Improved prediction of coronary heart disease with markers of atherosclerosis and of inflammation in older adults?

Background: Several markers of atherosclerosis and of inflammation have been shown to predict coronary heart disease (CHD) individually. However, the utility of markers of atherosclerosis and of inflammation on prediction of CHD over traditional risk factors has not been well established, especially in the elderly. Methods: We studied 2202 men and women, aged 70-79, without baseline cardiovascular disease over 6-year follow-up to assess the risk of incident CHD associated with baseline noninvasive measures of atherosclerosis (ankle-arm index [AAI], aortic pulse wave velocity [aPWV]) and inflammatory markers (interleukin-6 [IL-6], C-reactive protein [CRP], tumor necrosis factor-a [TNF-a]). CHD events were studied as either nonfatal myocardial infarction or coronary death ("hard" events), and "hard" events plus hospitalization for angina, or the need for coronary-revascularization procedures (total CHD events). Results: During the 6-year follow-up, 283 participants had CHD events (including 136 "hard" events). IL-6, TNF-a and AAI independently predicted CHD events above Framingham Risk Score (FRS) with hazard ratios [HR] for the highest as compared with the lowest quartile for IL-6 of 1.95 (95%CI: 1.38-2.75, p for trend <0.001), TNF-a of 1.45 (95%CI: 1.04-2.02, p for trend 0.03), of 1.66 (95%CI: 1.19-2.31) for AAI 0.9, as compared to AAI 1.01-1.30. CRP and aPWV were not independently associated with CHD events. Results were similar for "hard" CHD events. Addition of IL-6 and AAI to traditional cardiovascular risk factors yielded the greatest improvement in the prediction of CHD; C-index for "hard"/total CHD events increased from 0.62/0.62 for traditional risk factors to 0.64/0.64 for IL-6 addition, 0.65/0.63 for AAI, and 0.66/0.64 for IL-6 combined with AAI. Being in the highest quartile of IL-6 combined with an AAI 0.90 or >1.40 yielded an HR of 2.51 (1.50-4.19) and 4.55 (1.65-12.50) above FRS, respectively. With use of CHD risk categories, risk prediction at 5 years was more accurate in models that included IL-6, AAI or both, with 8.0, 8.3 and 12.1% correctly reclassified, respectively. Conclusions: Among older adults, markers of atherosclerosis and of inflammation, particularly IL-6 and AAI, are independently associated with CHD. However, these markers only modestly improve cardiovascular risk prediction beyond traditional risk factors.

Long-term risk of incident type 2 diabetes and measures of overall and regional obesity: the EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study

BACKGROUND Waist circumference (WC) is a simple and reliable measure of fat distribution that may add to the prediction of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but previous studies have been too small to reliably quantify the relative and absolute risk of future diabetes by WC at different levels of body mass index (BMI). METHODS AND FINDINGS The prospective InterAct case-cohort study was conducted in 26 centres in eight European countries and consists of 12,403 incident T2D cases and a stratified subcohort of 16,154 individuals from a total cohort of 340,234 participants with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up. We used Prentice-weighted Cox regression and random effects meta-analysis methods to estimate hazard ratios for T2D. Kaplan-Meier estimates of the cumulative incidence of T2D were calculated. BMI and WC were each independently associated with T2D, with WC being a stronger risk factor in women than in men. Risk increased across groups defined by BMI and WC; compared to low normal weight individuals (BMI 18.5-22.4 kg/m(2)) with a low WC (<94/80 cm in men/women), the hazard ratio of T2D was 22.0 (95% confidence interval 14.3; 33.8) in men and 31.8 (25.2; 40.2) in women with grade 2 obesity (BMI≥35 kg/m(2)) and a high WC (>102/88 cm). Among the large group of overweight individuals, WC measurement was highly informative and facilitated the identification of a subgroup of overweight people with high WC whose 10-y T2D cumulative incidence (men, 70 per 1,000 person-years; women, 44 per 1,000 person-years) was comparable to that of the obese group (50-103 per 1,000 person-years in men and 28-74 per 1,000 person-years in women). CONCLUSIONS WC is independently and strongly associated with T2D, particularly in women, and should be more widely measured for risk stratification. If targeted measurement is necessary for reasons of resource scarcity, measuring WC in overweight individuals may be an effective strategy, since it identifies a high-risk subgroup of individuals who could benefit from individualised preventive action.

