Bródy András gazdaságiciklus-elmélete (András Bródy's theory of economic cycles)

Bródy András kutatásainak egyik központi témaköre a gazdasági mozgás vizsgálata volt. Írásunkban Bródy elméletét kívánjuk röviden áttekinteni és összefoglalni. A termelés sokszektoros leírása egyben árelméletét (értékelméletét, méréselméletét) is keretbe foglalja. Ebben a keretben a gazdasági mozgás összetett ingadozása technológiai alapon elemezhető. Bródy megközelítésében a gazdasági ciklust nem külső megrázkódások magyarázzák, hanem a termelési rendszer belső arányai és kapcsolatai. A termelési struktúrát az árak és a volumenek egyformán alakítják, ezek között nincsen kitüntetett vagy domináns tényező. Az árak és a volumenek a köztük lévő duális kapcsolatban alakulnak ki. A gazdaság mozgásegyenleteit technológiai mérlegösszefüggések, valamint a piaci csere útján a gazdaságban újraelosztásra (újratermelésre) kerülő termékek felhasználása és az eszközlekötés változása írja le. Az így meghatározott mozgásegyenletek a gazdaság természetes mozgását ciklusmozgás alakjában írják le. A technológia vagy az értékviszonyok megváltozása (sokkok) a gazdaság ciklikus mozgásának megváltozásában tükröződik. Bródy munkáiban technológiai megalapozást nyer a történelemből ismert számos jellegzetes gazdasági ciklus. / === / Economic motion and dynamics are at the heart of Andras Brody's creative output. This paper attempts a bird's-eye view of his theory of economic cycles. Brody's multi-sector modelling of production has provided a framework for price theory (the theory of value and measurement). His theory of economic motion with cyclical characteristics is technology driven. It argues that the complex web of economic cycles is determined by the proportions and interrelationships of the system of production, not by arbitrary external shocks. The structure's behaviour are driven by prices and proportions, with the duality of prices and proportions as a dominant feature. These are features in common with the Leontief models, which Brody extended to economic cycles. Brody saw economic cycles as natural motions of economic systems with accumulated assets (time lags) and market exchange of goods (demand and supply adjustment). Changes in technology or valuations (shocks) are reflected in changing patterns of motion. His model of the economy is a fine instrument that enabled him to show how the technological parameters of its system determine the frequency and other characteristics of various economic cycles identified in economic history.

Ecological Homogenization of Urban USA

A visually apparent but scientifically untested outcome of land-use change is homogenization across urban areas, where neighborhoods in different parts of the country have similar patterns of roads, residential lots, commercial areas, and aquatic features. We hypothesize that this homogenization extends to ecological structure and also to ecosystem functions such as carbon dynamics and microclimate, with continental-scale implications. Further, we suggest that understanding urban homogenization will provide the basis for understanding the impacts of urban land-use change from local to continental scales. Here, we show how multi-scale, multi-disciplinary datasets from six metropolitan areas that cover the major climatic regions of the US (Phoenix, AZ; Miami, FL; Baltimore, MD; Boston, MA; Minneapolis–St Paul, MN; and Los Angeles, CA) can be used to determine how household and neighborhood characteristics correlate with land-management practices, land-cover composition, and landscape structure and ecosystem functions at local, regional, and continental scales.

Evaluating High-Resolution Aerial Photography Acquired by Unmanned Aerial Systems for Use in Mapping Everglades Wetland Plant Associations

Mapping of vegetation patterns over large extents using remote sensing methods requires field sample collections for two different purposes: (1) the establishment of plant association classification systems from samples of relative abundance estimates; and (2) training for supervised image classification and accuracy assessment of satellite data derived maps. One challenge for both procedures is the establishment of confidence in results and the analysis across multiple spatial scales. Continuous data sets that enable cross-scale studies are very time consuming and expensive to acquire and such extensive field sampling can be invasive. The use of high resolution aerial photography (hrAP) offers an alternative to extensive, invasive, field sampling and can provide large volume, spatially continuous, reference information that can meet the challenges of confidence building and multi-scale analysis.

