Individual agency as explanation of alliance development and change : a case study

Alliances, with other inter-organisational forms, have become a strategy of choice and necessity for both the private and public sectors. From initial formation, alliances develop and change in different ways, with research suggesting that many alliances will be terminated without their potential value being realised. Alliance process theorists address this phenomenon, seeking explanations as to why alliances unfold the way they do. However, these explanations have generally focussed on economic and structural determinants: empirically, little is known about how and why the agency of alliance actors shapes the alliance path. Theorists have suggested that current alliance process theory has provided valuable, but partial accounts of alliance development, which could be usefully extended by considering social and individual factors. The purpose of this research therefore was to extend alliance process theory by exploring individual agency as an explanation of alliance events and in doing so, reveal the potential of a multi-frame approach for understanding alliance process. Through an historical study of a single, rich case of alliance process, this thesis provided three explanations for the sequence of alliance events, each informed by a different theoretical perspective. The explanatory contribution of the Individual Agency (IA) perspective was distilled through juxtaposition with the perspectives of Environmental Determinism (ED) and Indeterminacy/Chance (I/C). The research produced a number of findings. First, it provided empirical support for the tentative proposition that the choices and practices of alliance actors are partially explanatory of alliance change and that these practices are particular to the alliance context. Secondly, the study found that examining the case through three theoretical frames provided a more complete explanation. Two propositions were put forward as to how individual agency can be theorised within this three-perspective framework. Finally, the case explained which alliance actors were required to shape alliance decision making in this case and why.

Challenging the distal-to-proximal cannulation technique for administration of anti-cancer therapies : a prospective cohort study

Background: Distal-to-proximal technique has been recommended for anti-cancer therapy administration. There is no evidence to suggest that a 24-hour delay of treatment is necessary for patients with a previous uncomplicated venous puncture proximal to the administration site. Objectives: This study aims to identify if the practice of 24-hour delay between a venous puncture and subsequent cannulation for anti-cancer therapies at a distal site is necessary for preventing extravasation. Methods: A prospective cohort study was conducted with 72 outpatients receiving anti-cancer therapy via an administration site distal to at least one previous uncomplicated venous puncture on the same arm in a tertiary cancer centre in Australia. Participants were interviewed and assessed at baseline data before treatment and on day 7 for incidence of extravasation/phlebitis. Results: Of 72 participants with 99 occasions of treatment, there was one incident of infiltration (possible extravasation) at the venous puncture site proximal to the administration site and two incidents of phlebitis at the administration site. Conclusions: A 24 hour delay is unnecessary if an alternative vein can be accessed for anti-cancer therapy after a proximal venous puncture. Implications for practice: Extravasation can occur at a venous puncture site proximal to an administration site in the same vein. However, the nurse can administer anti-cancer therapy at a distal site if the nurse can confidently determine the vein of choice is not in any way connected to the previous puncture site through visual inspection and palpation.

A mathematical model for genetic regulation of the lactose operon

In this paper we construct a mathematical model for the genetic regulatory network of the lactose operon. This mathematical model contains transcription and translation of the lactose permease (LacY) and a reporter gene GFP. The probability of transcription of LacY is determined by 14 binding states out of all 50 possible binding states of the lactose operon based on the quasi-steady-state assumption for the binding reactions, while we calculate the probability of transcription for the reporter gene GFP based on 5 binding states out of 19 possible binding states because the binding site O2 is missing for this reporter gene. We have tested different mechanisms for the transport of thio-methylgalactoside (TMG) and the effect of different Hill coefficients on the simulated LacY expression levels. Using this mathematical model we have realized one of the experimental results with different LacY concentrations, which are induced by different concentrations of TMG.

