983 resultados para Bayesian free-knot regression splines
Resumo:
Stream discharge-concentration relationships are indicators of terrestrial ecosystem function. Throughout the Amazon and Cerrado regions of Brazil rapid changes in land use and land cover may be altering these hydrochemical relationships. The current analysis focuses on factors controlling the discharge-calcium (Ca) concentration relationship since previous research in these regions has demonstrated both positive and negative slopes in linear log(10)discharge-log(10)Ca concentration regressions. The objective of the current study was to evaluate factors controlling stream discharge-Ca concentration relationships including year, season, stream order, vegetation cover, land use, and soil classification. It was hypothesized that land use and soil class are the most critical attributes controlling discharge-Ca concentration relationships. A multilevel, linear regression approach was utilized with data from 28 streams throughout Brazil. These streams come from three distinct regions and varied broadly in watershed size (< 1 to > 10(6) ha) and discharge (10(-5.7)-10(3.2) m(3) s(-1)). Linear regressions of log(10)Ca versus log(10)discharge in 13 streams have a preponderance of negative slopes with only two streams having significant positive slopes. An ANOVA decomposition suggests the effect of discharge on Ca concentration is large but variable. Vegetation cover, which incorporates aspects of land use, explains the largest proportion of the variance in the effect of discharge on Ca followed by season and year. In contrast, stream order, land use, and soil class explain most of the variation in stream Ca concentration. In the current data set, soil class, which is related to lithology, has an important effect on Ca concentration but land use, likely through its effect on runoff concentration and hydrology, has a greater effect on discharge-concentration relationships.
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A flow system designed with solenoid micro-pumps is proposed for fast and greener spectrophotometric determination of free glycerol in biodiesel. Glycerol was extracted from samples without using organic solvents. The determination involves glycerol oxidation by periodate, yielding formaldehyde followed by formation of the colored (3,5-diacetil-1,4-dihidrolutidine) product upon reaction with acetylacetone. The coefficient of variation, sampling rate and detection limit were estimated as 1.5% (20.0 mg L(-1) glycerol, n =10), 34 h(-1), and 1.0 mg L(-1) (99.7% confidence level), respectively. A linear response was observed from 5 to 50 mg L(-1), with reagent consumption estimated as 345 mu g of KIO(4) and 15 mg of acetylacetone per determination. The procedure was successfully applied to the analysis of biodiesel samples and the results agreed with the batch reference method at the 95% confidence level. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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A green and highly sensitive analytical procedure was developed for the determination of free chlorine in natural waters, based on the reaction with N,N-diethyl-p-phenylenediamine (DPD). The flow system was designed with solenoid micro-pumps in order to improve mixing conditions by pulsed flows and to minimize reagent consumption as well as waste generation. A 100-cm optical path flow cell based on a liquid core waveguide was employed to increase sensitivity. A linear response was observed within the range 10.0 to 100.0 mu g L(-1), with the detection limit, coefficient of variation and sampling rate estimated as 6.8 mu g (99.7% confidence level), 0.9% (n = 20) and 60 determinations per hour, respectively. The consumption of the most toxic reagent (DPD) was reduced 20,000-fold and 30-fold in comparison to the batch method and flow injection with continuous reagent addition, respectively. The results for natural and tap water samples agreed with those obtained by the reference batch spectrophotometric procedure at the 95% confidence level. (C) 2010 Elsevier By. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
A new procedure for spectrofluorimetric determination of free and total glycerol in biodiesel samples is presented. It is based on the oxidation of glycerol by periodate, forming formaldehyde, which reacts with acetylacetone, producing the luminescent 3,5-diacetyl-1,4-dihydrolutidine. A flow system with solenoid micro-pumps is proposed for solution handling. Free glycerol was extracted off-line from biodiesel samples with water, and total glycerol was converted to free glycerol by saponification with sodium ethylate under sonication. For free glycerol, a linear response was observed from 5 to 70 mg L(-1) with a detection limit of 0.5 mg L(-1), which corresponds to 2 mg kg(-1) in biodiesel. The coefficient of variation was 0.9% (20 mg L(-1), n = 10). For total glycerol, samples were diluted on-line, and the linear response range was 25 to 300 mg L(-1). The detection limit was 1.4 mg L(-1) (2.8 mg kg(-1) in biodiesel) with a coefficient of variation of 1.4% (200 mg L(-1), n = 10). The sampling rate was ca. 35 samples h(-1) and the procedure was applied to determination of free and total glycerol in biodiesel samples from soybean, cottonseed, and castor beans.
