A systematic approach to identify the sources of tropical SST errors in coupled models using the adjustment of initialised experiments

Understanding the sources of systematic errors in climate models is challenging because of coupled feedbacks and errors compensation. The developing seamless approach proposes that the identification and the correction of short term climate model errors have the potential to improve the modeled climate on longer time scales. In previous studies, initialised atmospheric simulations of a few days have been used to compare fast physics processes (convection, cloud processes) among models. The present study explores how initialised seasonal to decadal hindcasts (re-forecasts) relate transient week-to-month errors of the ocean and atmospheric components to the coupled model long-term pervasive SST errors. A protocol is designed to attribute the SST biases to the source processes. It includes five steps: (1) identify and describe biases in a coupled stabilized simulation, (2) determine the time scale of the advent of the bias and its propagation, (3) find the geographical origin of the bias, (4) evaluate the degree of coupling in the development of the bias, (5) find the field responsible for the bias. This strategy has been implemented with a set of experiments based on the initial adjustment of initialised simulations and exploring various degrees of coupling. In particular, hindcasts give the time scale of biases advent, regionally restored experiments show the geographical origin and ocean-only simulations isolate the field responsible for the bias and evaluate the degree of coupling in the bias development. This strategy is applied to four prominent SST biases of the IPSLCM5A-LR coupled model in the tropical Pacific, that are largely shared by other coupled models, including the Southeast Pacific warm bias and the equatorial cold tongue bias. Using the proposed protocol, we demonstrate that the East Pacific warm bias appears in a few months and is caused by a lack of upwelling due to too weak meridional coastal winds off Peru. The cold equatorial bias, which surprisingly takes 30 years to develop, is the result of an equatorward advection of midlatitude cold SST errors. Despite large development efforts, the current generation of coupled models shows only little improvement. The strategy proposed in this study is a further step to move from the current random ad hoc approach, to a bias-targeted, priority setting, systematic model development approach.

Parent-child interactions and adolescent anxiety: a systematic review

Parental behaviours have been implicated in the development and maintenance of anxiety in children and young people; however the degree to which findings apply to adolescents specifically remains unclear. We conducted a systematic review of studies examining the evidence for an association between parental behaviours and adolescent anxiety. Twenty two studies were identified. The results of this systematic review provide fairly consistent preliminary evidence for an association between anxiety and perceived parental control and anxious rearing in adolescence. The findings relating to an association between adolescent anxiety and perceived parental rejection and lack of warmth are somewhat less consistent. Methodological shortcomings in the studies mean that these results should be interpreted with caution. Future research should be conducted using observational and experimental design with adolescents from referred, clinical populations to help identify the critical parental processes and clarify the direction of effects.

The Article 51 reporting requirement for self-defense actions

This article examines one legal criterion for the exercise of the right of self-defense that has been significantly overlooked by commentators: the so-called “reporting requirement.” Article 51 of the United Nations (UN) Charter provides, inter alia, that “[m]easures taken by members in the exercise of this right of self-defense shall be immediately reported to the Security Council.” Although the requirement to report all self-defense actions to the Council is clearly set out in Article 51, the Charter offers no further guidance with regard to this obligation. Reference to the practice of states since the UN’s inception in 1945 is therefore essential to understanding the scope and nature of the reporting requirement. As such, this article is underpinned by an extensive original dataset of reporting practice covering the period from January 1, 1998 to December 31, 2013. We know from Article 51 that states “shall” report, but do they, and—if so—in what manner? What are the various implications of reporting, of failing to report, and of the way in which states report? How are reports used, and by whom? Most importantly, this article questions the ultimate value of states reporting their self-defense actions to the Security Council in modern interstate relations.

Synthesis of biodegradable polyhydroxyalcanoate copolymer from a renewable source by alternate feeding

Polyhydroxyalcanoates copolymers with 3-hydroxybutirate (3HB) and 3-hydroxyvalerate (3HV) co-monomers, P3(HB-co-x%HV), were produced in fed-batch culture by Ralstonia eutropha DSM428 using fructose as a single carbon source in the first step and adding propionic acid in the second step by alternating feeding. Polymer yield was 0.18 g/L with a content of 24 mol% of the 3HV fraction determined by H-1 NMR. NMR measurements indicated that the polymer obtained is isotactic. The copolymer attained 35% of crystallinity according to X-ray diffraction measurements, and two (020) planes were observed. Thermal behavior presented melting temperature at 154 degrees C and the crystallization temperature was 65 degrees C. A glass transition temperature was observed at -10 degrees C. Average molecular weight measured by GPC was 4.9 x 10(5) Dalton. Isothermal radial growth rates of spherulites of P3(HB-co-24%HV) were studied. All experimental facts and the analysis of the sequence distribution of diads and triads of 3HB and 3HV units led to the conclusion that it is not a completely statistical random copolymer once it contains different types of segments. POLYM.

