951 resultados para Decision Theory
Resumo:
We apply cooperative game theory concepts to analyze a Holt-Modigliani-Muth-Simon (HMMS) supply chain. The bullwhip effect in a two-stage supply chain (supplier-manufacturer) in the framework of the HMMS-model with quadratic cost functions is considered. It is assumed that both firms minimize their relevant costs, and two cases are examined: the supplier and the manufacturer minimize their relevant costs in a decentralized and in a centralized (cooperative) way. The question of how to share the savings of the decreased bullwhip effect in the centralized (cooperative) model is answered by the weighted Shapley value, by a transferable utility cooperative game theory tool, where the weights are for the exogenously given bargaining powers of the participants of the supply chain. = A cikkben a kooperatv jtkelmlet fogalmait alkalmazzuk egy Holt-Mogigliani-Muth-Simon-tpus elltsi lnc esetben. Az ostorcsaps-hats elemeit egy beszllt-termel elltsi lncban ragadjuk meg egy kvadratikus kszletezsi s termelsi kltsg mellett. Felttelezzk, hogy mindkt vllalat minimalizlja a relevns kltsgeit. Kt mkdsi rendszert hasonltunk ssze: egy hierarchikus dntshozatali rendszert, amikor elszr a termel, majd a beszllt optimalizlja helyzett, majd egy centralizlt (kooperatv) modellt, amikor a vllalatok az egyttes kltsgket minimalizljk. A krds gy merl fel, hogy a cskkentett ostorcsaps-hats esetn hogyan osszk meg a rszvevk ebben a transzferlhat hasznossg kooperatv jtkban a kltsg megtakartst, exogn mdon adott trgyalsi pozci mellett.
Resumo:
Mennyiben kpes jelenleg a kzssgi gazdasgtan az adpolitikk nemzetek fltti centralizcijra vonatkoz politikai dntsek megalapozsra? Vlaszunk rviden az lesz, hogy a kzssgi gazdasgtan frama - noha szmos relevns gazdasgi s politikai tnyez hatst sikeresen elemzi - jelenleg nem knl kielgtnek tekinthet dntsi kritriumokat a dntshozk szmra. Ennek oka, hogy kzponti szerepet jtszik benne egy, a modellek szempontjbl exogn s a kzgazdasgi elmlettl idegen tnyez: a kormnyzatok jindulatra, pontosabban annak mrtkre vonatkoz premissza. Tanulmnyunk az adverseny fisklis fderalista elmlett vizsglja, s megprbl ltalnosabb szinten is a kzszektor gazdasgelmletnek jelenlegi llapotra, valamint tovbbfejlesztsre vonatkoz tanulsgokat levonni. A kiutat az elmleti zskutcbl a kormnyzati mkds s dntshozatal, valamint a kvnatos gazdasgpolitikai dntsek elmletnek sszekapcsolsa jelentheti. Erre megtrtntek az els ksrletek, de a szisztematikus s tfog elemzs egyelre vrat magra. / === / How far can community economics provide a basis for political decision-making on supranational centralization of taxation policies? The short answer here will be that although the mainstream of community economics succeeds in analysing many relevant economic and political factors, it fails at present to provide satisfactory criteria for decisionmakers. This is because a central role is played in it by a factor exogenous to the models and alien to economic theory: the premise of the measure of goodwill from governments. The study examines the fiscal federalist theory of tax competition. It tries to draw conclusions, on a more general level, about the present state of the economic theory of the public sector and future development of it. The way out of the theoretical blind alley could be to link the theories of government operation and decision-making and of desirable economic-policy decision-making. The first attempts to do so have been made, but a systematic and comprehensive analysis is still awaited.
