A Monte Carlo approach to the inverse problem of diffuse pollution risk in agricultural catchments

The hydrological and biogeochemical processes that operate in catchments influence the ecological quality of freshwater systems through delivery of fine sediment, nutrients and organic matter. Most models that seek to characterise the delivery of diffuse pollutants from land to water are reductionist. The multitude of processes that are parameterised in such models to ensure generic applicability make them complex and difficult to test on available data. Here, we outline an alternative - data-driven - inverse approach. We apply SCIMAP, a parsimonious risk based model that has an explicit treatment of hydrological connectivity. we take a Bayesian approach to the inverse problem of determining the risk that must be assigned to different land uses in a catchment in order to explain the spatial patterns of measured in-stream nutrient concentrations. We apply the model to identify the key sources of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) diffuse pollution risk in eleven UK catchments covering a range of landscapes. The model results show that: 1) some land use generates a consistently high or low risk of diffuse nutrient pollution; but 2) the risks associated with different land uses vary both between catchments and between nutrients; and 3) that the dominant sources of P and N risk in the catchment are often a function of the spatial configuration of land uses. Taken on a case-by-case basis, this type of inverse approach may be used to help prioritise the focus of interventions to reduce diffuse pollution risk for freshwater ecosystems. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty associated with Monte Carlo radiation transport in radionuclide metrology

In radionuclide metrology, Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is widely used to compute parameters associated with primary measurements or calibration factors. Although MC methods are used to estimate uncertainties, the uncertainty associated with radiation transport in MC calculations is usually difficult to estimate. Counting statistics is the most obvious component of MC uncertainty and has to be checked carefully, particularly when variance reduction is used. However, in most cases fluctuations associated with counting statistics can be reduced using sufficient computing power. Cross-section data have intrinsic uncertainties that induce correlations when apparently independent codes are compared. Their effect on the uncertainty of the estimated parameter is difficult to determine and varies widely from case to case. Finally, the most significant uncertainty component for radionuclide applications is usually that associated with the detector geometry. Recent 2D and 3D x-ray imaging tools may be utilized, but comparison with experimental data as well as adjustments of parameters are usually inevitable.

Dosimetria em folículos tireoidianos devido aos elétrons de baixa energia do iodo usando o método Monte Carlo

OBJETIVO: Avaliar a dose absorvida em folículos tireoidianos devido aos elétrons de baixa energia, como os elétrons Auger e os de conversão interna, além das partículas beta, para os radioisótopos de iodo (131I, 132I, 133I, 134I e 135I) usando o método Monte Carlo. MATERIAIS E MÉTODOS: O cálculo da dose foi feito ao nível folicular, simulando elétrons Auger, conversão interna e partículas beta, com o código MCNP4C. Os folículos (colóide e células foliculares) foram modelados como esferas, com diâmetros do colóide variando de 30 a 500 mm. A densidade considerada para os folículos foi a da água (1,0 g.cm-³). RESULTADOS: Considerando partículas de baixa energia, o percentual de contribuição do 131I na dose total absorvida pelo colóide é de aproximadamente 25%, enquanto os isótopos de meia-vida física curta apresentaram contribuição de 75%. Para as células foliculares, esse percentual é ainda maior, chegando a 87% para os iodos de meia-vida curta e 13% para o 131I. CONCLUSÃO: Com base nos resultados obtidos, pode-se mostrar a importância de se considerar partículas de baixa energia na contribuição para a dose total absorvida ao nível folicular (colóide e células foliculares) devido aos radioisótopos de iodo (131I, 132I, 133I, 134I e 135I).

Redução de incertezas em radioterapia utilizando simulação Monte Carlo: análise espectral aplicada à correção de dose absorvida

OBJETIVO: Determinar, por simulação Monte Carlo, os espectros de feixes de cobaltoterapia em profundidade na água e fatores de correção para doses absorvidas em dosímetros termoluminescentes de fluoreto de lítio. MATERIAIS E MÉTODOS: As simulações dos espectros secundários da fonte clínica de cobalto-60 foram realizadas com o código Monte Carlo PENELOPE, em diversas profundidades na água. Medidas experimentais de dose profunda foram obtidas com dosímetros termoluminescentes e câmara de ionização em condições de referência em radioterapia. Os fatores de correção para os dosímetros termoluminescentes foram obtidos através da razão entre as absorções relativas ao espectro de baixa energia e ao espectro total. RESULTADOS: A análise espectral em profundidade revelou a existência de espectros secundários de baixa energia responsáveis por uma parcela significativa da deposição de dose. Foram observadas discrepâncias de 3,2% nas doses medidas experimentalmente com a câmara de ionização e com os dosímetros termoluminescentes. O uso dos fatores de correção nessas medidas permitiu diminuir a discrepância entre as doses absorvidas para, no máximo, 0,3%. CONCLUSÃO: Os espectros simulados permitem o cálculo de fatores de correção para as leituras de dosímetros termoluminescentes utilizados em medidas de dose profunda, contribuindo para a redução das incertezas associadas ao controle de qualidade de feixes clínicos em radioterapia.

