Polytomies and bayesian phylogenetic inference

Bayesian phylogenetic analyses are now very popular in systematics and molecular evolution because they allow the use of much more realistic models than currently possible with maximum likelihood methods. There are, however, a growing number of examples in which large Bayesian posterior clade probabilities are associated with very short edge lengths and low values for non-Bayesian measures of support such as nonparametric bootstrapping. For the four-taxon case when the true tree is the star phylogeny, Bayesian analyses become increasingly unpredictable in their preference for one of the three possible resolved tree topologies as data set size increases. This leads to the prediction that hard (or near-hard) polytomies in nature will cause unpredictable behavior in Bayesian analyses, with arbitrary resolutions of the polytomy receiving very high posterior probabilities in some cases. We present a simple solution to this problem involving a reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that allows exploration of all of tree space, including unresolved tree topologies with one or more polytomies. The reversible-jump MCMC approach allows prior distributions to place some weight on less-resolved tree topologies, which eliminates misleadingly high posteriors associated with arbitrary resolutions of hard polytomies. Fortunately, assigning some prior probability to polytomous tree topologies does not appear to come with a significant cost in terms of the ability to assess the level of support for edges that do exist in the true tree. Methods are discussed for applying arbitrary prior distributions to tree topologies of varying resolution, and an empirical example showing evidence of polytomies is analyzed and discussed.

Técnicas de análisis, caracterización y detección de señales de voz en entornos acústicos adversos

Este trabajo de Tesis ha abordado el objetivo de dar robustez y mejorar la Detección de Actividad de Voz en entornos acústicos adversos con el fin de favorecer el comportamiento de muchas aplicaciones vocales, por ejemplo aplicaciones de telefonía basadas en reconocimiento automático de voz, aplicaciones en sistemas de transcripción automática, aplicaciones en sistemas multicanal, etc. En especial, aunque se han tenido en cuenta todos los tipos de ruido, se muestra especial interés en el estudio de las voces de fondo, principal fuente de error de la mayoría de los Detectores de Actividad en la actualidad. Las tareas llevadas a cabo poseen como punto de partida un Detector de Actividad basado en Modelos Ocultos de Markov, cuyo vector de características contiene dos componentes: la energía normalizada y la variación de la energía. Las aportaciones fundamentales de esta Tesis son las siguientes: 1) ampliación del vector de características de partida dotándole así de información espectral, 2) ajuste de los Modelos Ocultos de Markov al entorno y estudio de diferentes topologías y, finalmente, 3) estudio e inclusión de nuevas características, distintas de las del punto 1, para filtrar los pulsos de pronunciaciones que proceden de las voces de fondo. Los resultados de detección, teniendo en cuenta los tres puntos anteriores, muestran con creces los avances realizados y son significativamente mejores que los resultados obtenidos, bajo las mismas condiciones, con otros detectores de actividad de referencia. This work has been focused on improving the robustness at Voice Activity Detection in adverse acoustic environments in order to enhance the behavior of many vocal applications, for example telephony applications based on automatic speech recognition, automatic transcription applications, multichannel systems applications, and so on. In particular, though all types of noise have taken into account, this research has special interest in the study of pronunciations coming from far-field speakers, the main error source of most activity detectors today. The tasks carried out have, as starting point, a Hidden Markov Models Voice Activity Detector which a feature vector containing two components: normalized energy and delta energy. The key points of this Thesis are the following: 1) feature vector extension providing spectral information, 2) Hidden Markov Models adjustment to environment and study of different Hidden Markov Model topologies and, finally, 3) study and inclusion of new features, different from point 1, to reject the pronunciations coming from far-field speakers. Detection results, taking into account the above three points, show the advantages of using this method and are significantly better than the results obtained under the same conditions by other well-known voice activity detectors.

