916 resultados para Logistic regression mixture models


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OBJECTIVES: Hypoglycaemia (glucose <2.2 mmol/l) is a defining feature of severe malaria, but the significance of other levels of blood glucose has not previously been studied in children with severe malaria. METHODS: A prospective study of 437 consecutive children with presumed severe malaria was conducted in Mali. We defined hypoglycaemia as <2.2 mmol/l, low glycaemia as 2.2-4.4 mmol/l and hyperglycaemia as >8.3 mmol/l. Associations between glycaemia and case fatality were analysed for 418 children using logistic regression models and a receiver operator curve (ROC). RESULTS: There was a significant difference between blood glucose levels in children who died (median 4.6 mmol/l) and survivors (median 7.6 mmol/l, P < 0.001). Case fatality declined from 61.5% of the hypoglycaemic children to 46.2% of those with low glycaemia, 13.4% of those with normal glycaemia and 7.6% of those with hyperglycaemia (P < 0.001). Logistic regression showed an adjusted odds ratio (AOR) of 0.75 (0.64-0.88) for case fatality per 1 mmol/l increase in baseline blood glucose. Compared to a normal blood glucose, hypoglycaemia and low glycaemia both significantly increased the odds of death (AOR 11.87, 2.10-67.00; and 5.21, 1.86-14.63, respectively), whereas hyperglycaemia reduced the odds of death (AOR 0.34, 0.13-0.91). The ROC [area under the curve at 0.753 (95% CI 0.684-0.820)] indicated that glycaemia had a moderate predictive value for death and identified an optimal threshold at glycaemia <6.1 mmol/l, (sensitivity 64.5% and specificity 75.1%). CONCLUSIONS: If there is a threshold of blood glucose which defines a worse prognosis, it is at a higher level than the current definition of 2.2 mmol/l.

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Background: Analyzing social differences in the health of adolescents is a challenge. The accuracy of adolescent's report on familial socio-economic position is unknown. The aims of the study were to examine the validity of measuring occupational social class and family level of education reported by adolescents aged 12 to 18, and the relationship between social position and self-reported health.Methods: A sample of 1453 Spanish adolescents 12 to 18 years old from urban and rural areas completed a self-administered questionnaire including the Child Health and Illness Profile-Adolescent Edition (CHIP-AE), and data on parental occupational social class (OSC) and level of education (LE). The responsible person for a sub-sample of teenagers (n = 91) were interviewed by phone. Kappa coefficients were estimated to analyze agreement between adolescents and proxy-respondents, and logistic regression models were adjusted to analyze factors associated with missing answers and disagreements. Effect size (ES) was calculated to analyze the relationship between OSC, LE and the CHIP-AE domain scores.Results: Missing answers were higher for father's (24.2%) and mother's (45.7%) occupational status than for parental education (8.4%, and 8.1% respectively), and belonging to a non-standard family was associated with more incomplete reporting of social position (OR = 4,98; 95%CI = 1,3–18,8) as was agreement between a parent and the adolescent. There were significant social class gradients, most notably for aspects of health related to resilience to threats to illness.ConclusionAdolescents can acceptably self-report on family occupation and level of education. Social class gradients are present in important aspects of health in adolescents.

