930 resultados para Bayesian Analuysis, Ross River Virus, Spatio-Temporal Modelling


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L’obiettivo di questo lavoro di tesi è di ottenere un’analisi climatica giornaliera ad alta risoluzione della precipitazione sul territorio del nord Italia realizzata con tecniche di controllo statistico, di analisi e di strumenti di descrizione dei risultati presentati nella recente letteratura. A tal fine, sono stati utilizzati i dati dell’Archivio ARCIS. In seguito alle fasi di controllo qualità, omogeneità e sincronicità i dati sono stati utilizzati per realizzare un’analisi giornaliera su grigliato regolare a 10 km di risoluzione utile alla rappresentazione della variabilità spazio-temporale della precipitazione sul Nord Italia per il periodo 1961-2005. I risultati di tale analisi mettono in evidenza dei valori medi di precipitazione annuale abbastanza intensi sulla parte centrale dell’arco Alpino, con massimi (oltre 2000 mm) sull’estremità orientale e sull’Appennino Ligure. Valori minimi (500 – 600 mm) sono osservati lungo le aree prospicienti il fiume Po, in Val d’Aosta ed in Alto Adige. La corrispondente analisi del trend temporale indica la presenza di lievi cali statisticamente significativi solo in aree limitate del territorio. In coerenza con questi risultati, la variazione nel tempo della precipitazione annuale mediata su tutto il territorio mette in evidenza un’intensa variabilità decennale, ma solo una lieve flessione lineare sull’intero periodo. Il numero annuo di giorni piovosi ed il 90° percentile della precipitazione giornaliera presentano invece trend lineari un po’ più pronunciati. In particolare, sul periodo considerato si nota un calo del numero di giorni piovosi su gran parte del territorio e solo su alcune aree del territorio un aumento dell’intensità del 90° percentile, sia a scala annuale che stagionale. Nell’ultima parte di questo lavoro è stato realizzato uno studio della relazione fra la forzante climatica e l’evoluzione della morfologia dell’Appennino Emiliano-Romagnolo. I risultati mostrano che a parità di quota, di pendenza e di litologia, la franosità è influenzata dalle precipitazioni.

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Background: Reconstructing the evolutionary history of a species is challenging. It often depends not only on the past biogeographic and climatic events but also the contemporary and ecological factors, such as current connectivity and habitat heterogeneity. In fact, these factors might interact with each other and shape the current species distribution. However, to what extent the current population genetic structure reflects the past and the contemporary factors is largely unknown. Here we investigated spatio-temporal genetic structures of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) populations, across their natural distribution in Africa. While its large biogeographic distribution can cause genetic differentiation at the paleo-biogeographic scales, its restricted dispersal capacity might induce a strong genetic structure at micro-geographic scales. Results: Using nine microsatellite loci and 350 samples from ten natural populations, we found the highest genetic differentiation among the three ichthyofaunal provinces and regions (Ethiopian, Nilotic and Sudano-Sahelian) (R(ST) = 0.38 - 0.69). This result suggests the predominant effect of paleo-geographic events at macro-geographic scale. In addition, intermediate divergences were found between rivers and lakes within the regions, presumably reflecting relatively recent interruptions of gene flow between hydrographic basins (R(ST) = 0.24 - 0.32). The lowest differentiations were observed among connected populations within a basin (R(ST) = 0.015 in the Volta basin). Comparison of temporal sample series revealed subtle changes in the gene pools in a few generations (F = 0 - 0.053). The estimated effective population sizes were 23 - 143 and the estimated migration rate was moderate (m similar to 0.094 - 0.097) in the Volta populations. Conclusions: This study revealed clear hierarchical patterns of the population genetic structuring of O. niloticus in Africa. The effects of paleo-geographic and climatic events were predominant at macro-geographic scale, and the significant effect of geographic connectivity was detected at micro-geographic scale. The estimated effective population size, the moderate level of dispersal and the rapid temporal change in genetic composition might reflect a potential effect of life history strategy on population dynamics. This hypothesis deserves further investigation. The dynamic pattern revealed at micro-geographic and temporal scales appears important from a genetic resource management as well as from a biodiversity conservation point of view.