An approach to operational modal analysis using the expectation maximization algorithm

This paper presents the Expectation Maximization algorithm (EM) applied to operational modal analysis of structures. The EM algorithm is a general-purpose method for maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) that in this work is used to estimate state space models. As it is well known, the MLE enjoys some optimal properties from a statistical point of view, which make it very attractive in practice. However, the EM algorithm has two main drawbacks: its slow convergence and the dependence of the solution on the initial values used. This paper proposes two different strategies to choose initial values for the EM algorithm when used for operational modal analysis: to begin with the parameters estimated by Stochastic Subspace Identification method (SSI) and to start using random points. The effectiveness of the proposed identification method has been evaluated through numerical simulation and measured vibration data in the context of a benchmark problem. Modal parameters (natural frequencies, damping ratios and mode shapes) of the benchmark structure have been estimated using SSI and the EM algorithm. On the whole, the results show that the application of the EM algorithm starting from the solution given by SSI is very useful to identify the vibration modes of a structure, discarding the spurious modes that appear in high order models and discovering other hidden modes. Similar results are obtained using random starting values, although this strategy allows us to analyze the solution of several starting points what overcome the dependence on the initial values used.

HF spectrum activity prediction model based on HMM for cognitive radio applications

Although most of the research on Cognitive Radio is focused on communication bands above the HF upper limit (30 MHz), Cognitive Radio principles can also be applied to HF communications to make use of the extremely scarce spectrum more efficiently. In this work we consider legacy users as primary users since these users transmit without resorting to any smart procedure, and our stations using the HFDVL (HF Data+Voice Link) architecture as secondary users. Our goal is to enhance an efficient use of the HF band by detecting the presence of uncoordinated primary users and avoiding collisions with them while transmitting in different HF channels using our broad-band HF transceiver. A model of the primary user activity dynamics in the HF band is developed in this work to make short-term predictions of the sojourn time of a primary user in the band and avoid collisions. It is based on Hidden Markov Models (HMM) which are a powerful tool for modelling stochastic random processes and are trained with real measurements of the 14 MHz band. By using the proposed HMM based model, the prediction model achieves an average 10.3% prediction error rate with one minute-long channel knowledge but it can be reduced when this knowledge is extended: with the previous 8 min knowledge, an average 5.8% prediction error rate is achieved. These results suggest that the resulting activity model for the HF band could actually be used to predict primary users activity and included in a future HF cognitive radio based station.

Efficiency improvement of HF communications using cognitive radio principles

Cognitive Radio principles can be applied to HF communications to make a more efficient use of the extremely scarce spectrum. In this contribution we focus on analyzing the usage of the available channels done by the legacy users, which are regarded as primary users since they are allowed to transmit without resorting any smart procedure, and consider the possibilities for our stations -over the HFDVL (HF Data+Voice Link) architecture- to participate as secondary users. Our goal is to enhance an efficient use of the HF band by detecting the presence of uncoordinated primary users and avoiding collisions with them while transmitting in different HF channels using our broad-band HF transceiver. A model of the primary user activity dynamics in the HF band is developed in this work. It is based on Hidden Markov Models (HMM) which are a powerful tool for modelling stochastic random processes, and is trained with real measurements from the 14 MHz band.

Propuesta, implementación y evaluación de la biometría de firma en el aire como sistema de verificación en teléfonos móviles