Resumo:
A szerz a megelgedsre trekv dntshozatalt s eszkzeinek, az egyszerst dntsi stratgiknak a hatkonysgi krdseit trgyalja. Az egyszerst stratgiknak s az alkalmazsukat tmogat attitdnek nemcsak az idt, hanem az informcikeress s - feldolgozs egyb kltsgvonzatait is tekintetbe vve szmos elnyk van. A szerz a szakirodalom rendszerezsvel rvilgt az egyni szint leegyszerstsek termszetre s pozitv hatsaikra. A bevezetst s a meghatrozsokat kveten az egyszerst stratgik hatkonysgi krdseit trgyalja a krnyezeti tnyezk fggvnyben, majd a dntshoz szemlyisgt s pszicholgiai jlltt rint sszefggsekrl r. A tanulmny vgn folyamatban lv empirikus kutatsnak krdseire tr r, mely kutats az zleti gyakorlat empirikus vizsglatval kvn hozzjrulni az eddig fknt laboratriumi ksrletek eredmnyeire pl tudshoz. ___________ Placing itself in the domain of bounded rationality theory, the article deals with the advantages of satisficing and of using decision heuristics. As to the approach to decision heuristics, the author stands on the positive side, not focusing on biases, but showing interest in the effectiveness potential in heuristics. As a review of recent literature, the article deals with different advantages of satisficing and of using simplifying strategies, be it cognitive advantages, the effectiveness, or advantages concerning the psychological well-being of the decision maker. Actual research questions of the adaptive toolbox approach, and the problem of determination by personality traits are presented based on the review of recent research results. Further research directions are indicated after the review. By presenting his research questions the author shows how he is willing to enrich the results of this research program by his own empirical work.
Resumo:
Herbert Simon, a korltozott racionalits elmletnek megalkotja szerint a dntshozatalunk hatkonysgt az hatrozza meg, hogy korltozott kognitv kapacitsaink birtokban milyen stratgikkal birkzunk meg a komplex krnyezet kihvsaival. Az erre az elmletre pt kutatsok egyik alapvetse, hogy az egyni problmamegoldsi folyamat helyzetspecifikus s ez az idomuls kulcsfontossg az eredmnyessgben s hatkonysgban. A dntshoz rendelkezik egy adaptv szerszmosldval, amelybl a megfelel helyzetekben a megfelel dntsi eljrsokat vlasztja. A tanulmnyban a szerz egy kvalitatv kutats eredmnyeire ptve, a beszlltvlaszts pldjn keresztl mutat be lehetsges vlaszokat a keveset kutatott krdsre: hogyan mkdik az adaptivits folyamata? A tanulmny a dntsi helyzethez val alkalmazkods kialakulst vizsglja a dntsi folyamatok kognitv szintjn. ______ Herbert Simon, the author of theory of bounded rationality claimed that the results of our decision-making is defined by the approprietness of strategies with which we handle the complexity of the environment with our bounded cognitive capacities. One of the main issues or research programs building on this theory is that problem solving is situation-specific, and the adjustment of strategies to actual situational factors is crucial for the effectiveness and efficiency of decision-making. The decision-maker possesses an adaptive toolbox, from which he chooses the right decision tools in the right situations. The author, based on the findnings of a qualitative study, presents possible answers to the not well-elaborated question: how does the process of adaptivity work? Forming of an adaptive mechanism is in the focus.
