The cost-effectiveness of the MobileMums intervention to increase physical activity among mothers with young children: A Markov model informed by a randomised controlled trial

Objectives: To determine the cost-effectiveness of the MobileMums intervention. MobileMums is a 12-week programme which assists mothers with young children to be more physically active, primarily through the use of personalised SMS text-messages. Design: A cost-effectiveness analysis using a Markov model to estimate and compare the costs and consequences of MobileMums and usual care. Setting: This study considers the cost-effectiveness of MobileMums in Queensland, Australia. Participants: A hypothetical cohort of over 36 000 women with a child under 1 year old is considered. These women are expected to be eligible and willing to participate in the intervention in Queensland, Australia. Data sources: The model was informed by the effectiveness results from a 9-month two-arm community-based randomised controlled trial undertaken in 2011 and registered retrospectively with the Australian Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12611000481976). Baseline characteristics for the model cohort, treatment effects and resource utilisation were all informed by this trial. Main outcome measures: The incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) of MobileMums compared with usual care. Results: The intervention is estimated to lead to an increase of 131 QALYs for an additional cost to the health system of 1.1 million Australian dollars (AUD). The expected incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for MobileMums is 8608 AUD per QALY gained. MobileMums has a 98% probability of being cost-effective at a cost-effectiveness threshold of 64 000 AUD. Varying modelling assumptions has little effect on this result. Conclusions: At a cost-effectiveness threshold of 64 000 AUD, MobileMums would likely be a cost-effective use of healthcare resources in Queensland, Australia. Trial registration number: Australian Clinical Trials Registry; ACTRN12611000481976.

Understanding the organic chain : The framework of the interaction between the actors in organic chains in relation to ecological modernisation of food production

The sustainability of food production has increasingly attracted the attention of consumers, farmers, food and retailing companies, and politicians. One manifestation of such attention is the growing interest in organic foods. Organic agriculture has the potential to enhance the ecological modernisation of food production by implementing the organic method as a preventative innovation that simultaneously produces environmental and economic benefits. However, in addition to the challenges to organic farming, the small market share of organic products in many countries today and Finland in particular risks undermining the achievement of such benefits. The problems identified as hindrances to the increased consumption of organic food are the poor availability, limited variety and high prices of organic products, the complicated buying decisions and the difficulties in delivering the intangible value of organic foods. Small volumes and sporadic markets, high costs, lack of market information, as well as poor supply reliability are obstacles to increasing the volume of organic production and processing. These problems shift the focus from a single actor to the entire supply chain and require solutions that involve more interaction among the actors within the organic chain. As an entity, the organic food chain has received very little scholarly attention. Researchers have mainly approached the organic chain from the perspective of a single actor, or they have described its structure rather than the interaction between the actors. Consequently, interaction among the primary actors in organic chains, i.e. farmers, manufacturers, retailers and consumers, has largely gone unexamined. The purpose of this study is to shed light on the interaction of the primary actors within a whole organic chain in relation to the ecological modernisation of food production. This information is organised into a conceptual framework to help illuminate this complex field. This thesis integrates the theories and concepts of three approaches: food system studies, supply chain management and ecological modernisation. Through a case study, a conceptual system framework will be developed and applied to a real life-situation. The thesis is supported by research published in four articles. All examine the same organic chains through case studies, but each approaches the problem from a different, complementary perspective. The findings indicated that regardless of the coherent values emphasising responsibility, the organic chains were loosely integrated to operate as a system. The focus was on product flow, leaving other aspects of value creation largely aside. Communication with consumers was rare, and none of the actors had taken a leading role in enhancing the market for organic products. Such a situation presents unsuitable conditions for ecological modernisation of food production through organic food and calls for contributions from stakeholders other than those directly involved in the product chain. The findings inspired a revision of the original conceptual framework. The revised framework, the three-layer framework , distinguishes the different layers of interaction. By gradually enlarging the chain orientation the different but interrelated layers become visible. A framework is thus provided for further research and for understanding practical implications of the performance of organic food chains. The revised framework provides both an ideal model for organic chains in relation to ecological modernisation and demonstrates a situation consistent with the empirical evidence.

Regulating supply chains to protect road transport workers: An early assessment of the road safety remuneration tribunal

The Road Safety Remuneration Act 2012 (Cth) (the Act) explicitly enables the Road Safety Remuneration Tribunal to make orders that can impose binding requirements on all the participants in the road transport supply chain, including consignors and consignees at the apex the chain, for the pay and safety of both employee and independent contractor drivers. The tribunal is also specifically empowered to make enforceable orders to reduce or remove remuneration related incentives and pressures that contribute to unsafe work practices in the road transport industry. Recently the tribunal handed down its first order. The article considers whether, and the degree to which, the tribunal has been willing to exercise its explicit power to impose enforceable obligations on consignors and consignees — such as large supermarket chains — at the apex of road transport supply chains. It examines the substance and extent of the obligations imposed by the tribunal, including whether the tribunal has exercised the full range of powers vested in it by the Act. We contend that the tribunal’s first order primarily imposes obligations on direct work providers and drivers without making large, powerful consignors and consignees substantively responsible for driver pay and safety. We argue that the tribunal’s first order could have more comprehensively fulfilled the objectives of the Act by more directly addressing the root causes of low pay and poor safety in the road transport industry.

