El Niño 2015/2016 impact analysis, monthly outlook November 2015

During the summer and autumn 2015, El Niño conditions in the east and central Pacific have strengthened, disrupting weather patterns throughout the tropics and into the mid-latitudes. For example, rainfall during this summer’s Indian monsoon was approximately 15% below normal. The continued strong El Niño conditions have the potential to trigger damaging impacts (e.g., droughts, famines, floods), particularly in less-developed tropical countries, which would require a swift and effective humanitarian response to mitigate damage to life and property (e.g., health, migration, infrastructure). This analysis uses key climatic variables (temperature, soil moisture and precipitation) as measures to monitor the ongoing risk of these potentially damaging impacts. The previous 2015-2016 El Niño Impact Analysis was based on observations over the past 35 years and produced Impact Tables showing the likelihood and severity of the impacts on temperature and rainfall by season. The current report is an extension of this work providing information from seasonal forecast models to give a more detailed monthly outlook of the potential near-term impacts of the current El Niño conditions by region. This information has been added to the Impact Tables in the form of a monthly outlook column. This monthly outlook is an indication of the average likely conditions for that month and region and is not a definite prediction of weather impacts.

El Niño 2015/2016 impact analysis, monthly outlook December 2015

During the summer and autumn 2015, El Niño conditions in the east and central Pacific have strengthened, disrupting weather patterns throughout the tropics and into the mid-latitudes. For example, rainfall during this summer’s Indian monsoon was approximately 15% below normal. The continued strong El Niño conditions have the potential to trigger damaging impacts (e.g. droughts, famines, floods), particularly in less-developed tropical countries, which would require a swift and effective humanitarian response to mitigate damage to life and property (e.g. health, migration, infrastructure). This analysis uses key climatic variables (temperature, soil moisture and precipitation) as measures to monitor the ongoing risk of these potentially damaging impacts. The previous 2015-2016 El Niño Impact Analysis was based on observations over the past 35 years and produced Impact Tables showing the likelihood and severity of the impacts on temperature and rainfall by season. The current report is an extension of this work providing information from observations and seasonal forecast models to give a more detailed outlook of the potential near-term impacts of the current El Niño conditions by region. This information has been added to the Impact Tables in the form of an ‘Observations and Outlook’ row. This consists of observational information for the past seasons of JJA 2015 and SON 2015, a detailed monthly outlook from 5 modeling centres for Dec 2015 and then longer-term seasonal forecast information from 2 modeling centres for the future seasons of JF 2016 and MAM 2016. The seasonal outlook information is an indication of the average likely conditions for that coming month (or season) and region and is not a definite prediction of weather impacts.

El Niño 2015/2016 impact analysis, monthly outlook January 2016

During the summer and autumn of 2015, El Niño conditions in the east and central Pacific have strengthened, disrupting weather patterns throughout the tropics and into the mid-latitudes. For example, rainfall during this summer’s Indian monsoon was approximately 15% below normal. The continued strong El Niño conditions have the potential to trigger damaging impacts (e.g., droughts, famines, floods), particularly in less-developed tropical countries, which would require a swift and effective humanitarian response to mitigate damage to life and property (e.g., health, migration, infrastructure). This analysis uses key climatic variables (temperature, soil moisture and precipitation) as measures to monitor the ongoing risk of these potentially damaging impacts. The previous 2015-2016 El Niño Impact Analysis was based on observations over the past 35 years and produced Impact Tables showing the likelihood and severity of the impacts on temperature and rainfall by season. The current report is an extension of this work providing information from observations and seasonal forecast models to give a more detailed outlook of the potential near-term impacts of the current El Niño conditions by region. This information has been added to the Impact Tables in the form of an ‘Observations and Outlook’ row. This consists of observational information for the past seasons of JJA 2015, SON 2015 and Dec 2015, a detailed monthly outlook from 4 modeling centres for Jan 2016 and then longer-term seasonal forecast information from 2 modeling centres for the future seasons of Feb 2016, MAM 2016 and Jun 2016. The seasonal outlook information is an indication of the average likely conditions for that coming month (or season) and region and is not a definite prediction of weather impacts.

