Vállalati értékteremtés vizsgálata az iparági teljesítmény tükrében

Az átfogó és összehasonlító teljesítménymérés szükséges bemeneti feltétele a vállalati értékteremtés vizsgálatának. A szerzők tanulmányukban célul tűzték ki, hogy egy általános keretrendszert állítanak fel a vállalati értékteremtés vizsgálatához, figyelembe véve a vállalati versenyképesség pénzügyi aspektusait. A megvalósításhoz releváns külföldi szakirodalmakat és a témára vonatkozó korábbi kutatásaikat használják fel. Bemutatnak egy elemzési keretet, amelynek alapjait a teljesítménymérés nemzetközileg elfogadott pénzügyi mutatószámai képezik. A módszertant a magyar élelmiszeripari feldolgozó ágazat egy speciális részterületén tesztelik a válság utáni időszak éves beszámolóit felhasználva. A mintát az iparági koncentráció alapján olyan vállalatok alkotják, amelyek magas árbevétellel és diverzifikált termékszerkezettel rendelkeznek. A komplex és összehasonlító teljesítményértékelésen túl a kiemelkedő versenyképességű társaság esetében vállalati szabad cash flow-alapú és reálopciós értékteremtés becslést is végeznek. Fő kutatási kérdésük, hogy a vizsgált iparági minta alapján a kiváló pénzügyi teljesítménnyel rendelkező vállalat esetén kimutatható-e vállalati értékteremtés is.

O tratamento dos créditos laborais no Direito Insolvencial

O presente estudo configura-se como uma proposta de análise das diversificadas consequências jurídicas que a declaração de insolvência de uma empresa pode produzir na esfera jurídica dos trabalhadores ao seu serviço. Inicia-se o trabalho com um enquadramento factual e jurídico do conceito de insolvência, que significa a incapacidade de cumprimento das obrigações, associada a critérios de “cash flow”, que não deverá ser confundido com os conceitos de insolvabilidade e incumprimento. Segue-se a apresentação das repercussões da insolvência da empresa nos contratos de trabalho de que é titular. Para o efeito, e tendo presente que esses efeitos jurídicos variarão em função do destino dado à empresa insolvente, procede-se ao estudo separado dessas mesmas consequências jurídicas na hipótese de manutenção e recuperação da empresa pelo próprio devedor, no caso de encerramento definitivo da empresa,- e ainda na eventualidade de esta recuperação ser levada a cabo por um terceiro,- a quem a empresa tenha sido transmitida no âmbito do processo de insolvência (saneamento por transmissão). Posteriormente, pensando sobretudo na hipótese da extinção do contrato de trabalho, procede-se à caracterização pormenorizada da tutela jurídica conferida aos créditos dos trabalhadores. Tutela esta que, em primeira linha, se concretiza na atribuição de privilégios creditórios aos créditos laborais que lhes confere uma preferência de pagamento no confronto com outros créditos em concurso. Dentro das garantias dos créditos laborais, apreciaremos a garantia proporcionada pelo Fundo de Garantia Salarial, distinguindo-o do FCT e do FGCT, o qual antecipa e paga, parte ou a totalidade, dos créditos que o trabalhador não consiga cobrar do empregador insolvente, visando acautelar eficazmente a função alimentar desempenhada pelo salário, ao disponibilizar em tempo útil as importâncias em dívida para que o trabalhador possa satisfazer as suas necessidades pessoais e, eventualmente, as do seu agregado familiar. Por último analisaremos os efeitos dos acordos de recuperação celebrados no âmbito do PER e do SIREVE, bem como do plano de pagamentos, nos créditos laborais.

Essays in Macro Finance

I study the link between capital markets and sources of macroeconomic risk. In chapter 1 I show that expected inflation risk is priced in the cross section of stock returns even after controlling for cash flow growth and volatility risks. Motivated by this evidence I study a long run risk model with a built-in inflation non-neutrality channel that allows me to decompose the real stochastic discount factor into news about current and expected cash flow growth, news about expected inflation and news about volatility. The model can successfully price a broad menu of assets and provides a setting for analyzing cross sectional variation in expected inflation risk premium. For industries like retail and durable goods inflation risk can account for nearly a third of the overall risk premium while the energy industry and a broad commodity index act like inflation hedges. Nominal bonds are exposed to expected inflation risk and have inflation premiums that increase with bond maturity. The price of expected inflation risk was very high during the 70's and 80's, but has come down a lot since being very close to zero over the past decade. On average, the expected inflation price of risk is negative, consistent with the view that periods of high inflation represent a "bad" state of the world and are associated with low economic growth and poor stock market performance. In chapter 2 I look at the way capital markets react to predetermined macroeconomic announcements. I document significantly higher excess returns on the US stock market on macro release dates as compared to days when no macroeconomic news hit the market. Almost the entire equity premium since 1997 is being realized on days when macroeconomic news are released. At high frequency, there is a pattern of returns increasing in the hours prior to the pre-determined announcement time, peaking around the time of the announcement and dropping thereafter.

