Using Micro-Gravity Techniques to Map Alluvium Thickness and Pleistocene Location of the West Branch of the Susquehanna River Near Muncy, Pennsylvania

Laurentide glaciation during the early Pleistocene (~970 ka) dammed the southeast-flowing West Branch of the Susquehanna River (WBSR), scouring bedrock and creating 100-km-long glacial Lake Lesley near the Great Bend at Muncy, Pennsylvania (Ramage et al., 1998). Local drill logs and well data indicate that subsequent paleo-outwash floods and modern fluvial processes have deposited as much as 30 meters of alluvium in this area, but little is known about the valley fill architecture and the bedrock-alluvium interface. By gaining a greater understanding of the bedrock-alluvium interface the project will not only supplement existing depth to bedrock information, but also provide information pertinent to the evolution of the Muncy Valley landscape. This project determined if variations in the thickness of the valley fill were detectable using micro-gravity techniques to map the bedrock-alluvium interface. The gravity method was deemed appropriate due to scale of the study area (~30 km2), ease of operation by a single person, and the available geophysical equipment. A LaCoste and Romberg Gravitron unit was used to collect gravitational field readings at 49 locations over 5 transects across the Muncy Creek and Susquehanna River valleys (approximately 30 km2), with at least two gravity base stations per transect. Precise latitude, longitude and ground surface elevation at each location were measured using an OPUS corrected Trimble RTK-GPS unit. Base stations were chosen based on ease of access due to the necessity of repeat measurements. Gravity measurement locations were selected and marked to provide easy access and repeat measurements. The gravimeter was returned to a base station within every two hours and a looping procedure was used to determine drift and maximize confidence in the gravity measurements. A two-minute calibration reading at each station was used to minimize any tares in the data. The Gravitron digitally recorded finite impulse response filtered gravity measurements every 20 seconds at each station. A measurement period of 15 minutes was used for each base station occupation and a minimum of 5 minutes at all other locations. Longer or multiple measurements were utilized at some sites if drift or other externalities (i.e. train or truck traffic) were effecting readings. Average, median, standard deviation and 95% confidence interval were calculated for each station. Tidal, drift, latitude, free-air, Bouguer and terrain corrections were then applied. The results show that the gravitational field decreases as alluvium thickness increases across the axes of the Susquehanna River and Muncy Creek valleys. However, the location of the gravity low does not correspond with the present-day location of the West Branch of the Susquehanna River (WBSR), suggesting that the WBSR may have been constrained along Bald Eagle Mountain by a glacial lobe originating from the Muncy Creek Valley to the northeast. Using a 3-D inversion model, the topography of the bedrock-alluvium interface was determined over the extent of the study area using a density contrast of -0.8 g/cm3. Our results are consistent with the bedrock geometry of the area, and provide a low-cost, non-invasive and efficient method for exploring the subsurface and for supplementing existing well data.

THE USE OF LIFE-CYCLE ANALYSIS TO REDUCE THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF MATERIALS IN MANUFACTURING

