Speculative dynamics in the term structure of interest rates

When long maturity bonds are traded frequently and traders have non-nestedinformation sets, speculative behavior in the sense of Harrison and Kreps (1978) arises.Using a term structure model displaying such speculative behavior, this paper proposesa conceptually and observationally distinct new mechanism generating time varying predictableexcess returns. It is demonstrated that (i) dispersion of expectations about futureshort rates is sufficient for individual traders to systematically predict excess returns and(ii) the new term structure dynamics driven by speculative trade is orthogonal to publicinformation in real time, but (iii) can nevertheless be quantified using only publicly availableyield data. The model is estimated using monthly data on US short to medium termTreasuries from 1964 to 2007 and it provides a good fit of the data. Speculative dynamicsare found to be quantitatively important, potentially accounting for a substantial fractionof the variation of bond yields and appears to be more important at long maturities.

Composition of electricity generation portfolios, pivotal dynamics and market prices

We use a simulation model to study how the diversification of electricity generation portfoliosinfluences wholesale prices. We find that technological diversification generally leads to lower market prices but that the relationship is mediated by the supply to demand ratio. In each demand case there is a threshold where pivotal dynamics change. Pivotal dynamics pre- and post-threshold are the cause of non-linearities in the influence of diversification on market prices. The findings are robust to our choice of behavioural parameters and match close-form solutions where those are available.

State power and protected areas: Dynamics and contradictions of forest conservation in Madhya Pradesh, India

The traditionally coercive and state-controlled governance of protected areas for nature conservation in developing countries has in many cases undergone change in the context of widespread decentralization and liberalization. This article examines an emerging "mixed" (coercive, community- and market-oriented) conservation approach in managed-resource protected areas and its effects on state power through a case study on forest protection in the central Indian state of Madhya Pradesh. The findings suggest that imperfect decentralization and partial liberalization resulted in changed forms, rather than uniform loss, of state power. A forest co-management program paradoxically strengthened local capacity and influence of the Forest Department, which generally maintained its territorial and knowledge-based control over forests and timber management. Furthermore, deregulation and reregulation enabled the state to withdraw from uneconomic activities but also implied reduced place-based control of non-timber forest products. Generally, the new policies and programs contributed to the separation of livelihoods and forests in Madhya Pradesh. The article concludes that regulatory, community- and market-based initiatives would need to be better coordinated to lead to more effective nature conservation and positive livelihood outcomes.

Unified formalism for non-autonomous mechanical systems

We present a unified geometric framework for describing both the Lagrangian and Hamiltonian formalisms of regular and non-regular time-dependent mechanical systems, which is based on the approach of Skinner and Rusk (1983). The dynamical equations of motion and their compatibility and consistency are carefully studied, making clear that all the characteristics of the Lagrangian and the Hamiltonian formalisms are recovered in this formulation. As an example, it is studied a semidiscretization of the nonlinear wave equation proving the applicability of the proposed formalism.

Immune responses to airborne fungi and non-invasive airway diseases.

Inhalation of fungal particles is a ubiquitous way of exposure to microorganisms during human life; however, this exposure may promote or exacerbate respiratory diseases only in particular exposure conditions and human genetic background. Depending on the fungal species and form, fungal particles can induce symptoms in the lung by acting as irritants, aeroallergens or pathogens causing infection. Some thermophilic species can even act in all these three ways (e.g. Aspergillus, Penicillium), mesophilic species being only involved in allergic and/or non-allergic airway diseases (e.g. Cladosporium, Alternaria, Fusarium). The goal of the present review is to present the current knowledge on the interaction between airborne fungal particles and the host immune system, to illustrate the differences of immune sensing of different fungal species and to emphasise the importance of conducting research on non-conventional mesophilic fungal species. Indeed, the diversity of fungal species we inhale and the complexity of their composition have a direct impact on fungal particle recognition and immune system decision to tolerate or respond to those particles, eventually leading to collateral damages promoting airway pathologies.

Flux and composition of settling particles across the continental margin of the Gulf of Lion: the role of dense shelf water cascading

Settling particles were collected using sediment traps deployed along three transects in the Lacaze-Duthiers and Cap de Creus canyons and the adjacent southern open slope from October 2005 to October 2006. The settling material was analyzed to obtain total mass fluxes and main constituent contents (organic matter, opal, calcium carbonate, and siliciclastics). Cascades of dense shelf water from the continental shelf edge to the lower continental slope occurred from January to March 2006. They were traced through strong negative near-bottom temperature anomalies and increased current speeds, and generated two intense pulses of mass fluxes in January and March 2006. This oceanographic phenomenon appeared as the major physical forcing of settling particles at almost all stations, and caused both high seasonal variability in mass fluxes and important qualitative changes in settling material. Fluxes during the dense shelf water cascading (DSWC) event ranged from 90.1 g m(-2) d(-1) at the middle Cap de Creus canyon (1000 m) to 3.2 g m(-2) d(-1) at the canyon mouth (1900 m). Fractions of organic matter, opal and calcium carbonate components increased seaward, thus diminishing the siliciclastic fraction. Temporal variability of the major components was larger in the canyon mouth and open slope sites, due to the mixed impact of dense shelf water cascading processes and the pelagic biological production. Results indicate that the cascading event remobilized and homogenized large amounts of material down canyon and southwardly along the continental slope contributing to a better understanding of the off-shelf particle transport and the internal dynamics of DSWC events.

