Rainfall variability at decadal and longer time scales: signal or noise?

Rainfall variability occurs over a wide range of temporal scales. Knowledge and understanding of such variability can lead to improved risk management practices in agricultural and other industries. Analyses of temporal patterns in 100 yr of observed monthly global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure data show that the single most important cause of explainable, terrestrial rainfall variability resides within the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) frequency domain (2.5-8.0 yr), followed by a slightly weaker but highly significant decadal signal (9-13 yr), with some evidence of lesser but significant rainfall variability at interclecadal time scales (15-18 yr). Most of the rainfall variability significantly linked to frequencies tower than ENSO occurs in the Australasian region, with smaller effects in North and South America, central and southern Africa, and western Europe. While low-frequency (LF) signals at a decadal frequency are dominant, the variability evident was ENSO-like in all the frequency domains considered. The extent to which such LF variability is (i) predictable and (ii) either part of the overall ENSO variability or caused by independent processes remains an as yet unanswered question. Further progress can only be made through mechanistic studies using a variety of models.

UMA ANÁLISE DA RELAÇÃO ENTRE VARIÁVEIS MACROECONÔMICAS E O COMPORTAMENTO DAS AÇÕES DE MAIOR LIQUIDEZ DO ÍNDICE IBOVESPA

As ações de maior liquidez do índice IBOVESPA, refletem o comportamento das ações de um modo geral, bem como a relação das variáveis macroeconômicas em seu comportamento e estão entre as mais negociadas no mercado de capitais brasileiro. Desta forma, pode-se entender que há reflexos de fatores que impactam as empresas de maior liquidez que definem o comportamento das variáveis macroeconômicas e que o inverso também é uma verdade, oscilações nos fatores macroeconômicos também afetam as ações de maior liquidez, como IPCA, PIB, SELIC e Taxa de Câmbio. O estudo propõe uma análise da relação existente entre variáveis macroeconômicas e o comportamento das ações de maior liquidez do índice IBOVESPA, corroborando com estudos que buscam entender a influência de fatores macroeconômicos sobre o preço de ações e contribuindo empiricamente com a formação de portfólios de investimento. O trabalho abrangeu o período de 2008 a 2014. Os resultados concluíram que a formação de carteiras, visando a proteção do capital investido, deve conter ativos com correlação negativa em relação às variáveis estudadas, o que torna possível a composição de uma carteira com risco reduzido.

Distribution of neodymium isotopes and concentrations during M77/3 and M77/4

The radiogenic isotope composition of the Rare Earth Element (REE) neodymium (Nd) is a powerful water mass proxy for present and past ocean circulation. The processes controlling the Nd budget of the global ocean are not quantitatively understood and in particular source and sink mechanisms are still under debate. In this study we present the first full water column data set of dissolved Nd isotope compositions and Nd concentrations for the Eastern Equatorial Pacific (EEP), where one of the globally largest Oxygen Minimum Zones (OMZ) is located. This region is of particular interest for understanding the biogeochemical cycling of REEs because anoxic conditions may lead to release of REEs from the shelf, whereas high particle densities and fluxes potentially remove the REEs from the water column. Data were obtained between 11400N and 161S along a nearshore and an offshore transect. Near surface zonal current bands, such as the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) and the Subsurface Countercurrent (SSCC), which are supplying oxygen-rich water to the OMZ are characterized by radiogenic Nd isotope signatures (eNd=-2). Surface waters in the northernmost part of the study area are even more radiogenic (eNd = +3), most likely due to release of Nd from volcanogenic material. Deep and bottom waters at the southernmost offshore station (141S) are clearly controlled by advection of water masses with less radiogenic signatures (eNd=- 7) originating from the Southern Ocean. Towards the equator, however, the deep waters show a clear trend towards more radiogenic values of up to eNd=-2. The northernmost station located in the Panama basin shows highly radiogenic Nd isotope signatures in the entire water column, which indicates that particle scavenging, downward transport and release processes play an important role. This is supported by relatively low Nd concentrations in deep waters (3000-6000 m) in the EEP (20 pmol/kg) compared to locations in the Northern and Central Pacific (40-60 pmol/kg), which suggests enhanced removal of Nd in the EEP.