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OBJECTIVES: The objectives were to identify the social and medical factors associated with emergency department (ED) frequent use and to determine if frequent users were more likely to have a combination of these factors in a universal health insurance system. METHODS: This was a retrospective chart review case-control study comparing randomized samples of frequent users and nonfrequent users at the Lausanne University Hospital, Switzerland. The authors defined frequent users as patients with four or more ED visits within the previous 12 months. Adult patients who visited the ED between April 2008 and March 2009 (study period) were included, and patients leaving the ED without medical discharge were excluded. For each patient, the first ED electronic record within the study period was considered for data extraction. Along with basic demographics, variables of interest included social (employment or housing status) and medical (ED primary diagnosis) characteristics. Significant social and medical factors were used to construct a logistic regression model, to determine factors associated with frequent ED use. In addition, comparison of the combination of social and medical factors was examined. RESULTS: A total of 359 of 1,591 frequent and 360 of 34,263 nonfrequent users were selected. Frequent users accounted for less than a 20th of all ED patients (4.4%), but for 12.1% of all visits (5,813 of 48,117), with a maximum of 73 ED visits. No difference in terms of age or sex occurred, but more frequent users had a nationality other than Swiss or European (n = 117 [32.6%] vs. n = 83 [23.1%], p = 0.003). Adjusted multivariate analysis showed that social and specific medical vulnerability factors most increased the risk of frequent ED use: being under guardianship (adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 15.8; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.7 to 147.3), living closer to the ED (adjusted OR = 4.6; 95% CI = 2.8 to 7.6), being uninsured (adjusted OR = 2.5; 95% CI = 1.1 to 5.8), being unemployed or dependent on government welfare (adjusted OR = 2.1; 95% CI = 1.3 to 3.4), the number of psychiatric hospitalizations (adjusted OR = 4.6; 95% CI = 1.5 to 14.1), and the use of five or more clinical departments over 12 months (adjusted OR = 4.5; 95% CI = 2.5 to 8.1). Having two of four social factors increased the odds of frequent ED use (adjusted = OR 5.4; 95% CI = 2.9 to 9.9), and similar results were found for medical factors (adjusted OR = 7.9; 95% CI = 4.6 to 13.4). A combination of social and medical factors was markedly associated with ED frequent use, as frequent users were 10 times more likely to have three of them (on a total of eight factors; 95% CI = 5.1 to 19.6). CONCLUSIONS: Frequent users accounted for a moderate proportion of visits at the Lausanne ED. Social and medical vulnerability factors were associated with frequent ED use. In addition, frequent users were more likely to have both social and medical vulnerabilities than were other patients. Case management strategies might address the vulnerability factors of frequent users to prevent inequities in health care and related costs.

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The association between adiposity measures and dyslipidemia has seldom been assessed in a multipopulational setting. 27 populations from Europe, Australia, New Zealand and Canada (WHO MONICA project) using health surveys conducted between 1990 and 1997 in adults aged 35-64 years (n = 40,480). Dyslipidemia was defined as the total/HDL cholesterol ratio >6 (men) and >5 (women). Overall prevalence of dyslipidemia was 25% in men and 23% in women. Logistic regression showed that dyslipidemia was strongly associated with body mass index (BMI) in men and with waist circumference (WC) in women, after adjusting for region, age and smoking. Among normal-weight men and women (BMI<25 kg/m(2)), an increase in the odds for being dyslipidemic was observed between lowest and highest WC quartiles (OR = 3.6, p < 0.001). Among obese men (BMI ≥ 30), the corresponding increase was smaller (OR = 1.2, p = 0.036). A similar weakening was observed among women. Classification tree analysis was performed to assign subjects into classes of risk for dyslipidemia. BMI thresholds (25.4 and 29.2 kg/m(2)) in men and WC thresholds (81.7 and 92.6 cm) in women came out at first stages. High WC (>84.8 cm) in normal-weight men, menopause in women and regular smoking further defined subgroups at increased risk. standard categories of BMI and WC, or their combinations, do not lead to optimal risk stratification for dyslipidemia in middle-age adults. Sex-specific adaptations are necessary, in particular by taking into account abdominal obesity in normal-weight men, post-menopausal age in women and regular smoking in both sexes.

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BACKGROUND: Leprosy is characterized by a spectrum of clinical manifestations that depend on the type of immune response against the pathogen. Patients may undergo immunological changes known as "reactional states" (reversal reaction and erythema nodosum leprosum) that result in major clinical deterioration. The goal of the present study was to assess the effect of Toll-like receptor 2 (TLR2) polymorphisms on susceptibility to and clinical presentation of leprosy. METHODS: Three polymorphisms in TLR2 (597C--&gt;T, 1350T--&gt;C, and a microsatellite marker) were analyzed in 431 Ethiopian patients with leprosy and 187 control subjects. The polymorphism-associated risk of developing leprosy, lepromatous (vs. tuberculoid) leprosy, and leprosy reactions was assessed by multivariate logistic regression models. RESULTS: The microsatellite and the 597C--&gt;T polymorphisms both influenced susceptibility to reversal reaction. Although the 597T allele had a protective effect (odds ratio [OR], 0.34 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.17-0.68]; P= .002 under the dominant model), homozygosity for the 280-bp allelic length of the microsatellite strongly increased the risk of reversal reaction (OR, 5.83 [95% CI, 1.98-17.15]; P= .001 under the recessive model). These associations were consistent among 3 different ethnic groups. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest a significant role for TLR-2 in the occurrence of leprosy reversal reaction and provide new insights into the immunogenetics of the disease.

