The Three Horsemen of Growth: Plague, War and Urbanization in Early Modern Europe

How did Europe overtake China? We construct a simple Malthusian model with two sectors, and use it to explain how European per capita incomes and urbanization rates could surge ahead of Chinese ones. That living standards could exceed subsistence levels at all in a Malthusian setting should be surprising. Rising fertility and falling mortality ought to have reversed any gains. We show that productivity growth in Europe can only explain a small fraction of rising living standards. Population dynamics - changes of the birth and death schedules - were far more important drivers of the longrun Malthusian equilibrium. The Black Death raised wages substantially, creating important knock-on effects. Because of Engel's Law, demand for urban products increased, raising urban wages and attracting migrants from rural areas. European cities were unhealthy, especially compared to Far Eastern ones. Urbanization pushed up aggregate death rates. This effect was reinforced by more frequent wars (fed by city wealth) and disease spread by trade. Thus, higher wages themselves reduced population pressure. Without technological change, our model can account for the sharp rise in European urbanization as well as permanently higher per capita incomes. We complement our calibration exercise with a detailed analysis of intra-European growth in the early modern period. Using a panel of European states in the period 1300-1700, we show that war frequency can explain a good share of the divergent fortunes within Europe.

Urban mobilities: the anglo-catalan production of the Barcelona model

The aim of the project was to gauge the extent to which the so-called ‘Barcelona Model’ of urban transformation has been ‘exported’ to Britain and whether Barcelona has learned from British cities. We engage with the literature on successive British governments’ strategies for cities, focused on collecting data on contemporary policy initiatives and debates in the UK, did interviews in Manchester, London Barcelona and participated in the official visit of Leeds to Barcelona in March. Our research findings to date suggest that there is a good deal of mobility and interaction between Barcelona and the UK. However, it is by no means certain that this has resulted in definite instances of policy transfer. While the ‘Barcelona model’ has indeed featured in oficial discourse on urban regeneration in the UK, it does not appear to be the preferred best practice ‘model’ – other North American and European cities figure discursively as much, if not more. Where Barcelona does feature in official discourse, it is usually as an example of good design and an appealing urban aesthetic, rather than in terms of economic or social policy best practice. Our research suggests that the Barcelona model is seen as non-transferable to the UK due to the relatively more centralised governance structure therein.In contrast, evidence collected suggests that the Barcelona model is not influenced by UK British cities experiences but there is small evidence of being influenced by UK-based professionals.

Lettres de la marquise Du Deffand à Horace Walpole, écrites dans les années 1766 à 1780 : auxquelles sont jointes des lettres de Mme Du Deffand à Voltaire, écrites dans les années 1759 à 1775, publiées d'après les originaux déposés à Strawberry-Hill. Tome 1

Collection : Bibliothèque des mémoires pendant le XVIIIe siècle

Lettres de la marquise Du Deffand à Horace Walpole, écrites dans les années 1766 à 1780 : auxquelles sont jointes des lettres de Mme Du Deffand à Voltaire, écrites dans les années 1759 à 1775, publiées d'après les originaux déposés à Strawberry-Hill. Tome 2

Collection : Bibliothèque des mémoires pendant le XVIIIe siècle

International commodity prices, growth and the outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa

To learn more about the effect of economic conditions oncivil war, we examine whether Sub-Saharan civil wars aremore likely to start following downturns in the internationalprice of countries main export commodities. The data showa robust effect of commodity price downturns on the outbreakof civil wars. We also find that Sub-Saharan countries aremore likely to see civil wars following economic downturnsin their main OECD export destinations.