Resumo:
A knyvvizsglati kockzat a tves auditjelents kiadsnak kockzata olyan esetekben, amikor a beszmol lnyeges hibs lltst tartalmaz. Ez a kockzat indirekt mdon a hitelintzetek s pnzgyi vllalkozsok mkdsben is megjelenik azokban az esetekben, amikor a lnyeges hibs lltst a finanszrozott vllalkozs auditlt beszmolja tartalmazza, amelynek az alapjn finanszrozsi dntst hoznak, vagy a finanszrozs folytatsrl a beszmolban szerepl, hibs informcikbl szmtott hitelkovennsok alapjn dntenek. A knyvvizsglat kockzatban a vizsglt gazdlkod zleti kockzatai tkrzdnek vissza, ezrt a kockzat felmrse s az ellenrzs ennek alapjn val megtervezse, majd vgrehajtsa kulcsfontossg. Jelen tanulmny kapcsoldva a Hitelintzeti Szemle 2011. vi 4. szmhoz szintn a kockzat s bizonytalansg tmakrt trgyalja, pontosabban ennek egy gyakorlati vetlett: a bizonyossgfggvnyek (belief functions) alkalmazst a knyvvizsglatban; mindezt a teljessg s a tanknyvszer rendszerfelpts ignye nlkl. A mdszer ugyanis haznkban szinte ismeretlen, nemzetkzi viszonylatban viszont empirikus kutatsban is rmutattak mr az alkalmazs lehetsges elnyeire a hagyomnyos valsznsgelmleten alapul szmszer kockzatbecslsekkel szemben. Eszerint a bizonyossgfggvnyek jobban reprezentljk a knyvvizsglknak a kockzatrl alkotott kpt, mint a valsznsgek, mert szemben a hagyomnyos modellel nem kt, hanem hrom llapotot kezelnek: a pozitv bizonytk ltezst, a negatv bizonytk ltezst s a bizonytk hinynak esett. _______ Audit risk is the risk that the auditor expresses an inappropriate audit opinion when the fi nancial statements are materially misstated. This kind of risk indirectly appears in the fi nancial statements of fi nancial institutions, when the material misstatement is in the fi nanced entitys statements that serve as a basis for lending decisions or when the decision is made based upon credit covenants calculated from misstated information. The risks of the audit process refl ect the business risks of the auditee, so the assessment of risks, and further the planning and performance of the audit based on it is of key importance. The current study connecting to No 4 2011 of Hitelintzeti Szemle also discusses the topic of risk and uncertainty, or to be more precise a practical implementation of the aforementioned: the application of belief functions in the fi eld of external audit. All this without the aim of achieving completeness or textbook-like scrutiny in building up the theory. While the formalism is virtually unknown in Hungary, on the international scene empirical studies pointed out the possible advantages of the application of the method in contrast to risk assessments based on the traditional theory of probability. Accordingly, belief functions provide a better representation of auditors perception of risk, as in contrast to the traditional model, belief functions deal with three rather than two states: the existence of supportive evidence, that of negative evidence and the lack of evidence.
Resumo:
Ez a tanulmny a projektvezetsi szakirodalomban kialakult ismeretanyagot szem eltt tartva (noha ttelesen nem hivatkozva arra) trja fel azt a sajtos s tipikusnak nevezhet kontextust, amelyben a projektalap szervezetek projektmarketing tevkenysge megnyilvnul. A tanulmny clja teht nem magnak a projektmarketingnek a krdskrre irnyul, hanem elssorban annak projektspecifikus kontextusra. Jellegt illeten a tanulmny spekulatv jelleg, vagyis lnyegt tekintve nem empirikus kutatsi eredmnyekbl levont kvetkeztetsekre pl. _____ The author analyses the cognitive level of individual decisions by placing the adaptive decision-maker in the centre of interest. The main question is how do adaptive processes evolve and what factors determine the adaptive mechanism. The author builds on his own qualitative study conducted with the Grounded Theory Methodology in the SME sector. The supplier selection decision is chosen from the wide range of business decisions. From the research results the two elements of the adaptive mechanism the metastructure and the attitude set , the process of their evolution and the factors determining this process are presented. The findings here are a middle-range theory, which can be elaborated further, but they provide some interesting insights already.