Phosphatase activity in sandy soil influenced by mycorrhizal and non-mycorrhizal cover crops

Cover crops may difffer in the way they affect rhizosphere microbiota nutrient dynamics. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of mycorrhizal and non-mycorrhizal cover crops on soil phosphatase activity and its persistence in subsequent crops. A three-year experiment was carried out with a Typic Quartzipsamment. Treatments were winter species, either mycorrhizal black oat (Avena strigosa Schreb) or the non-mycorrhizal species oilseed radish (Raphanus sativus L. var. oleiferus Metzg) and corn spurry (Spergula arvensis L.). The control treatment consisted of resident vegetation (fallow in the winter season). In the summer, a mixture of pearl millet (Pennisetum americanum L.) with sunnhemp (Crotalaria juncea L.) or with soybean (Glycine max L.) was sown in all plots. Soil cores (0-10 cm) and root samples were collected in six growing seasons (winter and summer of each year). Microbial biomass P was determined by the fumigation-extraction method and phosphatase activity using p-nitrophenyl-phosphate as enzyme substrate. During the flowering stage of the winter cover crops, acid phosphatase activity was 30-35 % higher in soils with the non-mycorrhizal species oilseed radish, than in the control plots, regardless of the amount of P immobilized in microbial biomass. The values of enzyme activity were intermediate in the plots with corn spurry and black oat. Alkaline phosphatase activity was 10-fold lower and less sensitive to the treatments, despite the significant relationship between the two phosphatase activities. The effect of plant species on the soil enzyme profile continued in the subsequent periods, during the growth of mycorrhizal summer crops, after completion of the life cycle of the cover crops.

Dynamics of ammonium and pH in the solution of soils with different salinity levels, growing irrigated rice

Rice in Rio Grande do Sul State is grown mostly under flooding, which induces a series of chemical, physical and biological changes in the root environment. These changes, combined with the presence of rice plants, affect the availability of exchangeable ammonium (NH4+) and pH of soil solution, whereas the dynamics of both variables can be influenced by soil salinity, a common problem in the coastal region. This study was conducted to evaluate the dynamics of exchangeable NH4+ and pH in the soil solution, and their relation in the solution of Albaqualf soils with different salinity levels, under rice. Four field experiments were conducted with soils with exchangeable Na percentage (ESP) of 5.6, 9.0, 21.2, and 32.7 %. Prior to flooding, soil solution collectors were installed at depths of 5, 10 and 20 cm. The soil solution was collected weekly, from 7 to 91 days after flooding (DAF), to analyze exchangeable NH4+ and pH in the samples. Plant tissue was sampled 77 DAF, to determine N uptake and estimate the contribution of other N forms to rice nutrition. The content of exchangeable NH4+ decreased over time at all sites and depths, with a more pronounced reduction in soils with lower salinity levels, reaching values close to zero. A possible contribution of non-exchangeable NH4+ forms and N from soil organic matter to rice nutrition was observed. Soil pH decreased with time in soils with ESP 5.6 and 9.0 %, being positively correlated with the decreasing NH4+ levels at these sites.

Inertial effects on reactive particles advected by turbulence

We study the problem of the advection of passive particles with inertia in a two-dimensional, synthetic, and stationary turbulent flow. The asymptotic analytical result and numerical simulations show the importance of inertial bias in collecting the particles preferentially in certain regions of the flow, depending on their density relative to that of the flow. We also study how these aggregates are affected when a simple chemical reaction mechanism is introduced through a Eulerian scheme. We find that inertia can be responsible for maintaining a stationary concentration pattern even under nonfavorable reactive conditions or destroying it under favorable ones.

Dynamics of the two-dimensional gonihedric spin model

In this paper, we study dynamical aspects of the two-dimensional (2D) gonihedric spin model using both numerical and analytical methods. This spin model has vanishing microscopic surface tension and it actually describes an ensemble of loops living on a 2D surface. The self-avoidance of loops is parametrized by a parameter ¿. The ¿=0 model can be mapped to one of the six-vertex models discussed by Baxter, and it does not have critical behavior. We have found that allowing for ¿¿0 does not lead to critical behavior either. Finite-size effects are rather severe, and in order to understand these effects, a finite-volume calculation for non-self-avoiding loops is presented. This model, like his 3D counterpart, exhibits very slow dynamics, but a careful analysis of dynamical observables reveals nonglassy evolution (unlike its 3D counterpart). We find, also in this ¿=0 case, the law that governs the long-time, low-temperature evolution of the system, through a dual description in terms of defects. A power, rather than logarithmic, law for the approach to equilibrium has been found.