The aftermath of Civil War

Using an event-study methodology, this paper analyzes the aftermath of civil war in a cross-section of countries. It focuses on those experiences where the end of conflict marks the beginning of a relatively lasting peace. The paper considers 41 countries involved in internal wars in the period 1960-2003. In order to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the aftermath of war, the paper considers a host of social areas represented by basic indicators of economic performance, health and education, political development, demographic trends, and conflict and security issues. For each of these indicators, the paper first compares the post- and pre-war situations and then examines their dynamic trends during the post-conflict period. It conducts this analysis both in absolute and relative terms, the latter in relation to control groups of otherwise similar countries. The paper concludes that, even though war has devastating effects and its aftermath can be immensely difficult, when the end of war marks the beginning of lasting peace, recovery and improvement are indeed achieved.

O Cabo - verdiano através dos olhos de forasteiros: representações nos textos portugueses (1784-1844)

Ao ler os textos portugueses dos finais do século XVIII e a primeira metade do século XIX deparase com uma certa depreciação e africanização do homem cabo-verdiano. As formas de sociabilidade dos cabo-verdianos eram reprovadas por estes serem demasiados próximo dos “negros africanos”. Estas representações continuam a ser menos conhecidas tanto no domínio da História como nos outros campos do saber. Ora, o presente trabalho debruça-se sobre a imagem do homem caboverdiano construída, pensada, e dada a ler nos textos portugueses produzidos pelos forasteiros no período entre 1784 e 1844. O corpo textual que sustenta este estudo foi produzido a partir do contacto com as ilhas e os seus habitantes ou, muitas vezes, a partir de informações de terceiros, por alguém cujos padrões mentais e culturais pertenciam à outra realidade. Da longa relação dos portugueses/europeus com os africanos sob a soberania portuguesa no espaço cabo-verdiano desenvolveu-se uma cultura nova e um homem novo – uma nova sociedade, que por um lado reflecte o fracasso português na assimilação dos cabo-verdianos e por outro mostra a capacidade de, num espaço novo, através do processo de mestiçagem, que foi quase um fenómeno natural nas ilhas de Cabo Verde, surgir algo novo, com contornos próprios, que se pode caracterizar de caboverdiano.

O Cabo-verdiano através dos olhos de forasteiros: representações nos textos portugueses, 1784-1844

Ao ler os textos portugueses dos finais do século XVIII e a primeira metade do século XIX deparase com uma certa depreciação e africanização do homem cabo-verdiano. As formas de sociabilidade dos cabo-verdianos eram reprovadas por estes serem demasiados próximo dos “negros africanos”. Estas representações continuam a ser menos conhecidas tanto no domínio da História como nos outros campos do saber. Ora, o presente trabalho debruça-se sobre a imagem do homem caboverdiano construída, pensada, e dada a ler nos textos portugueses produzidos pelos forasteiros no período entre 1784 e 1844. O corpo textual que sustenta este estudo foi produzido a partir do contacto com as ilhas e os seus habitantes ou, muitas vezes, a partir de informações de terceiros, por alguém cujos padrões mentais e culturais pertenciam à outra realidade. Da longa relação dos portugueses/europeus com os africanos sob a soberania portuguesa no espaço cabo-verdiano desenvolveu-se uma cultura nova e um homem novo – uma nova sociedade, que por um lado reflecte o fracasso português na assimilação dos cabo-verdianos e por outro mostra a capacidade de, num espaço novo, através do processo de mestiçagem, que foi quase um fenómeno natural nas ilhas de Cabo Verde, surgir algo novo, com contornos próprios, que se pode caracterizar de caboverdiano

The colonial origins of Civil War

The dominant hypothesis in the literature that studies conflict is that poverty is the main cause of civil wars. We instead analyze the effect of institutions on civil war, controlling for income per capita. In our set up, institutions are endogenous and colonial origins affect civil wars through their legacy on institutions. Our results indicate that institutions, proxied by the protection of property rights, rule of law and the efficiency of the legal system, are a fundamental cause of civil war. In particular, an improvement in institutions from the median value in the sample to the 75th percentile is associated with a 38 percentage points reduction in the incidence of civil wars. Moreover, once institutions are included as explaining civil wars, income does not have any effect on civil war, either directly or indirectly.