Resumo:
Strategy is highly important for organisational success and the achievement of competitive advantage. Strategy is dynamic and it depends on accurate individual decision-making from medium and high-level managers and executives. Since managers always formulate strategy, its formulation depends mostly on their assertive decisions. Making good decisions is a complex task, even more in todays business world where a large quantity of information and a dynamic environment forces people to decide without having complete information. As Shafir, Simonson, & Tversky (1993) point out, "the making of decisions, both big and small, is often difficult because of uncertainty and conflict". In this paper the author will explain a basic theoretical framework about top manager's individual decision-making, showing how complex the process of making high-impact decisions is; then, he will compare this theory with one of the most important streams in strategic management, the Resource-Based View (RBV) of the firm. Finally, within the context of individual decision-making and the RBV stream, the author will show how individual decision makers in top management positions constitute a valuable, rare, non-imitable and non-substitutable resource that provides sustained competitive advantage.
Resumo:
This thesis develops and validates the framework of a specialized maintenance decision support system for a discrete part manufacturing facility. Its construction utilizes a modular approach based on the fundamental philosophy of Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM). The proposed architecture uniquely integrates System Decomposition, System Evaluation, Failure Analysis, Logic Tree Analysis, and Maintenance Planning modules. It presents an ideal solution to the unique maintenance inadequacies of modern discrete part manufacturing systems. Well established techniques are incorporated as building blocks of the system's modules. These include Failure Mode Effect and Criticality Analysis (FMECA), Logic Tree Analysis (LTA), Theory of Constraints (TOC), and an Expert System (ES). A Maintenance Information System (MIS) performs the system's support functions. Validation was performed by field testing of the system at a Miami based manufacturing facility. Such a maintenance support system potentially reduces downtime losses and contributes to higher product quality output. Ultimately improved profitability is the final outcome. ^
Resumo:
Understanding how decisions for international investments are made and how this affects the overall pattern of investments and firms performance is of particular importance both in strategy and international business research. This dissertation introduced first home-host country relatedness (HHCR) as the degree to which countries are efficiently combined within the investment portfolios of firms. It theorized and demonstrated that HHCR will vary with the motivation for investments along at least two key dimensions: the nature of foreign investments and the connectedness of potential host countries to the rest of the world. Drawing on cognitive psychology and decision-making research, it developed a theory of strategic decision making proposing that strategic solutions are chosen close to a convenient anchor. Building on research on memory imprinting, it also proposed that managers tend to rely on older knowledge representation. In the context of international investment decisions, managers use their home countries as an anchor and are more likely to choose as a site for foreign investments host countries that are close to the home country. These decisions are also likely to rely more strongly on closeness to time invariant country factors of historic and geographic nature rather than time-variant institutions. Empirical tests using comprehensive investments data by all public multinational companies (MNC) worldwide, or over 15,000 MNCs with over half a million subsidiaries, support the claims. Finally, the dissertation introduced the concept of International Coherence (IC) defined as the degree to which an MNEs network comprises countries that are related. It was hypothesized that maintaining a high level of coherence is important for firm performance and will enhance it. Also, the presence of international coherence mitigates some of the negative effects of unrelated product diversification. Empirical tests using data on foreign investments of over 20,000 public firms, while also developing a home-host country relatedness index for up to 24,300 home-host pairs, provided support for the theory advanced.
