Exploration of the parameter space in an agent-based model of tuberculosis spread: emergence of drug resistance in developing vs developed countries

In this work we present an agent-based model for the spread of tuberculosis where the individuals can be infected with either drug-susceptible or drug-resistant strains and can also receive a treatment. The dynamics of the model and the role of each one of the parameters are explained. The whole set of parameters is explored to check their importance in the numerical simulation results. The model captures the beneficial impact of the adequate treatment on the prevalence of tuberculosis. Nevertheless, depending on the treatment parameters range, it also captures the emergence of drug resistance. Drug resistance emergence is particularly likely to occur for parameter values corresponding to less efficacious treatment, as usually found in developing countries.

Prominent Effect of Soil Network Heterogeneity on Microbial Invasion

Using a network representation for real soil samples and mathematical models for microbial spread, we show that the structural heterogeneity of the soil habitat may have a very significant influence on the size of microbial invasions of the soil pore space. In particular, neglecting the soil structural heterogeneity may lead to a substantial underestimation of microbial invasion. Such effects are explained in terms of a crucial interplay between heterogeneity in microbial spread and heterogeneity in the topology of soil networks. The main influence of network topology on invasion is linked to the existence of long channels in soil networks that may act as bridges for transmission of microorganisms between distant parts of soil.

A Cost-Effectiveness-Assessing Model of Vaccination for Varicella and Zoster

A decision analytical model is presented and analysed to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of routine vaccination against varicella and herpes-zoster, or shingles. These diseases have as common aetiological agent the varicella-zoster virus (VZV). Zoster can more likely occur in aged people with declining cell-mediated immunity. The general concern is that universal varicella vaccination might lead to more cases of zoster: with more vaccinated children exposure of the general population to varicella infectives become smaller and thus a larger proportion of older people will have weaker immunity to VZV, leading to more cases of reactivation of zoster. Our compartment model shows that only two possible equilibria exist, one without varicella and the other one where varicella arid zoster both thrive. Threshold quantities to distinguish these cases are derived. Cost estimates on a possible herd vaccination program are discussed indicating a possible tradeoff choice.

Chronic pain associated with the Chikungunya Fever: long lasting burden of an acute illness

Abstract Background Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is responsible for major epidemics worldwide. Autochthonous cases were recently reported in several European countries. Acute infection is thought to be monophasic. However reports on chronic pain related to CHIKV infection have been made. In particular, the fact that many of these patients do not respond well to usual analgesics suggests that the nature of chronic pain may be not only nociceptive but also neuropathic. Neuropathic pain syndromes require specific treatment and the identification of neuropathic characteristics (NC) in a pain syndrome is a major step towards pain control. Methods We carried out a cross-sectional study at the end of the major two-wave outbreak lasting 17 months in Réunion Island. We assessed pain in 106 patients seeking general practitioners with confirmed infection with the CHIK virus, and evaluated its impact on quality of life (QoL). Results The mean intensity of pain on the visual-analogical scale (VAS) was 5.8 ± 2.1, and its mean duration was 89 ± 2 days. Fifty-six patients fulfilled the definition of chronic pain. Pain had NC in 18.9% according to the DN4 questionnaire. Conversely, about two thirds (65%) of patients with NC had chronic pain. The average pain intensity was similar between patients with or without NC (6.0 ± 1.7 vs 6.1 ± 2.0). However, the total score of the Short Form-McGill Pain Questionnaire (SF-MPQ)(15.5 ± 5.2 vs 11.6 ± 5.2; p < 0.01) and both the affective (18.8 ± 6.2 vs 13.4 ± 6.7; p < 0.01) and sensory subscores (34.3 ± 10.7 vs 25.0 ± 9.9; p < 0.01) were significantly higher in patients with NC. The mean pain interference in life activities calculated from the Brief Pain Inventory (BPI) was significantly higher in patients with chronic pain than in patients without it (6.8 ± 1.9 vs 5.9 ± 1.9, p < 0.05). This score was also significantly higher in patients with NC than in those without such a feature (7.2 ± 1.5 vs 6.1 ± 1.9, p < 0.05). Conclusions There exists a specific chronic pain condition associated to CHIKV. Pain with NC seems to be associated with more aggressive clinical picture, more intense impact in QoL and more challenging pharmacological treatment.