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OBJECTIVES: To compare the use of guideline-recommended medical and interventional therapies in older and younger patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACSs). DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Fifty-five hospitals in Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: Eleven thousand nine hundred thirty-two patients with ACS enrolled between March 1, 2001, and June 30, 2006. ACS definition included ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI), and unstable angina pectoris (UA). MEASUREMENTS: Use of medical and interventional therapies was determined after exclusion of patients with contraindications and after adjustment for comorbidities. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) per year increase in age. RESULTS: Elderly patients were less likely to receive acetylsalicylic acid (OR=0.976, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.969-0.980) or beta-blockers (OR=0.985, 95% CI=0.981-0.989). No age-dependent difference was found for heparin use. Elderly patients with STEMI were less likely to receive percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or thrombolysis (OR=0.955, 95% CI=0.949-0.961). Elderly patients with NSTEMI or UA less often underwent PCI (OR=0.943, 95% CI=0.937-0.949). CONCLUSION: Elderly patients across the whole spectrum of ACS were less likely to receive guideline-recommended therapies, even after adequate adjustment for comorbidities. Prognosis of elderly patients with ACS may be improved by increasing adherence to guideline-recommended medical and interventional therapies.

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BACKGROUND: Non-adherence is one of the strongest predictors of therapeutic failure in HIV-positive patients. Virologic failure with subsequent emergence of resistance reduces future treatment options and long-term clinical success. METHODS: Prospective observational cohort study including patients starting new class of antiretroviral therapy (ART) between 2003 and 2010. Participants were naïve to ART class and completed ≥1 adherence questionnaire prior to resistance testing. Outcomes were development of any IAS-USA, class-specific, or M184V mutations. Associations between adherence and resistance were estimated using logistic regression models stratified by ART class. RESULTS: Of 314 included individuals, 162 started NNRTI and 152 a PI/r regimen. Adherence was similar between groups with 85% reporting adherence ≥95%. Number of new mutations increased with increasing non-adherence. In NNRTI group, multivariable models indicated a significant linear association in odds of developing IAS-USA (odds ratio (OR) 1.66, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04-2.67) or class-specific (OR 1.65, 95% CI: 1.00-2.70) mutations. Levels of drug resistance were considerably lower in PI/r group and adherence was only significantly associated with M184V mutations (OR 8.38, 95% CI: 1.26-55.70). Adherence was significantly associated with HIV RNA in PI/r but not NNRTI regimens. CONCLUSION: Therapies containing PI/r appear more forgiving to incomplete adherence compared with NNRTI regimens, which allow higher levels of resistance, even with adherence above 95%. However, in failing PI/r regimens good adherence may prevent accumulation of further resistance mutations and therefore help to preserve future drug options. In contrast, adherence levels have little impact on NNRTI treatments once the first mutations have emerged.