Il Discorso dell'amore verso la patria (1631) di Ludovico Zuccolo

Scopo di questo studio è la disamina e la divulgazione dei pregi letterari e del valore concettualmente innovativo del Discorso dell 'amore verso la patria di Ludovico Zuccolo. L'analisi dei contenuti dell'opera, unitamente alla puntualizzazione delle sue caratteristiche formali e stilistiche, permette di vedere come questo scrittore proponga, utilizzando la forma letteraria del discorso politico, una riuscita codificazione della tematica dei diritti e dei doveri dei cittadini verso la patria; operazione in cui si sostanzia, a mio avviso, l'apporto innovativo dello Zuccolo. Dopo l'iniziale riscoperta, da parte di Benedetto Croce, del capitolo delle Considerazioni sulla Ragion di Stato, l`opera dello Zuccolo ha generato un certo interesse critico fra gli studiosi di letteratura politica del "900" senza tuttavia divenire oggetto di contributi esaustivi malgrado, a nostro parere, la presenza di elementi di originalità di pensiero nel Discorso dell 'amore verso la patria. Inoltre, l'opinione degli specialisti non è mai stata unanime riguardo al valore e ai contenuti delle opere di questo autore. Se per il Croce, ne << La Critica >> del 1926, egli appare come colui che ha prodotto, «Lo scritto più acuto e originale sull'argomento [della Ragion di Stato], composto in quel seco1o.>> (p. 301), per altri egli si presenta come un dotto estensore di trattati politici nei quali sfoggia abilmente la sua erudizione classica e Luigi Firpo arriva a suggerire addirittura che lo Zuccolo sia colpevole di plagio proprio laddove tratta il tema della Ragion di Stato : Al punto in cui siamo, una cosa è certa, e cioè che i conti non tornano : non riesco a credere che uno scrittore inzeppi centinaia e centinaia di pagine di luoghi comuni, di erudizione d"accatto, di oziosità accademiche, e poi un bel mattino, morso dalla tarantola o baciato in fronte da Minerva, metta in carta il piccolo capolavoro, le pagine meditate e profonde, e perciò lungamente soffeite, che pure gli appartengono per una paternità incontestata e certa. Dico questo, perché in un caso del genere, non al miracolo s"avrebbe da credere, ma, semmai, al plagio. (1). Catherine Pitiot, nel suo saggio La retorica politica nell 'opera utopica di Ludovico Zuccolo, coglie invece in questo autore unicamente l"utopista che << lntende allontanarsi dalla realtà contemporanea per modificarla, correggerla e presentare un'in1magine che sia fondamentalmente diversa, a livello strutturale. >> (2). Di parere diametralmente opposto Rodolfo de Mattei, che attribuisce allo Zuccolo lo status di anti-utopista per eccellenza, tipico di uno scrittore che, Non ha voluto usufruire della facile libertà della fantasia per sovvertire l'ordine storico e per alterare arbitrariamente la natura umana, cioé per proporre un ordinamento mirante ad una radicale trasformazione della società e quindi di assai dubbia realizzazione. (3). Altri studiosi, fra cui Bruno Nediani, si sono dedicati alla descrizione della personalità dello Zuccolo, attingendo alle sue lettere - che lo stesso Nediani ha riscoperto - oltre che ai brevi accermi che di sé fa lo Zuccolo negli scritti. Dal saggio del Nediani, La personalità di Ludovico Zuccolo (1969), emerge la figura di un uomo tormentato e insoddisfatto, ossessionato dal sospetto dell"autorità ecclesiastica, costretto a procacciarsi impieghi inadeguati presso i potenti, all'inseguimento dell'obiettivo di una carriera che, comunque, finisce con il risultargli sempre, prima o poi, insopportabile. Più recentemente, Sergio Bertelli, nel suo contributo alla Storia della letteratura di Cecchi e Sapegno, ha aperto una nuova prospettiva sullo Zuccolo proponendolo come colui che, Spezza finalmente il cerchio moralistico costruito dal Botero attorno al pensiero machiavelliano e la ragion di stato cessa di essere giudicata vera o falsa, buona o malvagia, interessando in sé e per sé, cioé nei suoi presupposti e nei suoi fini esclusivamente politici. (4).

