Proposta de metodologia de auxílio à decisão utilizando conjuntos Fuzzy para repotenciação de PCHs

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Determinação de áreas prioritárias para o restabelecimento da cobertura florestal, apoiada no uso de geotecnologias

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Seleção de fornecedores em uma indústria de transformadores utilizando o método de análise hierárquica

The optimal supply chain management (SCM) is considered by the companies a new frontier in order to gain efficiently competitive advantage. Through the SCM companies must define their competitive strategies by positioning inside the supply chain wich belongs both as suppliers and as consumers. The main objectives of SCM is integrate multiple suppliers to satisfy the market demand and make possible the synergies between the parts of the supply chain in order to better serve the consumer Meanwhile, selection, evaluation and development of suppliers play important roles in establishing an efficient supply chain. Thus, the SCM covers elements such as manufacturing, assembly, raw materials, and distribution to the final consumer. Due to the factors described, the focus of this paper is to present the Analytic Hierarchical Process (AHP) application as an appropriate and structured method for the supplier selection of a strategic line of low voltage transformers of a transformers industry and compare it with the selection process currently used by this industry, showing the advantages of applying a multiple criteria decision making method. In this study, the research methodology used was modeling and simulation

Eco-Management and Audit Scheme (EMAS): An evaluation of success factors in the agricultural sector. The case of Italy's Emilia Romagna region.

Different tools have been used to set up and adopt the model for the fulfillment of the objective of this research. 1. The Model The base model that has been used is the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) adapted with the aim to perform a Benefit Cost Analysis. The AHP developed by Thomas Saaty is a multicriteria decision - making technique which decomposes a complex problem into a hierarchy. It is used to derive ratio scales from both discreet and continuous paired comparisons in multilevel hierarchic structures. These comparisons may be taken from actual measurements or from a fundamental scale that reflects the relative strength of preferences and feelings. 2. Tools and methods 2.1. The Expert Choice Software The software Expert Choice is a tool that allows each operator to easily implement the AHP model in every stage of the problem. 2.2. Personal Interviews to the farms For this research, the farms of the region Emilia Romagna certified EMAS have been detected. Information has been given by EMAS center in Wien. Personal interviews have been carried out to each farm in order to have a complete and realistic judgment of each criteria of the hierarchy. 2.3. Questionnaire A supporting questionnaire has also been delivered and used for the interviews . 3. Elaboration of the data After data collection, the data elaboration has taken place. The software support Expert Choice has been used . 4. Results of the Analysis The result of the figures above (vedere altro documento) gives a series of numbers which are fractions of the unit. This has to be interpreted as the relative contribution of each element to the fulfillment of the relative objective. So calculating the Benefits/costs ratio for each alternative the following will be obtained: Alternative One: Implement EMAS Benefits ratio: 0, 877 Costs ratio: 0, 815 Benfit/Cost ratio: 0,877/0,815=1,08 Alternative Two: Not Implement EMAS Benefits ratio: 0,123 Costs ration: 0,185 Benefit/Cost ratio: 0,123/0,185=0,66 As stated above, the alternative with the highest ratio will be the best solution for the organization. This means that the research carried out and the model implemented suggests that EMAS adoption in the agricultural sector is the best alternative. It has to be noted that the ratio is 1,08 which is a relatively low positive value. This shows the fragility of this conclusion and suggests a careful exam of the benefits and costs for each farm before adopting the scheme. On the other part, the result needs to be taken in consideration by the policy makers in order to enhance their intervention regarding the scheme adoption on the agricultural sector. According to the AHP elaboration of judgments we have the following main considerations on Benefits: - Legal compliance seems to be the most important benefit for the agricultural sector since its rank is 0,471 - The next two most important benefits are Improved internal organization (ranking 0,230) followed by Competitive advantage (ranking 0, 221) mostly due to the sub-element Improved image (ranking 0,743) Finally, even though Incentives are not ranked among the most important elements, the financial ones seem to have been decisive on the decision making process. According to the AHP elaboration of judgments we have the following main considerations on Costs: - External costs seem to be largely more important than the internal ones (ranking 0, 857 over 0,143) suggesting that Emas costs over consultancy and verification remain the biggest obstacle. - The implementation of the EMS is the most challenging element regarding the internal costs (ranking 0,750).