Dinâmica das configurações de formação e inibição das chuvas no Rio Grande do Norte: caracterização hidroclimática do estado

This study aimed to evaluate the influence of the main meteorological mechanisms trainers and inhibitors of precipitation, and the interactions between different scales of operation, the spatial and temporal variability of the annual cycle of precipitation in the Rio Grande do Norte. Além disso, considerando as circunstâncias locais e regionais, criando assim uma base científica para apoiar ações futuras na gestão da demanda de água no Estado. Database from monthly precipitation of 45 years, ranging between 1963 and 2007, data provided by EMPARN. The methodology used to achieve the results was initially composed of descriptive statistical analysis of historical data to prove the stability of the series, were applied after, geostatistics tool for plotting maps of the variables, within the geostatistical we opted for by Kriging interpolation method because it was the method that showed the best results and minor errors. Among the results, we highlight the annual cycle of rainfall the State which is influenced by meteorological mechanisms of different spatial and temporal scales, where the main mechanisms cycle modulators are the Conference Intertropical Zone (ITCZ) acting since midFebruary to mid May throughout the state, waves Leste (OL), Lines of instability (LI), breeze systems and orographic rainfall acting mainly in the Coastal strip between February and July. Along with vortice of high levels (VCANs), Complex Mesoscale Convective (CCMs) and orographic rain in any region of the state mainly in spring and summer. In terms of larger scale phenomena stood out El Niño and La Niña, ENSO in the tropical Pacific basin. In La Niña episodes usually occur normal or rainy years, as upon the occurrence of prolonged periods of drought are influenced by EL NIÑO. In the Atlantic Ocean the standard Dipole also affects the intensity of the rainfall cycle in State. The cycle of rains in Rio Grande do Norte is divided into two periods, one comprising the regions West, Central and the Western Portion of the Wasteland Potiguar mesoregions of west Chapada Borborema, causing rains from midFebruary to mid-May and a second period of cycle, between February-July, where rains occur in mesoregions East and of the Wasteland, located upwind of the Chapada Borborema, both interspersed with dry periods without occurrence of significant rainfall and transition periods of rainy - dry and dry-rainy where isolated rainfall occur. Approximately 82% of the rainfall stations of the state which corresponds to 83.4% of the total area of Rio Grande do Norte, do not record annual volumes above 900 mm. Because the water supply of the State be maintained by small reservoirs already are in an advanced state of eutrophication, when the rains occur, act to wash and replace the water in the reservoirs, improving the quality of these, reducing the eutrophication process. When rain they do not significantly occur or after long periods of shortages, the process of eutrophication and deterioration of water in dams increased significantly. Through knowledge of the behavior of the annual cycle of rainfall can have an intimate knowledge of how it may be the tendency of rainy or prone to shortages following period, mainly observing the trends of larger scale phenomena

Particle flux at mooring sites in the Pacific Ocean (Table 1)

In order to understand the vertical transport of particulate matter, suspended and settling particles were collected along a meridional transect between 46°N and 35°S and an equatorial longitudinal transect between 135°E and 175°E in the Pacific. The low COrganic/N atomic ratios (<8.2) of suspended particulate organic matter (OM) and good correlation between particulate organic carbon (OC) and chlorophyll-a confirmed that the suspended particulate OM in the surface water was mainly produced by phytoplankton. Only 0.1-3.2% of primary production was transported to 1.3 km water depth in the boreal central Pacific. All data on settling particles (excluding deep trap data) showed strongly positive correlation between total mass and OM fluxes with high correlation factor of 0.93. Biogenic opal-producing plankton, mainly diatoms were responsible for most of the vertical transport of particulate OM in association with higher COrganic/CCarbonate ratios in the subarctic and equatorial hemipelagic regions in the Pacific. This vertical transport of settling particles potentially works as a sink of CO2. In the transition zone during the May 1993, large difference between PCO2 (<300 µatm) in the surface water and pCO2 (340 µatm) in the atmosphere was actually due to enhanced particulate OM flux. Since the deep water of the Pacific is enriched in CO2 and nutrients, upwelled seawater may tend to release CO2 to the atmosphere. However, higher production of particulate matter could reduce the partial pressure of CO2 in the surface water. Also terrestrial nutrients' inputs in the western equatorial Pacific have potential for the reduction of CO2 in the surface water.