Gene-lifestyle interaction and type 2 diabetes: the EPIC interact case-cohort study.

BACKGROUND Understanding of the genetic basis of type 2 diabetes (T2D) has progressed rapidly, but the interactions between common genetic variants and lifestyle risk factors have not been systematically investigated in studies with adequate statistical power. Therefore, we aimed to quantify the combined effects of genetic and lifestyle factors on risk of T2D in order to inform strategies for prevention. METHODS AND FINDINGS The InterAct study includes 12,403 incident T2D cases and a representative sub-cohort of 16,154 individuals from a cohort of 340,234 European participants with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up. We studied the combined effects of an additive genetic T2D risk score and modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors using Prentice-weighted Cox regression and random effects meta-analysis methods. The effect of the genetic score was significantly greater in younger individuals (p for interaction  = 1.20×10-4). Relative genetic risk (per standard deviation [4.4 risk alleles]) was also larger in participants who were leaner, both in terms of body mass index (p for interaction  = 1.50×10-3) and waist circumference (p for interaction  = 7.49×10-9). Examination of absolute risks by strata showed the importance of obesity for T2D risk. The 10-y cumulative incidence of T2D rose from 0.25% to 0.89% across extreme quartiles of the genetic score in normal weight individuals, compared to 4.22% to 7.99% in obese individuals. We detected no significant interactions between the genetic score and sex, diabetes family history, physical activity, or dietary habits assessed by a Mediterranean diet score. CONCLUSIONS The relative effect of a T2D genetic risk score is greater in younger and leaner participants. However, this sub-group is at low absolute risk and would not be a logical target for preventive interventions. The high absolute risk associated with obesity at any level of genetic risk highlights the importance of universal rather than targeted approaches to lifestyle intervention.

Markers of atherosclerosis and of inflammation for prediction of coronary heart disease in older adults

BACKGROUND: Several markers of atherosclerosis and of inflammation have been shown to predict coronary heart disease (CHD) individually. However, the utility of markers of atherosclerosis and of inflammation on prediction of CHD over traditional risk factors has not been well established, especially in the elderly. METHODS: We studied 2202 men and women, aged 70-79, without baseline cardiovascular disease over 6-year follow-up to assess the risk of incident CHD associated with baseline noninvasive measures of atherosclerosis (ankle-arm index [AAI], aortic pulse wave velocity [aPWV]) and inflammatory markers (interleukin-6 [IL-6], C-reactive protein [CRP], tumor necrosis factor-a [TNF-a]). CHD events were studied as either nonfatal myocardial infarction or coronary death ("hard" events), and "hard" events plus hospitalization for angina, or the need for coronary-revascularization procedures (total CHD events). RESULTS: During the 6-year follow-up, 283 participants had CHD events (including 136 "hard" events). IL-6, TNF-a and AAI independently predicted CHD events above Framingham Risk Score (FRS) with hazard ratios [HR] for the highest as compared with the lowest quartile for IL-6 of 1.95 (95%CI: 1.38-2.75, p for trend<0.001), TNF-a of 1.45 (95%CI: 1.04-2.02, p for trend 0.03), of 1.66 (95%CI: 1.19-2.31) for AAI £0.9, as compared to AAI 1.01-1.30. CRP and aPWV were not independently associated with CHD events. Results were similar for "hard" CHD events. Addition of IL-6 and AAI to traditional cardiovascular risk factors yielded the greatest improvement in the prediction of CHD; C-index for "hard"/total CHD events increased from 0.62/0.62 for traditional risk factors to 0.64/0.64 for IL-6 addition, 0.65/0.63 for AAI, and 0.66/0.64 for IL-6 combined with AAI. Being in the highest quartile of IL-6 combined with an AAI £ 0.90 or >1.40 yielded an HR of 2.51 (1.50-4.19) and 4.55 (1.65-12.50) above FRS, respectively. With use of CHD risk categories, risk prediction at 5 years was more accurate in models that included IL-6, AAI or both, with 8.0, 8.3 and 12.1% correctly reclassified respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Among older adults, markers of atherosclerosis and of inflammation, particularly IL-6 and AAI, are independently associated with CHD. However, these markers only modestly improve cardiovascular risk prediction beyond traditional risk factors. Acknowledgments: This study was supported by Contracts NO1-AG-6-2101, NO1-AG-6- 2103, and NO1-AG-6-2106 of the National Institute on Aging. This research was supported in part by the Intramural Research Program of the NIH, National Institute on Aging.