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Given a prime power q, define c (q) as the minimum cardinality of a subset H of F 3 q which satisfies the following property: every vector in this space di ff ers in at most 1 coordinate from a multiple of a vector in H. In this work, we introduce two extremal problems in combinatorial number theory aiming to discuss a known connection between the corresponding coverings and sum-free sets. Also, we provide several bounds on these maps which yield new classes of coverings, improving the previous upper bound on c (q)
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Here, I investigate the use of Bayesian updating rules applied to modeling how social agents change their minds in the case of continuous opinion models. Given another agent statement about the continuous value of a variable, we will see that interesting dynamics emerge when an agent assigns a likelihood to that value that is a mixture of a Gaussian and a uniform distribution. This represents the idea that the other agent might have no idea about what is being talked about. The effect of updating only the first moments of the distribution will be studied, and we will see that this generates results similar to those of the bounded confidence models. On also updating the second moment, several different opinions always survive in the long run, as agents become more stubborn with time. However, depending on the probability of error and initial uncertainty, those opinions might be clustered around a central value.
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In this paper we report findings on the presence of circadian rhythms in six species of cave-dwelling fishes from Brazil. Locomotor activity of islolated individuals was automatically recorded for 10 consecutive days under constant darkness. The species tested show varied degrees of specialization to subterranean life and we found varying degrees of the circadian components of locomotor activity as measured by the periodogram algorhythm of Lomb-Scargle. Both the presence and robustness of the circadian components seem to vary according to the degree of specialization to subterranean life, the more specialized, the less circadian rhythmicity was detected.
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Background: Research on life expectancy has demonstrated the negative impact of disability on the health of older adults and its differential effects on women as evidenced by their higher disabled life expectancy (DLE). The goal of the present study was to investigate gender differences in total life expectancy (TLE), disability-free life expectancy (DFLE), and DLE; examine gender differences on personal care assistance among older adults in Sao Paulo, Brazil; and discuss the implications for public policies. Methods: The sample was drawn from two waves (2000, 2006) of the dataset of Salud, Bienestar, y Envejecimiento, a large longitudinal study conducted in Sao Paulo (n = 2,143). The study assessed disability using the activities of daily living (ADL). The interpolation of Markov Chain method was used to estimate gender differences in TLE, DLE, and DFLE. Findings: TLE at age 60 years was approximately 5 years longer for women than men. Women aged 60 years were expected to live 28% of their remaining lives twice the percentage for men with at least one ADL disability. These women also lived more years (M = 0.71, SE = 0.42) with three or more ADL disabilities than men (M = 0.82, SE = 0.16). In terms of personal care assistance, women received more years of assistance than men. Conclusion: Among older adults in Sao Paulo, women lived longer lives but experienced a higher and more severe disability burden than men. In addition, although women received more years of personal assistance than men, women experienced more unmet care assistance needs. Copyright (C) 2011 by the Jacobs Institute of Women`s Health. Published by Elsevier. Inc.
Resumo:
Background Studies have shown that there is no safe level of secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure and there is a close link between SHS and the risk of coronary heart disease and stroke. Carbon monoxide (CO) is one of the most important components present in SHS. Objective To evaluate the impact of the smoking ban law in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil, on the CO concentration in restaurants, bars, night clubs and similar venues and in their workers. Methods In the present study we measured CO concentration in 585 hospitality venues. CO concentration was measured in different environments (indoor, semi-open and open areas) from visited venues, as well as, in the exhaled air from approximately 627 workers of such venues. Measurements were performed twice, before and 12 weeks after the law implementation. In addition, the quality of the air in the city during the same period of our study was verified. Results The CO concentration pre-ban and pot-ban in hospitality venues was indoor area 4.57 (3.70) ppm vs 1.35 (1.66) ppm (p<0.0001); semi-open 3.79 (2.49) ppm vs 1.16 (1.14) ppm (p<0.0001); open area 3.31 (2.2) ppm vs 1.31 (1.39) ppm (p<0.0001); smoking employees 15.78 (9.76) ppm vs 11.50 (7.53) ppm (p<0.0001) and non-smoking employees 6.88 (5.32) ppm vs 3.50 (2.21) ppm (p<0.0001). The average CO concentration measured in the city was lower than 1 ppm during both pre-ban and post-ban periods. Conclusion Sao Paulos smoking-free legislation reduced significantly the CO concentration in hospitality venues and in their workers, whether they smoke or not.
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Performance of different immobilized lipases in palm oil biodiesel synthesis. Optimized conditions for palm oil and ethanol enzymatic biodiesel synthesis were determined with different immobilized lipases SiO(2)-PVA-immobilized lipase from Pseudomonas fluorescens and acrylic resin-immobilized lipase, Novozym (R) 435, from Candida antartica, in solvent-free medium. A full factorial design assessed the influence of temperature (42 - 58 degrees C) and ethanol: palm oil (6:1 - 18:1) molar ratio on the transesterification yield. Main effects were adjusted by multiple regression analysis to linear models and the maximum transesterification yield was obtained at 42 degrees C and 18:1 ethanol: palm oil molar ratio. Mathematical models featuring total yield for each immobilized lipase were suitable to describe the experimental results.