Theoretical Investigation of Intra- and Inter-cellular Spatiotemporal Calcium Patterns in Microcirculation

Microcirculatory vessels are lined by endothelial cells (ECs) which are surrounded by a single or multiple layer of smooth muscle cells (SMCs). Spontaneous and agonist induced spatiotemporal calcium (Ca2+) events are generated in ECs and SMCs, and regulated by complex bi-directional signaling between the two layers which ultimately determines the vessel tone. The contractile state of microcirculatory vessels is an important factor in the determination of vascular resistance, blood flow and blood pressure. This dissertation presents theoretical insights into some of the important and currently unresolved phenomena in microvascular tone regulation. Compartmental and continuum models of isolated EC and SMC, coupled EC-SMC and a multi-cellular vessel segment with deterministic and stochastic descriptions of the cellular components were developed, and the intra- and inter-cellular spatiotemporal Ca2+ mobilization was examined. Coupled EC-SMC model simulations captured the experimentally observed localized subcellular EC Ca2+ events arising from the opening of EC transient receptor vanilloid 4 (TRPV4) channels and inositol triphosphate receptors (IP3Rs). These localized EC Ca2+ events result in endothelium-derived hyperpolarization (EDH) and Nitric Oxide (NO) production which transmit to the adjacent SMCs to ultimately result in vasodilation. The model examined the effect of heterogeneous distribution of cellular components and channel gating kinetics in determination of the amplitude and spread of the Ca2+ events. The simulations suggested the necessity of co-localization of certain cellular components for modulation of EDH and NO responses. Isolated EC and SMC models captured intracellular Ca2+ wave like activity and predicted the necessity of non-uniform distribution of cellular components for the generation of Ca2+ waves. The simulations also suggested the role of membrane potential dynamics in regulating Ca2+ wave velocity. The multi-cellular vessel segment model examined the underlying mechanisms for the intercellular synchronization of spontaneous oscillatory Ca2+ waves in individual SMC. From local subcellular events to integrated macro-scale behavior at the vessel level, the developed multi-scale models captured basic features of vascular Ca2+ signaling and provide insights for their physiological relevance. The models provide a theoretical framework for assisting investigations on the regulation of vascular tone in health and disease.

The Lena River Delta - Land cover classification of tundra environments based on Landsat 7 ETM+ data and its application for upscaling of methane emissions

The Lena River Delta, situated in Northern Siberia (72.0 - 73.8° N, 122.0 - 129.5° E), is the largest Arctic delta and covers 29,000 km**2. Since natural deltas are characterised by complex geomorphological patterns and various types of ecosystems, high spatial resolution information on the distribution and extent of the delta environments is necessary for a spatial assessment and accurate quantification of biogeochemical processes as drivers for the emission of greenhouse gases from tundra soils. In this study, the first land cover classification for the entire Lena Delta based on Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) images was conducted and used for the quantification of methane emissions from the delta ecosystems on the regional scale. The applied supervised minimum distance classification was very effective with the few ancillary data that were available for training site selection. Nine land cover classes of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems in the wetland dominated (72%) Lena Delta could be defined by this classification approach. The mean daily methane emission of the entire Lena Delta was calculated with 10.35 mg CH4/m**2/d. Taking our multi-scale approach into account we find that the methane source strength of certain tundra wetland types is lower than calculated previously on coarser scales.

On the feasibility of time-lapse superconducting gravimetry for reservoir monitoring