Resumo:
This study was conducted to understand (a) hospital social workers' perspectives about patients' personal autonomy and self-determination, (b) their experiences, and (c) their beliefs and behaviors. The study used the maximum variation sampling strategy to select hospitals and hospital social work respondents. Individual interviews were conducted with 31 medical/surgical and mental health hospital social workers who worked in 13 hospitals. The data suggest the following four points. First, the hospital setting as an outside influence as it relates to illness and safety, and its four categories, mentally alert patients, family members, health care professionals, and social work respondents, seems to enhance or diminish patients' autonomy in discharge planning decision making. Second, respondents report they believe patients must be safe both inside and outside the hospital. In theory, respondents support autonomy and self-determination, respect patients' wishes, and believe patients are the decision makers. However, in practice, respondents respect autonomy and self-determination to a point. Third, a model, The Patient's Decision in Discharge Planning: A Continuum, is presented where a safe discharge plan is at one end of a continuum, while an unsafe discharge plan is at the other end. Respondents respect personal autonomy and the patient's self-determination to a point. This point is likely to be located in a gray area where the patient's decision crosses from one end of the continuum to the other. When patients decide on an unsafe discharge plan, workers' interventions range from autonomy to paternalism. And fourth, the hospital setting as an outside influence may not offer the best opportunity for patients to make decisions (a) because of beliefs family members and health care professionals hold about the value of patient self-determination, and (b) because patients may not feel free to make decisions in an environment where they are surrounded by family members, health care professionals, and social work respondents who have power and who think they know best. Workers need to continue to educate elderly patients about their right to self-determination in the hospital setting. ^
Resumo:
The purpose of this study was to analyze the evolution of Florida state level policy efforts and to assess the responding educational policy development and implementation at the local school district level. The focus of this study was the secondary language arts curriculum in Miami-Dade County Public Schools. ^ Data was collected using document analysis as a source of meaning making out of the language sets proffered by agencies at each level. A matrix was created based on Klein's levels of curriculum decision-making and Functional Process Theory categories of policy formation. The matrix allowed the researcher to code and classify specific information in terms accountability/high-stakes testing; authority; outside influences; and operational/structural organization. ^ Federal policy documents provided a background and impetus for much of what originated at the State level. The State then produced policy directives which were accepted by the District and specific policy directives and guidelines for practice. No evidence was found indicating the involvement of any other agencies in the development, transmission or implementation of the State level initiated policies. ^ After analyzing the evolutionary process, it became clear that state policy directives were never challenged or discussed. Rather, they were accepted as standards to be met and as such, school districts complied. Policy implementation is shown to be a top-down phenomenon. No evidence was found indicating a dialogue between state and local systems, rather the state, as the source of authority, issued specifically worded policy directives and the district complied. Finally, this study recognizes that outside influences play an important role in shaping the education reform policy in the state of Florida. The federal government, through NCLB and other initiatives created a climate which led almost naturally to the creation of the Florida A+ Plan. Similarly, the concern of the business community, always interested in the production of competent workers, continued to support efforts at raising the minimum skill level of Florida high school graduates. ^ Suggestions are made for future research including the examination of local school sites in order to assess the overall nature of the school experience rather than rely upon performance indicators mandated by state policy. ^
Resumo:
Infrastructure management agencies are facing multiple challenges, including aging infrastructure, reduction in capacity of existing infrastructure, and availability of limited funds. Therefore, decision makers are required to think innovatively and develop inventive ways of using available funds. Maintenance investment decisions are generally made based on physical condition only. It is important to understand that spending money on public infrastructure is synonymous with spending money on people themselves. This also requires consideration of decision parameters, in addition to physical condition, such as strategic importance, socioeconomic contribution and infrastructure utilization. Consideration of multiple decision parameters for infrastructure maintenance investments can be beneficial in case of limited funding. Given this motivation, this dissertation presents a prototype decision support framework to evaluate trade-off, among competing infrastructures, that are candidates for infrastructure maintenance, repair and rehabilitation investments. Decision parameters' performances measured through various factors are combined to determine the integrated state of an infrastructure using Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT). The integrated state, cost and benefit estimates of probable maintenance actions are utilized alongside expert opinion to develop transition probability and reward matrices for each probable maintenance action for a particular candidate infrastructure. These matrices are then used as an input to the Markov Decision Process (MDP) for the finite-stage dynamic programming model to perform project (candidate)-level analysis to determine optimized maintenance strategies based on reward maximization. The outcomes of project (candidate)-level analysis are then utilized to perform network-level analysis taking the portfolio management approach to determine a suitable portfolio under budgetary constraints. The major decision support outcomes of the prototype framework include performance trend curves, decision logic maps, and a network-level maintenance investment plan for the upcoming years. The framework has been implemented with a set of bridges considered as a network with the assistance of the Pima County DOT, AZ. It is expected that the concept of this prototype framework can help infrastructure management agencies better manage their available funds for maintenance.