En esta tesis doctoral se propone una técnica biométrica de verificación en teléfonos móviles consistente en realizar una firma en el aire con la mano que sujeta el teléfono móvil. Los acelerómetros integrados en el dispositivo muestrean las aceleraciones del movimiento de la firma en el aire, generando tres señales temporales que pueden utilizarse para la verificación del usuario. Se proponen varios enfoques para la implementación del sistema de verificación, a partir de los enfoques más utilizados en biometría de firma manuscrita: correspondencia de patrones, con variantes de los algoritmos de Needleman-Wusch (NW) y Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), modelos ocultos de Markov (HMM) y clasificador estadístico basado en Máquinas de Vector Soporte (SVM). Al no existir bases de datos públicas de firmas en el aire y con el fin de evaluar los métodos propuestos en esta tesis doctoral, se han capturado dos con distintas características; una con falsificaciones reales a partir del estudio de las grabaciones de usuarios auténticos y otra con muestras de usuarios obtenidas en diferentes sesiones a lo largo del tiempo. Utilizando estas bases de datos se han evaluado una gran cantidad de algoritmos para implementar un sistema de verificación basado en firma en el aire. Esta evaluación se ha realizado de acuerdo con el estándar ISO/IEC 19795, añadiendo el caso de verificación en mundo abierto no incluido en la norma. Además, se han analizado las características que hacen que una firma sea suficientemente segura. Por otro lado, se ha estudiado la permanencia de las firmas en el aire a lo largo del tiempo, proponiendo distintos métodos de actualización, basados en una adaptación dinámica del patrón, para mejorar su rendimiento. Finalmente, se ha implementado un prototipo de la técnica de firma en el aire para teléfonos Android e iOS. Los resultados de esta tesis doctoral han tenido un gran impacto, generando varias publicaciones en revistas internacionales, congresos y libros. La firma en el aire ha sido nombrada también en varias revistas de divulgación, portales de noticias Web y televisión. Además, se han obtenido varios premios en competiciones de ideas innovadoras y se ha firmado un acuerdo de explotación de la tecnología con una empresa extranjera. ABSTRACT This thesis proposes a biometric verification technique on mobile phones consisting on making a signature in the air with the hand holding a mobile phone. The accelerometers integrated in the device capture the movement accelerations, generating three temporal signals that can be used for verification. This thesis suggests several approaches for implementing the verification system, based on the most widely used approaches in handwritten signature biometrics: template matching, with a lot of variations of the Needleman- Wusch (NW) and Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) algorithms, Hidden Markov Models (HMM) and Supported Vector Machines (SVM). As there are no public databases of in-air signatures and with the aim of assessing the proposed methods, there have been captured two databases; one. with real falsification attempts from the study of recordings captured when genuine users made their signatures in front of a camera, and other, with samples obtained in different sessions over a long period of time. These databases have been used to evaluate a lot of algorithms in order to implement a verification system based on in-air signatures. This evaluation has been conducted according to the standard ISO/IEC 19795, adding the open-set verification scenario not included in the norm. In addition, the characteristics of a secure signature are also investigated, as well as the permanence of in-air signatures over time, proposing several updating strategies to improve its performance. Finally, a prototype of in-air signature has been developed for iOS and Android phones. The results of this thesis have achieved a high impact, publishing several articles in SCI journals, conferences and books. The in-air signature deployed in this thesis has been also referred in numerous media. Additionally, this technique has won several awards in the entrepreneurship field and also an exploitation agreement has been signed with a foreign company.

Human activity recognition by inertial signals obtained from a smartphone

Human Activity Recognition (HAR) is an emerging research field with the aim to identify the actions carried out by a person given a set of observations and the surrounding environment. The wide growth in this research field inside the scientific community is mainly explained by the high number of applications that are arising in the last years. A great part of the most promising applications are related to the healthcare field, where it is possible to track the mobility of patients with motor dysfunction as also the physical activity in patients with cardiovascular risk. Until a few years ago, by using distinct kind of sensors, a patient follow-up was possible. However, far from being a long-term solution and with the smartphone irruption, that monitoring can be achieved in a non-invasive way by using the embedded smartphone’s sensors. For these reasons this Final Degree Project arises with the main target to evaluate new feature extraction techniques in order to carry out an activity and user recognition, and also an activity segmentation. The recognition is done thanks to the inertial signals integration obtained by two widespread sensors in the greater part of smartphones: accelerometer and gyroscope. In particular, six different activities are evaluated walking, walking-upstairs, walking-downstairs, sitting, standing and lying. Furthermore, a segmentation task is carried out taking into account the activities performed by thirty users. This can be done by using Hidden Markov Models and also a set of tools tested satisfactory in speech recognition: HTK (Hidden Markov Model Toolkit).

