Modelling European winter wind storm losses in current and future climate

Severe wind storms are one of the major natural hazards in the extratropics and inflict substantial economic damages and even casualties. Insured storm-related losses depend on (i) the frequency, nature and dynamics of storms, (ii) the vulnerability of the values at risk, (iii) the geographical distribution of these values, and (iv) the particular conditions of the risk transfer. It is thus of great importance to assess the impact of climate change on future storm losses. To this end, the current study employs—to our knowledge for the first time—a coupled approach, using output from high-resolution regional climate model scenarios for the European sector to drive an operational insurance loss model. An ensemble of coupled climate-damage scenarios is used to provide an estimate of the inherent uncertainties. Output of two state-of-the-art global climate models (HadAM3, ECHAM5) is used for present (1961–1990) and future climates (2071–2100, SRES A2 scenario). These serve as boundary data for two nested regional climate models with a sophisticated gust parametrizations (CLM, CHRM). For validation and calibration purposes, an additional simulation is undertaken with the CHRM driven by the ERA40 reanalysis. The operational insurance model (Swiss Re) uses a European-wide damage function, an average vulnerability curve for all risk types, and contains the actual value distribution of a complete European market portfolio. The coupling between climate and damage models is based on daily maxima of 10 m gust winds, and the strategy adopted consists of three main steps: (i) development and application of a pragmatic selection criterion to retrieve significant storm events, (ii) generation of a probabilistic event set using a Monte-Carlo approach in the hazard module of the insurance model, and (iii) calibration of the simulated annual expected losses with a historic loss data base. The climate models considered agree regarding an increase in the intensity of extreme storms in a band across central Europe (stretching from southern UK and northern France to Denmark, northern Germany into eastern Europe). This effect increases with event strength, and rare storms show the largest climate change sensitivity, but are also beset with the largest uncertainties. Wind gusts decrease over northern Scandinavia and Southern Europe. Highest intra-ensemble variability is simulated for Ireland, the UK, the Mediterranean, and parts of Eastern Europe. The resulting changes on European-wide losses over the 110-year period are positive for all layers and all model runs considered and amount to 44% (annual expected loss), 23% (10 years loss), 50% (30 years loss), and 104% (100 years loss). There is a disproportionate increase in losses for rare high-impact events. The changes result from increases in both severity and frequency of wind gusts. Considerable geographical variability of the expected losses exists, with Denmark and Germany experiencing the largest loss increases (116% and 114%, respectively). All countries considered except for Ireland (−22%) experience some loss increases. Some ramifications of these results for the socio-economic sector are discussed, and future avenues for research are highlighted. The technique introduced in this study and its application to realistic market portfolios offer exciting prospects for future research on the impact of climate change that is relevant for policy makers, scientists and economists.

The CAP and EU enlargement: Prospects for an alternative strategy to avoid the lock-in of CAP support

The integration of the central and east European countries (CEECs) into the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) could become a major problem. At the Copenhagen European summit in December 2002, the EU agreed a transitional period with a gradual phasing in of direct payments. However, this strategy will not solve the problems of the CAP: budgetary limits remain problematic, the policy ignores possible developments in the World Trade Organization (WTO), and the extension of direct payments to the CEECs will further capitalize, and hence lock-in, agricultural support. The latter makes future reform even more difficult and, to overcome these problems, we suggest an alternative strategy to integrate the CEECs into the CAP. The EU should phase out direct payments by applying a bond scheme. Finally, we consider whether this option is politically viable.

The water vapour continuum in near-infrared windows – current understanding and prospects for its inclusion in spectroscopic databases