Enhancing multidirectional communication for cognitive cities

This paper presents the technical background and functionality of a meta-application (meta-app) for cognitive cities. This app enhances communication and thereby facilitates e-governance. This paper focuses on a user-centered implementation of the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) by presenting its technical specifications in relation with cognitive cities. For didactical reasons, a use case from the user perspective is included. Finally the findings are summed up and future work is presented

Supply chain performance measurement framework:case studies on the Thai manufacturers

One of the most significant paradigm shifts of modern business management is that individual businesses no longer compete as solely autonomous entities, but rather as supply chains. Firms worldwide have embraced the concept of supply chain management as important and sometimes critical to their business. The idea of a collaborative supply chain is to gain a competitive advantage by improving overall performance through measuring a holistic perspective of the supply chain. However, contemporary performance measurement theory is somewhat fragmented and fails to support this idea. Therefore, this research develops and applies an integrated supply chain performance measurement framework that provides a more holistic approach to the study of supply chain performance measurement by combining both supply chain macro processes and decision making levels. Therefore, the proposed framework can provide a balanced horizontal (cross-process) and vertical (hierarchical decision) view and measure the performance of the entire supply chain system. Firstly, literature on performance measurement frameworks and performance measurement factors of supply chain management will help to develop a conceptual framework. Next the proposed framework will be presented. The framework will be validated through in-depth interviews with three Thai manufacturing companies. The fieldwork combined varied sources in order to understand the views of manufacturers on supply chain performance in the three case study companies. The collected data were analyzed, interpreted, and reported using thematic analysis and analysis hierarchy process (AHP), which was influenced by the study’s conceptual framework. This research contributes a new theory of supply chain performance measurement and knowledge on supply chain characteristics of a developing country, Thailand. The research also affects organisations by preparing decision makers to make strategic, tactical and operational level decisions with respect to supply chain macro processes. The results from the case studies also indicate the similarities and differences in their supply chain performance. Furthermore, the implications of the study are offered for both academic and practical use.

A systems approach to strategic manpower planning for technological development under conditions of manpower scarcity and centralised control

This thesis deals with the integration of the manpower criterion with the strategic decision making processes of technological projects in developing countries. This integration is to be achieved by ensuring the involvement of the actors, who have relevant roles and responsibilities along the whole life cycle of the project, in the strategic decision making phases of the project. The relevance of the actors is ascertained by the use of a responsibility index which relates their responsibility to the project's constituent stages. In the context of a technological project in a typical centrally-planned developing environment, the actors are identified as Arbiters, Planners, Implementors and Operators and their roles, concerns and objectives are derived. In this context, the actors are usually government and non-government organisations. Hence, decision making will involve multiple agencies as well as multiple criteria. A methodology covering the whole decision-making process, from options generation to options selection, and adopting Saaty's Analytical Hierarchy Process as an operational tool is proposed to deal with such multiple-criteria, multipleagency decision situations. The methodology is intended to integrate the consideration of the relevant criteria, the prevailing environmental and policy factors, and the concerns and objectives of the relevant actors into a unifying decision-making process which strives to facilitate enlightened decision making and to enhance learning and interaction. An extensive assessment of the methodology's feasibility, based on a specific technological project within the Iraqi oil industry is included, and indicates that the methodology should be both useful and implementable.

Design of a novel solar thermal collector using a multi-criteria decision-making methodology

Three novel solar thermal collector concepts derived from the Linear Fresnel Reflector (LFR) are developed and evaluated through a multi-criteria decision-making methodology, comprising the following techniques: Quality Function Deployment (QFD), the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Pugh selection matrix. Criteria are specified by technical and customer requirements gathered from Gujarat, India. The concepts are compared to a standard LFR for reference, and as a result, a novel 'Elevation Linear Fresnel Reflector' (ELFR) concept using elevating mirrors is selected. A detailed version of this concept is proposed and compared against two standard LFR configurations, one using constant and the other using variable horizontal mirror spacing. Annual performance is analysed for a typical meteorological year. Financial assessment is made through the construction of a prototype. The novel LFR has an annual optical efficiency of 49% and increases exergy by 13-23%. Operational hours above a target temperature of 300 C are increased by 9-24%. A 17% reduction in land usage is also achievable. However, the ELFR suffers from additional complexity and a 16-28% increase in capital cost. It is concluded that this novel design is particularly promising for industrial applications and locations with restricted land availability or high land costs. The decision analysis methodology adopted is considered to have a wider potential for applications in the fields of renewable energy and sustainable design. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Solar thermal collectors for use in hybrid solar-biomass power plants in India