Planning of distribution networks for medium voltage and low voltage

Determination of the placement and rating of transformers and feeders are the main objective of the basic distribution network planning. The bus voltage and the feeder current are two constraints which should be maintained within their standard range. The distribution network planning is hardened when the planning area is located far from the sources of power generation and the infrastructure. This is mainly as a consequence of the voltage drop, line loss and system reliability. Long distance to supply loads causes a significant amount of voltage drop across the distribution lines. Capacitors and Voltage Regulators (VRs) can be installed to decrease the voltage drop. This long distance also increases the probability of occurrence of a failure. This high probability leads the network reliability to be low. Cross-Connections (CC) and Distributed Generators (DGs) are devices which can be employed for improving system reliability. Another main factor which should be considered in planning of distribution networks (in both rural and urban areas) is load growth. For supporting this factor, transformers and feeders are conventionally upgraded which applies a large cost. Installation of DGs and capacitors in a distribution network can alleviate this issue while the other benefits are gained. In this research, a comprehensive planning is presented for the distribution networks. Since the distribution network is composed of low and medium voltage networks, both are included in this procedure. However, the main focus of this research is on the medium voltage network planning. The main objective is to minimize the investment cost, the line loss, and the reliability indices for a study timeframe and to support load growth. The investment cost is related to the distribution network elements such as the transformers, feeders, capacitors, VRs, CCs, and DGs. The voltage drop and the feeder current as the constraints are maintained within their standard range. In addition to minimizing the reliability and line loss costs, the planned network should support a continual growth of loads, which is an essential concern in planning distribution networks. In this thesis, a novel segmentation-based strategy is proposed for including this factor. Using this strategy, the computation time is significantly reduced compared with the exhaustive search method as the accuracy is still acceptable. In addition to being applicable for considering the load growth, this strategy is appropriate for inclusion of practical load characteristic (dynamic), as demonstrated in this thesis. The allocation and sizing problem has a discrete nature with several local minima. This highlights the importance of selecting a proper optimization method. Modified discrete particle swarm optimization as a heuristic method is introduced in this research to solve this complex planning problem. Discrete nonlinear programming and genetic algorithm as an analytical and a heuristic method respectively are also applied to this problem to evaluate the proposed optimization method.

The acute adaptations of normal and pathological human Achilles tendons to eccentric and concentric exercise