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Background Folate deficiency leads to DNA damage and inadequate repair, caused by a decreased synthesis of thymidylate and purines. We analyzed the relationship between dietary folate intake and the risk of several cancers. Patients and methods The study is based on a network of case-control studies conducted in Italy and Switzerland in 1991-2009. The odds ratios (ORs) for dietary folate intake were estimated by multiple logistic regression models, adjusted for major identified confounding factors. Results For a few cancer sites, we found a significant inverse relation, with ORs for an increment of 100 μg/day of dietary folate of 0.65 for oropharyngeal (1467 cases), 0.58 for esophageal (505 cases), 0.83 for colorectal (2390 cases), 0.72 for pancreatic (326 cases), 0.67 for laryngeal (851 cases) and 0.87 for breast (3034 cases) cancers. The risk estimates were below unity, although not significantly, for cancers of the endometrium (OR = 0.87, 454 cases), ovary (OR = 0.86, 1031 cases), prostate (OR = 0.91, 1468 cases) and kidney (OR = 0.88, 767 cases), and was 1.00 for stomach cancer (230 cases). No material heterogeneity was found in strata of sex, age, smoking and alcohol drinking. Conclusions Our data support a real inverse association of dietary folate intake with the risk of several common cancers.

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Diabetes has been associated to the risk of a few cancer sites, though quantification of this association in various populations remains open to discussion. We analyzed the relation between diabetes and the risk of various cancers in an integrated series of case-control studies conducted in Italy and Switzerland between 1991 and 2009. The studies included 1,468 oral and pharyngeal, 505 esophageal, 230 gastric, 2,390 colorectal, 185 liver, 326 pancreatic, 852 laryngeal, 3,034 breast, 607 endometrial, 1,031 ovarian, 1,294 prostate, and 767 renal cell cancer cases and 12,060 hospital controls. The multivariate odds ratios (OR) for subjects with diabetes as compared to those without-adjusted for major identified confounding factors for the cancers considered through logistic regression models-were significantly elevated for cancers of the oral cavity/pharynx (OR = 1.58), esophagus (OR = 2.52), colorectum (OR = 1.23), liver (OR = 3.52), pancreas (OR = 3.32), postmenopausal breast (OR = 1.76), and endometrium (OR = 1.70). For cancers of the oral cavity, esophagus, colorectum, liver, and postmenopausal breast, the excess risk persisted over 10 yr since diagnosis of diabetes. Our data confirm and further quantify the association of diabetes with colorectal, liver, pancreatic, postmenopausal breast, and endometrial cancer and suggest forthe first time that diabetes may also increase the risk of oral/pharyngeal and esophageal cancer. [Table: see text] [Table: see text].

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BACKGROUND: Replicative phenotypic HIV resistance testing (rPRT) uses recombinant infectious virus to measure viral replication in the presence of antiretroviral drugs. Due to its high sensitivity of detection of viral minorities and its dissecting power for complex viral resistance patterns and mixed virus populations rPRT might help to improve HIV resistance diagnostics, particularly for patients with multiple drug failures. The aim was to investigate whether the addition of rPRT to genotypic resistance testing (GRT) compared to GRT alone is beneficial for obtaining a virological response in heavily pre-treated HIV-infected patients. METHODS: Patients with resistance tests between 2002 and 2006 were followed within the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). We assessed patients' virological success after their antiretroviral therapy was switched following resistance testing. Multilevel logistic regression models with SHCS centre as a random effect were used to investigate the association between the type of resistance test and virological response (HIV-1 RNA <50 copies/mL or ≥1.5 log reduction). RESULTS: Of 1158 individuals with resistance tests 221 with GRT+rPRT and 937 with GRT were eligible for analysis. Overall virological response rates were 85.1% for GRT+rPRT and 81.4% for GRT. In the subgroup of patients with >2 previous failures, the odds ratio (OR) for virological response of GRT+rPRT compared to GRT was 1.45 (95% CI 1.00-2.09). Multivariate analyses indicate a significant improvement with GRT+rPRT compared to GRT alone (OR 1.68, 95% CI 1.31-2.15). CONCLUSIONS: In heavily pre-treated patients rPRT-based resistance information adds benefit, contributing to a higher rate of treatment success.

