Forecast convergence score: a forecaster's approach to analysing hydro-meteorological forecast systems.

In this paper the properties of a hydro-meteorological forecasting system for forecasting river flows have been analysed using a probabilistic forecast convergence score (FCS). The focus on fixed event forecasts provides a forecaster's approach to system behaviour and adds an important perspective to the suite of forecast verification tools commonly used in this field. A low FCS indicates a more consistent forecast. It can be demonstrated that the FCS annual maximum decreases over the last 10 years. With lead time, the FCS of the ensemble forecast decreases whereas the control and high resolution forecast increase. The FCS is influenced by the lead time, threshold and catchment size and location. It indicates that one should use seasonality based decision rules to issue flood warnings.

Approximation by harmonic polynomials in star-shaped domains and exponential convergence of Trefftz hp-dGFEM

We study the approximation of harmonic functions by means of harmonic polynomials in two-dimensional, bounded, star-shaped domains. Assuming that the functions possess analytic extensions to a delta-neighbourhood of the domain, we prove exponential convergence of the approximation error with respect to the degree of the approximating harmonic polynomial. All the constants appearing in the bounds are explicit and depend only on the shape-regularity of the domain and on delta. We apply the obtained estimates to show exponential convergence with rate O(exp(−b square root N)), N being the number of degrees of freedom and b>0, of a hp-dGFEM discretisation of the Laplace equation based on piecewise harmonic polynomials. This result is an improvement over the classical rate O(exp(−b cubic root N )), and is due to the use of harmonic polynomial spaces, as opposed to complete polynomial spaces.

Umami: a delicious flavor formed by convergence of taste and olfactory pathways in the human brain

Umami taste is produced by glutamate acting on a fifth taste system. However, glutamate presented alone as a taste stimulus is not highly pleasant, and does not act synergistically with other tastes (sweet, salt, bitter and sour). We show here that when glutamate is given in combination with a consonant, savory, odour (vegetable), the resulting flavor can be much more pleasant. Moreover, we showed using functional brain imaging with fMRI that the glutamate taste and savory odour combination produced much greater activation of the medial orbitofrontal cortex and pregenual cingulate cortex than the sum of the activations by the taste and olfactory components presented separately. Supralinear effects were much less (and significantly less) evident for sodium chloride and vegetable odour. Further, activations in these brain regions were correlated with the pleasantness and fullness of the flavor, and with the consonance of the taste and olfactory components. Supralinear effects of glutamate taste and savory odour were not found in the insular primary taste cortex. We thus propose that glutamate acts by the nonlinear effects it can produce when combined with a consonant odour in multimodal cortical taste-olfactory convergence regions. We propose the concept that umami can be thought of as a rich and delicious flavor that is produced by a combination of glutamate taste and a consonant savory odour. Glutamate is thus a flavor enhancer because of the way that it can combine supralinearly with consonant odours in cortical areas where the taste and olfactory pathways converge far beyond the receptors.

Disparity-driven vs blur-driven models of accommodation and convergence in binocular vision and intermittent strabismus

Background. Current models of concomitant, intermittent strabismus, heterophoria, convergence and accommodation anomalies are either theoretically complex or incomplete. We propose an alternative and more practical way to conceptualize clinical patterns. Methods. In each of three hypothetical scenarios (normal; high AC/A and low CA/C ratios; low AC/A and high CA/C ratios) there can be a disparity-biased or blur-biased “style”, despite identical ratios. We calculated a disparity bias index (DBI) to reflect these biases. We suggest how clinical patterns fit these scenarios and provide early objective data from small illustrative clinical groups. Results. Normal adults and children showed disparity bias (adult DBI 0.43 (95%CI 0.50-0.36), child DBI 0.20 (95%CI 0.31-0.07) (p=0.001). Accommodative esotropes showed less disparity-bias (DBI 0.03). In the high AC/A and low CA/C scenario, early presbyopes had mean DBI of 0.17 (95%CI 0.28-0.06), compared to DBI of -0.31 in convergence excess esotropes. In the low AC/A and high CA/C scenario near exotropes had mean DBI of 0.27, while we predict that non-strabismic, non-amblyopic hyperopes with good vision without spectacles will show lower DBIs. Disparity bias ranged between 1.25 and -1.67. Conclusions. Establishing disparity or blur bias, together with knowing whether convergence to target demand exceeds accommodation or vice versa explains clinical patterns more effectively than AC/A and CA/C ratios alone. Excessive bias or inflexibility in near-cue use increases risk of clinical problems. We suggest clinicians look carefully at details of accommodation and convergence changes induced by lenses, dissociation and prisms and use these to plan treatment in relation to the model.