Eccentric exercise is the conservative treatment of choice for mid-portion Achilles tendinopathy. While there is a growing body of evidence supporting the medium to long term efficacy of eccentric exercise in Achilles tendinopathy treatment, very few studies have investigated the short term response of the tendon to eccentric exercise. Moreover, the mechanisms through which tendinopathy symptom resolution occurs remain to be established. The primary purpose of this thesis was to investigate the acute adaptations of the Achilles tendon to, and the biomechanical characteristics of, the eccentric exercise protocol used for Achilles tendinopathy rehabilitation and a concentric equivalent. The research was conducted with an orientation towards exploring potential mechanisms through which eccentric exercise may bring about a resolution of tendinopathy symptoms. Specifically, the morphology of tendinopathic and normal Achilles tendons was monitored using high resolution sonography prior to and following eccentric and concentric exercise, to facilitate comparison between the treatment of choice and a similar alternative. To date, the only proposed mechanism through which eccentric exercise is thought to result in symptom resolution is the increased variability in motor output force observed during eccentric exercise. This thesis expanded upon prior work by investigating the variability in motor output force recorded during eccentric and concentric exercises, when performed at two different knee joint angles, by limbs with and without symptomatic tendinopathy. The methodological phase of the research focused on establishing the reliability of measures of tendon thickness, tendon echogenicity, electromyography (EMG) of the Triceps Surae and the standard deviation (SD) and power spectral density (PSD) of the vertical ground reaction force (VGRF). These analyses facilitated comparison between the error in the measurements and experimental differences identified as statistically significant, so that the importance and meaning of the experimental differences could be established. One potential limitation of monitoring the morphological response of the Achilles tendon to exercise loading is that the Achilles tendon is continually exposed to additional loading as participants complete the walking required to carry out their necessary daily tasks. The specific purpose of the last experiment in the methodological phase was to evaluate the effect of incidental walking activity on Achilles tendon morphology. The results of this study indicated that walking activity could decrease Achilles tendon thickness (negative diametral strain) and that the decrease in thickness was dependent on both the amount of walking completed and the proximity of walking activity to the sonographic examination. Thus, incidental walking activity was identified as a potentially confounding factor for future experiments which endeavoured to monitor changes in tendon thickness with exercise loading. In the experimental phase of this thesis the thickness of Achilles tendons was monitored prior to and following isolated eccentric and concentric exercise. The initial pilot study demonstrated that eccentric exercise resulted in a greater acute decrease in Achilles tendon thickness (greater diametral strain) compared to an equivalent concentric exercise, in participants with no history of Achilles tendon pain. This experiment was then expanded to incorporate participants with unilateral Achilles tendinopathy. The major finding of this experiment was that the acute decrease in Achilles tendon thickness observed following eccentric exercise was modified by the presence of tendinopathy, with a smaller decrease (less diametral strain) noted for tendinopathic compared to healthy control tendon. Based on in vitro evidence a decrease in tendon thickness is believed to reflect extrusion of fluid from the tendon with loading. This process would appear to be limited by the presence of pathology and is hypothesised to be a result of the changes in tendon structure associated with tendinopathy. Load induced fluid movement may be important to the maintenance of tendon homeostasis and structure as it has the potential to enhance molecular movement and stimulate tendon remodelling. On this basis eccentric exercise may be more beneficial to the tendon than concentric exercise. Finally, EMG and motor output force variability (SD and PSD of VGRF) were investigated while participants with and without tendinopathy performed the eccentric and concentric exercises. Although between condition differences were identified as statistically significant for a number of force variability parameters, the differences were not greater than the limits of agreement for repeated measures. Consequently the meaning and importance of these findings were questioned. Interestingly, the EMG amplitude of all three Triceps Surae muscles did not vary with knee joint angle during the performance of eccentric exercise. This raises questions pertaining to the functional importance of performing the eccentric exercise protocol at each of the two knee joint angles as it is currently prescribed. EMG amplitude was significantly greater during concentric compared to eccentric muscle actions. Differences in the muscle activation patterns may result in different stress distributions within the tendon and be related to the different diametral strain responses observed for eccentric and concentric muscle actions.

An approximate Bayesian computation approach for estimating parameters of complex environmental processes in a cellular automata

Modelling an environmental process involves creating a model structure and parameterising the model with appropriate values to accurately represent the process. Determining accurate parameter values for environmental systems can be challenging. Existing methods for parameter estimation typically make assumptions regarding the form of the Likelihood, and will often ignore any uncertainty around estimated values. This can be problematic, however, particularly in complex problems where Likelihoods may be intractable. In this paper we demonstrate an Approximate Bayesian Computational method for the estimation of parameters of a stochastic CA. We use as an example a CA constructed to simulate a range expansion such as might occur after a biological invasion, making parameter estimates using only count data such as could be gathered from field observations. We demonstrate ABC is a highly useful method for parameter estimation, with accurate estimates of parameters that are important for the management of invasive species such as the intrinsic rate of increase and the point in a landscape where a species has invaded. We also show that the method is capable of estimating the probability of long distance dispersal, a characteristic of biological invasions that is very influential in determining spread rates but has until now proved difficult to estimate accurately.