This thesis is composed of three life-cycle analysis (LCA) studies of manufacturing to determine cumulative energy demand (CED) and greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). The methods proposed could reduce the environmental impact by reducing the CED in three manufacturing processes. First, industrial symbiosis is proposed and a LCA is performed on both conventional 1 GW-scaled hydrogenated amorphous silicon (a-Si:H)-based single junction and a-Si:H/microcrystalline-Si:H tandem cell solar PV manufacturing plants and such plants coupled to silane recycling plants. Using a recycling process that results in a silane loss of only 17 versus 85 percent, this results in a CED savings of 81,700 GJ and 290,000 GJ per year for single and tandem junction plants, respectively. This recycling process reduces the cost of raw silane by 68 percent, or approximately $22.6 and $79 million per year for a single and tandem 1 GW PV production facility, respectively. The results show environmental benefits of silane recycling centered around a-Si:H-based PV manufacturing plants. Second, an open-source self-replicating rapid prototype or 3-D printer, the RepRap, has the potential to reduce the environmental impact of manufacturing of polymer-based products, using distributed manufacturing paradigm, which is further minimized by the use of PV and improvements in PV manufacturing. Using 3-D printers for manufacturing provides the ability to ultra-customize products and to change fill composition, which increases material efficiency. An LCA was performed on three polymer-based products to determine the CED and GHG from conventional large-scale production and are compared to experimental measurements on a RepRap producing identical products with ABS and PLA. The results of this LCA study indicate that the CED of manufacturing polymer products can possibly be reduced using distributed manufacturing with existing 3-D printers under 89% fill and reduced even further with a solar photovoltaic system. The results indicate that the ability of RepRaps to vary fill has the potential to diminish environmental impact on many products. Third, one additional way to improve the environmental performance of this distributed manufacturing system is to create the polymer filament feedstock for 3-D printers using post-consumer plastic bottles. An LCA was performed on the recycling of high density polyethylene (HDPE) using the RecycleBot. The results of the LCA showed that distributed recycling has a lower CED than the best-case scenario used for centralized recycling. If this process is applied to the HDPE currently recycled in the U.S., more than 100 million MJ of energy could be conserved per annum along with significant reductions in GHG. This presents a novel path to a future of distributed manufacturing suited for both the developed and developing world with reduced environmental impact. From improving manufacturing in the photovoltaic industry with the use of recycling to recycling and manufacturing plastic products within our own homes, each step reduces the impact on the environment. The three coupled projects presented here show a clear potential to reduce the environmental impact of manufacturing and other processes by implementing complimenting systems, which have environmental benefits of their own in order to achieve a compounding effect of reduced CED and GHG.

Flow disturbances in stent-related coronary evaginations: a computational fluid-dynamic simulation study

Aims: Angiographic ectasias and aneurysms in stented segments have been associated with late stent thrombosis. Using optical coherence tomography (OCT), some stented segments show coronary evaginations reminiscent of ectasias. The purpose of this study was to explore, using computational fluid-dynamic (CFD) simulations, whether OCT-detected coronary evaginations can induce local changes in blood flow. Methods and results: OCT-detected evaginations are defined as outward bulges in the luminal vessel contour between struts, with the depth of the bulge exceeding the actual strut thickness. Evaginations can be characterised cross ectionally by depth and along the stented segment by total length. Assuming an ellipsoid shape, we modelled 3-D evaginations with different sizes by varying the depth from 0.2-1.0 mm, and the length from 1-9 mm. For the flow simulation we used average flow velocity data from non-diseased coronary arteries. The change in flow with varying evagination sizes was assessed using a particle tracing test where the particle transit time within the segment with evagination was compared with that of a control vessel. The presence of the evagination caused a delayed particle transit time which increased with the evagination size. The change in flow consisted locally of recirculation within the evagination, as well as flow deceleration due to a larger lumen - seen as a deflection of flow towards the evagination. Conclusions: CFD simulation of 3-D evaginations and blood flow suggests that evaginations affect flow locally, with a flow disturbance that increases with increasing evagination size.

Tidally Driven Exchange in an Archipelago Strait: Biological and Optical Responses

Measurements in San Bernardino Strait, one of two major connections between the Pacific Ocean and the interior waters of the Philippine Archipelago, captured 2-3 m s(-1) tidal currents that drove vertical mixing and net landward transport. A TRIAXUS towed profiling vehicle equipped with physical and optical sensors was used to repeatedly map subregions within the strait, employing survey patterns designed to resolve tidal variability of physical and optical properties. Strong flow over the sill between Luzon and Capul islands resulted in upward transport and mixing of deeper high-salinity, low-oxygen, high-particle-and-nutrient-concentration water into the upper water column, landward of the sill. During the high-velocity ebb flow, topography influences the vertical distribution of water, but without the diapycnal mixing observed during flood tide. The surveys captured a net landward flux of water through the narrowest part of the strait. The tidally varying velocities contribute to strong vertical transport and diapycnal mixing of the deeper water into the upper layer, contributing to the observed higher phytoplankton biomass within the interior of the strait.