Determination of amino acids by capillary electrophoresis-electrospray ionization-mass spectrometry: An evaluation of different protein hydrolysis procedures

In this work, a CE equipment, online hyphenated to an IT MS analyzer by a linear sheath liquid interface promoting ESI, was used to develop a method for quantitative determination of amino acids. Under appropriate conditions (BGE composition, 0.8% HCOOH, 20% CH(3)OH; sheath liquid composition, 0.8% HCOOH, 60% methanol; V(ESI), +4.50 W), analytical curves of all amino acids from 3 to 80 mg/L were recorded presenting acceptable linearity (r > 0.99). LODs in the range of 16-172 mu mol/L were obtained. BSA, a model protein, was submitted to different hydrolysis procedures (classical acid and basic, and catalyzed by the H(+) form of a cation exchanger resin) and its amino acid profiles determined. In general, the resin-mediated hydrolysis yields were overall similar or better than those obtained by classical acid or basic hydrolysis. The resulting experimental-to-theoretical BSA concentration ratios served as correction factors for the quantitation of amino acids in Brazil nut resin generated hydrolysates.

Health burden of hip and other fractures in Australia beyond 2000

Objective: To calculate the expected increase in the number of fractures in adults attributable to the predicted increase in the number of elderly Australians.

Data sources: All fractures in adult residents (> 35 years) of the Barwon Statistical Division (total population, 218 000) were identified from radiological reports from February 1994 to February 1996. The Australian Bureau of Statistics supplied predictions of Australia's population (1996 to 2051).

Main outcome measure: The projected annual number of fractures in Australian adults up to 2051 (based on stable rates of fracture in each age group).

Results: The number of fractures per year is projected to increase 25% from 1996 to 2006 (from 83 000 fractures to 104 000). Hip fractures are projected to increase 36% (from 15 000 to 21 000) because of a substantial rise in the number of elderly aged 85 years and over. Hip fractures are expected to double by 2026 and increase fourfold by 2051.

Conclusions: In contrast to Europe and North America, where numbers of hip fractures are expected to double by 2026 and then stabilise, in Australia hip fractures will continue to place a growing demand on healthcare resources for many decades. These projections can be used for setting goals and evaluating the costs and benefits of interventions in Australia.

In-reach nursing services improve older patient outcomes and access to emergency care

Aims: To identify the impact of in-reach services providing specialist nursing care on outcomes for older people presenting to the emergency department from residential aged care. Methods: Retrospective cohort study compared clinical outcomes of 2278 presentations from 2009 with 2051 presentations from 2011 before and after the implementation of in-reach services. Results: Median emergency department length of stay decreased by 24 minutes (7.0 vs 6.6 hours, P<0.001) and admission rates decreased by 23% (68 vs 45%, P<0.001). The proportion of people with repeat emergency department visits within six months decreased by 12% (27 vs 15%). The proportion of admitted patients who were discharged with an end of life palliative care plan increased by 13% (8 vs 21%, P=0.007). Conclusions: There was a significant reduction in the median length of stay, fewer hospital admissions and fewer repeat visits for people from residential aged care following implementation of in-reach services.

O cidadão está nas ruas : a cidadania republicana em Porto Alegre (1889-1981)