Detection of DENV-4 genotype I from mosquitoes collected in the city of Manaus, Brazil

Background Dengue epidemics have been reported in Brazil since 1981. In Manaus, a large city in the Amazon region, dengue is endemic with all four-virus serotypes (DENV-1, -2, -3, and -4) simultaneously causing human disease. In 2008, during a surveillance of dengue virus in mosquitoes in the district of Tancredo Neves in Manaus, 260 mosquitoes of Aedes genus were captured, identified and grouped into pools of 10 mosquitoes. Findings RNA extracts of mosquito pools were tested by a RT-Hemi-Nested-PCR for detection of flaviviruses. One amplicon of 222 bp, compatible with dengue virus serotype 4, was obtained from a pool of Aedes aegypti. The nucleotide sequence of the amplicon indicated that the mosquitoes were infected with DENV-4 of genotype I. This virus of Asian origin has been described in Manaus in 2008 infecting acute febrile illness patients. Conclusion This is the first report of dengue virus serotype 4 genotype I infecting Aedes aegypti in the Americas.

Epidemia midiática: produção de sentidos e configuração social da febre amarela na cobertura jornalística, 2007-2008

O objetivo deste artigo, situado no campo da comunicação em saúde, é analisar os sentidos atribuídos discursivamente à febre amarela silvestre durante a cobertura jornalística da epizootia da doença, ocorrida no Brasil no verão 2007-2008. Utilizando o referencial teórico das práticas discursivas e da produção de sentidos no cotidiano e as hipóteses de agendamento (agenda-setting) e enquadramento (framing) da notícia, foram analisadas todas as matérias sobre febre amarela veiculadas pelo jornal Folha de S. Paulo, no período de 21 de dezembro de 2007 a 29 de fevereiro de 2008, e todos os documentos oficiais sobre a epizootia emitidos pela autoridade brasileira de saúde pública entre 3 de janeiro e 28 de fevereiro de 2008. Os achados indicam que as estratégias discursivas da cobertura jornalística relativizaram o discurso da autoridade de saúde pública; priorizaram a divulgação do número de casos; enfatizaram a vacinação como o limite entre a vida e a morte, omitindo riscos do uso indiscriminado do imunobiológico; e propagaram a iminência de uma epidemia de febre amarela de grandes proporções. Essas estratégias deram novos sentidos à doença, deslocando o evento de sua forma silvestre, espacialmente restrita e de gravidade limitada, para a urbana, de caráter epidêmico e potencialmente mais grave. Secundariamente, o estudo permitiu identificar os impactos desse discurso midiático sobre o sistema nacional de imunização e os riscos a que a população foi exposta em função dos sentidos produzidos: em 2008, foram registrados 8 casos de reação grave à vacina, dos quais 6 foram a óbito.

Curanderos, sanadores y santiguadoras en Lanzarote entre los siglos XVI y XIX

[ES] Curanderos y sanadores nacieron ante la necesidad de hacer frente a los escasos medios que tenía la isla para curar sus enfermedades, la poca confianza que les daban los conquistadores y sobre todo ante la aparición de nuevas epidemias y plagas, que año tras año dejaban los visitantes y transeúntes. Partiendo de la premisa de que la “magia” popular es utilitaria, un medio para lograr un fin.

Epatite E: ruolo del suino nella trasmissione dell'infezione all'uomo, studio di prevalenza in aree rurali della Bolivia

L’infezione da virus dell’ epatite E (HEV) nei suini e nell’uomo è stata segnalata in diversi Paesi. Nei suini, il virus causa infezioni asintomatiche, mentre nell’uomo è responsabile di epidemie di epatite ad andamento acuto nei Paesi a clima tropicale o subtropicale con condizioni igieniche scadenti, di casi sporadici in quelli sviluppati. HEV è stato isolato anche in diversi animali e l’analisi nucleotidica degli isolati virali di origine animale ha mostrato un elevato grado di omologia con i ceppi di HEV umani isolati nelle stesse aree geografiche, avvalorando l’ipotesi che l'infezione da HEV sia una zoonosi. In America del Sud HEV suino è stato isolato per la prima volta in suini argentini nel 2006, mentre solo dal 1998 esistono dati sull’ infezione da HEV nell’uomo in Bolivia. In questa indagine è stato eseguito uno studio di sieroprevalenza in due comunità rurali boliviane e i risultati sono stati confrontati con quelli dello studio di sieroprevalenza sopra menzionato condotto in altre zone rurali della Bolivia. Inoltre, mediante Nested RT-PCR, è stata verificata la presenza di HEV nella popolazione umana e suina. La sieroprevalenza per anticorpi IgG anti-HEV è risultata pari al 6,2%, molto simile a quella evidenziata nello studio precedente. La prevalenza maggiore (24%) si è osservata nei soggetti di età compresa tra 41 e 50 anni, confermando che l’ infezione da HEV è maggiore fra i giovani-adulti. La ricerca di anticorpi anti HEV di classe IgM eseguita su 52 sieri ha fornito 4 risultati positivi. Il genoma virale è stato identificato in uno dei 22 pool di feci umane e l'esame virologico di 30 campioni individuali fecali e 7 individuali di siero ha fornito rispettivamente risultati positivi in 4/30 e 1/7. La Nested RT-PCR eseguita sui 22 pool di feci suine ha dato esito positivo in 7 pool. L’analisi delle sequenze genomiche di tutti gli amplificati ha consentito di stabilire che gli isolati umani appartenevano allo stesso genotipo III di quelli suini e presentavano con questi una elevata omologia aminoacidica (92%).

