Mixed models for short-run forecasting of electricity prices: Application for the Spanish market

Short-run forecasting of electricity prices has become necessary for power generation unit schedule, since it is the basis of every profit maximization strategy. In this article a new and very easy method to compute accurate forecasts for electricity prices using mixed models is proposed. The main idea is to develop an efficient tool for one-step-ahead forecasting in the future, combining several prediction methods for which forecasting performance has been checked and compared for a span of several years. Also as a novelty, the 24 hourly time series has been modelled separately, instead of the complete time series of the prices. This allows one to take advantage of the homogeneity of these 24 time series. The purpose of this paper is to select the model that leads to smaller prediction errors and to obtain the appropriate length of time to use for forecasting. These results have been obtained by means of a computational experiment. A mixed model which combines the advantages of the two new models discussed is proposed. Some numerical results for the Spanish market are shown, but this new methodology can be applied to other electricity markets as well

Local experiences of liberal peace : marketization and emergent conflict dynamics in Sierra Leone

Peer reviewed

Termination of Ca2+ release by a local inactivation of ryanodine receptors in cardiac myocytes

In heart, a robust regulatory mechanism is required to counteract the regenerative Ca2+-induced Ca2+ release from the sarcoplasmic reticulum. Several mechanisms, including inactivation, adaptation, and stochastic closing of ryanodine receptors (RyRs) have been proposed, but no conclusive evidence has yet been provided. We probed the termination process of Ca2+ release by using a technique of imaging local Ca2+ release, or “Ca2+ spikes”, at subcellular sites; and we tracked the kinetics of Ca2+ release triggered by L-type Ca2+ channels. At 0 mV, Ca2+ release occurred and terminated within 40 ms after the onset of clamp pulses (0 mV). Increasing the open-duration and promoting the reopenings of Ca2+ channels with the Ca2+ channel agonist, FPL64176, did not prolong or trigger secondary Ca2+ spikes, even though two-thirds of the sarcoplasmic reticulum Ca2+ remained available for release. Latency of Ca2+ spikes coincided with the first openings but not with the reopenings of L-type Ca2+ channels. After an initial maximal release, even a multi-fold increase in unitary Ca2+ current induced by a hyperpolarization to −120 mV failed to trigger additional release, indicating absolute refractoriness of RyRs. When the release was submaximal (e.g., at +30 mV), tail currents did activate additional Ca2+ spikes; confocal images revealed that they originated from RyRs unfired during depolarization. These results indicate that Ca2+ release is terminated primarily by a highly localized, use-dependent inactivation of RyRs but not by the stochastic closing or adaptation of RyRs in intact ventricular myocytes.

Rapid, local adaptation of zooplankton behavior to changes in predation pressure in the absence of neutral genetic changes

Organisms producing resting stages provide unique opportunities for reconstructing the genetic history of natural populations. Diapausing seeds and eggs often are preserved in large numbers, representing entire populations captured in an evolutionary inert state for decades and even centuries. Starting from a natural resting egg bank of the waterflea Daphnia, we compare the evolutionary rates of change in an adaptive quantitative trait with those in selectively neutral DNA markers, thus effectively testing whether the observed genetic changes in the quantitative trait are driven by natural selection. The population studied experienced variable and well documented levels of fish predation over the past 30 years and shows correlated genetic changes in phototactic behavior, a predator-avoidance trait that is related to diel vertical migration. The changes mainly involve an increased plasticity response upon exposure to predator kairomone, the direction of the changes being in agreement with the hypothesis of adaptive evolution. Genetic differentiation through time was an order of magnitude higher for the studied behavioral trait than for neutral markers (DNA microsatellites), providing strong evidence that natural selection was the driving force behind the observed, rapid, evolutionary changes.

Local translation of classes of mRNAs that are targeted to neuronal dendrites

The functioning of the neuronal dendrite results from a variety of biological processes including mRNA transport to and protein translation in the dendrite. The complexity of the mRNA population in dendrites suggests that specific biological processes are modulated through the regulation of dendritic biology. There are various classes of mRNAs in dendrites whose translation modulates the ability of the dendrite to receive and integrate presynaptic information. Among these mRNAs are those encoding selective transcription factors that function in the neuronal soma and ionotropic glutamate receptors that function on the neuronal membrane. Conclusive evidence that these mRNAs can be translated is reviewed, and identification of the endogenous sites of translation in living dendrites is presented. These data, as well as those described in the other articles resulting from this colloquium, highlight the complexity of dendritic molecular biology and the exquisitely selective and sensitive modulatory role played by the dendrite in facilitating intracellular and intercellular communication.

Local production of the p40 subunit of interleukin 12 suppresses T-helper 1-mediated immune responses and prevents allogeneic myoblast rejection.