Using Bayesian methods for the estimation of uncertainty in complex statistical models

The research objectives of this thesis were to contribute to Bayesian statistical methodology by contributing to risk assessment statistical methodology, and to spatial and spatio-temporal methodology, by modelling error structures using complex hierarchical models. Specifically, I hoped to consider two applied areas, and use these applications as a springboard for developing new statistical methods as well as undertaking analyses which might give answers to particular applied questions. Thus, this thesis considers a series of models, firstly in the context of risk assessments for recycled water, and secondly in the context of water usage by crops. The research objective was to model error structures using hierarchical models in two problems, namely risk assessment analyses for wastewater, and secondly, in a four dimensional dataset, assessing differences between cropping systems over time and over three spatial dimensions. The aim was to use the simplicity and insight afforded by Bayesian networks to develop appropriate models for risk scenarios, and again to use Bayesian hierarchical models to explore the necessarily complex modelling of four dimensional agricultural data. The specific objectives of the research were to develop a method for the calculation of credible intervals for the point estimates of Bayesian networks; to develop a model structure to incorporate all the experimental uncertainty associated with various constants thereby allowing the calculation of more credible credible intervals for a risk assessment; to model a single day’s data from the agricultural dataset which satisfactorily captured the complexities of the data; to build a model for several days’ data, in order to consider how the full data might be modelled; and finally to build a model for the full four dimensional dataset and to consider the timevarying nature of the contrast of interest, having satisfactorily accounted for possible spatial and temporal autocorrelations. This work forms five papers, two of which have been published, with two submitted, and the final paper still in draft. The first two objectives were met by recasting the risk assessments as directed, acyclic graphs (DAGs). In the first case, we elicited uncertainty for the conditional probabilities needed by the Bayesian net, incorporated these into a corresponding DAG, and used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to find credible intervals, for all the scenarios and outcomes of interest. In the second case, we incorporated the experimental data underlying the risk assessment constants into the DAG, and also treated some of that data as needing to be modelled as an ‘errors-invariables’ problem [Fuller, 1987]. This illustrated a simple method for the incorporation of experimental error into risk assessments. In considering one day of the three-dimensional agricultural data, it became clear that geostatistical models or conditional autoregressive (CAR) models over the three dimensions were not the best way to approach the data. Instead CAR models are used with neighbours only in the same depth layer. This gave flexibility to the model, allowing both the spatially structured and non-structured variances to differ at all depths. We call this model the CAR layered model. Given the experimental design, the fixed part of the model could have been modelled as a set of means by treatment and by depth, but doing so allows little insight into how the treatment effects vary with depth. Hence, a number of essentially non-parametric approaches were taken to see the effects of depth on treatment, with the model of choice incorporating an errors-in-variables approach for depth in addition to a non-parametric smooth. The statistical contribution here was the introduction of the CAR layered model, the applied contribution the analysis of moisture over depth and estimation of the contrast of interest together with its credible intervals. These models were fitted using WinBUGS [Lunn et al., 2000]. The work in the fifth paper deals with the fact that with large datasets, the use of WinBUGS becomes more problematic because of its highly correlated term by term updating. In this work, we introduce a Gibbs sampler with block updating for the CAR layered model. The Gibbs sampler was implemented by Chris Strickland using pyMCMC [Strickland, 2010]. This framework is then used to consider five days data, and we show that moisture in the soil for all the various treatments reaches levels particular to each treatment at a depth of 200 cm and thereafter stays constant, albeit with increasing variances with depth. In an analysis across three spatial dimensions and across time, there are many interactions of time and the spatial dimensions to be considered. Hence, we chose to use a daily model and to repeat the analysis at all time points, effectively creating an interaction model of time by the daily model. Such an approach allows great flexibility. However, this approach does not allow insight into the way in which the parameter of interest varies over time. Hence, a two-stage approach was also used, with estimates from the first-stage being analysed as a set of time series. We see this spatio-temporal interaction model as being a useful approach to data measured across three spatial dimensions and time, since it does not assume additivity of the random spatial or temporal effects.