Noisy Monte Carlo: convergence of Markov chains with approximate transition kernels

Monte Carlo algorithms often aim to draw from a distribution π by simulating a Markov chain with transition kernel P such that π is invariant under P. However, there are many situations for which it is impractical or impossible to draw from the transition kernel P. For instance, this is the case with massive datasets, where is it prohibitively expensive to calculate the likelihood and is also the case for intractable likelihood models arising from, for example, Gibbs random fields, such as those found in spatial statistics and network analysis. A natural approach in these cases is to replace P by an approximation Pˆ. Using theory from the stability of Markov chains we explore a variety of situations where it is possible to quantify how ’close’ the chain given by the transition kernel Pˆ is to the chain given by P . We apply these results to several examples from spatial statistics and network analysis.

Plane wave discontinuous Galerkin methods: exponential convergence of the hp-version

We consider the two-dimensional Helmholtz equation with constant coefficients on a domain with piecewise analytic boundary, modelling the scattering of acoustic waves at a sound-soft obstacle. Our discretisation relies on the Trefftz-discontinuous Galerkin approach with plane wave basis functions on meshes with very general element shapes, geometrically graded towards domain corners. We prove exponential convergence of the discrete solution in terms of number of unknowns.

Convergence and accommodation development is pre-programmed in premature infants

Purpose This study investigated whether vergence and accommodation development in pre-term infants is pre-programmed or is driven by experience. Methods 32 healthy infants, born at mean 34 weeks gestation (range 31.2-36 weeks) were compared with 45 healthy full-term infants (mean 40.0 weeks) over a 6 month period, starting at 4-6 weeks post-natally. Simultaneous accommodation and convergence to a detailed target were measured using a Plusoptix PowerRefII infra-red photorefractor as a target moved between 0.33m and 2m. Stimulus/response gains and responses at 0.33m and 2m were compared by both corrected (gestational) age and chronological (post-natal) age. Results When compared by their corrected age, pre-term and full-term infants showed few significant differences in vergence and accommodation responses after 6-7 weeks of age. However, when compared by chronological age, pre-term infants’ responses were more variable, with significantly reduced vergence gains, reduced vergence response at 0.33m, reduced accommodation gain, and increased accommodation at 2m, compared to full-term infants between 8-13 weeks after birth. Conclusions When matched by corrected age, vergence and accommodation in pre-term infants show few differences from full-term infants’ responses. Maturation appears pre-programmed and is not advanced by visual experience. Longer periods of immature visual responses might leave pre-term infants more at risk of development of oculomotor deficits such as strabismus.  

Follow the leaders? An analysis of convergence and innovation of faculty recruiting practices in US business schools

The debate associated with the qualifications of business school faculty has raged since the 1959 release of the Gordon–Howell and Pierson reports, which encouraged business schools in the USA to enhance their legitimacy by increasing their faculties’ doctoral qualifications and scholarly rigor. Today, the legitimacy of specific faculty qualifications remains one of the most discussed topics in management education, attracting the interest of administrators, faculty, and accreditation agencies. Based on new institutional theory and the institutional logics perspective, this paper examines convergence and innovation in business schools through an analysis of faculty hiring criteria. The qualifications examined are academic degree, scholarly publications, teaching experience, and professional experience. Three groups of schools are examined based on type of university, position within a media ranking system, and accreditation by the Association to Advance Collegiate Schools of Business. Data are gathered using a content analysis of 441 faculty postings from business schools based in the USA over two time periods. Contrary to claims of global convergence, we find most qualifications still vary by group, even in the mature US market. Moreover, innovative hiring is more likely to be found in non-elite schools.

Convergence accommodation in orthoptic practice

Aims. Orthoptists are familiar with AC/A ratios and the concept that accommodation drives convergence, but the reverse relationship, that of the accommodation associated with convergence, is rarely considered. Methods. This article reviews published evidence from our laboratory which has investigated the drives to both vergence and accommodation. All studies involved a method by which accommodation and vergence were measured concurrently and objectively to a range of visual stimuli which manipulate blur, disparity and proximal/looming cues in different combinations. Results Results are summarised for both typical and atypical participants, and over development between birth and adulthood. Conclusions For the majority of typical children and adults, as well as patients with most heterophorias and intermittent exotropia, disparity is the main cue to both vergence and accommodation. Thus the convergence→accommodation relationship is more influential than that of accommodative vergence. Differences in “style” of near cue use may be a more useful way to think about responses to stimuli moving in depth, and their consequences for orthoptic patients, than either AC/A or CA/C ratios. The implications of a strong role for vergence accommodation in orthoptic practice are considered.