Dispersal Modeling of Fish Early Life Stages: Sensitivity with Application to Atlantic Cod in the Western Gulf of Maine

As an initial step in establishing mechanistic relationships between environmental variability and recruitment in Atlantic cod Gadhus morhua along the coast of the western Gulf of Maine, we assessed transport success of larvae from major spawning grounds to nursery areas with particle tracking using the unstructured grid model FVCOM (finite volume coastal ocean model). In coastal areas, dispersal of early planktonic life stages of fish and invertebrate species is highly dependent on the regional dynamics and its variability, which has to be captured by our models. With state-of-the-art forcing for the year 1995, we evaluate the sensitivity of particle dispersal to the timing and location of spawning, the spatial and temporal resolution of the model, and the vertical mixing scheme. A 3 d frequency for the release of particles is necessary to capture the effect of the circulation variability into an averaged dispersal pattern of the spawning season. The analysis of sensitivity to model setup showed that a higher resolution mesh, tidal forcing, and current variability do not change the general pattern of connectivity, but do tend to increase within-site retention. Our results indicate strong downstream connectivity among spawning grounds and higher chances for successful transport from spawning areas closer to the coast. The model run for January egg release indicates 1 to 19 % within-spawning ground retention of initial particles, which may be sufficient to sustain local populations. A systematic sensitivity analysis still needs to be conducted to determine the minimum mesh and forcing resolution that adequately resolves the complex dynamics of the western Gulf of Maine. Other sources of variability, i.e. large-scale upstream forcing and the biological environment, also need to be considered in future studies of the interannual variability in transport and survival of the early life stages of cod.

Implants placed in fresh extraction sockets in the maxilla: clinical and radiographic outcomes from a 3-year follow-up examination

AIM The aim of this prospective, randomized, controlled multicenter study was to determine the 3-year efficacy and stability of the soft and hard tissues at implants with a different geometry that were placed in fresh extraction sockets. MATERIAL AND METHODS Implants with two different configurations, cylindrical (Group A) or conical/cylindrical (Group B) were installed, and healing abutments were attached. Sixteen weeks after implant placement, subjects returned for a re-entry procedure. Prosthetic restorations were delivered 22 weeks after implant placement. Each subject was placed in a 3-year follow-up program, including examinations at yearly visits including various soft tissue and bone level parameters. RESULTS The percentage of sites that were considered inflamed during the follow-up period was stable and varied between 8.8% and 10.2%. The radiographic examinations documented improved bone levels at the final examination and the mean improvement from baseline (placement of permanent restoration; PR) amounted to 0.17 ± 0.67 mm. More than 70% (54 of 76) of the implants monitored in this study suffered no bone loss during the maintenance period. Moreover, there was an obvious "gain" of interproximal soft tissue volume and at the 3-year examination around 25% of all embrasure gaps were completely filled with "papillae". CONCLUSIONS Both conical/cylindrical and cylindrical implants placed in fresh extraction sockets allowed proper soft and hard tissue healing to occur. At both types of implants, mucosal inflammation was infrequent, marginal bone levels were maintained, and soft tissue volume increased gradually after the placement of the permanent restoration.