An investigation of commuter exposure to ultrafine particles in Sydney

Commuting in various transport modes represents an activity likely to incur significant exposure to traffic emissions. This study investigated the determinants and characteristics of exposure to ultrafine (< 100 nm) particles (UFPs) in four transport modes in Sydney, with a specific focus on exposure in automobiles, which remain the transport mode of choice for approximately 70% of Sydney commuters. UFP concentrations were measured using a portable condensation particle counter (CPC) inside five automobiles commuting on above ground and tunnel roadways, and in buses, ferries and trains. Determinant factors investigated included wind speed, cabin ventilation (automobiles only) and traffic volume. The results showed that concentrations varied significantly as a consequence of transport mode, vehicle type and ventilation characteristics. The effects of wind speed were minimal relative to those of traffic volume (especially heavy diesel vehicles) and cabin ventilation, with the latter proving to be a strong determinant of UFP ingress into automobiles. The effect of ~70 minutes of commuting on total daily exposure was estimated using a range of UFP concentrations reported for several microenvironments. A hypothetical Sydney resident commuting by automobile and spending 8.5 minutes of their day in the M5 East tunnel could incur anywhere from a lower limit of 3-11% to an upper limit of 37-69% of daily UFP exposure during a return commute, depending on the concentrations they encountered in other microenvironments, the type of vehicle they used and the ventilation setting selected. However, commute-time exposures at either extreme of the values presented are unlikely to occur in practice. The range of exposures estimated for other transport modes were comparable to those of automobiles, and in the case of buses, higher than automobiles.

A Bayesian approach for estimating detection times in horses : exploring the pharmacokinetics of a urinary acepromazine metabolite

We describe the population pharmacokinetics of an acepromazine (ACP) metabolite (2-(1-hydroxyethyl)promazine) (HEPS) in horses for the estimation of likely detection times in plasma and urine. Acepromazine (30 mg) was administered to 12 horses, and blood and urine samples were taken at frequent intervals for chemical analysis. A Bayesian hierarchical model was fitted to describe concentration-time data and cumulative urine amounts for HEPS. The metabolite HEPS was modelled separately from the parent ACP as the half-life of the parent was considerably less than that of the metabolite. The clearance ($Cl/F_{PM}$) and volume of distribution ($V/F_{PM}$), scaled by the fraction of parent converted to metabolite, were estimated as 769 L/h and 6874 L, respectively. For a typical horse in the study, after receiving 30 mg of ACP, the upper limit of the detection time was 35 hours in plasma and 100 hours in urine, assuming an arbitrary limit of detection of 1 $\mu$g/L, and a small ($\approx 0.01$) probability of detection. The model derived allowed the probability of detection to be estimated at the population level. This analysis was conducted on data collected from only 12 horses, but we assume that this is representative of the wider population.

Where do they come from? Prevalence and characteristics of nascent entrepreneurs

This paper reports on a unique study of a large, random sample of business start-ups that were identified prior to the actual, commercial launch of the ventures. The purpose of this paper is two-fold. First, to present frequencies on the involvement of the Swedish population in the small business sector (particularly in start-ups of firms) and to compare these with estimates from Norway and the USA, which are based on studies using a similar research design. The authors also discuss the possible reasons for the differences that emerge between countries. Second, the characteristics of nascent entrepreneurs (i.e. individuals trying to start an independent business) are analysed and compared for sub-groups within the sample and with characteristics of business founders as they appear in theoretical accounts or retrospective empirical studies of surviving all firms. In order to get a representative sample from the working age population, respondents (n = 30,427) were randomly selected and interviewed by telephone. It was found that 2.0% of the Swedish population at the time of the interview were trying to start an independent business. Sweden had a significantly lower prevalence rate of nascent entrepreneurs compared to Norway and the USA. Nascent entrepreneurs were then compared to a control group of people not trying to start a business. The results confirmed findings from previous studies of business founders pointing to the importance of role models and the impression of self-employment obtained through these, employment status, age, education and experience. Marital status, the number of children in the household, and length of employment experience were unrelated to the probability of becoming a nascent entrepreneur. The gender of the respondent was the strongest distinguishing factor. Importantly, the results suggest that while one has a reasonably good understanding of the characteristics associated with men going into business for themselves, the type of variables investigated here have very limited ability to predict nascent entrepreneur status for women.