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Soils are fundamental to ensuring water, energy and food security. Within the context of sus- tainable food production, it is important to share knowledge on existing and emerging tech- nologies that support land and soil monitoring. Technologies, such as remote sensing, mobile soil testing, and digital soil mapping, have the potential to identify degraded and non- /little-responsive soils, and may also provide a basis for programmes targeting the protection and rehabilitation of soils. In the absence of such information, crop production assessments are often not based on the spatio-temporal variability in soil characteristics. In addition, uncertain- ties in soil information systems are notable and build up when predictions are used for monitor- ing soil properties or biophysical modelling. Consequently, interpretations of model-based results have to be done cautiously. As such they provide a scientific, but not always manage- able, basis for farmers and/or policymakers. In general, the key incentives for stakeholders to aim for sustainable management of soils and more resilient food systems are complex at farm as well as higher levels. The same is true of drivers of soil degradation. The decision- making process aimed at sustainable soil management, be that at farm or higher level, also in- volves other goals and objectives valued by stakeholders, e.g. land governance, improved envi- ronmental quality, climate change adaptation and mitigation etc. In this dialogue session we will share ideas on recent developments in the discourse on soils, their functions and the role of soil and land information in enhancing food system resilience.

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El oasis bajo riego del río Mendoza, en la provincia argentina del mismo nombre -al igual que casi todas las ciudades en la actualidadpresenta problemas de avance de la urbanización sobre las tierras agrícolas, multiplicidad de usuarios y disminución de la disponibilidad del recurso hídrico, tanto en cantidad como en calidad. Si bien se destinan esfuerzos e inversiones tendientes a asegurar la disponibilidad de agua (mejora de eficiencias, ahorro de agua) no pasa lo mismo en relación con la preservación de su calidad. La agricultura mendocina resulta víctima de la contaminación producida por la urbanización y la industria a través del vuelco (puntual y/o difuso) de sus efluentes a la red de riego. Estudios realizados en el Oasis Norte de Mendoza pusieron de manifiesto la existencia de altos niveles de contaminación fosfatada en las aguas del río Mendoza. El presente trabajo tuvo como objetivo evaluar la evolución espacio-temporal y detectar las fuentes de esta contaminación. Los resultados del diagnóstico basado en una serie de muestreos realizados en 2003 - 2009 ponen de relieve la existencia de una moderada contaminación por fosfatos en las aguas del río Mendoza que riegan el Oasis Norte provincial. Asimismo, se detectaron niveles considerablemente altos de fosfatos en tres sitios específicos del oasis: 1. la superficie regadía servida por los canales Cacique Guaymallén y Jocolí -se observa un incremento de seis veces el contenido de fosfatos del agua: de 0,2 mg L-1 (R I) a 1,2 mg L-1 (C II)-; en este último sitio sólo se riega un pequeño sector que se aproxima a las 7.300 ha; 2. la superficie regada por el Colector Pescara aguas abajo del punto D VIII (1.250 ha), en la que los valores medios arrojaron un contenido diecisiete veces mayor (8,5 mg L-1 ) que los del sitio D I (0,49 mg L-1 ) que recibe desagües agrícolas y urbano pluviales; 3. la zona del Bajo río Mendoza (en esta zona se registró un aumento de dieciséis veces más fosfatos entre la parte media y la cola del sistema, con valores medios de 0,2 mg L-1 en el sitio R II y de 3,25 mg L-1 en R III).

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UV-absorbing covers reduce the incidence of injurious insect pests and viruses in protected crops. In the present study, the effect of a UV-absorbing net (Bionet) on the spatio-temporal dynamics of the potato aphid on lettuce plants was evaluated. A field experiment was conducted during three seasons in two identical tunnels divided in four plots. A set of lettuce plants were artificially infested with Macrosiphum euphorbiae adults and the population was estimated by counting aphids on every plant over 7 to 9 weeks. Insect population grew exponentially but a significantly lower aphid density was present on plants grown under the UV-absorbing cover compared to a standard 50 mesh net. Similarly, in laboratory conditions, life table parameters were significantly reduced under the Bionet. Moreover, SADIE analysis showed that the spatial distribution of aphids was effectively limited under the UV-absorbing nets. Our results indicate that UV-absorbing nets should be considered as an important component of lettuce indoor cropping systems preventing pesticide applications and reducing the risk of spread of aphid-borne virus diseases.