El Niño 2015/2016 impact analysis, monthly outlook February 2016

During the summer and autumn of 2015, El Niño conditions in the east and central Pacific strengthened, disrupting weather patterns throughout the tropics and into the mid-latitudes. For example, rainfall during the summer’s Indian monsoon was approximately 15% below normal. The continued strong El Niño conditions have the potential to trigger damaging impacts (e.g., droughts, famines, floods), particularly in less-developed tropical countries, which would require a swift and effective humanitarian response to mitigate damage to life and property (e.g., health, migration, infrastructure). This analysis uses key climatic variables (temperature, soil moisture and precipitation) as measures to monitor the ongoing risk of these potentially damaging impacts. The previous 2015-2016 El Niño Impact Analysis was based on observations over the past 35 years and produced Impact Tables showing the likelihood and severity of the impacts on temperature and rainfall by season. The current report is an extension of this work, providing information from observations and seasonal forecast models to give a more detailed outlook of the potential near-term impacts of the current El Niño conditions by region. This information has been added to the Impact Tables in the form of an ‘Observations and Outlook’ row. This consists of observational information for the past seasons of JJA 2015, SON 2015 and DJ 2015/2016, a detailed monthly outlook from 5 modeling centres for Feb 2016 and then longer-term seasonal forecast information from 2 modeling centres for the future seasons of MAM 2016 and JJ 2016. The seasonal outlook information is an indication of the average likely conditions for that coming month (or season) and region and is not a definite prediction of weather impacts. This report has been produced by University of Reading for Evidence on Demand with the assistance of the UK Department for International Development (DFID) contracted through the Climate, Environment, Infrastructure and Livelihoods Professional Evidence and Applied Knowledge Services (CEIL PEAKS) programme, jointly managed by DAI (which incorporates HTSPE Limited) and IMC Worldwide Limited.

El Niño 2015/2016 impact analysis, monthly outlook March 2016

During the summer and autumn of 2015, El Niño conditions in the east and central Pacific strengthened, disrupting weather patterns throughout the tropics and into the mid-latitudes. For example, rainfall during the summer’s Indian monsoon was approximately 15% below normal. The continued strong El Niño conditions have the potential to trigger damaging impacts (e.g., droughts, famines, floods), particularly in less-developed tropical countries, which would require a swift and effective humanitarian response to mitigate damage to life and property (e.g., health, migration, infrastructure). This analysis uses key climatic variables (temperature, soil moisture and precipitation) as measures to monitor the ongoing risk of these potentially damaging impacts. The previous 2015-2016 El Niño Impact Analysis was based on observations over the past 35 years and produced Impact Tables showing the likelihood and severity of the impacts on temperature and rainfall by season. The current report is an extension of this work, providing information from observations and seasonal forecast models to give a more detailed outlook of the potential near-term impacts of the current El Niño conditions by region. This information has been added to the Impact Tables in the form of an ‘Observations and Outlook’ row. This consists of observational information for the past seasons of JJA 2015, SON 2015 and DJF 2015/2016, a detailed monthly outlook from 5 modeling centres for Mar 2016 and then longer-term seasonal forecast information from 2 modeling centres for the future seasons of AM 2016 and JJA 2016. The seasonal outlook information is an indication of the average likely conditions for that coming month (or season) and region and is not a definite prediction of weather impacts. This report has been produced by University of Reading for Evidence on Demand with the assistance of the UK Department for International Development (DFID) contracted through the Climate, Environment, Infrastructure and Livelihoods Professional Evidence and Applied Knowledge Services (CEIL PEAKS) programme, jointly managed by DAI (which incorporates HTSPE Limited) and IMC Worldwide Limited.

Analysis of cryptic, systemic Botrytis infections in symptomless hosts

Botrytis species are generally considered to be aggressive, necrotrophic plant pathogens. By contrast to this general perception, however, Botrytis species could frequently be isolated from the interior of multiple tissues in apparently healthy hosts of many species. Infection frequencies reached 50% of samples or more, but were commonly less, and cryptic infections were rare or absent in some plant species. Prevalence varied substantially from year to year and from tissue to tissue, but some host species routinely had high prevalence. The same genotype was found to occur throughout a host, representing mycelial spread. B. cinerea and B. pseudocinerea are the species that most commonly occur as cryptic infections, but phylogenetically distant isolates of Botrytis were also detected, one of which does not correspond to previously described species. Sporulation and visible damage occurred only when infected tissues were stressed, or became mature or senescent. There was no evidence of cryptic infection having a deleterious effect on growth of the host, and prevalence was probably greater in plants grown in high light conditions. Isolates from cryptic infections were often capable of causing disease (to varying extents) when spore suspensions were inoculated onto their own host as well as on distinct host species, arguing against co-adaptation between cryptic isolates and their hosts. These data collectively suggest that several Botrytis species, including the most notorious pathogenic species, exist frequently in cryptic form to an extent that has thus far largely been neglected, and do not need to cause disease on healthy hosts in order to complete their life-cycles.