The impact of computers on physical and psychological health: Strategies for staying in the "zone".

At a time when distance learning and flexible delivery of university courses are increasing, spending long hours on computers, working from home or in the laboratory, raises some unique problems for students. The paper presents a theoretical framework for first year students which helps to explain the developmental process that many students find themselves going through during their transitional phase at university. It will introduce the concept taken from sports psychology of "staying in the zone of peak academic performance" in order to accomplish the task of obtaining a degree whilst at the same time ensuring physical and psychological health. Strategies used by therapists to assist students to continue successfully in their course of choice and to achieve desirable outcomes will be discussed.

Monte Carlo simulations of dynamic radiotherapy treatments

The effects of tumour motion during radiation therapy delivery have been widely investigated. Motion effects have become increasingly important with the introduction of dynamic radiotherapy delivery modalities such as enhanced dynamic wedges (EDWs) and intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) where a dynamically collimated radiation beam is delivered to the moving target, resulting in dose blurring and interplay effects which are a consequence of the combined tumor and beam motion. Prior to this work, reported studies on the EDW based interplay effects have been restricted to the use of experimental methods for assessing single-field non-fractionated treatments. In this work, the interplay effects have been investigated for EDW treatments. Single and multiple field treatments have been studied using experimental and Monte Carlo (MC) methods. Initially this work experimentally studies interplay effects for single-field non-fractionated EDW treatments, using radiation dosimetry systems placed on a sinusoidaly moving platform. A number of wedge angles (60º, 45º and 15º), field sizes (20 × 20, 10 × 10 and 5 × 5 cm2), amplitudes (10-40 mm in step of 10 mm) and periods (2 s, 3 s, 4.5 s and 6 s) of tumor motion are analysed (using gamma analysis) for parallel and perpendicular motions (where the tumor and jaw motions are either parallel or perpendicular to each other). For parallel motion it was found that both the amplitude and period of tumor motion affect the interplay, this becomes more prominent where the collimator tumor speeds become identical. For perpendicular motion the amplitude of tumor motion is the dominant factor where as varying the period of tumor motion has no observable effect on the dose distribution. The wedge angle results suggest that the use of a large wedge angle generates greater dose variation for both parallel and perpendicular motions. The use of small field size with a large tumor motion results in the loss of wedged dose distribution for both parallel and perpendicular motion. From these single field measurements a motion amplitude and period have been identified which show the poorest agreement between the target motion and dynamic delivery and these are used as the „worst case motion parameters.. The experimental work is then extended to multiple-field fractionated treatments. Here a number of pre-existing, multiple–field, wedged lung plans are delivered to the radiation dosimetry systems, employing the worst case motion parameters. Moreover a four field EDW lung plan (using a 4D CT data set) is delivered to the IMRT quality control phantom with dummy tumor insert over four fractions using the worst case parameters i.e. 40 mm amplitude and 6 s period values. The analysis of the film doses using gamma analysis at 3%-3mm indicate the non averaging of the interplay effects for this particular study with a gamma pass rate of 49%. To enable Monte Carlo modelling of the problem, the DYNJAWS component module (CM) of the BEAMnrc user code is validated and automated. DYNJAWS has been recently introduced to model the dynamic wedges. DYNJAWS is therefore commissioned for 6 MV and 10 MV photon energies. It is shown that this CM can accurately model the EDWs for a number of wedge angles and field sizes. The dynamic and step and shoot modes of the CM are compared for their accuracy in modelling the EDW. It is shown that dynamic mode is more accurate. An automation of the DYNJAWS specific input file has been carried out. This file specifies the probability of selection of a subfield and the respective jaw coordinates. This automation simplifies the generation of the BEAMnrc input files for DYNJAWS. The DYNJAWS commissioned model is then used to study multiple field EDW treatments using MC methods. The 4D CT data of an IMRT phantom with the dummy tumor is used to produce a set of Monte Carlo simulation phantoms, onto which the delivery of single field and multiple field EDW treatments is simulated. A number of static and motion multiple field EDW plans have been simulated. The comparison of dose volume histograms (DVHs) and gamma volume histograms (GVHs) for four field EDW treatments (where the collimator and patient motion is in the same direction) using small (15º) and large wedge angles (60º) indicates a greater mismatch between the static and motion cases for the large wedge angle. Finally, to use gel dosimetry as a validation tool, a new technique called the „zero-scan method. is developed for reading the gel dosimeters with x-ray computed tomography (CT). It has been shown that multiple scans of a gel dosimeter (in this case 360 scans) can be used to reconstruct a zero scan image. This zero scan image has a similar precision to an image obtained by averaging the CT images, without the additional dose delivered by the CT scans. In this investigation the interplay effects have been studied for single and multiple field fractionated EDW treatments using experimental and Monte Carlo methods. For using the Monte Carlo methods the DYNJAWS component module of the BEAMnrc code has been validated and automated and further used to study the interplay for multiple field EDW treatments. Zero-scan method, a new gel dosimetry readout technique has been developed for reading the gel images using x-ray CT without losing the precision and accuracy.