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The overall objective of this research project is to enrich geographic data with temporal and semantic components in order to significantly improve spatio-temporal analysis of geographic phenomena. To achieve this goal, we intend to establish and incorporate three new layers (structures) into the core of the Geographic Information by using mark-up languages as well as defining a set of methods and tools for enriching the system to make it able to retrieve and exploit such layers (semantic-temporal, geosemantic, and incremental spatio-temporal). Besides these layers, we also propose a set of models (temporal and spatial) and two semantic engines that make the most of the enriched geographic data. The roots of the project and its definition have been previously presented in Siabato & Manso-Callejo 2011. In this new position paper, we extend such work by delineating clearly the methodology and the foundations on which we will base to define the main components of this research: the spatial model, the temporal model, the semantic layers, and the semantic engines. By putting together the former paper and this new work we try to present a comprehensive description of the whole process, from pinpointing the basic problem to describing and assessing the solution. In this new article we just mention the methods and the background to describe how we intend to define the components and integrate them into the GI.

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Leaf nitrogen and leaf surface area influence the exchange of gases between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere, and play a significant role in the global cycles of carbon, nitrogen and water. The purpose of this study is to use field-based and satellite remote-sensing-based methods to assess leaf nitrogen pools in five diverse European agricultural landscapes located in Denmark, Scotland (United Kingdom), Poland, the Netherlands and Italy. REGFLEC (REGularized canopy reFLECtance) is an advanced image-based inverse canopy radiative transfer modelling system which has shown proficiency for regional mapping of leaf area index (LAI) and leaf chlorophyll (CHLl) using remote sensing data. In this study, high spatial resolution (10–20 m) remote sensing images acquired from the multispectral sensors aboard the SPOT (Satellite For Observation of Earth) satellites were used to assess the capability of REGFLEC for mapping spatial variations in LAI, CHLland the relation to leaf nitrogen (Nl) data in five diverse European agricultural landscapes. REGFLEC is based on physical laws and includes an automatic model parameterization scheme which makes the tool independent of field data for model calibration. In this study, REGFLEC performance was evaluated using LAI measurements and non-destructive measurements (using a SPAD meter) of leaf-scale CHLl and Nl concentrations in 93 fields representing crop- and grasslands of the five landscapes. Furthermore, empirical relationships between field measurements (LAI, CHLl and Nl and five spectral vegetation indices (the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, the Simple Ratio, the Enhanced Vegetation Index-2, the Green Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, and the green chlorophyll index) were used to assess field data coherence and to serve as a comparison basis for assessing REGFLEC model performance. The field measurements showed strong vertical CHLl gradient profiles in 26% of fields which affected REGFLEC performance as well as the relationships between spectral vegetation indices (SVIs) and field measurements. When the range of surface types increased, the REGFLEC results were in better agreement with field data than the empirical SVI regression models. Selecting only homogeneous canopies with uniform CHLl distributions as reference data for evaluation, REGFLEC was able to explain 69% of LAI observations (rmse = 0.76), 46% of measured canopy chlorophyll contents (rmse = 719 mg m−2) and 51% of measured canopy nitrogen contents (rmse = 2.7 g m−2). Better results were obtained for individual landscapes, except for Italy, where REGFLEC performed poorly due to a lack of dense vegetation canopies at the time of satellite recording. Presence of vegetation is needed to parameterize the REGFLEC model. Combining REGFLEC- and SVI-based model results to minimize errors for a "snap-shot" assessment of total leaf nitrogen pools in the five landscapes, results varied from 0.6 to 4.0 t km−2. Differences in leaf nitrogen pools between landscapes are attributed to seasonal variations, extents of agricultural area, species variations, and spatial variations in nutrient availability. In order to facilitate a substantial assessment of variations in Nl pools and their relation to landscape based nitrogen and carbon cycling processes, time series of satellite data are needed. The upcoming Sentinel-2 satellite mission will provide new multiple narrowband data opportunities at high spatio-temporal resolution which are expected to further improve remote sensing capabilities for mapping LAI, CHLl and Nl.