A partir da leitura de jornais portoalegrenses do período de instalação do governo republicano, procura-se identificar quais as práticas e prepresentações articuladas pela população urbana sobre o que seja a identidade do cidadão e o exercício da cidadania. Através de uma ‘descrição densa’ faz-se uma ‘micro história’ das perspectivas de atuação política da população urbana. Percebemos em nossa pesquisa uma intensa movimentação popular em torno do debate político nacional e regional de onde concuímos que estes setores não ficaram apáticos diante da República. Ao contrário, diferentes grupos sociais mobilizam-se para defender suas representações para a identidade do cidadão, ou seja, manifestam uma ‘cidadania informal’. Assim age o PRR ao formula a identidade do ‘cidadão educado’, aquele que, por respeito e subimissão ao partido, vota em seus candidatos e obedece as determinações desses líderes. Já a dissidência republicana articula a identidade do ‘cidadão eleitor’, esse deve ser convencido pela campanha política das propostas por ela defendida. De outro lado entidades dos trabalhadores da cidade evocam a identidade de um ‘cidadão coletivo’ que, como ‘multidão’, expressa seus interesses políticos em diferentes manifestações de rua. Essas entidades ainda formulam a identidade do ‘cidadão candidato’ que se lança na disputa de vagas no Congresso Estadual Constituinte. Contudo a fraude eleitoral promovida pelo PRR expressa a existência apenas daquela primeira identidade. As outras manifestações de cidadania são sumariamente ignoradas e sufocadas pelo partido que entende-se o único representante legítimo da República na cidade. Percebemos, assim, a existência de uma visão autoritária da prática política, contudo, não podemos ignorar a existência e a legitimidade dessas outras representações da cidadania em Porto Alegre.

Dividendos e juros sobre capital próprio : sinalização de lucratividade futura? Estudo no mercado brasileiro 1999/2004

A política de dividendos apresenta-se como um dos pilares decisórios por parte dos gestores de finanças corporativas, juntamente com as políticas de investimento e financiamento. As teorias sobre política de dividendos desenvolveram-se baseadas nas considerações originais de Miller e Modigliani, como também através dos estudos de Lintner e Gordon. Diversos pontos são abordados em vários estudos posteriores, tais como impactos tributários, custos de agência, informações assimétricas e sinalização ao mercado. O tema continua sendo vastamente estudado por diversos pesquisadores, tendo como base dados de diversas partes do mundo, com resultados controversos e pouco consenso sobre os reais efeitos de diferentes políticas de dividendos sobre as empresas e seus acionistas. Tal situação também é verificada no Brasil, onde existe um ponto diferencial a ser considerado: a distribuição dos denominados juros sobre capital próprio; mecanismo adicional para remunerar o acionista, o qual apresenta características tributárias específicas. O presente trabalho analisa um aspecto específico da política de dividendos: sua suposta capacidade de sinalização ao mercado. A premissa é que as distribuições de dividendos e juros sobre capital próprio representam sinalizadores ao mercado quanto à lucratividade futura das empresas, e, portanto, podem ser considerados como instrumentos válidos para os gestores passarem informações sobre as expectativas de desenvolvimento financeiro de suas empresas. Trabalhos realizados no mercado americano chegam a diferentes conclusões quanto a esta premissa, ora corroborando a teoria, ora negando a existência do conteúdo informacional de dividendos. Através de dados de empresas transacionadas na BOVESPA entre 1999 e 2004, o autor conclui que não é possível corroborar a teoria financeira tradicional, sumarizada na premissa mencionada acima. Dada a metodologia utilizada (regressão linear), não é possível confirmar relação relevante entre a variação (aumento ou diminuição) de distribuição de proventos aos acionistas com o aumento ou diminuição de lucros em momentos posteriores. Em suma, a política de dividendos permanece como um dos mais controversos aspectos da gestão de finanças corporativas.

Effect of intensification on grow out of the Amazon River prawn, Macrobrachium amazonicum

The effects of intensification on growth, survival, productivity, population structure, and distribution of harvested biomass in individual size classes of Macrobrachium amazonicum in semi-intensive culture were evaluated. Postlarvae (0.01 g) were stocked in 12 ponds at densities of 10, 20, 40, and 80/m(2) (three replicates per treatment) and raised for 5.5 mo. Average individual weight significantly decreased and productivity significantly increased as stocking density increased (P < 0.001), while survival was not affected (P > 0.05). Prawn mean weight at harvest ranged from 3.6 (80/m(2)) to 7.0 g (10/m(2)). Average survival ranged from 65.5% (40/m(2)) to 72.8% (20/m(2)), while productivity ranged from 508 (10/m(2)) to 2051 kg/ha (80/m(2)). Harvested biomass showed a clear bimodal distribution in individual size classes indicating the occurrence of heterogeneous growth, which may affect management and market strategies. Harvested biomass of prawns weighing more than 7 g (the best market size) increases for stocking densities up to 40/m(2) and stabilizes between 40 and 80/m(2). Growth reduction was associated with a decreasing frequency and average weight of green claw 1 and green claw 2 male morphotypes and adult females as density increased. Thus, the distribution of male morphotypes and sexually mature females are affected by density-dependent factors. Results suggest that prawn density plays an important role on M. amazonicum grow-out phase, as has been demonstrated for other species of the genus Macrobrachium. M. amazonicum tolerates grow-out intensification and may be raised in both semi-intensive and intensive systems stocked at very high densities yielding high productivity.