Spectroscopic catalogues, such as GEISA and HITRAN, do not yet include information on the water vapour continuum that pervades visible, infrared and microwave spectral regions. This is partly because, in some spectral regions, there are rather few laboratory measurements in conditions close to those in the Earth’s atmosphere; hence understanding of the characteristics of the continuum absorption is still emerging. This is particularly so in the near-infrared and visible, where there has been renewed interest and activity in recent years. In this paper we present a critical review focusing on recent laboratory measurements in two near-infrared window regions (centred on 4700 and 6300 cm−1) and include reference to the window centred on 2600 cm−1 where more measurements have been reported. The rather few available measurements, have used Fourier transform spectroscopy (FTS), cavity ring down spectroscopy, optical-feedback – cavity enhanced laser spectroscopy and, in very narrow regions, calorimetric interferometry. These systems have different advantages and disadvantages. Fourier Transform Spectroscopy can measure the continuum across both these and neighbouring windows; by contrast, the cavity laser techniques are limited to fewer wavenumbers, but have a much higher inherent sensitivity. The available results present a diverse view of the characteristics of continuum absorption, with differences in continuum strength exceeding a factor of 10 in the cores of these windows. In individual windows, the temperature dependence of the water vapour self-continuum differs significantly in the few sets of measurements that allow an analysis. The available data also indicate that the temperature dependence differs significantly between different near-infrared windows. These pioneering measurements provide an impetus for further measurements. Improvements and/or extensions in existing techniques would aid progress to a full characterisation of the continuum – as an example, we report pilot measurements of the water vapour self-continuum using a supercontinuum laser source coupled to an FTS. Such improvements, as well as additional measurements and analyses in other laboratories, would enable the inclusion of the water vapour continuum in future spectroscopic databases, and therefore allow for a more reliable forward modelling of the radiative properties of the atmosphere. It would also allow a more confident assessment of different theoretical descriptions of the underlying cause or causes of continuum absorption.

Prospects for Developing Countries

While developing countries generally shared the sentiment that they were going to suffer from the effects of climate change policy, evidence to the contrary has emerged during the short time since the Kyoto Protocol’s entry into force. Defying expectations that developing nations could only lose from climate change policy, Brazil has shown that it is actually quite possible to benefit significantly from these policies. Brazil has been proactive in developing the infrastructure to become involved in climate change negotiations, as well as using policy tools such as the CDM. Its actions have resulted in significant economic, developmental, and environmental benefits. The case of Brazil allows for some insight into how other countries with similar developmental profiles —specifically China and India—stand to benefit from climate change policy, and how these benefits will translate into policy for future climate negotiations.

Brazil and the USA: rethinking the future of ethanol for stronger mutual wns

A produção de etanol e a dominação da indústria, historicamente, tem sido uma fonte de discórdia para seus dois principais produtores. Os EUA com seu etanol de milho e o Brasil com sua etanol de cana, são os dois maiores produtores mundiais de etanol (1º EUA; 2º Brasil) e tem competido pela participação de mercado mundial há décadas. A partir de Dezembro de 2011, os EUA levantaram as tarifas e os subsídios que foram instalados para proteger sua indústria de etanol, o que muda o campo de jogo da produção mundial de etanol para o futuro. Atualmente em todo o mundo, o etanol é usado em uma proporção muito menor comparativamente a outros combustíveis. Esta pesquisa analisa o nível potencial de colaboração entre os EUA e o Brasil, facilitando um diálogo entre os stakeholders em etanol. A pesquisa consiste principalmente de conversas e entrevistas, com base em um conjunto de perguntas destinadas a inspirar conversas detalhadas e expansivas sobre os temas de relações Brasil-EUA e etanol. Esta pesquisa mostra que o etanol celulósico, que é também conhecido como etanol de segunda geração, oferece mais oportunidades de parceria entre os EUA e o Brasil, como há mais oportunidades para pesquisa e desenvolvimento em conjunto e transferência de tecnologia nesta área. Enquanto o etanol de cana no Brasil ainda é uma indústria próspera e crescente, o milho e a cana são muito diferentes geneticamente para aplicar as mesmas inovações exatas de um etanol de primeira geração, por outro. As semelhanças entre os processos de fermentação e destilação entre as matérias-primas utilizadas nos EUA e no Brasil para o etanol de segunda geração torna o investimento conjunto nesta área mais sensível. De segunda geração é uma resposta para a questão "alimentos versus combustíveis". Esta pesquisa aplica o modelo de co-opetição como um quadro de parceria entre os EUA e o Brasil em etanol celulósico. A pesquisa mostra que enquanto o etanol pode não ser um forte concorrente com o petróleo no futuro imediato, ele tem melhores perspectivas de ser desenvolvido como um complemento ao petróleo, em vez de um substituto. Como os EUA e o Brasil tem culturas de misturar etanol com petróleo, algo da estrutura para isso já está em vigor, a relação de complementaridade seria fortalecido através de uma política de governo clara e de longo prazo. A pesquisa sugere que apenas através desta colaboração, com toda a partilha de conhecimentos técnicos e estratégias econômicas e de desenvolvimento, o etanol celulósico será um commodity negociado mundialmente e uma alternativa viável a outros combustíveis. As entrevistas com os interessados em que esta pesquisa se baseia foram feitas ao longo de 2012. Como a indústria de etanol é muito dinâmica, certos eventos podem ter ocorrido desde esse tempo para modificar ou melhorar alguns dos argumentos apresentados.