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PURPOSE To develop a score predicting the risk of adverse events (AEs) in pediatric patients with cancer who experience fever and neutropenia (FN) and to evaluate its performance. PATIENTS AND METHODS Pediatric patients with cancer presenting with FN induced by nonmyeloablative chemotherapy were observed in a prospective multicenter study. A score predicting the risk of future AEs (ie, serious medical complication, microbiologically defined infection, radiologically confirmed pneumonia) was developed from a multivariate mixed logistic regression model. Its cross-validated predictive performance was compared with that of published risk prediction rules. Results An AE was reported in 122 (29%) of 423 FN episodes. In 57 episodes (13%), the first AE was known only after reassessment after 8 to 24 hours of inpatient management. Predicting AE at reassessment was better than prediction at presentation with FN. A differential leukocyte count did not increase the predictive performance. The score predicting future AE in 358 episodes without known AE at reassessment used the following four variables: preceding chemotherapy more intensive than acute lymphoblastic leukemia maintenance (weight = 4), hemoglobin > or = 90 g/L (weight = 5), leukocyte count less than 0.3 G/L (weight = 3), and platelet count less than 50 G/L (weight = 3). A score (sum of weights) > or = 9 predicted future AEs. The cross-validated performance of this score exceeded the performance of published risk prediction rules. At an overall sensitivity of 92%, 35% of the episodes were classified as low risk, with a specificity of 45% and a negative predictive value of 93%. CONCLUSION This score, based on four routinely accessible characteristics, accurately identifies pediatric patients with cancer with FN at risk for AEs after reassessment.

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Background: Evidence for a better performance of different highly atherogenic versus traditional lipid parameters for coronary heart disease (CHD) risk prediction is conflicting. We investigated the association of the ratios of sma11 dense low density lipoprotein(LDL)/apoplipoprotein A, aolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I and total cholesterol! HDL-cholesterol and CHD events in patients on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART).Methods: Case control study nested into the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: for each cART-treated patient with a first coronary event between April 1, 2000 and July 31, 2008 (case) we selected four control patients (1) that were without coronary events until the date of the event of the index case, (2) had a plasma sample within ±30 days of the sample date of the respective case, (3) received cART and (4) were then matched for age, gender and smoking status. Lipoproteins were measured by ultracentrifugation. Conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate the independent effects of different lipid ratios and the occurrence of coronary events.Results: In total, 98 cases (19 fatal myocardial infarctions [MI] and 79 non-fatal coronary events [53 definite MIs, 15 possible MIs and 11 coronary angioplasties or bypassesJ) were matched with 392 controls. Cases were more often injecting drug users, less likely to be virologically suppressed and more often on abacavir-containing regimens. In separa te multivariable models of total cholesterol, triglycerides, HDL-cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, abdominal obesity, diabetes and family history of CHD, small dense-LDL and apolipoprotein B were each statistically significantly associated with CHD events (for 1 mg/dl increase: odds ratio [OR] 1.05, 95% CI 1.00-1.11 and 1.15, 95% CI 1.01-1.31, respectively), but the ratiosof small dense-LDLlapolipoprotein A-I (OR 1.26, 95% CI 0.95-1.67), apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I (OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.97-1.07) and HDL-cholesterol! total cholesterol (OR 0.99 95% CI 0.98-1.00) were not. Following adjustment for HIV related and cART variables these associations were weakened in each model: apolipoprotein B (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.00-1.30), sd-LDL (OR 1.04, 95% CI 0.99-1.20), small dense-LDLlapolipoprotein A-I (OR 1.17, 95% CI 0.87-1.58), apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I (OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.97-1.07) and total cholesterolJHDL- cholesterol (OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.99-1.00).Conclusions: In patients receiving cART, small dense-LDL and apolipoprotein B showed the strongest associations with CHD events in models controlling for traditional CHD risk factors including total cholesterol and triglycerides. Adding small dense LDLlapoplipoprotein A-l, apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I and total cholesterol! HDL-cholesterol ratios did not further improve models of lipid parameters and associations of increased risk for CHD events.

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Switzerland has the lowest adolescent fertility rate in Western Europe. According to data collected in 1993 as part of the Swiss Multicentre Adolescent Survey on Health, 5% of 1,726 sexually active adolescents in a group of 3,993 15-20-year-old women enrolled in academic or vocational classes had ever been pregnant; most of these women (80%) had terminated their pregnancy. Adolescents who had ever been pregnant did not differ significantly from those who had not by demographic characteristics. Multiple logistic regression analysis identified seven factors associated with pregnancy: having had four or more sexual partners; not having used contraceptives at first intercourse; ever use of less-effective contraceptive methods; having used illicit drugs during the last 30 days; living apart from one's parents; recently experiencing stress; and perceiving a lack of future prospects.