Identification of a human nuclear receptor defines a new signaling pathway for CYP3A induction

Nuclear receptors regulate metabolic pathways in response to changes in the environment by appropriate alterations in gene expression of key metabolic enzymes. Here, a computational search approach based on iteratively built hidden Markov models of nuclear receptors was used to identify a human nuclear receptor, termed hPAR, that is expressed in liver and intestines. hPAR was found to be efficiently activated by pregnanes and by clinically used drugs including rifampicin, an antibiotic known to selectively induce human but not murine CYP3A expression. The CYP3A drug-metabolizing enzymes are expressed in gut and liver in response to environmental chemicals and clinically used drugs. Interestingly, hPAR is not activated by pregnenolone 16α-carbonitrile, which is a potent inducer of murine CYP3A genes and an activator of the mouse receptor PXR.1. Furthermore, hPAR was found to bind to and trans-activate through a conserved regulatory sequence present in human but not murine CYP3A genes. These results provide evidence that hPAR and PXR.1 may represent orthologous genes from different species that have evolved to regulate overlapping target genes in response to pharmacologically distinct CYP3A activators, and have potential implications for the in vitro identification of drug interactions important to humans.

The InterPro database, an integrated documentation resource for protein families, domains and functional sites

Signature databases are vital tools for identifying distant relationships in novel sequences and hence for inferring protein function. InterPro is an integrated documentation resource for protein families, domains and functional sites, which amalgamates the efforts of the PROSITE, PRINTS, Pfam and ProDom database projects. Each InterPro entry includes a functional description, annotation, literature references and links back to the relevant member database(s). Release 2.0 of InterPro (October 2000) contains over 3000 entries, representing families, domains, repeats and sites of post-translational modification encoded by a total of 6804 different regular expressions, profiles, fingerprints and Hidden Markov Models. Each InterPro entry lists all the matches against SWISS-PROT and TrEMBL (more than 1 000 000 hits from 462 500 proteins in SWISS-PROT and TrEMBL). The database is accessible for text- and sequence-based searches at http://www.ebi.ac.uk/interpro/. Questions can be emailed to interhelp@ebi.ac.uk.

TIGRFAMs: a protein family resource for the functional identification of proteins

TIGRFAMs is a collection of protein families featuring curated multiple sequence alignments, hidden Markov models and associated information designed to support the automated functional identification of proteins by sequence homology. We introduce the term ‘equivalog’ to describe members of a set of homologous proteins that are conserved with respect to function since their last common ancestor. Related proteins are grouped into equivalog families where possible, and otherwise into protein families with other hierarchically defined homology types. TIGRFAMs currently contains over 800 protein families, available for searching or downloading at www.tigr.org/TIGRFAMs. Classification by equivalog family, where achievable, complements classification by orthology, superfamily, domain or motif. It provides the information best suited for automatic assignment of specific functions to proteins from large-scale genome sequencing projects.

Contexto e modularização em redes neurais recorrentes para aprendizagem de seqüências temporais