Sviluppo di mezzi e sistemi di sorveglianza e monitoraggio dei ditteri culicidi di importanza sanitaria

Nel corso degli ultimi anni le problematiche legate al ruolo vettore delle zanzare stanno emergendo sia per quanto riguarda l’uomo che gli animali allevati e selvatici. Diversi arbovirus come West Nile, Chikungunya, Usutu e Dengue, possono facilmente spostarsi a livello planetario ed essere introdotti anche nei nostri territori dove possono dare avvio a episodi epidemici. Le tecniche di monitoraggio e sorveglianza dei Culicidi possono essere convenientemente utilizzate per il rilevamento precoce dell’attività virale sul territorio e per la stima del rischio di epidemie al fine dell’adozione delle opportune azioni di Sanità Pubblica. Io scopo della ricerca del dottorato è inserito nel contesto dei temi di sviluppo del Piano regionale sorveglianza delle malattie trasmesse da vettori in Emilia Romagna. La ricerca condotta è inquadrata prevalentemente sotto l’aspetto entomologico applicativo di utilizzo di dispositivi (trappole) che possano catturare efficacemente possibili insetti vettori. In particolare questa ricerca è stata mirata allo studio comparativo in campo di diversi tipi di trappole per la cattura di adulti di zanzara, cercando di interpretare i dati per capire un potenziale valore di efficacia/efficienza nel rilevamento della circolazione virale e come supporto alla pianificazione della rete di sorveglianza dal punto di vista operativo mediante dispositivi adeguati alle finalità d’indagine. Si è cercato di trovare un dispositivo idoneo, approfondendone gli aspetti operativi/funzionali, ai fini di cattura del vettore principale del West Nile Virus, cioè la zanzara comune, da affiancare all’unica tipologia di trappola usata in precedenza. Le prove saranno svolte sia in campo che presso il laboratorio di Entomologia Medica Veterinaria del Centro Agricoltura Ambiente “G. Nicoli” di Crevalcore, in collaborazione con il Dipartimento di Scienze e Tecnologie Agroambientali della Facoltà di Agraria dell’Università di Bologna.

Multiple pathogen detection using nanoplasmonic sensing

Opportunistic diseases caused by Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) is an omnipresent global challenge. In order to manage these epidemics, we need to have low cost and easily deployable platforms at the point-of-care in high congestions regions like airports and public transit systems. In this dissertation we present our findings in using Localized Surface Plasmon Resonance (LSPR)-based detection of pathogens and other clinically relevant applications using microfluidic platforms at the point-of-care setting in resource constrained environment. The work presented here adopts the novel technique of LSPR to multiplex a lab-on-a-chip device capable of quantitatively detecting various types of intact viruses and its various subtypes, based on the principle of a change in wavelength occurring when metal nano-particle surface is modified with a specific surface chemistry allowing the binding of a desired pathogen to a specific antibody. We demonstrate the ability to detect and quantify subtype A, B, C, D, E, G and panel HIV with a specificity of down to 100 copies/mL using both whole blood sample and HIV-patient blood sample discarded from clinics. These results were compared against the gold standard Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-qPCR). This microfluidic device has a total evaluation time for the assays of about 70 minutes, where 60 minutes is needed for the capture and 10 minutes for data acquisition and processing. This LOC platform eliminates the need for any sample preparation before processing. This platform is highly multiplexable as the same surface chemistry can be adapted to capture and detect several other pathogens like dengue virus, E. coli, M. Tuberculosis, etc.