Supersymmetric Higgs boson pair production: Discovery prospects at hadron colliders

We study the potential of hadron colliders in the search for the pair production of neutral Higgs bosons in the framework of the minimal supersymmetric standard model. We perform a detailed signal and background analysis, working out efficient kinematical cuts for the extraction of the signal. The important role of squark loop contributions to the signal is re-emphasized. If the signal is sufficiently enhanced by these contributions, it could even be observable at the next run of the upgraded Tevatron collider in the near future. At the LHC the pair production of light and heavy Higgs bosons might be detectable simultaneously.

Situation and prospects of the family in Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

Application of nanotechnology for the encapsulation of botanical insecticides for sustainable agriculture: Prospects and promises

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Supernova detection in a future extension of the IceCube neutrino telescope

Marking the final explosive burning stage of massive stars, supernovae are onernthe of most energetic celestial events. Apart from their enormous optical brightnessrnthey are also known to be associated with strong emission of MeV neutrinos—up tornnow the only proven source of extrasolar neutrinos.rnAlthough being designed for the detection of high energy neutrinos, the recentlyrncompleted IceCube neutrino telescope in the antarctic ice will have the highestrnsensitivity of all current experiments to measure the shape of the neutrino lightrncurve, which is in the MeV range. This measurement is crucial for the understandingrnof supernova dynamics.rnIn this thesis, the development of a Monte Carlo simulation for a future low energyrnextension of IceCube, called PINGU, is described that investigates the response ofrnPINGU to a supernova. Using this simulation, various detector configurations arernanalysed and optimised for supernova detection. The prospects of extracting notrnonly the total light curve, but also the direction of the supernova and the meanrnneutrino energy from the data are discussed. Finally the performance of PINGU isrncompared to the current capabilities of IceCube.

Dendrogeomorphology in badlands: Methods, case studies and prospects

Soil and vegetation are interacting factors controlling erosion. Soil degradation processes may affect the normal tree and shrub development and inversely, vegetation can modulate the velocity and intensity of soil development or denudation. A dendrogeomorphological approach can be used to study these interactions, allowing to obtain a date and estimate mean or specific erosion rates. This is especially useful in an unrecorded badlands and gullied environments, where the scarce vegetation may be the only proxy available to quantify the different geomorphic processes which have occurred. This paper provides a fundamental review of the dendrogeomorphological methodology applied to erosion measurement in badlands. Focusing on the response of the vegetation to the geomorphic processes, this paper: (a) describes the methodology developed to estimate erosion rates with exposed roots; (b) shows new advances through case studies; and finally, (c) discusses future lines of research to reduce methodological uncertainties and for making dendrogeomorphology more widely applicable.

The future of fluorides and other protective agents in erosion prevention

The effectiveness of fluoride in caries prevention has been convincingly proven. In recent years, researchers have investigated the preventive effects of different fluoride formulations on erosive tooth wear with positive results, but their action on caries and erosion prevention must be based on different requirements, because there is no sheltered area in the erosive process as there is in the subsurface carious lesions. Thus, any protective mechanism from fluoride concerning erosion is limited to the surface or the near surface layer of enamel. However, reports on other protective agents show superior preventive results. The mechanism of action of tin-containing products is related to tin deposition onto the tooth surface, as well as the incorporation of tin into the near-surface layer of enamel. These tin-rich deposits are less susceptible to dissolution and may result in enhanced protection of the underlying tooth. Titanium tetrafluoride forms a protective layer on the tooth surface. It is believed that this layer is made up of hydrated hydrogen titanium phosphate. Products containing phosphates and/or proteins may adsorb either to the pellicle, rendering it more protective against demineralization, or directly to the dental hard tissue, probably competing with H(+) at specific sites on the tooth surface. Other substances may further enhance precipitation of calcium phosphates on the enamel surface, protecting it from additional acid impacts. Hence, the future of fluoride alone in erosion prevention looks grim, but the combination of fluoride with protective agents, such as polyvalent metal ions and some polymers, has much brighter prospects.