This thesis examined solar thermal collectors for use in alternative hybrid solar-biomass power plant applications in Gujarat, India. Following a preliminary review, the cost-effective selection and design of the solar thermal field were identified as critical factors underlying the success of hybrid plants. Consequently, the existing solar thermal technologies were reviewed and ranked for use in India by means of a multi-criteria decision-making method, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Informed by the outcome of the AHP, the thesis went on to pursue the Linear Fresnel Reflector (LFR), the design of which was optimised with the help of ray-tracing. To further enhance collector performance, LFR concepts incorporating novel mirror spacing and drive mechanisms were evaluated. Subsequently, a new variant, termed the Elevation Linear Fresnel Reflector (ELFR) was designed, constructed and tested at Aston University, UK, therefore allowing theoretical models for the performance of a solar thermal field to be verified. Based on the resulting characteristics of the LFR, and data gathered for the other hybrid system components, models of hybrid LFR- and ELFR-biomass power plants were developed and analysed in TRNSYS®. The techno-economic and environmental consequences of varying the size of the solar field in relation to the total plant capacity were modelled for a series of case studies to evaluate different applications: tri-generation (electricity, ice and heat), electricity-only generation, and process heat. The case studies also encompassed varying site locations, capacities, operational conditions and financial situations. In the case of a hybrid tri-generation plant in Gujarat, it was recommended to use an LFR solar thermal field of 14,000 m2 aperture with a 3 tonne biomass boiler, generating 815 MWh per annum of electricity for nearby villages and 12,450 tonnes of ice per annum for local fisheries and food industries. However, at the expense of a 0.3 ¢/kWh increase in levelised energy costs, the ELFR increased saving of biomass (100 t/a) and land (9 ha/a). For solar thermal applications in areas with high land cost, the ELFR reduced levelised energy costs. It was determined that off-grid hybrid plants for tri-generation were the most feasible application in India. Whereas biomass-only plants were found to be more economically viable, it was concluded that hybrid systems will soon become cost competitive and can considerably improve current energy security and biomass supply chain issues in India.

An interdisciplinary approach to designing and evaluating a hybrid solar-biomass power plant

Purpose: Energy security is a major concern for India and many rural areas remain un-electrified. Thus, innovations in sustainable technologies to provide energy services are required. Biomass and solar energy in particular are resources that are widely available and underutilised in India. This paper aims to provide an overview of a methodology that was developed for designing and assessing the feasibility of a hybrid solar-biomass power plant in Gujarat. Design/methodology/approach: The methodology described is a combination of engineering and business management studies used to evaluate and design solar thermal collectors for specific applications and locations. For the scenario of a hybrid plant, the methodology involved: the analytical hierarchy process, for solar thermal technology selection; a cost-exergy approach, for design optimisation; quality function deployment, for designing and evaluating a novel collector - termed the elevation linear Fresnel reflector (ELFR); and case study simulations, for analysing alternative hybrid plant configurations. Findings: The paper recommended that for a hybrid plant in Gujarat, a linear Fresnel reflector of 14,000 m2 aperture is integrated with a 3 tonne per hour biomass boiler, generating 815 MWh per annum of electricity for nearby villages and 12,450 tonnes of ice per annum for local fisheries and food industries. However, at the expense of a 0.3 ¢/kWh increase in levelised energy costs, the ELFR can increase savings of biomass (100 t/a) and land (9 ha/a). Research limitations/implications: The research reviewed in this paper is primarily theoretical and further work will need to be undertaken to specify plant details such as piping layout, pump sizing and structure, and assess plant performance during real operational conditions. Originality/value: The paper considers the methodology adopted proved to be a powerful tool for integrating technology selection, optimisation, design and evaluation and promotes interdisciplinary methods for improving sustainable engineering design and energy management. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Green supply chain performance measurement using fuzzy ANP-based balanced scorecard:a collaborative decision-making approach