Bayesian Inference for Retrospective Population Genetics Models Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

Genetics, the science of heredity and variation in living organisms, has a central role in medicine, in breeding crops and livestock, and in studying fundamental topics of biological sciences such as evolution and cell functioning. Currently the field of genetics is under a rapid development because of the recent advances in technologies by which molecular data can be obtained from living organisms. In order that most information from such data can be extracted, the analyses need to be carried out using statistical models that are tailored to take account of the particular genetic processes. In this thesis we formulate and analyze Bayesian models for genetic marker data of contemporary individuals. The major focus is on the modeling of the unobserved recent ancestry of the sampled individuals (say, for tens of generations or so), which is carried out by using explicit probabilistic reconstructions of the pedigree structures accompanied by the gene flows at the marker loci. For such a recent history, the recombination process is the major genetic force that shapes the genomes of the individuals, and it is included in the model by assuming that the recombination fractions between the adjacent markers are known. The posterior distribution of the unobserved history of the individuals is studied conditionally on the observed marker data by using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm (MCMC). The example analyses consider estimation of the population structure, relatedness structure (both at the level of whole genomes as well as at each marker separately), and haplotype configurations. For situations where the pedigree structure is partially known, an algorithm to create an initial state for the MCMC algorithm is given. Furthermore, the thesis includes an extension of the model for the recent genetic history to situations where also a quantitative phenotype has been measured from the contemporary individuals. In that case the goal is to identify positions on the genome that affect the observed phenotypic values. This task is carried out within the Bayesian framework, where the number and the relative effects of the quantitative trait loci are treated as random variables whose posterior distribution is studied conditionally on the observed genetic and phenotypic data. In addition, the thesis contains an extension of a widely-used haplotyping method, the PHASE algorithm, to settings where genetic material from several individuals has been pooled together, and the allele frequencies of each pool are determined in a single genotyping.

Optimal maintenance and replacement via a semi-Markov decision model

Optimal bang-coast maintenance policies for a machine, subject to failure, are considered. The approach utilizes a semi-Markov model for the system. A simplified model for modifying the probability of machine failure with maintenance is employed. A numerical example is presented to illustrate the procedure and results.

Monte Carlo simulation of Ising chains showing several phase transitions

A Monte Carlo simulation of Ising chains with competing short-range and infiniterange interactions has been carried out. Results show that whenever the system does not enter a metastable state, variation of temperature brings about phase transitions in the Ising chain. These phase transitions, except for two sets of interaction strengths, are generally of higher order and involve changes in the long-range order while the short-range order remains unaffected.

Conformation of polypeptide-chains containing both l-residues and D-residues .2. Double-helical structures of poly-ld-peptides

Polypeptides with alternating L- and D-amino acid residues can take up stereochemically satisfactory coaxial double-helical structures, both antiparallel and parallel, which are stabilized by systematic interchain NH O hydrogen bonds. Semiempirical energy calculations over allowed regions of conformational space have yielded the characteristics of these double-helices. There are four possible types of antiparallel double-helices - A3, A4, A5 and A6, with n, the number of LD peptide units per turn, around 2.8, 3.6, 4.5 and 5.5 respectively, while for the parallel double-helices there are two types, P3 and P4, having similar helical parameters as in A3 and A4. The hydrogen-bonding scheme restricts the pitch in all the models to the narrow range of 10.0 to 11.5 Å. All these helices have large central cores whose radii increase proportionately with n. In this respect, A3 and A4 are suitable models for the structure of gramicidin A. In terms of their relative energies, antiparallel double-helices are marginally more stable than those with parallel strands. Our results indicate that the energy differences amongst the members in the antiparallel family are not significant and thus provide an explanation for the polymorphism reported for poly(γ-benzyl-LD-glutamate).

ERAP2 functional knockout in humans does not alter surface heavy chains or HLA-B27, inflammatory cytokines or endoplasmic reticulum stress markers

Introduction Single nucleotide polymorphisms in ERAP2 are strongly associated with ankylosing spondylitis (AS). One AS-associated single nucleotide polymorphism, rs2248374, causes a truncated ERAP2 protein that is degraded by nonsense-mediated decay. Approximately 25% of the populations of European ancestry are therefore natural ERAP2 knockouts. We investigated the effect of this associated variant on HLA class I allele presentation, surface heavy chains, endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress markers and cytokine gene transcription in AS. Methods Patients with AS and healthy controls with either AA or GG homozygous status for rs2248374 were studied. Antibodies to CD14, CD19-ECD, HLA-A-B-C, Valpha7.2, CD161, anti-HC10 and anti-HLA-B27 were used to analyse peripheral blood mononuclear cells. Expression levels of ER stress markers (GRP78 and CHOP) and proinflammatory genes (tumour necrosis factor (TNF), IL6, IL17 and IL22) were assessed by qPCR. Results There was no significant difference in HLAclass I allele presentation or major histocompatibility class I heavy chains or ER stress markers GRP78 and CHOP or proinflammatory gene expression between genotypes for rs2248374 either between cases, between cases and controls, and between controls. Discussion Large differences were not seen in HLAB27 expression or cytokine levels between subjects with and without ERAP2 in AS cases and controls. This suggests that ERAP2 is more likely to influence AS risk through other mechanisms.