Lagrangian back-tracing results for Kohnen station; output of time dependent numerical experiment with a 3D nested Antarctic ice sheet model

A nested ice flow model was developed for eastern Dronning Maud Land to assist with the dating and interpretation of the EDML deep ice core. The model consists of a high-resolution higher-order ice dynamic flow model that was nested into a comprehensive 3-D thermomechanical model of the whole Antarctic ice sheet. As the drill site is on a flank position the calculations specifically take into account the effects of horizontal advection as deeper ice in the core originated from higher inland. First the regional velocity field and ice sheet geometry is obtained from a forward experiment over the last 8 glacial cycles. The result is subsequently employed in a Lagrangian backtracing algorithm to provide particle paths back to their time and place of deposition. The procedure directly yields the depth-age distribution, surface conditions at particle origin, and a suite of relevant parameters such as initial annual layer thickness. This paper discusses the method and the main results of the experiment, including the ice core chronology, the non-climatic corrections needed to extract the climatic part of the signal, and the thinning function. The focus is on the upper 89% of the ice core (appr. 170 kyears) as the dating below that is increasingly less robust owing to the unknown value of the geothermal heat flux. It is found that the temperature biases resulting from variations of surface elevation are up to half of the magnitude of the climatic changes themselves.

Pollen records and lithology of profiles from Lobsigensee, Switzerland

Lobsigensee is a small kettle hole lake 15 km north-west of Bern on the Swiss Plateau, at an altitude of 514 m asl. Its surface is 2ha today, its maximum depth 2.7 m; it has no inlet and the overflow functions mainly during snow melting. The area was covered by Rhone ice during the Last Glaciation (map in Fig.2). Local geology, climate and vegetation are summarized in Figure 3A-C, the history of settlement in Figures 5-7. In order to reconstruct the vegetational and environmental history of the lake and its surroundings pollen analysis and other bio- and isotope stratigraphies were applied to twelve profiles cored across the basin with modified Livingstone corers (Fig.3 D). (1) The standard diagram: The central core LQ-90 is described as the standard pollen diagram (Chapter 3) with 10 local pollen assemblage zones of the Late-Glacial (local PAZ Ll to Ll0, from about 16'000(7) to 10'000 years BP) and 20 PAZ of the Holocene (local PAZ L11 to L30), see Figs. 8-10 and 20-24. Local PAZ L 1 to L3 are in the Late-Glacial clay and record the vegetational development after the ice retreat: L1 shows very low pollen concentration and high Pinus percentages due to long-distance transport and reworking; the latter mechanism is corroborated by the findings of thermophilous and pre-Quaternary taxa. Local PAZ L2 has a high di versi ty of non-arboreal pollen (NAP) and reflects the Late-Glacial steppe rich in heliophilous species. Local PAZ L3 is similar but additionally rich in Betula nana and Sal1x, thus reflecting a "shrub tundra". The PAZ L1 to L3 belong to the Oldest Dryas biozone. Local PAZ L4 to L 10 are found in the gyttja of the profundal or in the lake marl of the littoral and record the Late-Glacial forests. L4 is the shrub phase of reforestation with very high Junlperus and rapidly increasing Betula percentages. L5 is the PAZ with a first, L7 with a second dominance of tree-birches, separated by L6 showing a depression in the Betula curve. L4 to L7 can be assigned to the Balling biozone. Possible correlation of the Betula depression to the Older Dryas biozone is discussed. In local PAZ L8 Plnus immigrates and expands. L9 shows a facies difference in that Plnus dominates over Betula in littoral but not in profundal spectra. L8 and L9 belong to the Allerod biozone. In its youngest part the volcanic ash from Laach/Eifel is regularly found (11,000 BP). The local PAZ Ll0 corresponds to the Younger Dryas blozone. The merely slight increase of the NAP indicates that the pine forests of the lowland were not strongly affected by a cooler climate. In order to evaluate the significance of the littoral accumulation of coniferous pollen the littoral profile LQ-150 is compared to the profundal. Radiocarbon stratigraphies derived from different materials are presented in Figures 13 and 14 and in Tables 2 and 3. The hard-water errors in the gyttja samples and the carbonate samples are similar. The samples of terrestrial plant macrofossils are not affected by hard-water errors. Two plateaux of constant age appear in the age-depth relationship; their consequence for biostratigraphy as well as pollen concentration and influx diagrams are discussed. Radiocarbon ages of the Late-Glacial pollen zones are shown in Table 10. The Holocene vegetational history is recorded in the local PAZ L 11 to L30. After a Preboreal (PAZ L11) dominated by pine and birch the expansions of Corylus, Ulmus and Quercus are very rapid. Among these taxa Corylus dominates dur ing the Boreal (PAZ L 12 and L 1 3), whereas the components of the mixed oak forest dominate in the Older Atlantic (PAZ L14 to L16). In the Younger Atlantic (PAZ L 17 to L 19) Fagus and Alnus play an increasing, the mixed oak forest a decreasing role. During the period of local PAZ L19 Neolithic settlers lived on the shore of Lobsigensee. During the Subboreal (PAZ L20 and L21) and the Older Subatlantic (L22 to L25) strong fluctuations of Fagus and often antagonistic peaks of NAP, Alnus, Betula and Corylus can be interpreted as signs of