Hypermethioninemia provokes oxidative damage and histological changes in liver of rats

In the present study we evaluated the effect of chronic methionine administration on oxidative stress and biochemical parameters in liver and serum of rats, respectively. We also performed histological analysis in liver. Results showed that hypermethioninemia increased chemiluminescence, carbonyl content and glutathione peroxidase activity, decreased total antioxidant potential, as well as altered catalase activity. Hypermethioninemia increased synthesis and concentration of glycogen, besides histological studies showed morphological alterations and reduction in the glycogen/glycoprotein content in liver. Serum alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, alkaline phosphatase and glucose were increased in hypermethioninemic rats. These findings suggest that oxidative damage and histological changes caused by methionine may be related to the hepatic injury observed in hypermethioninemia. (C) 2009 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Functional and morphologic evaluation of kidney proximal tubuli and correlation with renal allograft prognosis

P>Renal transplant patients with stable graft function and proximal tubular dysfunction (PTD) have an increased risk for chronic allograft nephropathy (CAN). In this study, we investigated the histologic pattern associated with PTD and its correlation with graft outcome. Forty-nine transplant patients with stable graft function were submitted to a biopsy. Simultaneously, urinary retinol-binding protein (uRBP) was measured and creatinine clearance was also determined. Banff`s score and semi-quantitative histologic analyses were performed to assess tubulointerstitial alterations. Patients were followed for 24.0 +/- 7.8 months. At biopsy time, mean serum creatinine was 1.43 +/- 0.33 mg/dl. Twelve patients (24.5%) had uRBP >= 1 mg/l, indicating PTD and 67% of biopsies had some degree of tubulointerstitial injury. At the end of the study period, 18 (36.7%) patients had lost renal function. uRBP levels were not associated with morphologic findings of interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy (IF/TA), interstitial fibrosis measured by Sirius red or tubulointerstitial damage. However, in multivariate analysis, the only variable associated with the loss of renal function was uRBP level >= 1 mg/l, determining a risk of 5.290 of loss of renal function (P = 0.003). Renal transplant patients who present PTD have functional alteration, which is not associated with morphologic alteration. This functional alteration is associated to progressive decrease in renal function.

Microbiological diversity of generalized aggressive periodontitis by 16S rRNA clonal analysis

Background/aim: The purpose of this study was to determine the bacterial diversity in the subgingival plaque of subjects with generalized aggressive periodontitis by using culture-independent molecular methods based on 16S ribosomal DNA cloning. Methods: Samples from 10 subjects with generalized aggressive periodontitis were selected. DNA was extracted and the 16S rRNA gene was amplified with the universal primer pairs 9F and 1525R. Amplified genes were cloned, sequenced, and identified by comparison with known 16S rRNA sequences. Results: One hundred and ten species were identified from 10 subjects and 1007 clones were sequenced. Of these, 70 species were most prevalent. Fifty-seven percent of the clone (40 taxa) sequences represented phylotypes for which no cultivated isolates have been reported. Several species of Selenomonas and Streptococcus were found at high prevalence and proportion in all subjects. Overall, 50% of the clone libraries were formed by these two genera. Selenomonas sputigena, the species most commonly detected, was found in nine of 10 subjects. Other species of Selenomonas were often present at high levels, including S. noxia, Selenomonas sp. EW084, Selenomonas sp. EW076, Selenomonas FT050, Selenomonas sp. P2PA_80, and Selenomonas sp. strain GAA14. The classical putative periodontal pathogens, such as, Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans, was below the limit of detection and was not detected. Conclusion: These data suggest that other species, notably species of Selenomonas, may be associated with disease in generalized aggressive periodontitis subjects.

On estimation and influence diagnostics for log-Birnbaum-Saunders Student-t regression models: Full Bayesian analysis

The purpose of this paper is to develop a Bayesian approach for log-Birnbaum-Saunders Student-t regression models under right-censored survival data. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used to develop a Bayesian procedure for the considered model. In order to attenuate the influence of the outlying observations on the parameter estimates, we present in this paper Birnbaum-Saunders models in which a Student-t distribution is assumed to explain the cumulative damage. Also, some discussions on the model selection to compare the fitted models are given and case deletion influence diagnostics are developed for the joint posterior distribution based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence. The developed procedures are illustrated with a real data set. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Study of DNA damage with a new system for irradiation of samples in a nuclear reactor

In this paper, we report results of a quantitative analysis of the effects of neutrons on DNA, and, specifically, the production of simple and double breaks of plasmid DNA in aqueous solutions with different concentrations of free-radical scavengers. The radiation damage to DNA was evaluated by electrophoresis through agarose gels. The neutron and gamma doses were measured separately with thermoluminescent detectors. In this work, we have also demonstrated usefulness of a new system for positioning and removing samples in channel BH#3 of the IEA-R1 reactor at the Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (Brazil) without necessity of interrupting the reactor operation. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Systematic structural studies of iron superoxide dismutases from human parasites and a statistical coupling analysis of metal binding specificity