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High solids content film-forming poly[styrene-co-(n-butyl acrylate)] [poly(Sty-co-BuA)] latexes armored with Laponite clay platelets have been synthesized by soap-free emulsion copolymerization of styrene and n-butyl acrylate. The polymerizations were performed in batch in the presence of Laponite and a methyl ether acrylateterminated poly(ethylene glycol) macromonomer in order to promote polymer/clay association. The overall polymerization kinetics showed a pronounced effect of clay on nucleation and stabilization of the latex particles. Cryo-transmission electron microscopy observation confirmed the armored morphology and indicated that the majority of Laponite platelets were located at the particle surface. The resulting nanostructured films displayed enhanced mechanical properties.
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Motivation: Understanding the patterns of association between polymorphisms at different loci in a population ( linkage disequilibrium, LD) is of fundamental importance in various genetic studies. Many coefficients were proposed for measuring the degree of LD, but they provide only a static view of the current LD structure. Generative models (GMs) were proposed to go beyond these measures, giving not only a description of the actual LD structure but also a tool to help understanding the process that generated such structure. GMs based in coalescent theory have been the most appealing because they link LD to evolutionary factors. Nevertheless, the inference and parameter estimation of such models is still computationally challenging. Results: We present a more practical method to build GM that describe LD. The method is based on learning weighted Bayesian network structures from haplotype data, extracting equivalence structure classes and using them to model LD. The results obtained in public data from the HapMap database showed that the method is a promising tool for modeling LD. The associations represented by the learned models are correlated with the traditional measure of LD D`. The method was able to represent LD blocks found by standard tools. The granularity of the association blocks and the readability of the models can be controlled in the method. The results suggest that the causality information gained by our method can be useful to tell about the conservability of the genetic markers and to guide the selection of subset of representative markers.
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This paper describes the modeling of a weed infestation risk inference system that implements a collaborative inference scheme based on rules extracted from two Bayesian network classifiers. The first Bayesian classifier infers a categorical variable value for the weed-crop competitiveness using as input categorical variables for the total density of weeds and corresponding proportions of narrow and broad-leaved weeds. The inferred categorical variable values for the weed-crop competitiveness along with three other categorical variables extracted from estimated maps for the weed seed production and weed coverage are then used as input for a second Bayesian network classifier to infer categorical variables values for the risk of infestation. Weed biomass and yield loss data samples are used to learn the probability relationship among the nodes of the first and second Bayesian classifiers in a supervised fashion, respectively. For comparison purposes, two types of Bayesian network structures are considered, namely an expert-based Bayesian classifier and a naive Bayes classifier. The inference system focused on the knowledge interpretation by translating a Bayesian classifier into a set of classification rules. The results obtained for the risk inference in a corn-crop field are presented and discussed. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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This paper aims to formulate and investigate the application of various nonlinear H(infinity) control methods to a fiee-floating space manipulator subject to parametric uncertainties and external disturbances. From a tutorial perspective, a model-based approach and adaptive procedures based on linear parametrization, neural networks and fuzzy systems are covered by this work. A comparative study is conducted based on experimental implementations performed with an actual underactuated fixed-base planar manipulator which is, following the DEM concept, dynamically equivalent to a free-floating space manipulator. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
An accurate estimate of machining time is very important for predicting delivery time, manufacturing costs, and also to help production process planning. Most commercial CAM software systems estimate the machining time in milling operations simply by dividing the entire tool path length by the programmed feed rate. This time estimate differs drastically from the real process time because the feed rate is not always constant due to machine and computer numerical controlled (CNC) limitations. This study presents a practical mechanistic method for milling time estimation when machining free-form geometries. The method considers a variable called machine response time (MRT) which characterizes the real CNC machine`s capacity to move in high feed rates in free-form geometries. MRT is a global performance feature which can be obtained for any type of CNC machine configuration by carrying out a simple test. For validating the methodology, a workpiece was used to generate NC programs for five different types of CNC machines. A practical industrial case study was also carried out to validate the method. The results indicated that MRT, and consequently, the real machining time, depends on the CNC machine`s potential: furthermore, the greater MRT, the larger the difference between predicted milling time and real milling time. The proposed method achieved an error range from 0.3% to 12% of the real machining time, whereas the CAM estimation achieved from 211% to 1244% error. The MRT-based process is also suggested as an instrument for helping in machine tool benchmarking.