human impact on vegetation. L23 is characterized not only by high values of NAP (especially apophytes and anthropochorous species) but also by the appearance of Juglans, Castanea and Secale which point to the Roman colonization of the area. For a certain period during the Younger Subatlantic (PAZ L26 to L30) the lake was used for retting hemp (Cannabis). Later the dominance of Quercus pollen indicates the importance of wood pastures. The youngest sediments reflect the wide-spread agricultural grass lands and the plantation of Pinus and Picea. Radiocarbon dates for the Holocene are given in Figure 23 and Table 4, the extrapolated ages of the Holocene pollen zones in Table 15. (2) The cross sections: Figures 25 and 26 give a summary of the litho- and palynostratigraphy of the two cross sections. Based on 11 Late-Glacial and 9 Holocene pollen diagrams (in addition to the standard ones), the consistency of the criteria for the definition of the pollen zones is examined in Tables 7 and 8 for the Late-Glacial and in Tables 11 to 14 for the Holocene. Sediment thicknesses across the basin for each pollen zone are presented in these tables as well as in Figures 43 to 45 for the Late-Glacial and in Figures 59 to 65 for the Holocene. Sediment focusing can explain differences between the gyttja cores of the profundal. Focusing is more than compensated for through "stretching" by carbonate precipitation on the littoral terrace. Pollen influx to the cross section are discussed (Chapters 4.1.5. and 4.2.3.). (3) The regional pollen zones: Based on some selected sites between Lake Geneva and Lake Constance regional pollen zones are proposed (Table 16, 17 and 19). (4) Paleoecology: Climatic change in the Late-Glacial can be inferred from Coleoptera, Trichoptera, Chironomidae and d18O of carbonates: a distinct warming is recorded around 12' 600 BP and around 10' 000 BP. The Younger Dryas biozone (10'700-10'000 BP) was the only cooling found in the Late-Glacial. The Betula depression often correlated wi th the Older Dryas biozone was possibl not colder but dryer than the previous period. During the Holocene the lowland site is not very sensitive to the minor climatic changes. Table 22 summarizes climatic and trophic changes before 8'000 BP as deduced from various biostratigraphies studied by a number of authors. Ostracods, Chironomids and fossil pigments indicate that anoxic conditions prevailed during the BoIling (possibly meromixis). Changes in the lake level are illustrated in Figure 74. A first lake-level lowering occurred in the early Holocene (10'000 to 9'000 BP), a second during the Atlantic (about 6'800 to 5'200 BP). The first "shrinking" of the lake volume resulted in a eutrophication recorded by laminations in the profundal and by pigments of Cyanophyceae. The second fall in water level corresponds to an increase of Nymphaeaceae. Human impact can be inferred in three ways: eutrophication of the lake (since the Neolithic), changes of terrestrial vegetation by deforestations (cyclicity of Fagus, see Figures 78 to 80), and enhanced erosion (increasing sedimentation rates by inwashed clay, particularly since the Roman Colonization, see Figures 49 and 81). Summary: This paper was planned as the final report on Lobsigensee. However, a number of issues are not answered but can only be asked more precisely, for example: (1) For the two periods with the highest rates of change, Le. the Bolling and the Preboreal biozones, pollen influx may reflect vegetation dynamics. Detailed investigations of these periods in annually laminated sediments are planned. (2) Biostratigraphies other than palynostratigraphy are needed to estimate the degree of linkage or independence in the development of terrestrial and lacustrine ecosystems. Often our sampling intervals were not identical, thus influencing our temporal resolution. (3) 6180- and 14C-stratigraPhies with high resolution will elucidate the leads and lags of these dynamic periods. Plateaux of constant age in the age-depth relationship have a strong bearing on both biological and geophysical understanding of Late-Glacial and early Holocene developments. (4) Numerical methods applied to the pollen diagrams of the cross section will help to quantify the significance of similari ties and dissimilarities across a single basin (with Prof. Birks). (5) Numerical methods applied to different sites on the Swiss Plateau and on the transect across the Alps will be helpful in evaluating the influence of different environmental factors (with Prof. Birks). (6) A new map 1: 1000 with 50cm-contour lines prov ided by Prof. Zurbuchen will be combined with a grid of cores sampling the transition from lake marl to peat enabling us to calculate paleo-volumes of the lake. This is interesting for the two "shrinking periods" (in Fig. 74A numbers 2-6 and 7-10), both accompanied by eutrophication. The pal eo-volume during the Neoli thic set tlement of the Cortaillod culture linked wi th an est l.mate of trophic change derived from diatoms (Prof. Smol in prep.) could possibly give an indication of the size of the human population of this period. (7) For the period with the antagonism between Fagus peaks and ABC-peaks close collaboration between palynologists, geochemists and archeologists should enable us to determine the influence of prehistoric and historic people on vegetation (collaboration with Prof. Stockli and Prof. Herzig). (8) The core LL-75 taken with a "cold letter box" will be analysed for major and trace elements by Dr. Sturm for 210pb and 137Cs by Prof.von Gunten and for pollen. We will see if our local PAZ L30 really corresponds to the surface sediment and if the small seepage lake reflects modern pollution.