The feasibility of monitoring fluid flow subsurface processes that result in density changes, using the iGrav superconducting gravimeter, is investigated. Practical targets include steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) bitumen depletion and water pumping from aquifers, for which there is currently a void in low-impact, inexpensive monitoring techniques. This study demonstrates that the iGrav has the potential to be applied to multi-scale and diverse reservoirs. Gravity and gravity gradient signals are forward modeled for a real SAGD reservoir at two time steps, and for surface-fed and groundwater-fed aquifer pumping models, to estimate signal strength and directional dependency of water flow. Time-lapse gravimetry on small-scale reservoirs exhibits two obstacles, namely, a µgal sensitivity requirement and high noise levels in the vicinity of the reservoir. In this study, both limitations are overcome by proposing (i) a portable superconducting gravimeter, and (ii) a pair of instruments under various baseline geometries. This results in improved spatial resolution for locating depletion zones, as well as the cancellation of noise common in both instruments. Results indicate that a pair of iGrav superconducting gravimeters meet the sensitivity requirements and the spatial focusing desired to monitor SAGD bitumen migration at the reservoir scales. For SAGD reservoirs, the well pair separation, reservoir depth, and survey sampling determine the resolvability of individual well pair depletion patterns during the steam chamber rising phase, and general reservoir depletion patterns during the steam chamber spreading phase. Results show that monitoring water table elevation changes due to pumping and tracking whether groundwater or surface water is being extracted are feasible.

The Pico de Navas slump (Burgos, Spain): a large rocky landslide caused by underlying clayey sand fluidification

The Pico de Navas landslide was a large-magnitude rotational movement, affecting 50x106m3 of hard to soft rocks. The objectives of this study were: (1) to characterize the landslide in terms of geology, geomorphological features and geotechnical parameters; and (2) to obtain an adequate geomechanical model to comprehensively explain its rupture, considering topographic, hydro-geological and geomechanical conditions. The rupture surface crossed, from top to bottom: (a) more than 200 m of limestone and clay units of the Upper Cretaceous, affected by faults; and (b) the Albian unit of Utrillas facies composed of silty sand with clay (Kaolinite) of the Lower Cretaceous. This sand played an important role in the basal failure of the slide due to the influence of fine particles (silt and clay), which comprised on average more than 70% of the sand, and the high content presence of kaolinite (>40%) in some beds. Its geotechnical parameters are: unit weight (δ) = 19-23 KN/m3; friction angle (φ) = 13º-38º and cohesion (c) = 10-48 KN/m2. Its microstructure consists of accumulations of kaolinite crystals stuck to terrigenous grains, making clayey peds. We hypothesize that the presence of these aggregates was the internal cause of fluidification of this layer once wet. Besides the faulted structure of the massif, other conditioning factors of the movement were: the large load of the upper limestone layers; high water table levels; high water pore pressure; and the loss of strength due to wet conditions. The 3D simulation of the stability conditions concurs with our hypothesis. The landslide occurred in the Recent or Middle Holocene, certainly before at least 500 BC and possibly during a wet climate period. Today, it appears to be inactive. This study helps to understand the frequent slope instabilities all along the Iberian Range when facies Utrillas is present.

Overview on bio-based building material made with plant aggregate

Global warming, energy savings, and life cycle analysis issues are factors that have contributed to the rapid expansion of plant-based materials for buildings, which can be qualified as environmental-friendly, sustainable and efficient multifunctional materials. This review presents an overview on the several possibilities developed worldwide about the use of plant aggregate to design bio-based building materials. The use of crushed vegetal aggregates such as hemp (shiv), flax, coconut shells and other plants associated to mineral binder represents the most popular solution adopted in the beginning of this revolution in building materials. Vegetal aggregates are generally highly porous with a low apparent density and a complex architecture marked by a multi-scale porosity. These geometrical characteristics result in a high capacity to absorb sounds and have hygro-thermal transfer ability. This is one of the essential characteristics which differ of vegetal concrete compared to the tradition mineral-based concretes. In addition, the high flexibility of the aggregates leads to a non-fragile elasto-plastic behavior and a high deformability under stress, lack of fracturing and marked ductility with absorbance of the strains ever after having reached the maximum mechanical strength. Due to the sensitivity to moisture, the assessment of the durability of vegetal concrete constitutes one of the next scientific challenging of bio-based building materials.