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Existing descriptions of bi-directional ammonia (NH3) land–atmosphere exchange incorporate temperature and moisture controls, and are beginning to be used in regional chemical transport models. However, such models have typically applied simpler emission factors to upscale the main NH3 emission terms. While this approach has successfully simulated the main spatial patterns on local to global scales, it fails to address the environment- and climate-dependence of emissions. To handle these issues, we outline the basis for a new modelling paradigm where both NH3 emissions and deposition are calculated online according to diurnal, seasonal and spatial differences in meteorology. We show how measurements reveal a strong, but complex pattern of climatic dependence, which is increasingly being characterized using ground-based NH3 monitoring and satellite observations, while advances in process-based modelling are illustrated for agricultural and natural sources, including a global application for seabird colonies. A future architecture for NH3 emission–deposition modelling is proposed that integrates the spatio-temporal interactions, and provides the necessary foundation to assess the consequences of climate change. Based on available measurements, a first empirical estimate suggests that 5°C warming would increase emissions by 42 per cent (28–67%). Together with increased anthropogenic activity, global NH3 emissions may increase from 65 (45–85) Tg N in 2008 to reach 132 (89–179) Tg by 2100.

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The Caribbean and Central America are among the regions with highest HIV-1B prevalence worldwide. Despite of this high virus burden, little is known about the timing and the migration patterns of HIV-1B in these regions. Migration is one of the major processes shaping the genetic structure of virus populations. Thus, reconstruction of epidemiological network may contribute to understand HIV-1B evolution and reduce virus prevalence. We have investigated the spatio-temporal dynamics of the HIV-1B epidemic in The Caribbean and Central America using 1,610 HIV-1B partial pol sequences from 13 Caribbean and 5 Central American countries. Timing of HIV-1B introduction and virus evolutionary rates, as well as the spatial genetic structure of the HIV-1B populations and the virus migration patterns were inferred. Results revealed that in The Caribbean and Central America most of the HIV-1B variability was generated since the 80 s. At odds with previous data suggesting that Haiti was the origin of the epidemic in The Caribbean, our reconstruction indicated that the virus could have been disseminated from Puerto Rico and Antigua. These two countries connected two distinguishable migration areas corresponding to the (mainly Spanish-colonized) Easter and (mainly British-colonized) Western islands, which indicates that virus migration patterns are determined by geographical barriers and by the movement of human populations among culturally related countries. Similar factors shaped the migration of HIV-1B in Central America. The HIV-1B population was significantly structured according to the country of origin, and the genetic diversity in each country was associated with the virus prevalence in both regions, which suggests that virus populations evolve mainly through genetic drift. Thus, our work contributes to the understanding of HIV-1B evolution and dispersion pattern in the Americas, and its relationship with the geography of the area and the movements of human populations.

