Bayesian ratemaking procedure of crop insurance contracts with skewed distribution

Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.

Sudden onset of log-periodicity and superdiffusion in non-Markovian random walks with amnestically induced persistence: exact results

Random walks can undergo transitions from normal diffusion to anomalous diffusion as some relevant parameter varies, for instance the L,vy index in L,vy flights. Here we derive the Fokker-Planck equation for a two-parameter family of non-Markovian random walks with amnestically induced persistence. We investigate two distinct transitions: one order parameter quantifies log-periodicity and discrete scale invariance in the first moment of the propagator, whereas the second order parameter, known as the Hurst exponent, describes the growth of the second moment. We report numerical and analytical results for six critical exponents, which together completely characterize the properties of the transitions. We find that the critical exponents related to the diffusion-superdiffusion transition are identical in the positive feedback and negative feedback branches of the critical line, even though the former leads to classical superdiffusion whereas the latter gives rise to log-periodic superdiffusion.

Evaluation of the Experimental Inoculation of Cryptococcus albidus and Cryptococcus laurentii in Normal Mice: Virulence Factors and Molecular Profile Before and After Animal Passage

The genus Cryptococcus includes free-developing species, a few of which are of medical importance. Some, such as C. neoformans and C. gattii, cause infections in man frequently and C. albidus and C. laurentii cause less so. The aims of this study were to evaluate organ colonization after inoculation of C. albidus and C. laurentii isolates in normal BALB/c mice, the virulence factors (growth at 37A degrees C, capsule, melanin, proteinase, and phospholipase production) and the molecular profile (PCR-fingerprinting) of the yeasts before and after infection. The importance of different profiles (virulence and molecular) was considered in relation to the distribution in different organs and to the time intervals of isolation from organs. C. albidus was isolated from animal organs 2 to 10 days after inoculation and C. laurentii from 2 to 120 days. Most isolates of the two species kept the virulence factors showed before inoculation. The high homogeneity of the molecular profile of C. albidus and the high heterogeneity of C. laurentii were kept through the passages in animals. It is concluded that most isolates of both species were recovered from the animal organs after 5 or more days, and phenotypes were not altered by inoculation. No molecular alteration was detected and the virulence factors were not related to the time intervals before isolation from organs.

Distribution of transferrin saturation in an Australian population: Relevance to the early diagnosis of hemochromatosis

Background & Aims: An elevated transferrin saturation is the earliest phenotypic abnormality in hereditary hemochromatosis. Determination of transferrin saturation remains the most useful noninvasive screening test for affected individuals, but there is debate as to the appropriate screening level. The aims of this study were to estimate the mean transferrin saturation in hemochromatosis heterozygotes and normal individuals and to evaluate potential transferrin saturation screening levels. Methods: Statistical mixture modeling was applied to data from a survey of asymptomatic Australians to estimate the mean transferrin saturation in hemochromatosis heterozygotes and normal individuals. To evaluate potential transferrin saturation screening levels, modeling results were compared with data from identified hemochromatosis heterozygotes and homozygotes. Results: After removal of hemochromatosis homozygotes, two populations of transferrin saturation were identified in asymptomatic Australians (P < 0.01). In men, 88.2% of the truncated sample had a lower mean transferrin saturation of 24.1%, whereas 11.8% had an increased mean transferrin saturation of 37.3%. Similar results were found in women, A transferrin saturation threshold of 45% identified 98% of homozygotes without misidentifying any normal individuals. Conclusions: The results confirm that hemochromatosis heterozygotes form a distinct transferrin saturation subpopulation and support the use of transferrin saturation as an inexpensive screening test for hemochromatosis. In practice, a fasting transferrin saturation of greater than or equal to 45% identifies virtually all affected homozygous subjects without necessitating further investigation of unaffected normal individuals.