Transmission dynamics of Chlamydia trachomatis affect the impact of screening programmes

To assess the impact of screening programmes in reducing the prevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis, mathematical and computational models are used as a guideline for decision support. Unfortunately, large uncertainties exist about the parameters that determine the transmission dynamics of C. trachomatis. Here, we use a SEIRS (susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-susceptible) model to critically analyze the turnover of C. trachomatis in a population and the impact of a screening programme. We perform a sensitivity analysis on the most important steps during an infection with C. trachomatis. Varying the fraction of the infections becoming symptomatic as well as the duration of the symptomatic period within the range of previously used parameter estimates has little effect on the transmission dynamics. However, uncertainties in the duration of temporary immunity and the asymptomatic period can result in large differences in the predicted impact of a screening programme. We therefore analyze previously published data on the persistence of asymptomatic C. trachomatis infection in women and estimate the mean duration of the asymptomatic period to be longer than anticipated so far, namely 433 days (95% CI: 420-447 days). Our study shows that a longer duration of the asymptomatic period results in a more pronounced impact of a screening programme. However, due to the slower turnover of the infection, a substantial reduction in prevalence can only be achieved after screening for several years or decades.

Molecular epidemiology reveals long-term changes in HIV type 1 subtype B transmission in Switzerland

Sequence data from resistance testing offer unique opportunities to characterize the structure of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection epidemics.

The prevalence of penicillin-non-susceptible Streptococcus pneumoniae among children aged < 5 years correlates with the biannual epidemic activity of respiratory syncytial virus

This study investigated whether the epidemiology of penicillin-non-susceptible pneumococci (PNSP) colonising small children correlated with the biannual epidemic activity of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Colonisation rates and the prevalence of PNSP among paediatric outpatients aged < 5 years was analysed between January 1998 and September 2003 using an established national surveillance network. Resistance trends were investigated using time-series analysis to assess the correlation with the biannual pattern of RSV infections and national sales of oral paediatric formulations of antibiotics and antibiotic prescriptions to children aged < 5 years for acute respiratory tract infections. PNSP rates exhibited a biannual cycle in phase with the biannual seasonal RSV epidemics (p < 0.05). Resistance rates were higher during the winter seasons of 1998-1999 (20.1%), 2000-2001 (16.0%) and 2002-2003 (19.1%), compared with the winter seasons of 1997-1998 (8.2%), 1999-2000 (11.6%) and 2001-2002 (9.5%). Antibiotic sales and prescriptions showed regular peaks during each winter, with no significant correlation with the biannual pattern of RSV activity and seasonal trends of PNSP. RSV is an important determinant of the spread of PNSP and must be considered in strategies aimed at antimicrobial resistance control.

A 4-wk high-fructose diet alters lipid metabolism without affecting insulin sensitivity or ectopic lipids in healthy humans

BACKGROUND: High fructose consumption is suspected to be causally linked to the epidemics of obesity and metabolic disorders. In rodents, fructose leads to insulin resistance and ectopic lipid deposition. In humans, the effects of fructose on insulin sensitivity remain debated, whereas its effect on ectopic lipids has never been investigated. OBJECTIVE: We assessed the effect of moderate fructose supplementation on insulin sensitivity (IS) and ectopic lipids in healthy male volunteers (n = 7). DESIGN: IS, intrahepatocellular lipids (IHCL), and intramyocellular lipids (IMCL) were measured before and after 1 and 4 wk of a high-fructose diet containing 1.5 g fructose . kg body wt(-1) . d(-1). Adipose tissue IS was evaluated from nonesterified fatty acid suppression, hepatic IS from suppression of hepatic glucose output (6,6-2H2-glucose), and muscle IS from the whole-body glucose disposal rate during a 2-step hyperinsulinemic euglycemic clamp. IHCL and IMCL were measured by 1H magnetic resonance spectroscopy. RESULTS: Fructose caused significant (P < 0.05) increases in fasting plasma concentrations of triacylglycerol (36%), VLDL-triacylglycerol (72%), lactate (49%), glucose (5.5%), and leptin (48%) without any significant changes in body weight, IHCL, IMCL, or IS. IHCL were negatively correlated with triacylglycerol after 4 wk of the high-fructose diet (r = -0.78, P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Moderate fructose supplementation over 4 wk increases plasma triacylglycerol and glucose concentrations without causing ectopic lipid deposition or insulin resistance in healthy humans.