Fossil pollen record of composite sediment core TMD from Tso Moriri, analysis of modern surface pollen samples, mean annual precipitation reconstruction, and digitisation and recalibration of different discussed palaeoclimate proxy records

This paper presents a new fossil pollen record from Tso Moriri (32°54'N, 78°19'E, 4512 m a.s.l.) and seeks to reconstruct changes in mean annual precipitation (MAP) during the last 12,000 years. This high-alpine lake occupies an area of 140 km**2 in a glacial-tectonic valley in the northwestern Himalaya. The region has a cold climate, with a MAP <300 mm, and open vegetation. The hydrology is controlled by the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM), but winter westerly-associated precipitation also affects the regional water balance. Results indicate that precipitation levels varied significantly during the Holocene. After a rapid increase in MAP, a phase of maximum humidity was reached between ca. 11 to 9.6 cal ka BP, followed by a gradual decline in MAP. This trend parallels the reduction in the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Comparison of different palaeoclimate proxy records reveal evidence for a stronger Holocene decrease in precipitation in the northern versus the southern parts of the ISM domain. The long-term trend of ISM weakening is overlaid with several short periods of greater dryness, which are broadly synchronous with the North Atlantic cold spells, suggesting reduced amounts of westerly-associated winter precipitation. Compared to the mid and late Holocene, it appears that westerlies had a greater influence on the western parts of the ISM domain during the early Holocene. During this period, the westerly-associated summer precipitation belt was positioned at Mediterranean latitudes and amplified the ISM-derived precipitation. The Tso Moriri pollen record and moisture reconstructions also suggest that changes in climatic conditions affected the ancient Harappan Civilisation, which flourished in the greater Indus Valley from approximately 5.2 to 3 cal ka BP. The prolonged Holocene trend towards aridity, punctuated by an interval of increased dryness (between ca. 4.5 to 4.3 cal ka BP), may have pushed the Mature Harappan urban settlements (between ca. 4.5 to 3.9 cal ka BP) to develop more efficient agricultural practices to deal with the increasingly acute water shortages. The amplified aridity associated with North Atlantic cooling between ca. 4 to 3.6 and around 3.2 cal ka BP further hindered local agriculture, possibly causing the deurbanisation that occurred from ca. 3.9 cal ka BP and eventual collapse of the Harappan Civilisation between ca. 3.5 to 3 cal ka BP.