National climate policies across Europe and their impacts on cities strategies

Globally, efforts are underway to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to climate change impacts at the local level. However, there is a poor understanding of the relationship between city strategies on climate change mitigation and adaptation and the relevant policies at national and European level. This paper describes a comparative study and evaluation of cross-national policy. It reports the findings of studying the climate change strategies or plans from 200 European cities from Austria, Belgium, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and the United Kingdom. The study highlights the shared responsibility of global, European, national, regional and city policies. An interpretation and illustration of the influences from international and national networks and policy makers in stimulating the development of local strategies and actions is proposed. It was found that there is no archetypical way of planning for climate change, and multiple interests and motivations are inevitable. Our research warrants the need for a multi-scale approach to climate policy in the future, mainly ensuring sufficient capacity and resource to enable local authorities to plan and respond to their specific climate change agenda for maximising the management potentials for translating environmental challenges into opportunities.

The microphysics of collisionless shock waves

Collisionless shocks, that is shocks mediated by electromagnetic processes, are customary in space physics and in astrophysics. They are to be found in a great variety of objects and environments: magnetospheric and heliospheric shocks, supernova remnants, pulsar winds and their nebulæ, active galactic nuclei, gamma-ray bursts and clusters of galaxies shock waves. Collisionless shock microphysics enters at different stages of shock formation, shock dynamics and particle energization and/or acceleration. It turns out that the shock phenomenon is a multi-scale non-linear problem in time and space. It is complexified by the impact due to high-energy cosmic rays in astrophysical environments. This review adresses the physics of shock formation, shock dynamics and particle acceleration based on a close examination of available multi-wavelength or in situ observations, analytical and numerical developments. A particular emphasis is made on the different instabilities triggered during the shock formation and in association with particle acceleration processes with regards to the properties of the background upstream medium. It appears that among the most important parameters the background magnetic field through the magnetization and its obliquity is the dominant one. The shock velocity that can reach relativistic speeds has also a strong impact over the development of the micro-instabilities and the fate of particle acceleration. Recent developments of laboratory shock experiments has started to bring some new insights in the physics of space plasma and astrophysical shock waves. A special section is dedicated to new laser plasma experiments probing shock physics.

Stuck in the middle with you: The role of bridging organisations in urban regeneration

The literature on the governance of social-ecological systems increasingly recognizes a key role of bridging organisations (BOs) in transition processes towards sustainability. BOs can be defined as facilitators who allow for interorganisational collaboration. Our paper provides a more nuanced understanding of specific BO activities and their contributions towards urban sustainability. Our analysis is based on applying three complementary methodological angles (drawing on geolocalised data, interviews and action research) to 20 years of urban renovation investments in the city-region of Brussels. We distinguish between multi-scale, multi-actor and multi-dimensional tensions in urban renovation programmes and link these tensions to bridging challenges for BOs. Results suggest that the corresponding three types of bridging roles form a trilemma rather than a trilogy: the BOs in study have mediated one tension by de facto exacerbating another. Lessons from action research suggest that a wider use of temporality and shared language to communicate about urban renovation projects could attenuate the bridging trilemma.

Supporting data for Blossey et al (2016): CGILS Phase 2 LES intercomparison of response of subtropical marine low cloud regimes to CO2 quadrupling and a CMIP3-composite forcing change

This archive provides supporting data with forcings, data and plotting scripts for the paper P. N. Blossey, C. S. Bretherton, A. Cheng, S. Endo, T. Heus, A. Lock and J. J. van der Dussen, 2016. CGILS Phase 2 LES intercomparison of response of subtropical marine low cloud regimes to CO2 quadrupling and a CMIP3-composite forcing change. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., Under revision.

A Generalized Methodology to Characterize Composite Materials for Pyrolysis Models

