Price forecasting in the day-ahead Iberian electricity market using a conjectural variations Arima model

Price forecast is a matter of concern for all participants in electricity markets, from suppliers to consumers through policy makers, which are interested in the accurate forecast of day-ahead electricity prices either for better decisions making or for an improved evaluation of the effectiveness of market rules and structure. This paper describes a methodology to forecast market prices in an electricity market using an ARIMA model applied to the conjectural variations of the firms acting in an electricity market. This methodology is applied to the Iberian electricity market to forecast market prices in the 24 hours of a working day. The methodology was then compared with two other methodologies, one called naive and the other a direct forecast of market prices using also an ARIMA model. Results show that the conjectural variations price forecast performs better than the naive and that it performs slightly better than the direct price forecast.

Scheduling of a hydro producer considering head-dependency, price scenarios and risk-aversion

In this paper, a mixed-integer quadratic programming approach is proposed for the short-term hydro scheduling problem, considering head-dependency, discontinuous operating regions and discharge ramping constraints. As new contributions to earlier studies, market uncertainty is introduced in the model via price scenarios, and risk aversion is also incorporated by limiting the volatility of the expected profit through the conditional value-at-risk. Our approach has been applied successfully to solve a case Study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems, requiring a negligible computational time.

Desirable role in a price-setting international mixed duopoly

In this paper, we study the order of moves in a mixed international duopoly for differentiated goods, where firms choose whether to set prices sequentially or simultaneously. We discuss the desirable role of the public firm by comparing welfare among three games. We find that, in the three possible roles, the domestic public firm put a lower price, and then produces more than the foreign private firm.

A importância do planeamento e orçamentação nas empreitadas de obras de instalações mecânicas

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica

Chlamydospore formation by Paracoccidioides brasiliensis mycelial form

To investigate the role of some adverse environmental conditions in chlamy-dospore formation by the mycelial form of P. brasiliensis, we cultured four P. brasiliensis isolates (18, Bt4, 1183, Pb9) at 25°C within solid agar medium either rich or poor in nutrients. Isolates 18 and 1183 were also cultured under anaerobiosis in a nitrogen atmosphere. Isolate 18 produced great number of terminal and intercalary chlamydospore after 7-10 days of culture in a medium poor in nutrients (2% agar with 0.1% dextrose and polypepton). The three other isolates also produced chlamydospores under the same conditions, but in lower numbers. Chlamydospore production by isolate 18 was abolished when the fungus was cultured in two agar media rich in nutrients (brain heart infusion and potato dextrose agar). Anaerobic incubation of isolate 18 under an atmosphere of N2 showed small mycelial outgrowth with numerous chlamydospores. At the electron microscopical level, the chlamydospores showed one or various nuclei and numerous mitochondria, indicating great potential for further development. Accordingly, chlamydospores produced multiple budding after only 24 h incubation at 35°C. The results demonstrate that under adverse environmental conditions P. brasiliensis mycelial form produces chlamydospores within a short period of time.

Numerical Method to Predict Void Formation during The Liquid Composite Molding Process

Void formation during the injection phase of the liquid composite molding process can be explained as a consequence of the non-uniformity of the flow front progression. This is due to the dual porosity within the fiber perform (spacing between the fiber tows is much larger than between the fibers within in a tow) and therefore the best explanation can be provided by a mesolevel analysis, where the characteristic dimension is given by the fiber tow diameter of the order of millimeters. In mesolevel analysis, liquid impregnation along two different scales; inside fiber tows and within the open spaces between the fiber tows must be considered and the coupling between the flow regimes must be addressed. In such cases, it is extremely important to account correctly for the surface tension effects, which can be modeled as capillary pressure applied at the flow front. Numerical implementation of such boundary conditions leads to illposing of the problem, in terms of the weak classical as well as stabilized formulation. As a consequence, there is an error in mass conservation accumulated especially along the free flow front. A numerical procedure was formulated and is implemented in an existing Free Boundary Program to reduce this error significantly.

Une vision systémique de la formation continue universitaire

Res-Systemica, Volume N°5, Numéro Spécial

Evolution of Iberia during the Cenozoic with special emphasis on the formation of the Betic Cordillera and its relation with the western Mediterranean

The extensional process affecting Iberia during the Triassic and Jurassic times change from the end of the Cretaceous and, throughout the Palaeocene, the displacement between the African and European plates was clearly convergent and part of the future Internal Zone of the Betic Cordillera was affected. To the west, the Atlantic continued to open as a passive margin and, to the north, no significant deformation occurred. During the Eocene, the entire Iberian plate was subjected to compression. which caused major deformations in the Pyrenees and also in the Alpujarride and Nevado-Filabride, Internal Betic, complexes. In the Oligocene continued this situation, but in addition, the new extensional process ocurring in the western Mediterranean area, together with the constant eastward drift of Iberia due to Atlantic opening, compressed the eastern sector of Iberia, giving rise to the structuring of the Iberian Cordillera. The Neogene was the time when the Betic Cordillera reached its fundamental features with the westward displacement of the Betic-Rif Internal Zone, expelled by the progressive opening of the Algerian Basin, opening prolonged till the Alboran Sea. From the late Miocene onwards, all Iberia was affected by a N-S to NNW-SSE compression, combined in many points by a near perpendicular extension. Specially in eastern and southern Iberia a radial extension superposed these compression and extension.