Parâmetros Genéticos para a Produção de Leite, Gordura e Proteína em Bubalinos

The objective of this study was to estimate the genetic parameters affecting milk production (MP), fat (%F) and protein (%P) contents of buffalo milk. Restricted Maximum Likelihood (REML) using MTDFREML program under animal model analyzed a total of 1744 lactations records from 1268 cows. The means were: MP = 1259.47 +/- 523.09 kg, %F = 6.87 +/- 0.88% and %P = 3.91 +/- 0.61%. The estimates of repeatability and heritability coefficients were: MP = 0.38 and 0.24, %F = 0.28 and 0.21 and %P = 0.30 and 0.26, respectively. The estimated genetic and phenotypic correlations were MP x %F = -0.18 and -0.62, MP x %P = -0.23 and -0.59 and %F x %P = 0.50 and 0.77, respectively. According to these results it is possible to conclude that selection is a proper way to increase milk yield, fat and protein percentage. Although negative low values of genetic correlations among traits, it should be take into account that simultaneous selection based on these traits could not be so efficient.

Biological aspects of the immature stages of Ceraeochrysa everes (Banks) (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae)

Para o estabelecimento de um programa de controle biológico, o conhecimento de alguns aspectos biológicos e de comportamento dos inimigos naturais é de extrema importância. Os aspectos biológicos do desenvolvimento larval e pupal do predador Ceraeochrysa everes (Banks) foram estudados. Larvas oriundas de adultos da geração F1 foram mantidas em laboratório a 25 ± 21°C, 70 ± 10 % UR e fotofase 14 horas, sendo alimentadas com ovos de Sitotroga cerealella (Olivier). A duração e viabilidade do período embrionário, estágios imaturos de desenvolvimento e o período de ovo a adulto foram avaliados. O período embrionário foi em média de 5,0 dias, enquanto que as durações médias para o primeiro, segundo e terceiro instares foram de 5,1 ± 0,03; 4,3 ± 0,05 e 4,5 ± 0,05 dias, respectivamente, com viabilidade superior a 90 %. Os estágios larval, pré-pupal e pupal apresentaram duração média de 13,9 ± 0,07; 5,7 ± 0,07 e 9,6 ± 0,12 dias, respectivamente. A duração do ciclo biológico foi de 34 ± 0,11 dias em média. Ovos de S. cerelella não foram adequados para a manutenção de C. everes em laboratório, por interferir no desenvolvimento do predador.

Ativação das células hepáticas estreladas e fibrose hepática em crianças portadoras de hepatite autoimune tipo 1: estudo imuno-histoquímico de biópsias hepáticas pareadas antes do tratamento e após a remissão clínica

The activation of hepatic stellate cells (HSC) is considered the most important event in hepatic fibrogenesis. The precise mechanism of this process is unknown in autoimmune hepatitis (AIH), and more evidence is needed on the evolution of fibrosis. The aim of this study was to assess these aspects in children with type 1 AIH. We analyzed 16 liver biopsy samples from eight patients, paired before treatment and after clinical remission, performed an immunohistochemical study with anti-actin smooth muscle antibody and graded fibrosisand inflammation on a scale of 0:4 (Batts and Ludwig scoring system). We observedthere was no significant reduction in fibrosis scores after 24± 18 months (2.5 ± 0.93 vs. 2.0± 0.53, P = 0.2012). There was an important decrease in inflammation: portal (2.6 ±0.74 vs. 1.3± 0.89, P = 0.0277), periportal/periseptal (3.0 ±0.76 vs. 1.4 ± 1.06, P = 0.0277), and lobular (2.8 ± 1.04 vs. 0.9± 0.99, P =0.0179). Anti-actin smooth muscle antibodies were expressed in the HSC of the initial biopsies (3491.93 ±2051.48 lm2), showing a significant reduction after remission (377.91 ±439.47 lm2) (P = 0.0117). HSC activation was demonstrated in the AIH of children. The reduction of this activation after clinical remission, which may precede a decrease in fibrosis, opens important perspectives in the follow-up of AIH.