Resumo:
The purpose of this study was to analyze the evolution of Florida state level policy efforts and to assess the responding educational policy development and implementation at the local school district level. The focus of this study was the secondary language arts curriculum in Miami-Dade County Public Schools. Data was collected using document analysis as a source of meaning making out of the language sets proffered by agencies at each level. A matrix was created based on Klein's levels of curriculum decision-making and Functional Process Theory categories of policy formation. The matrix allowed the researcher to code and classify specific information in terms accountability/high-stakes testing; authority; outside influences; and operational/structural organization. Federal policy documents provided a background and impetus for much of what originated at the State level. The State then produced policy directives which were accepted by the District and specific policy directives and guidelines for practice. No evidence was found indicating the involvement of any other agencies in the development, transmission or implementation of the State level initiated policies. After analyzing the evolutionary process, it became clear that state policy directives were never challenged or discussed. Rather, they were accepted as standards to be met and as such, school districts complied. Policy implementation is shown to be a top-down phenomenon. No evidence was found indicating a dialogue between state and local systems, rather the state, as the source of authority, issued specifically worded policy directives and the district complied. Finally, this study recognizes that outside influences play an important role in shaping the education reform policy in the state of Florida. The federal government, through NCLB and other initiatives created a climate which led almost naturally to the creation of the Florida A+ Plan. Similarly, the concern of the business community, always interested in the production of competent workers, continued to support efforts at raising the minimum skill level of Florida high school graduates. Suggestions are made for future research including the examination of local school sites in order to assess the overall nature of the school experience rather than rely upon performance indicators mandated by state policy.
Resumo:
Maternity nursing practice is changing across Canada with the movement toward becoming baby friendly. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends the Baby-Friendly Hospital Initiative (BFHI) as a standard of care in hospitals worldwide. Very little research has been conducted with nurses to explore the impact of the initiative on nursing practice. The purpose of this study, therefore, was to examine the process of implementing the BFHI for nurses. The study was carried out using Corbin and Strausss method of grounded theory. Theoretical sampling was employed, which resulted in recruiting and interviewing 13 registered nurses whose area of employment included neonatal intensive care, postpartum, and labour and delivery. The data analysis revealed a central category of resisting the BFHI. All of the nurses disagreed with some of the 10 steps to becoming a baby-friendly hospital as outlined by the WHO. Participants questioned the science and safety of aspects of the BFHI. Also, participants indicated that the implementation of this program did not substantially change their nursing practice. They empathized with new mothers and anticipated being collectively reprimanded by management should they not follow the initiative. Five conditions influenced their responses to the initiative, which were (a) an awareness of a pro-breastfeeding culture, (b) imposition of the BFHI, (c) knowledge of the health benefits of breastfeeding, (d) experiential knowledge of infant feeding, and (e) the belief in the autonomy of mothers to decide about infant feeding. The identified outcomes were moral distress and division between nurses. The study findings could guide decision making concerning the implementation of the BFHI.
Resumo:
Concept evaluation at the early phase of product development plays a crucial role in new product development. It determines the direction of the subsequent design activities. However, the evaluation information at this stage mainly comes from experts' judgments, which is subjective and imprecise. How to manage the subjectivity to reduce the evaluation bias is a big challenge in design concept evaluation. This paper proposes a comprehensive evaluation method which combines information entropy theory and rough number. Rough number is first presented to aggregate individual judgments and priorities and to manipulate the vagueness under a group decision-making environment. A rough number based information entropy method is proposed to determine the relative weights of evaluation criteria. The composite performance values based on rough number are then calculated to rank the candidate design concepts. The results from a practical case study on the concept evaluation of an industrial robot design show that the integrated evaluation model can effectively strengthen the objectivity across the decision-making processes.
