The Comovement between Monetary and Fiscal Policy Instruments during the Post-War Period in the U.S.

This paper empirically studies the dynamic relationship between monetary and fiscal policies by analyzing the comovements between the Fed funds rate and the primary deficit/output ratio. Simple economic thinking establishes that a negative correlation between Fed rate and deficit arises whenever the two policy authorities share a common stabilization objective. However, when budget balancing concerns lead to a drastic deficit reduction the Fed may reduce the Fed rate in order to smooth the impact of fiscal policy, which results in a positive correlation between these two policy instruments. The empirical results show (i) a significant negative comovement between Fed rate and deficit and (ii) that deficit and output gap Granger-cause the Fed funds rate during the post-Volcker era, but the opposite is not true.

Markov Switching Risk Premium and the term structure of interest rates. Empirical evidence from US post-war interest rates

This paper considers the basic present value model of interest rates under rational expectations with two additional features. First, following McCallum (1994), the model assumes a policy reaction function where changes in the short-term interest rate are determined by the long-short spread. Second, the short-term interest rate and the risk premium processes are characterized by a Markov regime-switching model. Using US post-war interest rate data, this paper finds evidence that a two-regime switching model fits the data better than the basic model. The estimation results also show the presence of two alternative states displaying quite different features.

The changing behaviour of the term structure of post-war US

Using U.S. interest rate data covering the period 1950:1-1992:7, this paper tests the rational expectations model of the term structure of interest rates. We show evidence that the rational expectations model of the term structure is supported by the data during the seventies and a period lasting from the mid-eighties to the end of the sample. However, during the …fties, sixties and a period that covers most of the Volcker’s office term (from September 1979 to April 1986) the term structure model is rejected by the data. Moreover, wefind evidence of regime changes in the short-term rate process and the term structure of interest rates. These regime switches roughly coincide with changes in the Federal Reserve chairman. The switches in monetary policy taking place when the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve changes therefore seem to play an important role in characterizing the term structure of interest rates.

Switching Regimes in the Term Structure of Interest Rates During U.S. Post-War: A case for the Lucas proof equilibrium?

Published as an article in: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2004, vol. 8, issue 1, pages 5.

Summary report on water quantity and quality studies of Vancouver Lake, Washington

Vancouver Lake, located adjacent to the Columbia River and just north of the Vancouver-Portland metropolitan area, is a "dying" lake. Although all lakes die naturally in geologic time through the process of eutrophication,* Vancouver Lake is dying more rapidly due to man's activities and due to the resultant increased accumulation of sediment, chemicals, and wastes. Natural eutrophication takes thousands of years, whereas man-made modifications can cause the death of a lake in decades. Vancouver Lake does, however, have the potential of becoming a valuable water resource asset for the area, due particularly to its location near the Columbia River which can be used as a source of "flushing" water to improve the quality of Vancouver Lake. (Document pdf contains 59 pages) Community interest in Vancouver Lake has waxed and waned. Prior to World War II, there were relatively few plans for discussions about the Lake and its surrounding land area. A plan to drain the Lake for farming was prohibited by the city council and county commissioners. Interest increased in 1945 when the federal government considered developing the Lake as a berthing harbor for deactivated ships at which time a preliminary proposal was prepared by the City. The only surface water connection between Vancouver Lake and the Columbia River, except during floods, is Lake River. The Lake now serves as a receiving body of water for Lake River tidal flow and surface flow from creeks and nearby land areas. Seasonally, these flows are heavily laden with sediment, septic tank drainage, fertilizers and drainage from cattle yards. Construction and gravel pit operations increase the sediment loads entering the Lake from Burnt Bridge Creek and Salmon Creek (via Lake River by tidal action). The tidal flats at the north end of Vancouver Lake are evidence of this accumulation. Since 1945, the buildup of sediment and nutrients created by man's activities has accelerated the growth of the large water plants and algae which contribute to the degeneration of the Lake. Flooding from the Columbia River, as in 1968, has added to the deposition in Vancouver Lake. The combined effect of these human and natural activities has changed Vancouver Lake into a relatively useless body of shallow water supporting some wildlife, rough fish, and shallow draft boats. It is still pleasant to view from the hills to the east. Because precipitation and streamflow are the lowest during the summer and early fall, water quantity and quality conditions are at their worst when the potential of the Lake for water-based recreation is the highest. Increased pollution of the Lake has caused a larger segment of the community to become concerned. Land use and planning studies were undertaken on the Columbia River lowlands and a wide variety of ideas were proposed for improving the quality of the water-land environment in order to enhance the usefulness of the area. In 1966, the College of Engineering Research Division at Washington State University (WSU0 in Pullman, Washington, was contacted by the Port of Vancouver to determine possible alternatives for restoring Vancouver Lake. Various proposals were prepared between 1966 and 1969. During the summer and fall of 1967, a study was made by WSU on the existing water quality in the Lake. In 1969, the current studies were funded to establish a data base for considering a broad range of alternative solutions for improving the quantity and quality of Vancouver Lake. Until these studies were undertaken, practically no data on a continuous nature were available on Vancouver Lake, Lake River, or their tributaries. (Document pdf contains 59 pages)

"A casa dos ímpios se desfará, mas a tenda dos retos florescerá" : a participação da Frente Parlamentar Evangélica no legislativo brasileiro