Implications of FIN 46 for Accruals Quality and Investment Efficiency

The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) issued Interpretation No. 46 (FIN 46), Consolidation of Variable Interest Entities – An Interpretation of ARB No. 51, in January 2003 and revised it in December 2003, with the objective to improve the transparency of financial information. Under FIN 46, companies are required to consolidate variable interest entities (VIEs) on financial statements if they are the primary beneficiaries of the VIEs. This dissertation empirically examines whether the implementation of this new financial reporting guidance affects firms’ accruals quality and investment efficiency. A manually collected sample comprised of firms affected by FIN 46 and firms disclosing no material impact from FIN 46 is used in the empirical analyses.The first part of the dissertation investigates the effects of FIN 46 on accruals quality. By using different accrual quality measures in prior studies, this study found that firms affected by FIN 46 experienced a decrease in accrual quality compared to firms reporting no material impact from FIN 46. Among the firms affected by FIN 46, firms consolidating VIEs were compared with firms terminating or restructuring VIEs. The accruals quality of firms consolidating VIEs was found to be lower than that of firms terminating or restructuring VIEs. These results are consistent in tests using alternative control samples.The second part of this dissertation examines the effects of FIN 46 on investment efficiency. Mixed results were found from using two different proxies used in prior literature. Using the investment-cash flow sensitivity to proxy for investment efficiency, firms affected by FIN 46 experienced a decrease in investment efficiency compared to firms reporting no material impact. It was also found that higher investment-cash flow sensitivity for firms consolidating VIEs during post-FIN 46 periods compared to both the no-impact firms and the matched pair control sample. Contrasting results were found when the deviation from expected investment is used as another proxy for investment efficiency. Empirical analyses show that FIN 46 firms experienced improved investment efficiency measured by the deviation from expected investment after their adoption of FIN 46. This study also provides explanations for the opposite results from the two different proxies.

FX modelling under collateralization

We present the market practice for interest rate yield curves construction and pricing interest rate derivatives. Then we give a brief description of the Vasicek and the Hull-White models, with an example of calibration to market data. We generalize the classical Black-Scholes-Merton pricing formulas, considering more general cases such as perfect or partial collateral, derivatives on a dividend paying asset subject to repo funding, and multiple currencies. Finally we derive generic pricing formulae for different combinations of cash flow and collateral currencies, and we apply the results to the pricing of FX swaps and CCS, and we discuss curve bootstrapping.

Agency, Financial Flexibility, and Firm Value: Evidence from REITs

We show empirically that the use of unsecured debt, whose standard covenants commit management to the preservation of debt capacity, leads to lower and more stable leverage. We then show that firm value is sensitive to leverage levels and leverage stability, decreasing in the former and increasing in the latter. Our results support a liquidity-centric version of Jensen's (1986) free cash flow argument. In this version, self-serving managerial tendencies are reigned in without raising leverage indiscriminately, so that financial flexibility is preserved.

Metodología para la medición del riesgo de liquidez en una cooperativa financiera

Este trabajo plantea la implementación de una metodología para la medición del riego de liquidez al modelo interno adoptado por CONFIAR Cooperativa Financiera, haciendo énfasis en proyecciones estadísticas de los depósitos y retiros de cuentas de ahorro a la vista, depósitos y retiros de aportes sociales, captaciones en contratos de depósito a término, captaciones en depósitos contractuales y los desembolsos de créditos, a través del modelo de series de tiempo para la construcción del flujo de caja, conforme a lo exigido por la Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia.

Afectación de la TIR por materialización de riesgos en proyectos de infraestructura vial

El presente trabajo de grado, tuvo como propósito identificar los riesgos presentes en la construcción de un proyecto de infraestructura vial y analizar cuál sería su impacto en la Tasa Interna de Retorno TIR, en caso de que estos se materialicen -- Para dar cumplimiento a estos objetivos se realizó el estudio de varios proyectos de infraestructura vial apoyado en visitas aprovechando las nuevas concesiones viales que surgen en el País como es el caso de las 4G o cuarta generación de concesiones viales, al igual que se utilizaron modelos de simulación, para representar los escenarios en los cuales los riesgos se puede presentar y afectar la inversión realizada, afectando los ingresos esperados a futuro

Uso del indicador del retorno total del negocio como alternativa para optimizar la inversión en unidades de negocio en condiciones de incertidumbre

En este articulo se hace un análisis sobre la validez de la TBR (Total Bussines return) como medida de rentabilidad de unidades de negocio que pertenecen a un portafolio corporativo. Se establecen cuales son sus debilidades y en que casos es posible aceptarla como medida de rentabilidad asociada con la creación de valor. Se expone, la coincidencia matemática entre la TBR y el WACC (costo promedio ponderado de capital) a partir del descuento de flujos de caja proyectados y entre el CAV (creación adicional de valor) y la diferencia entre el ingreso económico obtenido y el ingreso económico esperado en un periodo determinado. También se evidencia la equivalencia entre el CAV y la variación del valor de las operaciones más la variación del flujo de caja del periodo. Posteriormente se realiza una aplicación para mostrar como puede utilizar la TBR y la teoría moderna de portafolio para que un gerente corporativo pueda controlar la relación rendimiento-riesgo existente entre las distintas unidades de negocio a cargo de su corporación.