On the many-time formulation of classical particle dynamics

Starting from the standard one-time dynamics of n nonrelativistic particles, the n-time equations of motion are inferred, and a variational principle is formulated. A suitable generalization of the classical LieKnig theorem is demonstrated, which allows the determination of all the associated presymplectic structures. The conditions under which the action of an invariance group is canonical are studied, and a corresponding Noether theorem is deduced. A formulation of the theory in terms of n first-class constraints is recovered by means of coisotropic imbeddings. The proposed approach also provides for a better understanding of the relativistic particle dynamics, since it shows that the different roles of the physical positions and the canonical variables is not peculiar to special relativity, but rather to any n-time approach: indeed a nonrelativistic no-interaction theorem is deduced.

Soil nitrogen dynamics after Brachiaria desiccation

Brachiaria species, particularly B. humidicola, can synthesize and release compounds from their roots that inhibit nitrification, which can lead to changes in soil nitrogen (N) dynamics, mainly in N-poor soils. This may be important in crop-livestock integration systems, where brachiarias are grown together with or in rotation with grain crops. The objective of the present study was to determine whether this holds true in N-rich environments and if other Brachiaria species have the same effect. The soil N dynamics were evaluated after the desiccation of the species B. brizantha, B. decumbens, B. humidicola, and B. ruziziensis, which are widely cultivated in Brazil. The plants were grown in pots with a dystroferric Red Latosol in a greenhouse. Sixty days after sowing, the plants were desiccated using glyphosate herbicide. The plants and soil were analyzed on the day of desiccation and 7, 14, 21 and 28 days after desiccation. The rhizosphere soil of the grasses contained higher levels of organic matter, total N and ammonium than the non-rhizosphere soil. The pH was lowest in the rhizosphere of B. humidicola, which may indicate that this species inhibits the nitrification process. However, variations in the soil ammonium and nitrate levels were not sufficient to confirm the suppressive effect of B. humidicola. The same was observed for B. brizantha, B. decumbens and B. ruziziensis, thereby demonstrating that, where N is abundant, none of the brachiarias studied has a significant effect on the nitrification process in soil.

Fuzzy logic applied to the modeling of water dynamics in an Oxisol in northeastern Brazil

Modeling of water movement in non-saturated soil usually requires a large number of parameters and variables, such as initial soil water content, saturated water content and saturated hydraulic conductivity, which can be assessed relatively easily. Dimensional flow of water in the soil is usually modeled by a nonlinear partial differential equation, known as the Richards equation. Since this equation cannot be solved analytically in certain cases, one way to approach its solution is by numerical algorithms. The success of numerical models in describing the dynamics of water in the soil is closely related to the accuracy with which the water-physical parameters are determined. That has been a big challenge in the use of numerical models because these parameters are generally difficult to determine since they present great spatial variability in the soil. Therefore, it is necessary to develop and use methods that properly incorporate the uncertainties inherent to water displacement in soils. In this paper, a model based on fuzzy logic is used as an alternative to describe water flow in the vadose zone. This fuzzy model was developed to simulate the displacement of water in a non-vegetated crop soil during the period called the emergency phase. The principle of this model consists of a Mamdani fuzzy rule-based system in which the rules are based on the moisture content of adjacent soil layers. The performances of the results modeled by the fuzzy system were evaluated by the evolution of moisture profiles over time as compared to those obtained in the field. The results obtained through use of the fuzzy model provided satisfactory reproduction of soil moisture profiles.

Molecular dynamics study of the longitudinal modes in disparate-mass binaryliquid mixtures.

A series of molecular dynamics simulations of simple liquid binary mixtures of soft spheres with disparate-mass particles were carried out to investigate the origin of the marked differences between the dynamic structure factors of some liquid binary mixtures such as the Li0.7Mg0.3 and Li0.8Pb0.2 alloys. It is shown that the facility for observing peaks associated with fast-propagating modes in the partial Li-Li dynamic structure factor of Li0.8Pb0.2 should be mainly attributed to the structure of this alloy, which is characterized by an incipient ABAB ordering as found in molten salts. The longitudinal dispersion relations at intermediate wave vectors obtained from the longitudinal current spectra are very similar for the two alloys and reflect the existence of both fast-and slow-propagating modes of kinetic character associated with light and heavy particles, respectively. The influence of the hardness of the repulsive potential cores as well as the composition of the mixture on the longitudinal collective modes is also discussed.

Self and cross-velocity correlation functions and diffusion coefficients in liquids: a molecular dynamics study of binary mixtures of soft spheres

Molecular dynamics simulation is applied to the study of the diffusion properties in binary liquid mixtures made up of soft-sphere particles with different sizes and masses. Self- and distinct velocity correlation functions and related diffusion coefficients have been calculated. Special attention has been paid to the dynamic cross correlations which have been computed through recently introduced relative mean molecular velocity correlation functions which are independent on the reference frame. The differences between the distinct velocity correlations and diffusion coefficients in different reference frames (mass-fixed, number-fixed, and solvent-fixed) are discussed.