“Agli orli della vita”: I Giganti della montagna

Luigi Pirandello (1867-1936) affida alle pagine del suo ultimo dramma, I Giganti della montagna, l’estrema riflessione sul rapporto tra l’esperienza artistica e la vita, attraverso il mito, inteso come possibilità di ricreazione e rinnovamento. Il rapporto tra persona e personaggio costituirà il punto di partenza per l’analisi dello spazio drammatico, luogo emblematico del dialogo tra l’arte e la vita, incarnato nella personalità dei protagonisti: il mago Crotone e la contessa Ilse. Il riconoscimento finale della capacità salvifica e creativa dell’arte rivelerà il confine friabile che separa—ed unisce al contempo—la vita e il palcoscenico.

Comprehensive evaluation of the IEEE 802.15.4 MAC layer performance with retransmissions

Supported by IEEE 802.15.4 standardization activities, embedded networks have been gaining popularity in recent years. The focus of this paper is to quantify the behavior of key networking metrics of IEEE 802.15.4 beacon-enabled nodes under typical operating conditions, with the inclusion of packet retransmissions. We corrected and extended previous analyses by scrutinizing the assumptions on which the prevalent Markovian modeling is generally based. By means of a comparative study, we singled out which of the assumptions impact each of the performance metrics (throughput, delay, power consumption, collision probability, and packet-discard probability). In particular, we showed that - unlike what is usually assumed - the probability that a node senses the channel busy is not constant for all the stages of the backoff procedure and that these differences have a noticeable impact on backoff delay, packet-discard probability, and power consumption. Similarly, we showed that - again contrary to common assumption - the probability of obtaining transmission access to the channel depends on the number of nodes that is simultaneously sensing it. We evidenced that ignoring this dependence has a significant impact on the calculated values of throughput and collision probability. Circumventing these and other assumptions, we rigorously characterize, through a semianalytical approach, the key metrics in a beacon-enabled IEEE 802.15.4 system with retransmissions.

@neurIST infrastructure for advanced disease management through integration of heterogeneous data, computing, and complex processing services

The increasing volume of data describing humandisease processes and the growing complexity of understanding, managing, and sharing such data presents a huge challenge for clinicians and medical researchers. This paper presents the@neurIST system, which provides an infrastructure for biomedical research while aiding clinical care, by bringing together heterogeneous data and complex processing and computing services. Although @neurIST targets the investigation and treatment of cerebral aneurysms, the system’s architecture is generic enough that it could be adapted to the treatment of other diseases.Innovations in @neurIST include confining the patient data pertaining to aneurysms inside a single environment that offers cliniciansthe tools to analyze and interpret patient data and make use of knowledge-based guidance in planning their treatment. Medicalresearchers gain access to a critical mass of aneurysm related data due to the system’s ability to federate distributed informationsources. A semantically mediated grid infrastructure ensures that both clinicians and researchers are able to seamlessly access andwork on data that is distributed across multiple sites in a secure way in addition to providing computing resources on demand forperforming computationally intensive simulations for treatment planning and research.

La traduzione poetica del Cinquecento e le "Metamorfosi d'Ovidio" dell'Anguillara