Achievements and Prospects of Tef Improvement - Proceedings of the Second International Workshop, November 7-9, 2011, Debre Zeit, Ethiopia

These proceedings on ‘Achievements and Prospects of tef Improvement’ is the outcome of the Second International Tef Workshop held at Debre Zeit (Ethiopia), the location which represents the major tef growing areas in the country as well as the oldest and biggest center on tef research. As an indigenous crop, the bulk of tef research is carried out in the country by scientists based at various higher-learning and research institutions. Hence, unlike major crops of the world such as wheat and rice, research on tef benefited little from modern improvement techniques. However, in the recent years, there is an increasing interest by several researchers and funding organizations in developed nations to promote tef research and development through implementation of modern genetic and genomic tools. The recent efforts and progresses made on tef research and development were presented and discussed in detail at the workshop. The tef research and development in Ethiopia has recently shown tremendous improvement. This is witnessed by the decision of the Ethiopian government to award a Gold Medal in November 2012 to our Institute for the discovery and promotion of a very popular Quncho variety. At this juncture, I would like to congratulate all involved in research and development of tef as the achievement was obtained due to concerted efforts of the tef community. The editors of the proceedings did a wonderful job of undertaking the painstaking task of editing all 23 manuscripts presented at the workshop. In addition, the proceedings include a 44-point roadmap for future tef research and development which can be used as a guideline for researchers, development workers and policy makers. I would like to extend my thanks to sponsors of the workshop and the publication of the proceedings.

Prospects for Development of the Garment Industry in Developing Countries: What Has Happened Since the MFA Phase-Out?

On January 1, 2005, the controlled trade regime on textiles and clothing which was based on the Multi-Fiber Arrangement (MFA) made in 1974 was abolished. This institutional change wrought great impacts on the world market for textiles and clothing.This paper reviews the impacts of the changes on the main markets and examines the prospects for the markets and the source countries. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) after the renewal of quantitative restrictions on Chinese garment exports were agreed with the US and the EU, the post-MFA surge in Chinese garment exports was significantly attenuated; (2) instead, the growth in garment exports from other Asian low-income countries to the two markets was revived in 2006; (3) the Japanese market has been kept almost intact from the impact of the regime shift; (4) some developing countries, such as Bangladesh and Cambodia, not only survived the liberalization but also have steadily expanded their garment exports throughout the transition; and (5) an indicative fact is that the profitability of the garment industry in Bangladesh and Cambodia was high on average according to surveys conducted in 2003, which might have bolstered the steady growth of garment exports in the past, and possibly future growth, too.

Future trends in Animal Breeding due to new genetic tecnologies

The Darwin theory of evolution by natural selection is based on three principles: (a) variation; (b) inheritance; and (c) natural selection. Here, I take these principles as an excuse to review some topics related to the future research prospects in Animal Breeding. With respect to the first principle I describe two forms of variation different from mutation that are becoming increasingly important: variation in copy number and microRNAs. With respect to the second principle I comment on the possible relevance of non-mendelian inheritance, the so-called epigenetic effects, of which the genomic imprinting is the best characterized in domestic species. Regarding selection principle I emphasize the importance of selection for social traits and how this could contribute to both productivity and animal welfare. Finally, I analyse the impact of molecular biology in Animal Breeding, the achievements and limitations of quantitative trait locus and classical marker-assisted selection and the future of genomic selection

Laser Driven Neutron Sources: Characteristics, Applications and Prospects

The basics of laser driven neutron sources, properties and possible applications are discussed. We describe the laser driven nuclear processes which trigger neutron generation, namely, nuclear reactions induced by laser driven ion beam (ion n), thermonuclear fusion by implosion and photo-induced nuclear (gamma n) reactions. Based on their main properties, i.e. point source (<100 μm) and short durations (< ns), different applications are described, such as radiography, time-resolved spectroscopy and pump-probe experiments. Prospects on the development of laser technology suggest that, as higher intensities and higher repetition rate lasers become available (for example, using DPSSL technology), laser driven methodologies may provide neutron fluxes comparable to that achieved by accelerator driven neutron sources in the near future.