The purpose of this paper is to delineate a green supply chain (GSC) performance measurement framework using an intra-organisational collaborative decision-making (CDM) approach. A fuzzy analytic network process (ANP)-based green-balanced scorecard (GrBSc) has been used within the CDM approach to assist in arriving at a consistent, accurate and timely data flow across all cross-functional areas of a business. A green causal relationship is established and linked to the fuzzy ANP approach. The causal relationship involves organisational commitment, eco-design, GSC process, social performance and sustainable performance constructs. Sub-constructs and sub-sub-constructs are also identified and linked to the causal relationship to form a network. The fuzzy ANP approach suitably handles the vagueness of the linguistics information of the CDM approach. The CDM approach is implemented in a UK-based carpet-manufacturing firm. The performance measurement approach, in addition to the traditional financial performance and accounting measures, aids in firms decision-making with regard to the overall organisational goals. The implemented approach assists the firm in identifying further requirements of the collaborative data across the supply-cain and information about customers and markets. Overall, the CDM-based GrBSc approach assists managers in deciding if the suppliers performances meet the industry and environment standards with effective human resource. © 2013 Taylor & Francis.

Fuel supplier selection for large scale UK bioenergy schemes

This article presents a potential method to assist developers of future bioenergy schemes when selecting from available suppliers of biomass materials. The method aims to allow tacit requirements made on biomass suppliers to be considered at the design stage of new developments. The method used is a combination of the Analytical Hierarchy Process and the Quality Function Deployment methods (AHP-QFD). The output of the method is a ranking and relative weighting of the available suppliers which could be used to improve optimization algorithms such as linear and goal programming. The paper is at a conceptual stage and no results have been obtained. The aim is to use the AHP-QFD method to bridge the gap between treatment of explicit and tacit requirements of bioenergy schemes; allowing decision makers to identify the most successful supply strategy available.

Decision support system for pipeline route selection

Presents information on a study which proposed a decision support system (DSS) for a petroleum pipeline route selection with the application of analytical hierarchy process. Factors governing route-selection for cross-country petroleum pipelines; Application of the DSS from an Indian perspective; Cost benefit comparison of the shortest route and the optimal route; Results and findings.

Cloud adoption:prioritizing obstacles and obstacles resolution tactics using AHP

The enormous potential of cloud computing for improved and cost-effective service has generated unprecedented interest in its adoption. However, a potential cloud user faces numerous risks regarding service requirements, cost implications of failure and uncertainty about cloud providers' ability to meet service level agreements. These risks hinder the adoption of cloud. We extend the work on goal-oriented requirements engineering (GORE) and obstacles for informing the adoption process. We argue that obstacles prioritisation and their resolution is core to mitigating risks in the adoption process. We propose a novel systematic method for prioritising obstacles and their resolution tactics using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). We provide an example to demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of the approach. To assess the AHP choice of the resolution tactics we support the method by stability and sensitivity analysis. Copyright 2014 ACM.

Decision-making in product quality based on failure knowledge

Decision-making in product quality is an indispensable stage in product development, in order to reduce product development risk. Based on the identification of the deficiencies of quality function deployment (QFD) and failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), a novel decision-making method is presented that draws upon a knowledge network of failure scenarios. An ontological expression of failure scenarios is presented together with a framework of failure knowledge network (FKN). According to the roles of quality characteristics (QCs) in failure processing, QCs are set into three categories namely perceptible QCs, restrictive QCs, and controllable QCs, which present the monitor targets, control targets and improvement targets respectively for quality management. A mathematical model and algorithms based on the analytic network process (ANP) is introduced for calculating the priority of QCs with respect to different development scenarios. A case study is provided according to the proposed decision-making procedure based on FKN. This methodology is applied in the propeller design process to solve the problem of prioritising QCs. This paper provides a practical approach for decision-making in product quality. Copyright © 2011 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.