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El enriquecimiento del conocimiento sobre la Irradiancia Solar (IS) a nivel de superficie terrestre, así como su predicción, cobran gran interés para las Energías Renovables (ER) - Energía Solar (ES)-, y para distintas aplicaciones industriales o ecológicas. En el ámbito de las ER, el uso óptimo de la ES implica contar con datos de la IS en superficie que ayuden tanto, en la selección de emplazamientos para instalaciones de ES, como en su etapa de diseño (dimensionar la producción) y, finalmente, en su explotación. En este último caso, la observación y la predicción es útil para el mercado energético, la planificación y gestión de la energía (generadoras y operadoras del sistema eléctrico), especialmente en los nuevos contextos de las redes inteligentes de transporte. A pesar de la importancia estratégica de contar con datos de la IS, especialmente los observados por sensores de IS en superficie (los que mejor captan esta variable), estos no siempre están disponibles para los lugares de interés ni con la resolución espacial y temporal deseada. Esta limitación se une a la necesidad de disponer de predicciones a corto plazo de la IS que ayuden a la planificación y gestión de la energía. Se ha indagado y caracterizado las Redes de Estaciones Meteorológicas (REM) existentes en España que publican en internet sus observaciones, focalizando en la IS. Se han identificado 24 REM (16 gubernamentales y 8 redes voluntarios) que aglutinan 3492 estaciones, convirtiéndose éstas en las fuentes de datos meteorológicos utilizados en la tesis. Se han investigado cinco técnicas de estimación espacial de la IS en intervalos de 15 minutos para el territorio peninsular (3 técnicas geoestadísticas, una determinística y el método HelioSat2 basado en imágenes satelitales) con distintas configuraciones espaciales. Cuando el área de estudio tiene una adecuada densidad de observaciones, el mejor método identificado para estimar la IS es el Kriging con Regresión usando variables auxiliares -una de ellas la IS estimada a partir de imágenes satelitales-. De este modo es posible estimar espacialmente la IS más allá de los 25 km identificados en la bibliografía. En caso contrario, se corrobora la idoneidad de utilizar estimaciones a partir de sensores remotos cuando la densidad de observaciones no es adecuada. Se ha experimentado con el modelado de Redes Neuronales Artificiales (RNA) para la predicción a corto plazo de la IS utilizando observaciones próximas (componentes espaciales) en sus entradas y, los resultados son prometedores. Así los niveles de errores disminuyen bajo las siguientes condiciones: (1) cuando el horizonte temporal de predicción es inferior o igual a 3 horas, las estaciones vecinas que se incluyen en el modelo deben encentrarse a una distancia máxima aproximada de 55 km. Esto permite concluir que las RNA son capaces de aprender cómo afectan las condiciones meteorológicas vecinas a la predicción de la IS. ABSTRACT ABSTRACT The enrichment of knowledge about the Solar Irradiance (SI) at Earth's surface and its prediction, have a high interest for Renewable Energy (RE) - Solar Energy (SE) - and for various industrial and environmental applications. In the field of the RE, the optimal use of the SE involves having SI surface to help in the selection of sites for facilities ES, in the design stage (sizing energy production), and finally on their production. In the latter case, the observation and prediction is useful for the market, planning and management of the energy (generators and electrical system operators), especially in new contexts of smart transport networks (smartgrid). Despite the strategic importance of SI data, especially those observed by sensors of SI at surface (the ones that best measure this environmental variable), these are not always available to the sights and the spatial and temporal resolution desired. This limitation is bound to the need for short-term predictions of the SI to help planning and energy management. It has been investigated and characterized existing Networks of Weather Stations (NWS) in Spain that share its observations online, focusing on SI. 24 NWS have been identified (16 government and 8 volunteer networks) that implies 3492 stations, turning it into the sources of meteorological data used in the thesis. We have investigated five technical of spatial estimation of SI in 15 minutes to the mainland (3 geostatistical techniques and HelioSat2 a deterministic method based on satellite images) with different spatial configurations. When the study area has an adequate density of observations we identified the best method to estimate the SI is the regression kriging with auxiliary variables (one of them is the SI estimated from satellite images. Thus it is possible to spatially estimate the SI beyond the 25 km identified in the literature. Otherwise, when the density of observations is inadequate the appropriateness is using the estimates values from remote sensing. It has been experimented with Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) modeling for predicting the short-term future of the SI using observations from neighbor’s weather stations (spatial components) in their inputs, and the results are promising. The error levels decrease under the following conditions: (1) when the prediction horizon is less or equal than 3 hours the best models are the ones that include data from the neighboring stations (at a maximum distance of 55 km). It is concluded that the ANN is able to learn how weather conditions affect neighboring prediction of IS at such Spatio-temporal horizons.

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THE MAP AS A COLLABORATIVE MEDIUM FOR SPATIO-TEMPORAL VISUALIZATION This dissertation focuses on the relationship between maps and spatio-temporal data visualization. It is divided into two components: theoretical framework and practical approach. The study begins by questioning the role of the map in today’s digital society and particularly its role in visualization, and finishes with the conceptualization and development of an interactive dot map that visualizes data from Instagram and Twitter. Nowadays, geographic information is no longer produced just by experts, but also by ordinary people that are able to participate in data creation and exchange. The Web 2.0 lies in the heart of this change, where social media represent a significant tool for producing geotagged content, allowing its users to share their location and to spatially reference their publications. Furthermore, amateur mapmaking and neogeography have benefited from the emergence of several new devices that enable the creation of digital maps that are interactive, adaptable and easily shared on the Web. This study adopts a descriptive approach calling upon the diverse aspects of the map and its evolution as a medium for visualizing geotagged data, highlighting collaborative mapping as an emerging subject area that is of mandatory future research. Relevant projects are also analyzed in order to identify trends and different approaches for visualizing social media data in its spatial context, intended to support the project’s conceptualization, development and evaluation. The created map demonstrates how spatial knowledge and perception of place are now redefined by the contributions of individuals; it also shows how that activity produces new sources of geographic information, forcing the development of new techniques and approaches that allow an adequate exploration of content and visualization methods of the contemporary map