(Table, page 351-359) Chemical composition of manganese nodules and crusts from the Pacific and Indian Ocean

Chemical and mineralogical analyses of manganese nodules from a large number of widely spaced localities in the Pacific and Indian Oceans have shown that their mineralogy and chemical composition varies both areally and with depth of formation. This is considered to result from a number of factors, important among which are: (a) their proximity to continental or volcanic sources of elements; (b) the chemical environment of deposition, including the degree of oxygenation; and (c) local factors such as the upward migration of reduced manganese in sediments from certain areas. Sub-surface nodules appear to share the chemical characteristics of their surface counterparts, especially those from volcanic areas where sub-surface sources of elements are probably important.

Geochemistry of surface sediment cores (Table 4)

The mineralogy and geochemistry of a suite of nine manganese nodules from the South Atlantic have been determined. The Ce/La ratios of the nodules were investigated to see if they could be used as redox indicators to trace the oxygen content of the ambient water mass and the flow path of the Antarctic Bottom Water as has previously been successfully carried out in the Pacific Ocean. The Ce/La ratios of the nodules decrease in the sequence Lazarev Sea, Weddell Sea (10.4 and 9.7)>East Georgia Basin (6.5 and 7.1)>Argentine Basin (5.0), but then increase in the Brazil Basin (6.2) and Angola Basin (9.8 and 15.1). A further decrease was observed in the Cape Basin (7.6). An extremely high Ce/La ratio of 24.4 had already been determined for nodules sampled north of the Nares Abyssal Plain in the western North Atlantic. These data reflect the more complicated pattern of bottom water flow in the South Atlantic than in the South Pacific. The penetration of more oxygenated North Atlantic Deep Water into the South Atlantic accounts for the higher Ce/La ratios in the nodules from the Angola and Brazil basins. Based on this study, the flow path of the Antarctic Bottom Water could only be traced as far north as the Argentine Basin. The unique geochemistry of nodules from the central Angola Basin (high Mn/Fe and Ce/La ratios, high contents of Ni, Cu, Zn and Mo) appears to be a function of the nature of the overlying water mass and of the multiple diagenetic sources of metals to the nodules.

Description of manganese nodules and crust collected from the Hakurei Maru Cruise GH76-2, March-May, 1976, in Northwestern Pacific Ocean

The cores and dredges described in this report were taken on the GH76-2 Expedition in March-May, 1976 by the Geological Survey of Japan from the R/V Hakurei Maru. A total of 47 cores and dredges sites have been visited. The survey covered the whole of the Pacific side of the Tohoku Arc, the southern part of the Kurile Arc and the northern margin of the Izu-Ogasawara (Bonin) Arc. The surveyed area covered the continental shelves, slopes, trenches and Pacific basin along the trenches.

Global distributions of diazotrophs nitrogen fixation rates - Depth integrated values computed from a collection of source datasets - Contribution to the MAREDAT World Ocean Atlas of Plankton Functional Types

The MAREDAT atlas covers 11 types of plankton, ranging in size from bacteria to jellyfish. Together, these plankton groups determine the health and productivity of the global ocean and play a vital role in the global carbon cycle. Working within a uniform and consistent spatial and depth grid (map) of the global ocean, the researchers compiled thousands and tens of thousands of data points to identify regions of plankton abundance and scarcity as well as areas of data abundance and scarcity. At many of the grid points, the MAREDAT team accomplished the difficult conversion from abundance (numbers of organisms) to biomass (carbon mass of organisms). The MAREDAT atlas provides an unprecedented global data set for ecological and biochemical analysis and modeling as well as a clear mandate for compiling additional existing data and for focusing future data gathering efforts on key groups in key areas of the ocean. The present data set presents depth integrated values of diazotrophs nitrogen fixation rates, computed from a collection of source data sets.

Pelagic phosphorus accumulation in the Pacific Ocean

As a limiting nutrient to marine life, phosphorus (P) is an effective tracer of today's marine productivity. The distribution of P in marine sediments likewise tracks the history of marine productivity because of its relative insolubility in seawater. CaCO3, biogenic opal, terrigenous sediment, and total P have been measured in cores from nine Pacific sites (Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) 65, 66, 310, 77, 62, 572, 463, 586, and GPC-3) and one subantarctic (DSDP 266) site. These sites were specifically chosen to provide information on biota burial flux changes with time for sedimentary sinks that represent key oceanographic variables, i.e., rate of upwelling, water depth, and carbonate dissolution gradient. The accumulation rates of these components for the last 10 Ma were then calculated from determined core age versus depth plots, core bulk density, and porosity data. The accumulation of P weakly correlates with that of CaCO3, moderately with that of total sediment, and very strongly with carbonate-free accumulation. Two prominent peaks for all components occur at 2-3 Ma and 5-6 Ma, and record the chemical loading of dissolved CaCO3, SiO2, and P from glacially emergent continental shelves. These results indicate that continental shelf phosphorites form during interglacially high sea levels and correspond to low deep-sea P accumulation rates, whereas glacially lowered sea levels allow for shelf bypassing and greater deep-sea P accumulation rates.