Analisa, a partir do trabalho de campo empreendido nas atividades da Frente Parlamentar Evangélica do Congresso Nacional, como estes parlamentares participam de tempos e espaços do legislativo. Deste modo, trago a descrição etnográfica os discursos destes deputados religiosos que denotam, mormente, uma "guerra santa" entre os "ungidos" e o Inimigo que ocupa o mundo da política e o espaço público brasileiro. Assim, suspeito que presenciamos contemporaneamente uma maior dessectarização de grupos evangélicos na política quando estes agentes procuram não apenas se tornar a Igreja do amanhã (concorrendo com a Igreja Católica pela posição de religião civil). Mas, sobretudo, tornar, através da participação na política, o mundo dos ímpios o mundo dos justos. Ora, considero, por isso mesmo, as formas particulares de aquisição de sutilezas e de competências necessárias a fim de profissionalizar o político e as relações políticas nas quais estes políticos se engajam. Deste modo, os evangélicos também têm que aprender tais habilidades especialmente por que estão no processo de construção de uma herança histórica na política. Por fim, analiso como os evangélicos, enquanto políticos profissionais, agenciam uma forma de representação e participação políticas que considera tanto o exercício cotidiano da fé quanto uma espécie de investimento nas atividades do século, reinterpretando, assim, o histórico processo de secularização do Estado.

Literaturaren zertarakoa, itzulpenak eta hizkuntzaren auzia Orixerengan

Ejemplar dedicado a: Beñat Oihartzabali gorazarre - Festchrift for Bernard Oyharçabal/ Ricardo Etxepare, Ricardo Gómez, Joseba Andoni Lakarra ( eds.)

La producción flexible: Just in time versus organización científica del trabajo

Nadie puede negar que la competitividad actual de la industria japonesa se basa, entre otras razones, en el bajo coste y alto nivel de calidad de sus productos. Ambas cualidades se han conseguido por la aplicación, a partir de los 70, de prácticas innovadoras y nuevas tecnologías de fabricación como es el caso del Just in Time.

Voyages and travels into Brasil and east-Indies : containing an exact description of the dutch Brasil and divers parts of the east-Indies, their provinces, cities, living creatures, and products, the manners, customs, habits and religion the inhabitants : with a particular account of all the remarkable passages that happened during the author's stay of nine years in Brasil, especially in relation to the revolt of the portugueses, and the intestine war carried on there from 1640 to 1649 : as also a most ample description of the most famous city of batavia in the east-Indies

Joan Nieuhoff, viajante alemão, nasceu em Usen, Vesfália, em 1618, e morreu em Madagascar, em 1672. Trabalhou na Companhia das Índias Orientais, foi nomeado agente em Batávia, em 1654. Em 1655, foi à China tratar da abertura dos portos daquele país ao comércio holandês. Governou o Ceilão de 1662 a 1667. Em 1672, desembarcando em Madagascar, foi morto pelos nativos.

INTERPOL's surveillance network in curbing transnational terrorism

This paper investigates the role that INTERPOL surveillance – the Mobile INTERPOL Network Database (MIND) and the Fixed INTERPOL Network Database (FIND) – played in the War on Terror since its inception in 2005. MIND/FIND surveillance allows countries to screen people and documents systematically at border crossings against INTERPOL databases on terrorists, fugitives, and stolen and lost travel documents. Such documents have been used in the past by terrorists to transit borders. By applying methods developed in the treatment-effects literature, this paper establishes that countries adopting MIND/FIND experienced fewer transnational terrorist attacks than had they not adopted MIND/FIND. Our estimates indicate that, on average, during 2008–2011, adopting and using MIND/FIND results in 1.23 fewer transnational terrorist incidents each year per 100 million people. Thus, a country like France with a population just above 64 million people in 2008 would have 0.79 fewer transnational terrorist incidents per year owing to its use of INTERPOL surveillance. For most treatment countries, this amounts to a sizeable proportional reduction of about 60 per cent.

A photographic record of a pre- and post-lake creation event from World War II at Valley, Isle of Anglesey, UK

The article compares a recent aerial photograph of the lowlands of the Isle of Anglesey area with a German surveillance photograph from 1941. The authors aim to infer the environmental changes made to this sand dune and lake system as a direct consequence of constructing the airfield. Part of Tywyn Trewan, the extensive sand dune system, was completely destroyed in order to create runways and the technical and domestic accommodation to house a strategic airfield. As part of the dredging, six new water bodies with a combined surface area of approximately 6 ha were created.

Not just another pretty reef: the Gainesville Florida Reef, a satellite of the worldwide Hyperbolic Crochet Coral Reef project: poster presentation

The Gainesville Florida Reef, a satellite of the Worldwide Hyperbolic Crochet Coral Reef, project not only shows the beauty of reefs but serves to: • Foster scientific communication through the visual arts • Raise awareness of the fragility of our coral reefs and the entire ecosystem • Support learning by creating physical models of geometric principles • Connect several areas on campus, including fine arts, mathematics and ecology and environmental sciences through collaboration and mutual interest • Encourage local community and alumni involvement through creating, observing and learning

Bacantes de Eurípides: Felicidad iniciática y furia salvaje en el cortejo femenino de Dioniso

404 p. E-mail de contacto del autor: jbreviatti@yahoo.es