Statistical analysis of conflict involvements in port water navigation

With increasing rate of shipping traffic, the risk of collisions in busy and congested port waters is likely to rise. However, due to low collision frequencies in port waters, it is difficult to analyze such risk in a sound statistical manner. A convenient approach of investigating navigational collision risk is the application of the traffic conflict techniques, which have potential to overcome the difficulty of obtaining statistical soundness. This study aims at examining port water conflicts in order to understand the characteristics of collision risk with regard to vessels involved, conflict locations, traffic and kinematic conditions. A hierarchical binomial logit model, which considers the potential correlations between observation-units, i.e., vessels, involved in the same conflicts, is employed to evaluate the association of explanatory variables with conflict severity levels. Results show higher likelihood of serious conflicts for vessels of small gross tonnage or small overall length. The probability of serious conflict also increases at locations where vessels have more varied headings, such as traffic intersections and anchorages; becoming more critical at night time. Findings from this research should assist both navigators operating in port waters as well as port authorities overseeing navigational management.

Politicians : Be killed or survive

In the course of history, a large number of politicians have been assassinated. To investigate this phenomenon, rational choice hypotheses are developed and tested using a large data set covering close to 100 countries over a period of 20 years. Several strategies, in addition to security measures, are shown to significantly reduce the probability of politicians being attacked or killed: extended institutional and governance quality, democracy, voice and accountability, a well-functioning system of law and order, decentralization via the division of power and federalism, larger cabinet size and a stronger civil society. There is also support for a contagion effect.

Analyzing the factors influencing the successful design and uptake of interactive systems to support social networks in urban neighborhoods

In urban residential environments in Australia and other developed countries, Internet access is on the verge of becoming a ubiquitous utility like gas or electricity. From an urban sociology and community informatics perspective, this article discusses new emerging social formations of urban residents that are based on networked individualism and the potential of Internet-based systems to support them. It proposes that one of the main reasons for the disappearance or nonexistence of urban residential communities is a lack of appropriate opportunities and instruments to encourage and support local interaction in urban neighborhoods. The article challenges the view that a mere reappropriation of applications used to support dispersed virtual communities is adequate to meet the place and proximity-based design requirements that community networks in urban neighborhoods pose. It argues that the key factors influencing the successful design and uptake of interactive systems to support social networks in urban neighborhoods include the swarming social behavior of urban dwellers; the dynamics of their existing communicative ecology; and the serendipitous, voluntary, and place-based quality of interaction between residents on the basis of choice, like-mindedness, mutual interest and support needs. Drawing on an analysis of these factors, the conceptual design framework of a prototype system — the urban tribe incubator — is presented.