A H-1 MRS study of probable Alzheimer's disease and normal aging: Implications for longitudinal monitoring of dementia progression

In order to evaluate the capability of H-1 MRS to monitor longitudinal changes in subjects with probable Alzheimer's disease (AD), the temporal stability of the metabolite measures N-acetylaspartate and N-acetylas-partylglutamate (NA), total Creatine (Cr), myo-Inositol (mI), total Choline (Chol), NA/Cr, mI/Cr, Chol/Cr and NA/mI were investigated in a cohort of normal older adults. Only the metabolite measures NA, mi, Cr, NA/Cr, mI/Cr, and NA/mI were found to be stable after a mean interval of 260 days. Relative and absolute metabolite measures from a cohort of patients with probable AD were subsequently compared with data from a sample of normal older adult control subjects, and correlated with mental status and the degree of atrophy in the localized voxel. Concentrations of NA, NA/Cr, and NA/mI were significantly reduced in the AD group with concomitant significant increases in mi and mI/Cr. There were no differences between the two groups in measures of Cr, Chol, or Chol/Cr. Significant correlations between mental status as measured by the Mini-Mental State Examination and NA/mI, mI/Cr and NA were found. These metabolite measures were also significantly correlated with the extent of atrophy (as measured by CSF and GM composition) in the spectroscopy voxel. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc.

Robust Mixture Modelling Using the t Distribution

Normal mixture models are being increasingly used to model the distributions of a wide variety of random phenomena and to cluster sets of continuous multivariate data. However, for a set of data containing a group or groups of observations with longer than normal tails or atypical observations, the use of normal components may unduly affect the fit of the mixture model. In this paper, we consider a more robust approach by modelling the data by a mixture of t distributions. The use of the ECM algorithm to fit this t mixture model is described and examples of its use are given in the context of clustering multivariate data in the presence of atypical observations in the form of background noise.

Standard Values for Real-Time Transthoracic Three-Dimensional Echocardiographic Dyssynchrony Indexes in a Normal Population

Background: There is a paucity of information describing the real-time 3-dimensional echocardiography (RT3DE) and dyssynchrony indexes (DIs) of a normal population. We evaluate the RT3DE DIs in a population with normal electrocardiograms and 2- and 3-dimensional echocardiographic analyses. This information is relevant for cardiac resynchronization therapy. Methods: We evaluated 131 healthy volunteers (73 were male, aged 46 +/- 14 years) who were referred for routine echocardiography; who presented normal cardiac structure on electrocardiography, 2-dimensional echocardiography, and RT3DE; and who had no history of cardiac diseases. We analyzed 3-dimensional left ventricular ejection fraction, left ventricle end-diastolic volume, left ventricle end-systolic volume, and left ventricular systolic DI% (6-, 12-, and 16-segment models). RT3DE data were analyzed by quantifying the statistical distribution (mean, median, standard deviation [SD], relative SD, coefficient of skewness, coefficient of kurtosis, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, D`Agostino-Pearson test, percentiles, and 95% confidence interval). Results: Left ventricular ejection fraction ranged from 50% to 80% (66.1% +/- 7.1%); left ventricle end-diastolic volume ranged from 39.8 to 145 mL (79.1 +/- 24.9 mL); left ventricle end-systolic volume ranged from 12.9 to 66 mL (27 +/- 12.1 mL); 6-segment DI% ranged from 0.20% to 3.80% (1.21% +/- 0.66%), median: 1.06, relative SD: 0.5482, coefficient of skewness: 1.2620 (P < .0001), coefficient of Kurtosis: 1.9956 (P = .0039); percentile 2.5%: 0.2900, percentile 97.5%: 2.8300; 12-segment DI% ranged from 0.22% to 4.01% (1.29% +/- 0.71%), median: 1.14, relative SD: 0.95, coefficient of skewness: 1.1089 (P < .0001), coefficient of Kurtosis: 1.6372 (P = .0100), percentile 2.5%: 0.2850, percentile 97.5%: 3.0700; and 16-segment DI% ranged from 0.29% to 4.88% (1.59 +/- 0.99), median: 1.39, relative SD: 0.56, coefficient of skewness: 1.0792 (P < .0001), coefficient of Kurtosis: 0.9248 (P = .07), percentile 2.5%: 0.3750, percentile 97.5%: 3.750. Conclusion: This study allows for the quantification of RT3DE DIs in normal subjects, providing a comparison for patients with heart failure who may be candidates for cardiac resynchronization therapy. (J Am Soc Echocardiogr 2008; 21: 1229-1235)