The p40 subunit of interleukin 12 (IL-12p40) has been known to act as an IL-12 antagonist in vitro. We here describe the immunosuppressive effect of IL-12p40 in vivo. A murine myoblast cell line, C2C12, was transduced with retro-virus vectors carrying the lacZ gene as a marker and the IL-12p40 gene. IL-12p40 secreted from the transfectant inhibited the IL-12-induced interferon gamma (IFN-gamma) production by splenocytes in vitro. Survival of C2C12 transplanted into allogeneic recipients was substantially prolonged when transduced with IL-12p40. Cytokine (IL-2 and IFN-gamma) production and cytotoxic T lymphocyte induction against allogeneic C2C12 were impaired in the recipients transplanted with the IL-12p40 transfectant. Delayed-type hypersensitivity response against C2C12 was also diminished in the IL-12p40 recipients. Furthermore, serum antibodies against beta-galactosidase of the T-helper 1-dependent isotypes (IgG2 and IgG3) were decreased in the IL-12p40 recipients. These results indicate that locally produced IL-12p40 exerts a potent immunosuppressive effect on T-helper 1-mediated immune responses that lead to allograft rejection. Therefore, IL-12p40 gene transduction would be useful for preventing the rejection of allografts and genetically modified own cells that are transduced with potentially antigenic molecules in gene therapy.

cAMP compartmentation is responsible for a local activation of cardiac Ca2+ channels by beta-adrenergic agonists.

The role of cAMP subcellular compartmentation in the progress of beta-adrenergic stimulation of cardiac L-type calcium current (ICa) was investigated by using a method based on the use of whole-cell patch-clamp recording and a double capillary for extracellular microperfusion. Frog ventricular cells were sealed at both ends to two patch-clamp pipettes and positioned approximately halfway between the mouths of two capillaries that were separated by a 5-micron thin wall. ICa could be inhibited in one half or the other by omitting Ca2+ from one solution or the other. Exposing half of the cell to a saturating concentration of isoprenaline (ISO, 1 microM) produced a nonmaximal increase in ICa (347 +/- 70%; n = 4) since a subsequent application of ISO to the other part induced an additional effect of nearly similar amplitude to reach a 673 +/- 130% increase. However, half-cell exposure to forskolin (FSK, 30 microM) induced a maximal stimulation of ICa (561 +/- 55%; n = 4). This effect was not the result of adenylyl cyclase activation due to FSK diffusion in the nonexposed part of the cell. To determine the distant effects of ISO and FSK on ICa, the drugs were applied in a zero-Ca solution. Adding Ca2+ to the drug-containing solutions allowed us to record the local effect of the drugs. Dose-response curves for the local and distant effects of ISO and FSK on ICa were used as an index of cAMP concentration changes near the sarcolemma. We found that ISO induced a 40-fold, but FSK induced only a 4-fold, higher cAMP concentration close to the Ca2+ channels, in the part of the cell exposed to the drugs, than it did in the rest of the cell. cAMP compartmentation was greatly reduced after inhibition of phosphodiesterase activity with 3-isobutyl-methylxanthine, suggesting the colocalization of enzymes involved in the cAMP cascade. We conclude that beta-adrenergic receptors are functionally coupled to nearby Ca2+ channels via local elevations of cAMP.

Rapid local synchronization of action potentials: toward computation with coupled integrate-and-fire neurons.

The collective behavior of interconnected spiking nerve cells is investigated. It is shown that a variety of model systems exhibit the same short-time behavior and rapidly converge to (approximately) periodic firing patterns with locally synchronized action potentials. The dynamics of one model can be described by a downhill motion on an abstract energy landscape. Since an energy landscape makes it possible to understand and program computation done by an attractor network, the results will extend our understanding of collective computation from models based on a firing-rate description to biologically more realistic systems with integrate-and-fire neurons.

Local probe of fractional edge states of S=1 Heisenberg spin chains

Spin chains are among the simplest physical systems in which electron-electron interactions induce novel states of matter. Here we propose to combine atomic scale engineering and spectroscopic capabilities of state of the art scanning tunnel microscopy to probe the fractionalized edge states of individual atomic scale S=1 spin chains. These edge states arise from the topological order of the ground state in the Haldane phase. We also show that the Haldane gap and the spin-spin correlation length can be measured with the same technique.

Local convergence of quasi-Newton methods under metric regularity

We consider quasi-Newton methods for generalized equations in Banach spaces under metric regularity and give a sufficient condition for q-linear convergence. Then we show that the well-known Broyden update satisfies this sufficient condition in Hilbert spaces. We also establish various modes of q-superlinear convergence of the Broyden update under strong metric subregularity, metric regularity and strong metric regularity. In particular, we show that the Broyden update applied to a generalized equation in Hilbert spaces satisfies the Dennis–Moré condition for q-superlinear convergence. Simple numerical examples illustrate the results.

The steel industry in the European Union: Composition and drivers of energy prices and costs. CEPS Special Report No. 80, 17 December 2013

This report assesses the energy costs borne by the steel industry in the EU between 2010 and 2012, and compares the energy costs, including both the energy components and other regulatory costs, to production costs, turnover and margins of steel-makers. The estimates of energy costs are based on primary sources, i.e. is on information provided by steel-makers through a written questionnaire. This information was validated by the research team by checking annual energy bills, when available, and other public sources. In this respect, this exercise represents a unique fact-based investigation into the costs of energy for steel-makers in Europe, whereas most of the information currently available in the public domain is based on secondary or statistical information. In 2012, the median EU steel plant pays about €33/MWh for gas, up from €26/MWh in 2010. As for electricity, in 2012 the EU median plant pays €62/MWh, up from €59/MWh in 2010. The report also includes a comparison with the prices of energy carriers paid by producers based in the US.