Prevalence of Vitamin D Insufficiency in Brazilian Adolescents

Background/Aims: Cutaneous sun exposure and dietary vitamin D intake are important determinants of vitamin D status. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the vitamin D status of a group of healthy adolescent students living in Brazil. Methods: One hundred and thirty-six adolescents, 64 boys and 72 girls, aged 16-20 years old, living in a rural town in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, participated in this study. Results: The mean dietary vitamin D intake was 140 (120-156) IU/day [3.5 (3.0-3.9) mu g/day]. Only 14.9% of the students met the daily adequate intake recommendation of vitamin D. Only 27.9% practice physical activity outdoors and 17.6% of the adolescents apply sunscreen daily. The mean 25(OH)D concentration was 73.0 (22.0) nmol/l [29.2 (8.8) ng/ml]. Vitamin D insufficiency was observed in 60% of adolescents. Conclusions: The present study suggests that even in a sunny climate like Brazil the prevalence of vitamin D insufficiency in adolescents is high. Most likely this is due to low intakes of vitamin D in this group. Due to the limited extent of natural dietary sources of vitamin D, a policy of vitamin D food fortification should be considered in the future, and in the meantime greater use of vitamin D supplements in this population group should be encouraged to provide the increased amounts of this essential nutrient for optimal health. Copyright (C) 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel

DENSITY PROFILE, VELOCITY ANISOTROPY, AND LINE-OF-SIGHT EXTERNAL CONVERGENCE OF SLACS GRAVITATIONAL LENSES

Data from 58 strong-lensing events surveyed by the Sloan Lens ACS Survey are used to estimate the projected galaxy mass inside their Einstein radii by two independent methods: stellar dynamics and strong gravitational lensing. We perform a joint analysis of these two estimates inside models with up to three degrees of freedom with respect to the lens density profile, stellar velocity anisotropy, and line-of-sight (LOS) external convergence, which incorporates the effect of the large-scale structure on strong lensing. A Bayesian analysis is employed to estimate the model parameters, evaluate their significance, and compare models. We find that the data favor Jaffe`s light profile over Hernquist`s, but that any particular choice between these two does not change the qualitative conclusions with respect to the features of the system that we investigate. The density profile is compatible with an isothermal, being sightly steeper and having an uncertainty in the logarithmic slope of the order of 5% in models that take into account a prior ignorance on anisotropy and external convergence. We identify a considerable degeneracy between the density profile slope and the anisotropy parameter, which largely increases the uncertainties in the estimates of these parameters, but we encounter no evidence in favor of an anisotropic velocity distribution on average for the whole sample. An LOS external convergence following a prior probability distribution given by cosmology has a small effect on the estimation of the lens density profile, but can increase the dispersion of its value by nearly 40%.

Copy number variants on the X chromosome in women with primary ovarian insufficiency

Objective: To investigate whether submicroscopic copy number variants (CNVs) on the X chromosome can be identified in women with primary ovarian insufficiency (POI), defined as spontaneous secondary amenorrhea before 40 years of age accompanied by follicle-stimulating hormone levels above 40 IU/L on at least two occasions. Design: Analysis of intensity data of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) probes generated by genomewide Illumina 370k CNV BeadChips, followed by the validation of identified loci using a custom designed ultra-high-density comparative genomic hybridization array containing 48,325 probes evenly distributed over the X chromosome. Setting: Multicenter genetic cohort study in the Netherlands. Patient(s): 108 Dutch Caucasian women with POI, 97 of whom passed quality control, who had a normal karyogram and absent fragile X premutation, and 235 healthy Dutch Caucasian women as controls. Intervention(s): None. Main Outcome Measure(s): Amount and locus of X chromosomal microdeletions or duplications. Result(s): Intensity differences between SNP probes identify microdeletions and duplications. The initial analysis identified an overrepresentation of deletions in POI patients. Moreover, CNVs in two genes on the Xq21.3 locus (i.e., PCDH11X and TGIF2LX) were statistically significantly associated with the POI phenotype. Mean size of identified CNVs was 262 kb. However, in the validation study the identified putative Xq21.3 deletions samples did not show deviations in intensities in consecutive probes. Conclusion(s): X chromosomal submicroscopic CNVs do not play a major role in Caucasian POI patients. We provide guidelines on how submicroscopic cytogenetic POI research should be conducted. (Fertil Steril (R) 2011;95:1584-8. (C) 2011 by American Society for Reproductive Medicine.)