The degree of external genitalia virilization in girls with 21-hydroxylase deficiency appears to be influenced by the CAG repeats in the androgen receptor gene

Background Women with 21-hydroxylase deficiency present much variability in external genitalia virilization, even among those with similar impairments of 21-hydroxylase (21OH) activity. Objective To evaluate if the number of CAG (nCAG) repeats of the androgen receptor gene influences the degree of external genitalia virilization in women with CYP21A2 mutations, grouped according to impairment of 21OH activity. Patients The nCAG was determined in 106 congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH) patients and in 302 controls. The patients were divided, according to their CYP21A2 genotypes, into Groups A and B, which confer total and severe impairment of 21OH activity, respectively. Methods The inactivation pattern of the X-chromosome was studied through genomic DNA digestion with Hpa II. The CAG repeat region was amplified by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and analysed by GeneScan. Results The nCAG and the frequency of severe skewed X-inactivation did not differ between normal women and patients. The nCAG median in genotype A was 20.7 (IQR 2.3) for Prader I + II, 22.5 (3.6) for Prader III and 21 (2.9) for Prader IV + V (P < 0.05 for Prader III and Prader IV + V). The nCAG median in genotype B was 21.3 (1.1) for Prader I + II, 20.5 (2.9) for Prader III and 22 (2.8) for Prader IV + V (P > 0.05). A significant difference was found regarding the nCAG median in patients presenting Prader III from genotypes A and B. Conclusions We observed great variability in the degree of external genitalia virilization in both CYP21A2 genotypes, and we showed that the CAG repeats of the androgen receptor gene influences this phenotypic variability.

The effects of perfusion conditions on melphalan distribution in the isolated perfused rat hindlimb bearing a human melanoma xenograft

An isolated rat hindlimb perfusion model carrying xenografts of the human melanoma cell line MM96 was used to study the effects of perfusion conditions on melphalan distribution. Krebs-Henseleit buffer and Hartmann's solution containing 4.7% bovine serum albumin (BSA) or 2.8% dextran 40 were used as perfusates. Melphalan concentrations in perfusate, tumour nodules and normal tissues were measured using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Increasing the perfusion flow rates (from 4 to 8 mi min(-1)) resulted in higher tissue blood flow (determined with Cr-51-labelled microspheres) and melphalan uptake by tumour and normal tissues. me distribution of melphalan within tumour nodules and normal tissues was similar for both Krebs-Henseleit buffer and Hartmann's solution; however, tissue concentrations of melphalan were significantly higher for a perfusate containing 2.8% dextran 40 than for one containing 4.7% BSA. The melphalan concentration in the tumour was one-third of that found in the skin if the perfusate contained 4.7% BSA. In conclusion, this study has shown that a high perfusion flow enhances the delivery of melphalan into implanted tumour nodules and normal tissues, and a perfusate with low melphalan binding (no albumin) is preferred for maximum uptake of drug by the tumour.

Model-Predicted Performance of Second-Trimester Down Syndrome Screening With Sonographic Prenasal Thickness

Objective. The purpose of this study was to estimate the Down syndrome detection and false-positive rates for second-trimester sonographic prenasal thickness (PT) measurement alone and in combination with other markers. Methods. Multivariate log Gaussian modeling was performed using numerical integration. Parameters for the PT distribution, in multiples of the normal gestation-specific median (MoM), were derived from 105 Down syndrome and 1385 unaffected pregnancies scanned at 14 to 27 weeks. The data included a new series of 25 cases and 535 controls combined with 4 previously published series. The means were estimated by the median and the SDs by the 10th to 90th range divided by 2.563. Parameters for other markers were obtained from the literature. Results. A log Gaussian model fitted the distribution of PT values well in Down syndrome and unaffected pregnancies. The distribution parameters were as follows: Down syndrome, mean, 1.334 MoM; log(10) SD, 0.0772; unaffected pregnancies, 0.995 and 0.0752, respectively. The model-predicted detection rates for 1%, 3%, and 5% false-positive rates for PT alone were 35%, 51%, and 60%, respectively. The addition of PT to a 4 serum marker protocol increased detection by 14% to 18% compared with serum alone. The simultaneous sonographic measurement of PT and nasal bone length increased detection by 19% to 26%, and with a third sonographic marker, nuchal skin fold, performance was comparable with first-trimester protocols. Conclusions. Second-trimester screening with sonographic PT and serum markers is predicted to have a high detection rate, and further sonographic markers could perform comparably with first-trimester screening protocols.