High-resolution correlation of coastal cliff sections in the Lagos- Portimao Formation (Lower - Middle Miocene, central Algarve, Portugal)

This paper describes a high-resolution stratigraphic correlation scheme for the early to middle Miocene Lagos-Portimão Formation of central Algarve, southern Portugal. The Lagos Portimão-Formation of central Algarve is a 60 m thick package of horizontally bedded siliciclastics and carbonates. The bryozoan and mollusc dominated biofacies is typical of a shallow marine, warm-temperate climatic environment. We define four stratigraphic marker beds based on biofacies, lithology, and gamma-ray signatures. Marker bed 1 is a reddish shell bed composed predominantly of bivalve shells in various stages of fragmentation. Marker bed 2 is a fossiliferous sandstone / sandy rudstone characterized by bryozoan masses. Marker bed 3 is also a fossiliferous sandstone with abundant larger foraminifers and foliate bryozoans. Marker bed 4 is composed of three distinct layers; two fossiliferous sandstones with an intercalated shell bed. The upper sandstone unit displays thickets of the bryozoan Celleporaria palmate associated with the coral Culizia parasitica. This stratigraphic framework allows to correlate isolated outcrops within the stratigraphic context of the Lagos-Portimão Formation and to establish high resolution chronostratigraphic Sr-isotopic dating.

Palynologic data from Aquitaine (SW France) Middle Miocene Sables Fauves Formation. Climatic evolution

Climatic reconstructions based on palynological data from Aquitaine outcrops emphasize an important degradation phase during the Lower Serravallian. Climatic and environmental changes can be related to sea-level variations (Bur 5 / Lan 1, Lan 2 / Ser 1 and Ser 2 cycles). Transgressive phases feature warmer conditions and more open environments whereas regressive phases are marked by a cooler climate and an extent of the forest cover. From Langhian to Middle Serravallian, a general cooling is highlighted, with disappearance of most megathermic taxa and a transition from warm and dry climate to warm-temperate and much more humid conditions. Conclusions are consistent with studies on bordering areas and place the major degradation phase around 14 My. The palynologic data allow filling a gap in the climatic evolution of Southern France, as a connection between Lower and Upper Miocene, both well recorded. These results document, on Western Europe scale, latitudinal climatic gradient across Northern hemisphere while featuring a transition between Mediterranean area and northeastern Atlantic frontage.

Employment of the side product of biodiesel production in the formation of surfactant like molecules

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Química e Bioquímica

Schistosomiasis: predisposing cause for the formation of hepatic abscesses? Case report

An adult patient with chronic schistosomiasis from an endemic area, complained about a seven day fever, along with jaundice and lumbar backache on the right side. Image exams showed multiple pyogenic liver abscesses. All the classic etiologies were discarded through clinical, radiological and laboratorial criteria. Schistosomiasis can cause pylephlebitis as a complication, along with immunesuppression, granulomatous reaction with central lobular liver necrosis and a greater risk of infection. The authors suggest that schistosomiasis in its chronic form may be the predisposing cause of multiple pyogenic liver abscesses, especially in endemic areas.

Effects of hotel characteristics on room rates in Porto: a hedonic price approach

According to the hedonic price method, a price of a good is related with the characteristics or the services it provides. Within this framework, the aim of this study it is to examine the effect on room rates of different characteristics of hotels in and around the city of Porto, such as star category, size, room and service quality, hotel facilities and location. It was estimated a hedonic price function, using data for 51 hotels. The results enable to identify the attributes that are important to consumers and hoteliers and to which extent. This information can be used by hotel managers to define a price strategy and helpful in new investment decisions.

Demand Response Programs Definition Using Demand Price Elasticity to Define Consumers Aggregation for an Improved Remuneration Structure

The positioning of the consumers in the power systems operation has been changed in the recent years, namely due to the implementation of competitive electricity markets. Demand response is an opportunity for the consumers’ participation in electricity markets. Smart grids can give an important support for the integration of demand response. The methodology proposed in the present paper aims to create an improved demand response program definition and remuneration scheme for aggregated resources. The consumers are aggregated in a certain number of clusters, each one corresponding to a distinct demand response program, according to the economic impact of the resulting remuneration tariff. The knowledge about the consumers is obtained from its demand price elasticity values. The illustrative case study included in the paper is based on a 218 consumers’ scenario.

S100A6 Amyloid Fibril Formation Is Calcium-modulated and Enhances Superoxide Dismutase-1 (SOD1) Aggregation

S100A6 is a small EF-hand calcium- and zinc-binding protein involved in the regulation of cell proliferation and cytoskeletal dynamics. It is overexpressed in neurodegenerative disorders and a proposed marker for Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS). Following recent reports of amyloid formation by S100 proteins, we investigated the aggregation properties of S100A6. Computational analysis using aggregation predictors Waltz and Zyggregator revealed increased propensity within S100A6 helices HI and HIV. Subsequent analysis of Thioflavin-T binding kinetics under acidic conditions elicited a very fast process with no lag phase and extensive formation of aggregates and stacked fibrils as observed by electron microscopy. Ca2+ exerted an inhibitory effect on the aggregation kinetics, which could be reverted upon chelation. An FT-IR investigation of the early conformational changes occurring under these conditions showed that Ca2+ promotes anti-parallel β-sheet conformations that repress fibrillation. At pH 7, Ca2+ rendered the fibril formation kinetics slower: time-resolved imaging showed that fibril formation is highly suppressed, with aggregates forming instead. In the absence of metals an extensive network of fibrils is formed. S100A6 oligomers, but not fibrils, were found to be cytotoxic, decreasing cell viability by up to 40%. This effect was not observed when the aggregates were formed in the presence of Ca2+. Interestingly, native S1006 seeds SOD1 aggregation, shortening its nucleation process. This suggests a cross-talk between these two proteins involved in ALS. Overall, these results put forward novel roles for S100 proteins, whose metal-modulated aggregation propensity may be a key aspect in their physiology and function.