Table 1: Technetium-99 in seawater in the West Spitsbergen Current and adjacent areas, sorted from east to west

99Tc levels were measured in seawater samples collected between 2000 and 2002 in the West Spitsbergen Current (WSC) and along the western coast of Svalbard or Spitzbergen and compared with available oceanographic 3-D modelling results for the late 1990s. Additional data from related regions are also presented in order to support the data interpretation. The seawater in the Arctic fjord Kongsfjorden on the western coast of Svalbard is influenced by the WSC, as shown by the 99Tc levels in surface water. By means of the WSC, 99Tc reaches the Eastern Fram Strait, where one branch of the WSC turns west into the East Greenland Current (EGC), and another branch continues northwards into the Arctic Ocean. Surface seawater collected in the central part of the WSC during a cruise on board the R/V "Polarstern" in the summer of 2000, showed higher levels of 99Tc than samples measured in Kongsfjorden in the spring of 2000. However, all levels measured in surface water are of the same order of magnitude. Data from sampling of deeper water in the WSC and EGC provide information pertaining to the lateral distribution of 99Tc. In all vertical profiling surveys (conducted in spring and summer), the highest levels of 99Tc were found in surface water. Comparison with oceanographic 3-D modelling indicates both significant seasonal variations in the lateral stratification of the WSC and variations with depth over shorter vertical distances. This information can be applied in sampling strategies, environmental monitoring, long-range transport of pollutants and physical oceanography.

Development of a 3-Dimensional Mathematical Collision Risk Model Based on Recorded Aircraft Trajectories to Estimate the Safety Level in High Density En-Route Airspaces