Quantitative Analysis of Placental Vasculature by Three-Dimensional Power Doppler Ultrasonography in Normal Pregnancies From 12 to 40 Weeks of Gestation

Evaluate the distribution and variation of placental vascular indices according to gestational age and placental volume. From March to November 2007, three-dimensional (3D)-power Doppler ultrasound was performed in 295 normal pregnancies from 12 to 40 weeks of gestation. Using the same preestablished settings for all patients, power Doppler was applied to the placenta and placental Volume was obtained by the rotational technique (VOCAL(TM)). The 3D-power histogram was used to determine the placental vascular indices: vascularization index (VI), flow index (FI) and vascularization-flow index (VFI). The placental vascular indices were then plotted against gestational age and placental volume. All placental vascular indices showed constant distribution throughout gestation. A tendency for a reduction in placental vascular indices with increased placental volume was observed, but was only statistically significant when placental FI was considered (p < 0.05). All placental vascular indices estimated by 3D-power Doppler ultrasonography presented constant distribution throughout gestation, despite the increase in placental volume according to gestational age. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vascular density and distribution of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and its receptor VEGFR-2 (Flk-1) are significantly higher in patients with deeply infiltrating endometriosis affecting the rectum

Objective: To analyze vascular density and immunolocalization of angiogenic vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and its receptor Flk-1 in the proliferative and secretory eutopic human endometrium. and in three different sites of endometriosis: the ovary, bladder, and rectum. Design: Prospective study. Setting: University hospital. Patient(s): Thirty women with endometriosis (10 ovarian, 1.0 bladder, 10 rectal) and 32 control women (10 proliferative endometrium, 10 secretory endometrium, 4 normal ovary, 4 normal bladder, 4 normal rectum). Intervention(s): Normal endometrial samples were obtained from women during laparoscopic ablation of subserous myoma, and biopsy specimens of endometriosis were obtained from patients undergoing surgery for the diagnosis and treatment of endometriosis. Normal tissues of ovary, bladder, and rectum were obtained from these organs beside the lesions of endometriosis. Main Outcome Measure(S): Blood vessels were quantified according to the number of von Willebrand factor-positive endothelial cells. The VEGF and Flk-1 distribution were evaluated semiquantitatively by immunohistochemical staining. Result(s): More blood vessels were found in cases of endometriosis, particularly rectal endometriosis, compared with the respective control samples and with the eutopic endometrium, and they were localized in endometrial stroma around the glands. The VEGF and Flk-1 expression levels were also higher in cases of endometriosis, especially rectal endometriosis. Conclusion(s): Vascularization and VEGF and Flk-1 expression are significantly higher in deeply infiltrating endometriosis affecting the rectum, reinforcing the hypothesis that antiangiogenesis therapy may constitute a new modality of treatment, especially in cases of deep endometriosis involving the rectum.

Elastic Fibers in Reinke`s Edema

Objectives: We describe the distribution of elastic system fibers in the superficial layer of the lamina propria of Reinke`s edema, as compared with normal vocal folds. Methods: Weigert`s resorcin-fuchsin stain after oxidation with 10% oxone was used to study the arrangement of elastic fibers. The findings were categorized and afterward compared with the severity of Reinke`s edema. Results: Analysis of 20 specimens of vocal folds with Reinke`s edema showed that the network of thin elastic fibers in Reinke`s space lost their undulated appearance and had a tangled aspect. In addition, these fibers were no longer parallel to the epithelial basement membrane, but had a random distribution scattered throughout Reinke`s space. The elastic fiber network immediately below the epithelial basement membrane also appeared more fragmented in Reinke`s edema because of some alteration in organization combined with the 5-mu m-thick histologic sectioning plane. No significant difference in the degree of elastic system fiber disarrangement was observed between severity grades II and III (p = 0.382). Large areas of disarrangement were predominant (80% of cases). Conclusions: The disarrangement of elastic fibers in Reinke`s edema may cause insufficient tissue resistance and resilience, contributing to the hypermobility observed in Reinke`s edema.