Monte Carlo derivation of filtered tungsten anode X-ray spectra for dose computation in digital mammography

Abstract Objective: Derive filtered tungsten X-ray spectra used in digital mammography systems by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Materials and Methods: Filtered spectra for rhodium filter were obtained for tube potentials between 26 and 32 kV. The half-value layer (HVL) of simulated filtered spectra were compared with those obtained experimentally with a solid state detector Unfors model 8202031-H Xi R/F & MAM Detector Platinum and 8201023-C Xi Base unit Platinum Plus w mAs in a Hologic Selenia Dimensions system using a direct radiography mode. Results: Calculated HVL values showed good agreement as compared with those obtained experimentally. The greatest relative difference between the Monte Carlo calculated HVL values and experimental HVL values was 4%. Conclusion: The results show that the filtered tungsten anode X-ray spectra and the EGSnrc Monte Carlo code can be used for mean glandular dose determination in mammography.

Monte Carlo thermodynamic and structural properties of the TIP4P water model: dependence on the computational conditions

Classical Monte Carlo simulations were carried out on the NPT ensemble at 25°C and 1 atm, aiming to investigate the ability of the TIP4P water model [Jorgensen, Chandrasekhar, Madura, Impey and Klein; J. Chem. Phys., 79 (1983) 926] to reproduce the newest structural picture of liquid water. The results were compared with recent neutron diffraction data [Soper; Bruni and Ricci; J. Chem. Phys., 106 (1997) 247]. The influence of the computational conditions on the thermodynamic and structural results obtained with this model was also analyzed. The findings were compared with the original ones from Jorgensen et al [above-cited reference plus Mol. Phys., 56 (1985) 1381]. It is notice that the thermodynamic results are dependent on the boundary conditions used, whereas the usual radial distribution functions g(O/O(r)) and g(O/H(r)) do not depend on them.

Estudo de reações químicas homogêneas via método de Monte Carlo

By using the Monte Carlo simulation platform with probabilistic mathematical functions of the Boltzmann type, , having activation energy and temperature as parameters, it was possible to assess important dynamic aspects of homogeneous chemical reactions of the types A → B and A B. The protocol proved a useful tool in work with the basic concepts of Kinetics and Thermodynamics allowing its application both in class activities and for assisting experimental procedures.

Monte Carlo -reaktorifysiikkalaskennan ja laskennallisen virtausmekaniikan kytkentä kuulakekoreaktorissa

Monte Carlo -reaktorifysiikkakoodit nykyisin käytettävissä olevilla laskentatehoilla tarjoavat mielenkiintoisen tavan reaktorifysiikan ongelmien ratkaisuun. Neljännen sukupolven ydinreaktoreissa käytettävät uudet rakenteet ja materiaalit ovat haasteellisia nykyisiin reaktoreihin suunnitelluille laskentaohjelmille. Tässä työssä Monte Carlo -reaktorifysiikkakoodi ja CFD-koodi yhdistetään kytkettyyn laskentaan kuulakekoreaktorissa, joka on yksi korkealämpötilareaktorityyppi. Työssä käytetty lähestymistapa on uutta maailmankin mittapuussa ajateltuna.

Structural modelling of liquid ZrO2 and glassy B2O3 by using AB INITIO Molecular Dynamics method

Atomic structure of ZrO2 and B2O3 was investigated in this work. New data under extreme conditions (T = 3100 K) was obtained for the liquid ZrO2 structure. A fractional number of boron was investigated for glassy structure of B2O3. It was shown that it is possible to obtain an agreement for the fractional number between NMR and DFT techniques using a suitable initial configuration.

Quantum Monte Carlo study of electrostatic polarizabilities of H and He atoms /

The infinitesimal differential quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) technique is used to estimate electrostatic polarizabilities of the H and He atoms up to the sixth order in the electric field perturbation. All 542 different QMC estimators of the nonzero atomic polarizabilities are derived and used in order to decrease the statistical error and to obtain the maximum efficiency of the simulations. We are confident that the estimates are "exact" (free of systematic error): the two atoms are nodeless systems, hence no fixed-node error is introduced. Furthermore, we develope and use techniques which eliminate systematic error inherent when extrapolating our results to zero time-step and large stack-size. The QMC results are consistent with published accurate values obtained using perturbation methods. The precision is found to be related to the number of perturbations, varying from 2 to 4 significant digits.

Mesures de risque d'inflation: estimations et étude de Monte Carlo.

Rapport de recherche

Études Monte Carlo des mesures d'étalonnage aux neutrons et aux particules alpha du détecteur PICASSO

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

Le progiciel PoweR : un outil de recherche reproductible pour faciliter les calculs de puissance de certains tests d'hypothèses au moyen de simulations de Monte Carlo

Notre progiciel PoweR vise à faciliter l'obtention ou la vérification des études empiriques de puissance pour les tests d'ajustement. En tant que tel, il peut être considéré comme un outil de calcul de recherche reproductible, car il devient très facile à reproduire (ou détecter les erreurs) des résultats de simulation déjà publiés dans la littérature. En utilisant notre progiciel, il devient facile de concevoir de nouvelles études de simulation. Les valeurs critiques et puissances de nombreuses statistiques de tests sous une grande variété de distributions alternatives sont obtenues très rapidement et avec précision en utilisant un C/C++ et R environnement. On peut même compter sur le progiciel snow de R pour le calcul parallèle, en utilisant un processeur multicœur. Les résultats peuvent être affichés en utilisant des tables latex ou des graphiques spécialisés, qui peuvent être incorporés directement dans vos publications. Ce document donne un aperçu des principaux objectifs et les principes de conception ainsi que les stratégies d'adaptation et d'extension.