Como en todos los medios de transporte, la seguridad en los viajes en avión es de primordial importancia. Con los aumentos de tráfico aéreo previstos en Europa para la próxima década, es evidente que el riesgo de accidentes necesita ser evaluado y monitorizado cuidadosamente de forma continúa. La Tesis presente tiene como objetivo el desarrollo de un modelo de riesgo de colisión exhaustivo como método para evaluar el nivel de seguridad en ruta del espacio aéreo europeo, considerando todos los factores de influencia. La mayor limitación en el desarrollo de metodologías y herramientas de monitorización adecuadas para evaluar el nivel de seguridad en espacios de ruta europeos, donde los controladores aéreos monitorizan el tráfico aéreo mediante la vigilancia radar y proporcionan instrucciones tácticas a las aeronaves, reside en la estimación del riesgo operacional. Hoy en día, la estimación del riesgo operacional está basada normalmente en reportes de incidentes proporcionados por el proveedor de servicios de navegación aérea (ANSP). Esta Tesis propone un nuevo e innovador enfoque para evaluar el nivel de seguridad basado exclusivamente en el procesamiento y análisis trazas radar. La metodología propuesta ha sido diseñada para complementar la información recogida en las bases de datos de accidentes e incidentes, mediante la provisión de información robusta de los factores de tráfico aéreo y métricas de seguridad inferidas del análisis automático en profundidad de todos los eventos de proximidad. La metodología 3-D CRM se ha implementado en un prototipo desarrollado en MATLAB © para analizar automáticamente las trazas radar y planes de vuelo registrados por los Sistemas de Procesamiento de Datos Radar (RDP) e identificar y analizar todos los eventos de proximidad (conflictos, conflictos potenciales y colisiones potenciales) en un periodo de tiempo y volumen del espacio aéreo. Actualmente, el prototipo 3-D CRM está siendo adaptado e integrado en la herramienta de monitorización de prestaciones de Aena (PERSEO) para complementar las bases de accidentes e incidentes ATM y mejorar la monitorización y proporcionar evidencias de los niveles de seguridad. ABSTRACT As with all forms of transport, the safety of air travel is of paramount importance. With the projected increases in European air traffic in the next decade and beyond, it is clear that the risk of accidents needs to be assessed and carefully monitored on a continuing basis. The present thesis is aimed at the development of a comprehensive collision risk model as a method of assessing the European en-route risk, due to all causes and across all dimensions within the airspace. The major constraint in developing appropriate monitoring methodologies and tools to assess the level of safety in en-route airspaces where controllers monitor air traffic by means of radar surveillance and provide aircraft with tactical instructions lies in the estimation of the operational risk. The operational risk estimate normally relies on incident reports provided by the air navigation service providers (ANSPs). This thesis proposes a new and innovative approach to assessing aircraft safety level based exclusively upon the process and analysis of radar tracks. The proposed methodology has been designed to complement the information collected in the accident and incident databases, thereby providing robust information on air traffic factors and safety metrics inferred from the in depth assessment of proximate events. The 3-D CRM methodology is implemented in a prototype tool in MATLAB © in order to automatically analyze recorded aircraft tracks and flight plan data from the Radar Data Processing systems (RDP) and identify and analyze all proximate events (conflicts, potential conflicts and potential collisions) within a time span and a given volume of airspace. Currently, the 3D-CRM prototype is been adapted and integrated in AENA’S Performance Monitoring Tool (PERSEO) to complement the information provided by the ATM accident and incident databases and to enhance monitoring and providing evidence of levels of safety.

Quasi-cylindrical approximation to the swirling flow in an atomizer chamber

A quasi-cylindrical approximation is used to analyse the axisymmetric swirling flow of a liquid with a hollow air core in the chamber of a pressure swirl atomizer. The liquid is injected into the chamber with an azimuthal velocity component through a number of slots at the periphery of one end of the chamber, and flows out as an anular sheet through a central orifice at the other end, following a conical convergence of the chamber wall. An effective inlet condition is used to model the effects of the slots and the boundary layer that develops at the nearby endwall of the chamber. An analysis is presented of the structure of the liquid sheet at the end of the exit orifice, where the flow becomes critical in the sense that upstream propagation of long-wave perturbations ceases to be possible. This nalysis leads to a boundary condition at the end of the orifice that is an extension of the condition of maximum flux used with irrotational models of the flow. As is well known, the radial pressure gradient induced by the swirling flow in the bulk of the chamber causes the overpressure that drives the liquid towards the exit orifice, and also leads to Ekman pumping in the boundary layers of reduced azimuthal velocity at the convergent wall of the chamber and at the wall opposite to the exit orifice. The numerical results confirm the important role played by the boundary layers. They make the thickness of the liquid sheet at the end of the orifice larger than predicted by rrotational models, and at the same time tend to decrease the overpressure required to pass a given flow rate through the chamber, because the large axial velocity in the boundary layers takes care of part of the flow rate. The thickness of the boundary layers increases when the atomizer constant (the inverse of a swirl number, proportional to the flow rate scaled with the radius of the exit orifice and the circulation around the air core) decreases. A minimum value of this parameter is found below which the layer of reduced azimuthal velocity around the air core prevents the pressure from increasing and steadily driving the flow through the exit orifice. The effects of other parameters not accounted for by irrotational models are also analysed in terms of their influence on the boundary layers.