Essays in Corporate Finance

Prior research has been divided regarding how firms respond to bankruptcy risk, largely revolving around two competing forces. On the one hand, asset substitution encourages firms to increase the riskiness of assets to extract value from creditors. On the other, firms want to minimize bankruptcy risk, either by reducing cash flow risk or through increasing the size of the firm. I test these two theories using a natural experiment of chemicals used in production processes being newly identified as carcinogenic to explore how firms may respond to potential negative cash flow resulting from litigation risk. I use plantlevel chemical data to study firm exposure to risk. I examine how responses between firms of differing levels of chemical exposure may vary within the industry, how firm financial distress affects firm response and whether public and private firms respond differently. In general, my research provides support for the asset substitution theory. My first paper studies how investment response varies based on level of carcinogenic exposure. I find that firms with moderate levels of exposure make efforts to mitigate their cash flow risk and reduce their exposure. At the same time, firms with high levels of exposure increase their exposure and riskiness of future cash flows. These findings are consistent with asset substitution theory. My second paper analyzes the interaction of financial distress and risk exposure. I find that firms in a stronger financial position are more likely to limit their exposure by reducing the number of exposed facilities. On the other hand, not only do firms in weaker financial position not decrease their exposure, I find that, in some instances, they increase their exposure to carcinogens. This work again supports the theory of asset substitution. Finally, in my third paper, I explore if public firms respond differently to a potential negative cash flow shock than do private firms. I test whether existing public firms are more likely to attempt to minimize their cash flow risk and thus reduce their carcinogen exposure than are private firms. I do not find evidence that public firms respond differently to this shock than do private firms.

Efeitos da fusão num grupo grupo de empresas do mesmo setor

Mestrado em Controlo de Gestão e dos Negócios

Os determinantes da liquidez: evidência nas empresas portuguesas cotadas na Euronet Lisbon

Neste estudo são analisados, através de técnicas adequadas para dados em painel, os determinantes da liquidez das empresas portuguesas cotadas na Euronext Lisbon. Para a concretização do mesmo foi utilizada uma amostra de 40 empresas, para o período de 2000 a 2014, sendo este período dividido em dois subperíodos, o antes e o depois da crise. Os resultados evidenciam a existência de uma relação entre algumas das variáveis independentes e a variável dependente. De facto, antes da crise, verifica-se que as oportunidades de crescimento e a probabilidade de dificuldades financeiras são significativas para o nível da liquidez, sendo que, depois da crise, as variáveis explicativas do nível de liquidez são a volatilidade dos fluxos de caixa, o ciclo de conversão de caixa e a probabilidade de dificuldades financeiras.

O contributo da informação por segmentos nos testes de imparidade ao goodwill - Aplicação ao caso da EDP no segmento EDP Renováveis

Mestrado em Contabilidade

Essays in corporate finance

China has been growing rapidly over the last decades. The private sector is the driving force of this growth. This thesis focuses on firm-level investment and cash holdings in China, and the chapters are structured around the following issues. 1. Why do private firms grow so fast when they are more financially constrained? In Chapter 3, we use a panel of over 600,000 firms of different ownership types from 1998 to 2007 to find the link between investment opportunities and financial constraints. The main finding indicates that private firms, which are more likely to be financially constrained, have high investment-investment opportunity sensitivity. Furthermore, this sensitivity is relatively lower for state-owned firms in China. This shows that constrained firms value investment opportunities more than unconstrained firms. To better measure investment opportunities, we attempt to improve the Q model by considering supply and demand sides simultaneously. When we capture q from the supply side and the demand side, we find that various types of firms respond differently towards different opportunity shocks. 2. In China, there are many firms whose cash flow is far greater than their fixed capital investment. Why is their investment still sensitive to cash flow? To explain this, in Chapter 4, we attempt to introduce a new channel to find how cash flow affects firm-level investment. We use a dynamic structural model and take uncertainty and ambiguity aversion into consideration. We find that uncertainty and ambiguity aversion will make investment less sensitive to investment opportunities. However, investment-cash flow sensitivity will increase when uncertainty is high. This suggests that investment cash flow sensitivities could still be high even when the firms are not financially constrained. 3. Why do firms in China hold so much cash? How can managers’ confidence affect corporate cash holdings? In Chapter 5, we analyse corporate cash holdings in China. Firms hold cash for precautionary reasons, to hedge frictions such as financing constraints and uncertainty. In addition, firms may act differently if they are confident or not. In order to determine how confidence shocks affect precautionary savings, we develop a dynamic model taking financing constraints, uncertainty, adjustment costs and confidence shocks into consideration. We find that without confidence shocks, firms will save money in bad times and invest in good times to maximise their value. However, if managers lose their confidence, they tend to save money in good times to use in bad times, to hedge risks and financing constraint problems. This can help explain why people find different results on the cash flow sensitivity of cash. Empirically, we use a panel of Chinese listed firms. The results show that firms in China save more money in good times, and the confidence shock channel can significantly affect firms’ cash holdings policy.