Prevalence and distribution of the GBV-C/HGV among HIV-1-infected patients under anti-retroviral therapy

Infection with GB virus C (GBV-C) or hepatitis G virus (HGV) is highly prevalent among HIV/AIDS patients. GBV-C/HGV viremia has not been associated with liver disease and seems to slow HIV disease progression. To study the GBV-C/HGV genotypes prevalence among HIV/AIDS patients and its association with HIV viral load (VL) and CD4+ lymphocyte counts. From February 2003 to February 2004, we analyzed 210 HIV-1-infected subjects who were on anti-retroviral therapy (ART). For 63 of them a PCR-nested to the non-coding 5` (5`NCR) region of the GBV-C/HGV was done, and for 49 a DNA direct sequencing was done. A phylogenetic analysis was performed by PHYLIP program. 63(30%) of the HIV-1-infected patients were co-infected with GBV-C/HGV. The phylogenetic analysis revealed the following genotypes (and respective relative frequencies): 1(10%), 2a (41%), 2b (43%), and 3 (6%). Co-infected patients presented lower HIV-1 VL and higher T CD4+ lymphocyte cells counts as compared with patients negative for GBV-C/HGV sequences (log = 4.52 vs. 4.71, p = 0.036), and T CD4+ lymphocyte counts (cells/mm(3) = 322.6 vs. 273.5, p = 0.081, respectively). T CD4+ cells counts equal to, or higher than, 200/mm(3) were significantly more common among co-infected patients than among HIV-infected-only patients (p = 0.042). The lowest T CD4+ cells counts were associated with genotype 1 and the highest with genotype 2b (p = 0.05). The GBV-C/HGV infection prevalence was 30% among HIV-1-infected subjects, and was associated with lower VL and higher CD4+ lymphocyte counts. GBV-C/HGV genotype 2b may be associated with better immunological response. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Capnography reflects ventilation/perfusion distribution in a model of acute lung injury

Background Changes in the shape of the capnogram may reflect changes in lung physiology. We studied the effect of different ventilation/perfusion ratios (V/Q) induced by positive end-expiratory pressures (PEEP) and lung recruitment on phase III slope (S(III)) of volumetric capnograms. Methods Seven lung-lavaged pigs received volume control ventilation at tidal volumes of 6 ml/kg. After a lung recruitment maneuver, open-lung PEEP (OL-PEEP) was defined at 2 cmH(2)O above the PEEP at the onset of lung collapse as identified by the maximum respiratory compliance during a decremental PEEP trial. Thereafter, six distinct PEEP levels either at OL-PEEP, 4 cmH(2)O above or below this level were applied in a random order, either with or without a prior lung recruitment maneuver. Ventilation-perfusion distribution (using multiple inert gas elimination technique), hemodynamics, blood gases and volumetric capnography data were recorded at the end of each condition (minute 40). Results S(III) showed the lowest value whenever lung recruitment and OL-PEEP were jointly applied and was associated with the lowest dispersion of ventilation and perfusion (Disp(R-E)), the lowest ratio of alveolar dead space to alveolar tidal volume (VD(alv)/VT(alv)) and the lowest difference between arterial and end-tidal pCO(2) (Pa-ETCO(2)). Spearman`s rank correlations between S(III) and Disp(R-E) showed a =0.85 with 95% CI for (Fisher`s Z-transformation) of 0.74-0.91, P < 0.0001. Conclusion In this experimental model of lung injury, changes in the phase III slope of the capnograms were directly correlated with the degree of ventilation/perfusion dispersion.