La thèse est articulée en trois grandes sections, consacrées respectivement: (I) à la traduction poétique en Italie à partir des années 1540 jusqu'à la fin du XVIème siècle (II), à la réception des Métamorphoses d'Ovide à travers la réflexion théorique et les réécritures en italien (III), à la plus célèbre des versions italiennes du poème latin, celle de Giovanni Andrea dell'Anguillara (1507-1570 env.), parue à Venise en 1561. Le premier chapitre (La traduzione poetica nel Cinquecento) prend en considération plus d'une trentaine de traductions d'auteurs classiques parues en Italie entre 1540 et 1580. L'examen détaillé du péritexte qui accompagne les éditions (préfaces, commentaires, dédicaces) montre l'existence d'un riche débat autour de la traduction littéraire ainsi que la présence d'un public vaste et diversifié comme destinataire de ces oeuvres. Dans ce contexte, la traduction en langue vulgaire de l'oeuvre d'Ovide, et particulièrement des Métamorphoses, constitue un cas fort intéressant. Le deuxième chapitre (Aspetti della ricezione delle Metamorfosi nel Cinquecento) offre un ample aperçu sur la réception du poème latin à travers ses principales éditions, commentaires et interprétations. En s'appuyant sur les travaux de A. Moss et D. Javitch, ce chapitre (II. 2 Usi e funzioni delle Metamorfosi in ambito teorico e poetico) montre les contradictions existant dans les jugements sur les Métamorphoses au XVIème siècle, partagés entre l'admiration pour la virtuosité du poète latin et l'écho des préjugés moraux et stylistiques hérités de la critique ancienne. La poétique du Cinquecento en effet devait faire face à deux problèmes majeurs posés par le texte d'Ovide: au niveau structurel son caractère polycentrique et digressif, inconciliable avec le modèle épique virgilien chéri par le siècle; au niveau thématique la présence de récits de phénomènes jugés invraisemblables, comme notamment celui de la métamorphose. L'analyse des traductions des Métamorphoses en italien entre 1530 et 1570 prend en considération autant les réécritures partielles (dues aux poètes Luigi Alamanni, Bernardo Tasso, Girolamo Parabosco) que les versions intégrales du poème. Parmi ces dernières, une attention particulière a été réservée à l'adaptation du vénitien Ludovico Dolce, Le Trasformationi (1553), libre réécriture sur le modèle du Roland Furieux. La dernière partie du travail est entièrement consacrée à la célèbre version de Giovanni Andrea dell'Anguillara, poète et traducteur dans le cercle du cardinal Alessandro Farnese. Comme le démontre l'analyse comparée du texte italien et de l'original latin, cette «belle infidèle» (qui supplanta la version de Dolce et fut réimprimée maintes fois jusqu'au XIX siècle) doit son succès à son parfait équilibre entre fidélité à la structure du poème et une attitude très libre dans la narration, qui n'hésite pas à actualiser et «contaminer» le texte ovidien avec des auteurs modernes tels que l'Arioste ou Bandello. L'appendice comprend une bibliographie exhaustive des éditions de la traduction d'Anguillara parues au XVIème siècle.

Banks and development: Jewish communities in the Italian Renaissance and current economic performance

Are differences in local banking development long-lasting? Do they affect long-term economic performance?I answer these questions by relying on an historical development that occurred in Italian cities during the 15thcentury. A sudden change in the Catholic doctrine had driven the Jews toward money lending. Cities thatwere hosting Jewish communities developed complex banking institutions for two reasons: first, the Jews werethe only people in Italy who were allowed to lend for a profit and, second, the Franciscan reaction to Jewishusury led to the creation of charity lending institutions, the Monti di Pietà, that have survived until today andhave become the basis of the Italian banking system. Using Jewish demography in 1500 as an instrument, Iprovide evidence of (1) an extraordinary persistence in the level of banking development across Italian cities (2)large effects of current local banking development on per-capita income. Additional firm-level analyses suggestthat well-functioning local banks exert large effects on aggregate productivity by reallocating resources towardmore efficient firms. I exploit the expulsion of the Jews from the Spanish territories in Italy in 1541 to arguethat my results are not driven by omitted institutional, cultural and geographical characteristics. In particular,I show that, in Central Italy, the difference in current income between cities that hosted Jewish communitiesand cities that did not exists only in those regions that were not Spanish territories in the 16th century.

Productivity and the welfare of nations

We show that the welfare of a representative consumer can be related to observable aggregatedata. To a first order, the change in welfare is summarized by (the present value of) the Solowproductivity residual and by the growth rate of the capital stock per capita. We also show thatproductivity and the capital stock suffice to calculate differences in welfare across countries, withboth variables computed as log level deviations from a reference country. These results hold forarbitrary production technology, regardless of the degree of product market competition, and applyto open economies as well if TFP is constructed using absorption rather than GDP as the measureof output. They require that TFP be constructed using prices and quantities as perceived byconsumers. Thus, factor shares need to be calculated using after-tax wages and rental rates, andwill typically sum to less than one. We apply these results to calculate welfare gaps and growthrates in a sample of developed countries for which high-quality TFP and capital data are available.We find that under realistic scenarios the United Kingdom and Spain had the highest growth ratesof welfare over our sample period of 1985-2005, but the United States had the highest level ofwelfare.