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O impacto das espécies exóticas e a sua acção nociva sobre a flora nativa torna-se especialmente preocupante em ecossistemas insulares degradados. Tendo em conta a preservação e conservação da biodiversidade das ilhas de Cabo Verde pretende-se com este estudo avaliar o impacto que algumas espécies exóticas exercem sobre os ecossistemas naturais, tendo como modelo de estudo a maior ilha do arquipélago, a ilha de Santiago. Faz-se inicialmente uma breve caracterização da flora exótica do arquipélago, estimada em 397 taxa, tendo em conta o tipo biológico, origem biogeográfica, tipo de utilização, distribuição pelas ilhas e ecologia. Com o objectivo de melhor compreender como a distribuição das espécies exóticas pode evoluir na ilha de Santiago, procedeu-se à modelação de quatro espécies com características invasoras (Bidens bipinnata, Euphorbia heterophylla, Furcraea foetida e Lantana camara) usando metodologias de regressão logística. Os modelos produzidos permitiram a produção de mapas de probabilidade de ocorrência das espécies em estudo, utilizando para isso sistemas de informação geográfica. A aplicação destes métodos permitiu por um lado conhecer algumas das variáveis que afectam a distribuição das espécies exóticas (e.g. precipitação; NDVI; exposição NE; distância às ribeiras; altitude), e por outro lado, produzir mapas da ilha de Santiago, que permitiram revelar quais as zonas com maior probabilidade de ocorrência dessas espécies. Os nossos resultados indicam que as zonas de altitude (e.g. Serra do Pico da Antónia; Monte Graciosa; Serra da Malagueta) são especialmente vulneráveis à ocorrência de espécies invasoras, o que se torna particularmente preocupante pois correspondem a zonas demarcadas como áreas protegidas, sendo locais primordiais de distribuição para a flora endémica do arquipélago. Por fim, sugerem-se algumas medidas de gestão e controlo de espécies invasoras de modo a que a sua implementação permita que num futuro, que se espera próximo, recuperar estes ecossistemas insulares que se encontram muito degradados.

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O álcool é a substância mais consumida pelos adolescentes e jovens, e a idade do início e o padrão de consumo têm sido uma das preocupações, particularmente, dos sectores da saúde e da educação. Este consumo está associado a um conjunto de consequências negativas para a vida do adolescente, entre as quais a dificuldade de aprendizagem e o baixo rendimento escolar. Portanto, a prevenção do consumo de álcool nas escolas, constitui uma via consensual para tentar controlar o problema. Esta dissertação tem como objectivo conhecer o padrão de consumo de álcool dos alunos do ensino secundário em São Vicente (Cabo Verde) e estudar a sua relação com o insucesso escolar. Aplicámos um questionário anónimo a uma amostra de 500 alunos, com idade entre 12 e 21 anos, das 5 escolas secundárias públicas da ilha. Após uma análise exploratória dos dados e uma análise univariada verificou-se que o consumo de álcool podia estar relacionado com o insucesso escolar. Neste sentido, construímos modelos de regressão logística para estudar tal relação. Os resultados evidenciam que o primeiro contacto com o álcool ocorre numa idade precoce e o padrão de consumo, genericamente, varia em função da faixa etária e do género. Entretanto, independentemente do género e da faixa etária, o consumo ocorre fundamentalmente aos fins – de – semana e na companhia dos amigos. Após o controlo dos factores de confusão, o consumo de álcool permaneceu como um factor de risco para o insucesso escolar e verificámos que a probabilidade de um aluno ter insucesso escolar aumenta com a frequência de consumo. Os resultados do estudo alertam para a necessidade de uma intervenção de toda a comunidade educativa e dos sectores da saúde no sentido de implementar medidas que visem o combate ao consumo de álcool entre os alunos, e adolescentes de uma forma geral.