. Applicability of this preliminary global model across mainland Spain was evaluated by analyzing regression results obtained at a regional level. It was found that three contiguous regions of eastern Spain (Catalonia, Valencian Community and Murcia) could have a different rainfall erosivity pattern, so a new regression analysis was conducted by dividing mainland Spain into two areas: Eastern Spain and plateau-lowland area. A comparative analysis concluded that the bi-areal regression model based on MFI for a 10-year record length provided a simple, precise and accurate estimate of the R-factor in mainland Spain. Finally, validation of the regression model proposed by ICONA showed that R-ICONA index overpredicted the R-factor by approximately 19%.

Rainfall infiltration and soil hydrological characteristics below ancient forest, planted forest and grassland in a temperate northern climate

How rainfall infiltration rate and soil hydrological characteristics develop over time under forests of different ages in temperate regions is poorly understood. In this study, infiltration rate and soil hydrological characteristics were investigated under forests of different ages and under grassland. Soil hydraulic characteristics were measured at different scales under a 250-year-old grazed grassland (GL), 6-year-old (6yr) and 48-year-old (48yr) Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) plantations, remnant 300-year-old individual Scots pine (OT) and a 4000-year-old Caledonian Forest (AF). In situ field-saturated hydraulic conductivity (Kfs) was measured, and visible root:soil area was estimated from soil pits. Macroporosity, pore structure and macropore connectivity were estimated from X-ray tomography of soil cores, and from water-release characteristics. At all scales, the median values for Kfs, root fraction, macroporosity and connectivity values tended to AF>OT>48yr>GL>6yr, indicating that infiltration rates and water storage increased with forest age. The remnant Caledonian Forest had a huge range of Kfs (12 to >4922mmh-1), with maximum Kfs values 7 to 15 times larger than those of 48-year-old Scots pine plantation, suggesting that undisturbed old forests, with high rainfall and minimal evapotranspiration in winter, may act as important areas for water storage and sinks for storm rainfall to infiltrate and transport to deeper soil layers via preferential flow. The importance of the development of soil hydrological characteristics under different aged forests is discussed.

Comparing fixed and flexible stocking as adaptations to inter-annual rainfall variability in the extensive beef industry of northern Australia

Many beef producers within the extensive cattle industry of northern Australia attempt to maintain a constant herd size from year-to-year (fixed stocking), whereas others adjust stock numbers to varying degrees annually in response to changes in forage supply. The effects of these strategies on pasture condition and cattle productivity cannot easily be assessed by grazing trials. Simulation studies, which include feedbacks of changes to pasture condition on cattle liveweight gain, can extend the results of grazing trials both spatially and temporally. They can compare a large number of strategies, over long periods of time, for a range of climate periods, at locations which differ markedly in climate. This simulation study compared the pasture condition and cattle productivity achieved by fixed stocking at the long-term carrying capacity with that of 55 flexible stocking strategies at 28 locations across Queensland and the Northern Territory. Flexible stocking strategies differed markedly in the degree they increased or decreased cattle stocking rates after good and poor pasture growing seasons, respectively. The 28 locations covered the full range in average annual rainfall and inter-annual rainfall variability experienced across northern Australia. Constrained flexibility, which limited increases in stocking rates after good growing seasons to 10% but decreased them by up to 20% after poor growing seasons, provides sustainable productivity gains for cattle producers in northern Australia. This strategy can improve pasture condition and increase cattle productivity relative to fixed stocking at the long-term carrying capacity, and its capacity to do this was greatest in the semiarid rangeland regions that contain the majority of beef cattle in northern Australia. More flexible stocking strategies, which also increased stocking rates after good growing seasons by only half as much as they decreased them after poor growing seasons, were equally sustainable and more productive than constrained flexibility, but are often impractical at property and industry scales. Strategies with the highest limits (e.g. 70%) for both annual increases and decreases in stocking rates could achieve higher cattle productivity, but this was at the expense of pasture condition and was not sustainable. Constrained flexible stocking, with a 10% limit for increases and a 20% limit for decreases in stocking rates annually, is a risk-averse adaptation to high and unpredictable rainfall variability for the extensive beef industry of northern Australia. © Australian Rangeland Society 2016.