Superoxide dismutases (SODs) are a crucial class of enzymes in the combat against intracellular free radical damage. They eliminate superoxide radicals by converting them into hydrogen peroxide and oxygen. In spite of their very different life cycles and infection strategies, the human parasites Plasmodium falciparum, Trypanosoma cruzi and Trypanosoma brucei are known to be sensitive to oxidative stress. Thus the parasite Fe-SODs have become attractive targets for novel drug development. Here we report the crystal structures of FeSODs from the trypanosomes T. brucei at 2.0 angstrom and T. cruzi at 1.9 angstrom resolution, and that from P. falciparum at a higher resolution (2.0 angstrom) to that previously reported. The homodimeric enzymes are compared to the related human MnSOD with particular attention to structural aspects which are relevant for drug design. Although the structures possess a very similar overall fold, differences between the enzymes at the entrance to the channel which leads to the active site could be identified. These lead to a slightly broader and more positively charged cavity in the parasite enzymes. Furthermore, a statistical coupling analysis (SCA) for the whole Fe/MnSOD family reveals different patterns of residue coupling for Mn and Fe SODs, as well as for the dimeric and tetrameric states. In both cases, the statistically coupled residues lie adjacent to the conserved core surrounding the metal center and may be expected to be responsible for its fine tuning, leading to metal ion specificity.

A semi-Markov multistate model for estimation of the mean quality-adjusted survival for non-progressive processes

We discuss the estimation of the expected value of the quality-adjusted survival, based on multistate models. We generalize an earlier work, considering the sojourn times in health states are not identically distributed, for a given vector of covariates. Approaches based on semiparametric and parametric (exponential and Weibull distributions) methodologies are considered. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimator and the jackknife resampling method is used to estimate the variance of such estimator. An application to a real data set is also included.

Molecular characterization of human polyomavirus JC in Brazilian AIDS patients with and without progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy

Background: JC virus (JCV), the causative agent of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML), is classified in 8 different genotypes. Previous reports have suggested a positive association between specific genotypes and PML. Objective: To compare genotypes and adaptive mutations of JCV strains from Brazilian AIDS patients with and without PML. Study design: The VP1 region of JCV was amplified by polymerase chain reaction from cerebrospinal fluid samples from 51 patients with PML and from urine samples of 47 patients with AIDS without central nervous system disease. Genotyping was done by phylogenetic analysis. Amino acid replacement and selection pressures were also investigated. Results: JCV genotype frequency distributions showed that genotypes 2 (32.7%), 1 (26.5%) and 3 (23.5%) were the most prevalent. Genotype 1 had a positive association (p < 0.0001) and genotype 3 showed an inverse association (p < 0.001) with PML. A previously undescribed point mutation at residue 91 (L/I or L/V) and (L/P), non-genotype-associated, was found in 5/49 (10.2%) and 2/47 (4.3%) JCV sequences from PML and non-PML patients, respectively. This mutation was under positive selection only in PML patients. A previously described substitution of T-A in position 128 showed a significant difference between PML and non-PML cases (70% versus 16%, respectively, p < 0.0005). Conclusion: In Brazilian patients with AIDS, JCV genotype 1 showed a strong association with PML (p < 0.0001) and JCV genotype 3 showed an inverse association with PML. The possible association of aminoacids substitution in residues 91 and 128 with PML in patients with AIDS must be further investigated. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Increased SOD1 association with chromatin, DNA damage, p53 activation, and apoptosis in a cellular model of SOD1-linked ALS

Mutations in the gene encoding cytosolic Cu,Zn-superoxide dismutase (SOD1) have been linked to familial amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (FALS). However the molecular mechanisms of motor neuron death are multifactorial and remain unclear. Here we examined DNA damage;p53 activity and apoptosis in SH-SY5Y human neuroblastoma cells transfected to achieve low-level expression of either wild-type or mutant Gly(93) --> Ala (G93A) SOD1, typical of FALS. DNA damage was investigated by evaluating the levels of 8-oxo-7,8-dihydro-2`-deoxyguanosine (8-oxodGuo) and DNA strand breaks. Significantly higher levels of DNA damage, increased p53 activity, and a greater percentage of apoptotic cells were observed in SH-SY5Y cells transfected with G93A SOD1 when compared to cells overexpressing wild-type SOD1 and untransfected cells. Western blot, FACS, and confocal microscopy analysis demonstrated that G93A SOD1 is present in the nucleus in association with DNA. Nuclear G93A SOD1 has identical superoxide dismutase activity but displays increased peroxidase activity when compared to wild-type SOD1. These results indicate that the G93A mutant SOD1 association with DNA might induce DNA damage and trigger the apoptotic response by activating p53. This toxic activity of mutant SOD1 in the nucleus may play an important role in the complex mechanisms associated with motor neuron death observed in ALS pathogenesis. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.