Asymptotic analysis of option pricing in a Markov modulated market

We address asymptotic analysis of option pricing in a regime switching market where the risk free interest rate, growth rate and the volatility of the stocks depend on a finite state Markov chain. We study two variations of the chain namely, when the chain is moving very fast compared to the underlying asset price and when it is moving very slow. Using quadratic hedging and asymptotic expansion, we derive corrections on the locally risk minimizing option price.

Direct probe of end-segment distribution in tethered polymer chains

End-tethered chains made of an adsorbed diblock copolymer of polystyrene (PS)-polyisoprene (PI) bearing an end-segment including a Ge atom are built by the Langmuir-Schaeffer technique. They are studied both in the dry state and in a good solvent for the PI chain using grazing incidence X-ray standing waves. The analysis of the signal provides a direct measurement of the end-segment distribution which is found to be singular and mostly localized to a plane in the dry case. In the good solvent case, end-segments are found to span the entire assembly and compare very well with results obtained by Kreer et al.

Effect of surfactants on the fluorescence spectra of water-soluble MEHPPV derivatives having grafted polyelectrolyte chains

Poly(2-methoxy-5-[2'-ethylhexyoxy]-1,4-phenylenevinylene) (MEHPPV) derivatives with polyacrylic acid (PAA) chains grafted onto their backbone were found to be water soluble, and they exhibited a dramatic increase in their fluorescence intensity in the presence of a variety of surfactants, even at concentrations far below their critical micelle concentrations (CMC). This increase was accompanied by a blue-shift in the emission maximum. These observations are rationalized based on the postulate that the backbone conformation of the conjugated polymer is modulated upon interaction of the surfactant molecules with the polyelectrolytic tethers, which in turn results in a significant depletion of intra-chain interchromophore interactions that are known to cause red-shifted emission bands with significantly lower emission yields.

Propargyloxycarbonyl as a protecting group for the side chains of serine, threonine and tyrosine

Propargyloxycarbonyl group is used as a protecting group for the hydroxyl groups of serine, threonine and tyrosine. The propargyloxycarbonyl derivatives of these hydroxy amino acids are stable to acidic and basic reagents commonly employed in peptide synthesis. The deprotection of the O-Poc derivatives using tetrathiomolybdate does not affect commonly used protecting groups such as N-Boc, N-Cbz, N-Fmoc, methyl and benzyl esters. The di-and tripeptides synthesized using O-Poc derivatives of serine, threonine and tyrosine are stable, isolable compounds and give the hydroxy peptides in good yields when treated with tetrathiomolybdate.

Control aspects in proportionality Markov manpower systems

In this paper, the control aspects of a hierarchical organization under the influence of "proportionality" policies are analyzed. Proportionality policies are those that restrict the recruitment to every level of the hierarchy (except the bottom most level or base level) to be in strict proportion to the promotions into that level. Both long term and short term control analysis have been discussed. In long term control the specific roles of the parameters of the system with regard to control of the shape and size of the system have been analyzed and yield suitable control strategies. In short term control, the attainability of a target or goal structure within a specific time from a given initial structure has been analyzed and yields the required recruitment strategies. The theoretical analyses have been illustrated with computational examples and also with real world data.

Control aspects in proportionality Markov manpower systems

In this paper, the control aspects of a hierarchical organization under the influence of "proportionality" policies are analyzed. Proportionality policies are those that restrict the recruitment to every level of the hierarchy (except the bottom most level or base level) to be in strict proportion to the promotions into that level. Both long term and short term control analysis have been discussed. In long term control the specific roles of the parameters of the system with regard to control of the shape and size of the system have been analyzed and yield suitable control strategies. In short term control, the attainability of a target or goal structure within a specific time from a given initial structure has been analyzed and yields the required recruitment strategies. The theoretical analyses have been illustrated with computational examples and also with real world data. The control of such proportionality systems is then compared with that of the general systems (which do not follow such policies) with some significant conclusions. The control relations of such proportionality systems are found to be simpler and more practically feasible than those of general Markov systems, which do not have such restrictions. Such proportionality systems thus not only retain and match the flexibility of general Markov systems but also have the added advantage of simpler and more practically feasible controls. The proportionality policies hence act as an alternative and more practicably feasible means of control. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.