Areal rainfall estimation using moving cars - computer experiments including hydrological modeling

The need for high temporal and spatial resolution precipitation data for hydrological analyses has been discussed in several studies. Although rain gauges provide valuable information, a very dense rain gauge network is costly. As a result, several new ideas have been emerged to help estimating areal rainfall with higher temporal and spatial resolution. Rabiei et al. (2013) observed that moving cars, called RainCars (RCs), can potentially be a new source of data for measuring rainfall amounts. The optical sensors used in that study are designed for operating the windscreen wipers and showed promising results for rainfall measurement purposes. Their measurement accuracy has been quantified in laboratory experiments. Considering explicitly those errors, the main objective of this study is to investigate the benefit of using RCs for estimating areal rainfall. For that, computer experiments are carried out, where radar rainfall is considered as the reference and the other sources of data, i.e. RCs and rain gauges, are extracted from radar data. Comparing the quality of areal rainfall estimation by RCs with rain gauges and reference data helps to investigate the benefit of the RCs. The value of this additional source of data is not only assessed for areal rainfall estimation performance, but also for use in hydrological modeling. The results show that the RCs considering measurement errors derived from laboratory experiments provide useful additional information for areal rainfall estimation as well as for hydrological modeling. Even assuming higher uncertainties for RCs as obtained from the laboratory up to a certain level is observed practical.

On the effect of Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly on the monsoon rainfall of south-east of Iran

Southeast region of the country has hot and dry weather which causes to happen heavy rainfall in short time period of warm seasons and to occur river flooding. These precipitations are influenced by monsoon system of India ocean. In these thesis, It was tried to evaluate the relation between thermal anomaly of sea surface in India ocean and Arab sea which effects on southeast monsoon precipitations of Iran, For evaluation of this happening in southeast, data were collected from 7 synoptic observation stations of Bandar Abbas, Minab, Kerman , Bam, Chabahar, Iranshahr, Zahedan and 17 rain gauge stations during June to September of each year from 1980 to 2010. Rainy days were determine and then some information about synoptic circulation models, maps of average pressure of sea surface, geopotential height of 700hP surface, geopotential height of 500hP surface, temperature of 850 hPa surface, humidity of 700 hPa surface, vertical velocity of 700 hPa surface, vertical velocity of 500 hP and humidity of 2 meters height for 6 systems were extracted from NCEP/NCAR website for evaluation. By evaluation of these systems it was determined that the monsoon low pressure system tab brings needed humidity of these precipitations to this region from India ocean and Arab sea with a vast circulation. It is seen that warm air pool locates on Iran and cold air pool locates on west of India at 800 hPa surface. In a rainy day this warm air transfers to high latitudes and influences the temperature trough of southeast cold air pool of the country. In the middle surfaces of 700 and 500 hPa, the connection between low height system above India and low height system above the higher latitudes causes the low height system above India to be strength and developed. By evaluation of humidity at 2 meters height and 700 hPa surface we observe that humidity Increases in the southeast region. With penetrating of the low height system of India above the 700 and 500 hPa surfaces of southeast of Iran, the value of negative omega (Rising vertical velocity) is increased. In the second pace, it was shown the evaluation of how the correlation between sea surface temperature anomaly in India Ocean and Arab sea influences southeast monsoon precipitation of Iran. For this purpose the data of water surface temperature anomaly of Arab sea and India ocean, the data of precipitation anomaly of 7 synoptic stations , mentioned above, and correlation coefficient among the data of precipitation anomaly and water surface temperature anomaly of Arab Sea, east and west of India ocean were calculated. In conclusion it was shown that the maximum correlation coefficient of precipitation anomaly had belonged to India Ocean in June and no meaningful correlation was resulted in July among precipitation anomaly and sea surface temperature anomaly for three regions, which were evaluated.