The predictive capabilities of computational fire models have improved in recent years such that models have become an integral part of many research efforts. Models improve the understanding of the fire risk of materials and may decrease the number of expensive experiments required to assess the fire hazard of a specific material or designed space. A critical component of a predictive fire model is the pyrolysis sub-model that provides a mathematical representation of the rate of gaseous fuel production from condensed phase fuels given a heat flux incident to the material surface. The modern, comprehensive pyrolysis sub-models that are common today require the definition of many model parameters to accurately represent the physical description of materials that are ubiquitous in the built environment. Coupled with the increase in the number of parameters required to accurately represent the pyrolysis of materials is the increasing prevalence in the built environment of engineered composite materials that have never been measured or modeled. The motivation behind this project is to develop a systematic, generalized methodology to determine the requisite parameters to generate pyrolysis models with predictive capabilities for layered composite materials that are common in industrial and commercial applications. This methodology has been applied to four common composites in this work that exhibit a range of material structures and component materials. The methodology utilizes a multi-scale experimental approach in which each test is designed to isolate and determine a specific subset of the parameters required to define a material in the model. Data collected in simultaneous thermogravimetry and differential scanning calorimetry experiments were analyzed to determine the reaction kinetics, thermodynamic properties, and energetics of decomposition for each component of the composite. Data collected in microscale combustion calorimetry experiments were analyzed to determine the heats of complete combustion of the volatiles produced in each reaction. Inverse analyses were conducted on sample temperature data collected in bench-scale tests to determine the thermal transport parameters of each component through degradation. Simulations of quasi-one-dimensional bench-scale gasification tests generated from the resultant models using the ThermaKin modeling environment were compared to experimental data to independently validate the models.

Hierarchical Reconstruction Method for Solving Ill-posed Linear Inverse Problems

We present a detailed analysis of the application of a multi-scale Hierarchical Reconstruction method for solving a family of ill-posed linear inverse problems. When the observations on the unknown quantity of interest and the observation operators are known, these inverse problems are concerned with the recovery of the unknown from its observations. Although the observation operators we consider are linear, they are inevitably ill-posed in various ways. We recall in this context the classical Tikhonov regularization method with a stabilizing function which targets the specific ill-posedness from the observation operators and preserves desired features of the unknown. Having studied the mechanism of the Tikhonov regularization, we propose a multi-scale generalization to the Tikhonov regularization method, so-called the Hierarchical Reconstruction (HR) method. First introduction of the HR method can be traced back to the Hierarchical Decomposition method in Image Processing. The HR method successively extracts information from the previous hierarchical residual to the current hierarchical term at a finer hierarchical scale. As the sum of all the hierarchical terms, the hierarchical sum from the HR method provides an reasonable approximate solution to the unknown, when the observation matrix satisfies certain conditions with specific stabilizing functions. When compared to the Tikhonov regularization method on solving the same inverse problems, the HR method is shown to be able to decrease the total number of iterations, reduce the approximation error, and offer self control of the approximation distance between the hierarchical sum and the unknown, thanks to using a ladder of finitely many hierarchical scales. We report numerical experiments supporting our claims on these advantages the HR method has over the Tikhonov regularization method.

Provenance does matter: Links between winter trophic segregation and the migratory origins of European robins

Amongst migratory species, it is common to find individuals from different populations or geographical origins sharing staging or wintering areas. Given their differing life histories, ecological theory would predict that the different groups of individuals should exhibit some level of niche segregation. This has rarely been investigated because of the difficulty in assigning migrating individuals to breeding areas. Here, we start by documenting a broad geographical gradient of hydrogen isotopes (δ (2)H) in robin Erithacus rubecula feathers across Europe. We then use δ (2)H, as well as wing-tip shape, as surrogates for broad migratory origin of birds wintering in Iberia, to investigate the ecological segregation of populations. Wintering robins of different sexes, ages and body sizes are known to segregate between habitats in Iberia. This has been attributed to the despotic exclusion of inferior competitors from the best patches by dominant individuals. We find no segregation between habitats in relation to δ (2)H in feathers, or to wing-tip shape, which suggests that no major asymmetries in competitive ability exist between migrant robins of different origins. Trophic level (inferred from nitrogen isotopes in blood) correlated both with δ (2)H in feathers and with wing-tip shape, showing that individuals from different geographic origins display a degree of ecological segregation in shared winter quarters. Isotopic mixing models indicate that wintering birds originating from more northerly populations consume more invertebrates. Our multi-scale study suggests that trophic-niche segregation may result from specializations (arising in the population-specific breeding areas) that are transported by the migrants into the shared wintering grounds.