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Over the past 6 years, a number of zoonotic and vectorborne viral diseases have emerged in Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific. Vectorborne disease agents discussed in this article include Japanese encephalitis, Barmah Forest, Ross River, and Chikungunya viruses. However, most emerging viruses have been zoonotic, with fruit bats, including flying fox species as the probable wildlife hosts, and these will be discussed as well. The first of these disease agents to emerge was Hendra virus, formerly called equine morbillivirus. This was followed by outbreaks caused by a rabies-related virus, Australian bat lyssavirus, and a virus associated with porcine stillbirths and malformations, Menangle virus. Nipah virus caused an outbreak of fatal pneumonia in pigs and encephalitis in humans in the Malay Peninsula. Most recently, Tioman virus has been isolated from flying foxes, but it has not yet been associated with animal or human disease. Of nonzoonotic viruses, the most important regionally have been enterovirus 71 and HIV.

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A practical Bayesian approach for inference in neural network models has been available for ten years, and yet it is not used frequently in medical applications. In this chapter we show how both regularisation and feature selection can bring significant benefits in diagnostic tasks through two case studies: heart arrhythmia classification based on ECG data and the prognosis of lupus. In the first of these, the number of variables was reduced by two thirds without significantly affecting performance, while in the second, only the Bayesian models had an acceptable accuracy. In both tasks, neural networks outperformed other pattern recognition approaches.

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How does the brain combine spatio-temporal signals from the two eyes? We quantified binocular summation as the improvement in 2AFC contrast sensitivity for flickering gratings seen by two eyes compared with one. Binocular gratings in-phase showed sensitivity up to 1.8 times higher, suggesting nearly linear summation of contrasts. The binocular advantage decreased to 1.4 at lower spatial and higher temporal frequencies (0.25 cycle deg-1, 30 Hz). Dichoptic, antiphase gratings showed only a small binocular advantage, by a factor of 1.1 to 1.2, but no evidence of cancellation. We present a signal-processing model to account for the contrast-sensitivity functions and the pattern of binocular summation. It has linear sustained and transient temporal filters, nonlinear transduction, and half-wave rectification that creates ON and OFF channels. Binocular summation occurs separately within ON and OFF channels, thus explaining the phase-specific binocular advantage. The model also accounts for earlier findings on detection of brief antiphase flashes and the surprising finding that dichoptic antiphase flicker is seen as frequency-doubled (Cavonius et al, 1992 Ophthalmic and Physiological Optics 12 153 - 156). [Supported by EPSRC project GR/S74515/01].

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A well-known property of orientation-tuned neurons in the visual cortex is that they are suppressed by the superposition of an orthogonal mask. This phenomenon has been explained in terms of physiological constraints (synaptic depression), engineering solutions for components with poor dynamic range (contrast normalization) and fundamental coding strategies for natural images (redundancy reduction). A common but often tacit assumption is that the suppressive process is equally potent at different spatial and temporal scales of analysis. To determine whether it is so, we measured psychophysical cross-orientation masking (XOM) functions for flickering horizontal Gabor stimuli over wide ranges of spatio-temporal frequency and contrast. We found that orthogonal masks raised contrast detection thresholds substantially at low spatial frequencies and high temporal frequencies (high speeds), and that small and unexpected levels of facilitation were evident elsewhere. The data were well fit by a functional model of contrast gain control, where (i) the weight of suppression increased with the ratio of temporal to spatial frequency and (ii) the weight of facilitatory modulation was the same for all conditions, but outcompeted by suppression at higher contrasts. These results (i) provide new constraints for models of primary visual cortex, (ii) associate XOM and facilitation with the transient magno- and sustained parvostreams, respectively, and (iii) reconcile earlier conflicting psychophysical reports on XOM.