Fragility of information cascades: an experimental study using elicited beliefs

This paper examines the occurrence and fragility of information cascades in two laboratory experiments. One group of low informed participants sequentially guess which of two states has been randomly chosen. In a matched pairs design, another group of high informed participants make similar guesses after having observed the guesses of the low informed participants. In the second experiment, participants' beliefs about the chosen state are elicited. In equilibrium, low informed players who observe an established pattern of identical guesses herd without regard to their private information whereas high informed players always guess according to their private information. Equilibrium behavior implies that information cascades emerge in the group of low informed participants, the belief based solely on cascade guesses is stationary, and information cascades are systematically broken by high informed participants endowed with private information contradicting the cascade guesses. Experimental results show that the behavior of low informed participants is qualitatively in line with the equilibrium prediction. Information cascades often emerge in our experiments. The tendency of low informed participants to engage in cascade behavior increases with the number of identical guesses. Our main finding is that information cascades are not fragile. The behavior of high informed participants differs markedly from the equilibrium prediction. Only one-third of laboratory cascades are broken by high informed participants endowed with private information contradicting the cascade guesses. The relative frequency of cascade breaks is 15% for the situations where five or more identical guesses are observed. Participants' elicited beliefs are strongly consistent with their own behavior and show that, unlike in equilibrium, the more cascade guesses participants observe the more they believe in the state favored by those guesses.

Volume reduction of the corpus callosum and its relationship with deficits in interhemispheric transfer of information in recent-onset psychosis

The present study aimed to investigate the presence of corpus callosum (CC) volume deficits in a population-based recent-onset psychosis (ROP) sample, and whether CC volume relates to interhemispheric communication deficits. For this purpose, we used voxel-based morphometry comparisons of magnetic resonance imaging data between ROP (n = 122) and healthy control (n = 94) subjects. Subgroups (38 ROP and 39 controls) were investigated for correlations between CC volumes and performance on the Crossed Finger Localization Test (CFLT). Significant CC volume reductions in ROP subjects versus controls emerged after excluding substance misuse and non-right-handedness. CC reductions retained significance in the schizophrenia subgroup but not in affective psychoses subjects. There were significant positive correlations between CC volumes and CFLT scores in ROP subjects, specifically in subtasks involving interhemispheric communication. From these results, we can conclude that CC volume reductions are present in association with ROP. The relationship between such deficits and CFLT performance suggests that interhemispheric communication impairments are directly linked to CC abnormalities in ROP. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of Cyber-Security Issues on Smart Grid

Greater complexity and interconnectivity across systems embracing Smart Grid technologies has meant that cyber-security issues have attracted significant attention. This paper describes pertinent cyber-security requirements, in particular cyber attacks and countermeasures which are critical for reliable Smart Grid operation. Relevant published literature is presented for critical aspects of Smart Grid cyber-security, such as vulnerability, interdependency, simulation, and standards. Furthermore, a preliminary study case is given which demonstrates the impact of a cyber attack which violates the integrity of data on the load management of real power system. Finally, the paper proposes future work plan which focuses on applying intrusion detection and prevention technology to address cyber-security issues. This paper also provides an overview of Smart Grid cyber-security with reference to related cross-disciplinary research topics.

Evaluation of information extraction techniques to label extracted data from e-commerce web page

Automatically determining and assigning shared and meaningful text labels to data extracted from an e-Commerce web page is a challenging problem. An e-Commerce web page can display a list of data records, each of which can contain a combination of data items (e.g. product name and price) and explicit labels, which describe some of these data items. Recent advances in extraction techniques have made it much easier to precisely extract individual data items and labels from a web page, however, there are two open problems: 1. assigning an explicit label to a data item, and 2. determining labels for the remaining data items. Furthermore, improvements in the availability and coverage of vocabularies, especially in the context of e-Commerce web sites, means that we now have access to a bank of relevant, meaningful and shared labels which can be assigned to extracted data items. However, there is a need for a technique which will take as input a set of extracted data items and assign automatically to them the most relevant and meaningful labels from a shared vocabulary. We observe that the Information Extraction (IE) community has developed a great number of techniques which solve problems similar to our own. In this work-in-progress paper we propose our intention to theoretically and experimentally evaluate different IE techniques to ascertain which is most suitable to solve this problem.

Measuring non-use value of environmental goods using the contingent valuation method:problems of information and cognition and the application of cognitive questionnaire design methods

Much interest now focuses on the use of the contingent valuation method (CVM) to assess non-use value of environmental goods. The paper reviews recent literature and highlights particular problems of information provision and respondent knowledge, comprehension and cognition. These must be dealt with by economists in designing CVM surveys for eliciting non-use values. Cognitive questionnaire design methods are presented which invoke concepts from psychology and tools from cognitive survey design (focus groups and verbal reports) to reduce a complex environmnetal good into a meaningful commodity that can be valued by respondents in a contingent market. This process is illustrated with examples from the authors' own research valuing alternative afforestation programmes. -Authors

Absorption coefficient of particulate matter on the south-west coast of Europe: a contribution to the validation of the MERIS-Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer sensor

Dissolved oxygen (DO) is one of the most important environmental variables of water quality, especially for marine life. Consequently, oxygen is one of the Chemical Quality Elements required for the implementation of European Union Water Framework Directive. This study uses the example of the Ria Formosa, a meso-tidal lagoon on the south coast of Portugal to demonstrate how monitoring of water quality for coastal waters must be well designed to identify symptoms of episodic hypoxia. New data from the western end of the Ria Formosa were compared to values in a database of historical data and in the published literature to identify long-term trends. The dissolved oxygen concentration values in the database and in the literature were generally higher than those found in this study, where episodic hypoxia was observed during the summer. Analysis of the database showed that the discrepancy was probably related with the time and the sites where the samples had been collected, rather than a long-term trend. The most problematic situations were within the inner lagoon near the city of Faro, where episodic hypoxia (<2 mg dm3 DO) occurred regularly in the early morning. These results emphasise the need for a balanced sampling strategy for oxygen monitoring which includes all periods of the day and night, as well as a representative range of sites throughout the lagoon. Such a strategy would provide adequate data to apply management measures to reduce the risk of more persistent hypoxia that would impact on the ecological, important natural resource. economic and leisure uses of this important natural resource.

Enterprise architecture model: an approach proposition. A case study of information systems in the hospitality industry

This paper discusses the role of enterprise architecture representation, in the context of ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) information systems, as an instrument for an organization to reflect on itself and develop its business strategies and respective alignment with Information Systems. The paper proposes a representation model of enterprise architecture, as a tool for recommending good practices, and it emerges from a case study undertaken in the context of and investigation on advantages and limitations of ERP systems in the hospitality industry. The proposed approach is also inspired on other academic or market propositions suitable for the objectives of the investigation. It consists on a set of items representing the steps that must be taken by top managers and IS managers.

Using data envelopment analysis to assess the efficiency of social security systems: the case of income protection in old age

As the number of pensioners in Europe rises relative to the number of people in employment, the gap between the contributions and the benefit levels increases, and consequently ensuring adequate pensions on a sustainable basis has become a major challenge. This study aims to explore the potential of using the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) technique in order to access the efficiency of the income protection in old age, one of the most important branches of Social Security. To this effect, we collected data from the 27 European Union Member States regarding this branch. Our results show important differences among the Member States and stress the importance of identifying best practices to achieve more adequate, sustainable and modernised pension systems. Our results also highlight the importance of using DEA as a decision support tool for policy makers.