Este trabalho apresenta um sistema neural modular, que processa separadamente informações de contexto espacial e temporal, para a tarefa de reprodução de sequências temporais. Para o desenvolvimento do sistema neural foram considerados redes neurais recorrentes, modelos estocásticos, sistemas neurais modulares e processamento de informações de contexto. Em seguida, foram estudados três modelos com abordagens distintas para aprendizagem de seqüências temporais: uma rede neural parcialmente recorrente, um exemplo de sistema neural modular e um modelo estocástico utilizando a teoria de modelos markovianos escondidos. Com base nos estudos e modelos apresentados, esta pesquisa propõe um sistema formado por dois módulos sucessivos distintos. Uma rede de propagação direta (módulo estimador de contexto espacial) realiza o processamento de contexto espacial identificando a seqüência a ser reproduzida e fornecendo um protótipo do contexto para o segundo módulo. Este é formado por uma rede parcialmente recorrente (módulo de reprodução de sequências temporais) para aprender as informações de contexto temporal e reproduzir em suas saídas a seqüência identificada pelo módulo anterior. Para a finalidade mencionada, este mestrado utiliza a distribuição de Gibbs na saída do módulo para contexto espacial de forma que este forneça probabilidades de contexto espacial, indicando o grau de certeza do módulo e possibilitando a utilização de procedimentos especiais para os casos de dúvida. O sistema neural foi testado em conjuntos contendo trajetórias abertas, fechadas, e com diferentes situações de ambigüidade e complexidade. Duas situações distintas foram avaliadas: (a) capacidade do sistema em reproduzir trajetórias a partir de pontos iniciais treinados; e (b) capacidade de generalização do sistema reproduzindo trajetórias considerando pontos iniciais ou finais em situações não treinadas. A situação (b) é um problema de difícil ) solução em redes neurais devido à falta de contexto temporal, essencial na reprodução de seqüências. Foram realizados experimentos comparando o desempenho do sistema modular proposto com o de uma rede parcialmente recorrente operando sozinha e um sistema modular neural (TOTEM). Os resultados sugerem que o sistema proposto apresentou uma capacidade de generalização significamente melhor, sem que houvesse uma deterioração na capacidade de reproduzir seqüências treinadas. Esses resultados foram obtidos em sistema mais simples que o TOTEM.

Forecasting Elections with High Volatility

This article uses data from the social survey Allbus 1998 to introduce a method of forecasting elections in a context of electoral volatility. The approach models the processes of change in electoral behaviour, exploring patterns in order to model the volatility expressed by voters. The forecast is based on the matrix of transition probabilities, following the logic of Markov chains. The power of the matrix, and the use of the mover-stayer model, is debated for alternative forecasts. As an example of high volatility, the model uses data from the German general election of 1998. The unification of two German states in 1990 caused the incorporation of around 15 million new voters from East Germany who had limited familiarity and no direct experience of the political culture in West Germany. Under these circumstances, voters were expected to show high volatility.

Modeling Depression Progression Dynamics from Electronic Health Record

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Identification and analysis of chromodomain-containing proteins encoded in the mouse transcriptome

The chromodomain is 40-50 amino acids in length and is conserved in a wide range of chromatic and regulatory proteins involved in chromatin remodeling. Chromodomain-containing proteins can be classified into families based on their broader characteristics, in particular the presence of other types of domains, and which correlate with different subclasses of the chromodomains themselves. Hidden Markov model (HMM)-generated profiles of different subclasses of chromodomains were used here to identify sequences encoding chromodomain-containing proteins in the mouse transcriptome and genome. A total of 36 different loci encoding proteins containing chromodomains, including 17 novel loci, were identified. Six of these loci (including three apparent pseudogenes, a novel HP1 ortholog, and two novel Msl-3 transcription factor-like proteins) are not present in the human genome, whereas the human genome contains four loci (two CDY orthologs and two apparent CDY pseuclogenes) that are not present in mouse. A number of these loci exhibit alternative splicing to produce different isoforms, including 43 novel variants, some of which lack the chromodomain. The likely functions of these proteins are discussed in relation to the known functions of other chromodomain-containing proteins within the same family.

Predictive vaccinology: Optimisation of predictions using support vector machine classifiers

Promiscuous human leukocyte antigen (HLA) binding peptides are ideal targets for vaccine development. Existing computational models for prediction of promiscuous peptides used hidden Markov models and artificial neural networks as prediction algorithms. We report a system based on support vector machines that outperforms previously published methods. Preliminary testing showed that it can predict peptides binding to HLA-A2 and -A3 super-type molecules with excellent accuracy, even for molecules where no binding data are currently available.