Sea-surface reconstructions of the western Pacific Ocean during the last 5.3 million years

The late Neogene was a time of cryosphere development in the northern hemisphere. The present study was carried out to estimate the sea surface temperature (SST) change during this period based on the quantitative planktonic foraminiferal data of 8 DSDP sites in the western Pacific. Target factor analysis has been applied to the conventional transfer function approach to overcome the no-analog conditions caused by evolutionary faunal changes. By applying this technique through a combination of time-slice and time-series studies, the SST history of the last 5.3 Ma has been reconstructed for the low latitude western Pacific. Although the present data set is close to the statistical limits of factor analysis, the clear presence of sensible variations in individual SST time-series suggests the feasibility and reliability of this method in paleoceanographic studies. The estimated SST curves display the general trend of the temperature fluctuations and reveal three major cool periods in the late Neogene, i.e. the early Pliocene (4.7 3.5 Ma), the late Pliocene (3.1-2.7 Ma), and the latest Pliocene to early Pleistocene (2.2-1.0 Ma). Cool events are reflected in the increase of seasonality and meridional SST gradient in the subtropical area. The latest Pliocene to early Pleistocene cooling is most important in the late Neogene climatic evolution. It differs from the previous cool events in its irreversible, steplike change in SST, which established the glacial climate characteristic of the late Pleistocene. The winter and summer SST decreased by 3.3-5.4°C and 1.0 2.1C in the subtropics, by 0.9°C and 0.6C in the equatorial region, and showed little or no cooling in the tropics. Moreover, this cooling event occurred as a gradual SST decrease during 2.2 1.0 Ma at the warmer subtropical sites, while that at cooler subtropical site was an abrupt SST drop at 2.2 Ma. In contrast, equatorial and tropical western Pacific experienced only minor SST change in the entire late Neogene. In general, subtropics was much more sensitive to climatic forcing than tropics and the cooling events were most extensive in the cooler subtropics. The early Pliocene cool periods can be correlated to the Antarctic ice volume fluctuation, and the latest Pliocene early Pleistocene cooling reflects the climatic evolution during the cryosphere development of the northern hemisphere.

An overview of the Amazonian Aerosol Characterization Experiment 2008 (AMAZE-08)

The Amazon Basin provides an excellent environment for studying the sources, transformations, and properties of natural aerosol particles and the resulting links between biological processes and climate. With this framework in mind, the Amazonian Aerosol Characterization Experiment (AMAZE-08), carried out from 7 February to 14 March 2008 during the wet season in the central Amazon Basin, sought to understand the formation, transformations, and cloud-forming properties of fine-and coarse-mode biogenic aerosol particles, especially as related to their effects on cloud activation and regional climate. Special foci included (1) the production mechanisms of secondary organic components at a pristine continental site, including the factors regulating their temporal variability, and (2) predicting and understanding the cloud-forming properties of biogenic particles at such a site. In this overview paper, the field site and the instrumentation employed during the campaign are introduced. Observations and findings are reported, including the large-scale context for the campaign, especially as provided by satellite observations. New findings presented include: (i) a particle number-diameter distribution from 10 nm to 10 mu m that is representative of the pristine tropical rain forest and recommended for model use; (ii) the absence of substantial quantities of primary biological particles in the submicron mode as evidenced by mass spectral characterization; (iii) the large-scale production of secondary organic material; (iv) insights into the chemical and physical properties of the particles as revealed by thermodenuder-induced changes in the particle number-diameter distributions and mass spectra; and (v) comparisons of ground-based predictions and satellite-based observations of hydrometeor phase in clouds. A main finding of AMAZE-08 is the dominance of secondary organic material as particle components. The results presented here provide mechanistic insight and quantitative parameters that can serve to increase the accuracy of models of the formation, transformations, and cloud-forming properties of biogenic natural aerosol particles, especially as related to their effects on cloud activation and regional climate.