Simple calvo economies with heterogeneous pricing

A motivação para este trabalho vem dos principais resultados de Carvalho e Schwartzman (2008), onde a heterogeneidade surge a partir de diferentes regras de ajuste de preço entre os setores. Os momentos setoriais da duração da rigidez nominal são su cientes para explicar certos efeitos monetários. Uma vez que concordamos que a heterogeneidade é relevante para o estudo da rigidez de preços, como poderíamos escrever um modelo com o menor número possível de setores, embora com um mínimo de heterogeneidade su ciente para produzir qualquer impacto monetário desejado, ou ainda, qualquer três momentos da duração? Para responder a esta questão, este artigo se restringe a estudar modelos com hazard-constante e considera que o efeito acumulado e a dinâmica de curto-prazo da política monetária são boas formas de se resumir grandes economias heterogêneas. Mostramos que dois setores são su cientes para resumir os efeitos acumulados de choques monetários, e economias com 3 setores são boas aproximações para a dinâmica destes efeitos. Exercícios numéricos para a dinâmica de curto prazo de uma economia com rigidez de informação mostram que aproximar 500 setores usando apenas 3 produz erros inferiores a 3%. Ou seja, se um choque monetário reduz o produto em 5%, a economia aproximada produzirá um impacto entre 4,85% e 5,15%. O mesmo vale para a dinâmica produzida por choques de nível de moeda em uma economia com rigidez de preços. Para choques na taxa de crescimento da moeda, a erro máximo por conta da aproximação é de 2,4%.

Essays on international prices and the subjacent market structure

Esta tese utiliza a informação contida em preços internacionais para identificar parâmetros de modelos de comércio sob competição imperfeita, desta forma permitindo inferência sobre o comportamento das exportações, sobre os ganhos de troca da abertura comercial e sobre a variedade de bens produzidos domesticamente. Em primeiro lugar, investigamos o repasse cambial, no longo prazo, para os preços praticados por exportadores brasileiros. O foco no longo prazo permite controlar os efeitos da rigidez de preço no curto prazo, de maneira que o repasse incompleto evidencie competição imperfeita com preços flexíveis. Em segundo lugar, calculamos os ganhos de troca de novas variedades de bens importados baseando-nos em estimativas para as elasticidades de substituição desagregadas. Finalmente, qualificamos a ênfase da literatura de comércio em ganhos de eficiência no lugar de ganhos de variedade, demonstrando que a variedade de bens produzidos domesticamente se amplia após aberturas comerciais desde que as firmas tenham uma margem de decisão em bens intermediários ou na qualificação da mão de obra.

Stochastic growth and monetary policy: the impacts on the term structure of interest rates

This paper builds a simple, empirically-verifiable rational expectations model for term structure of nominal interest rates analysis. It solves an stochastic growth model with investment costs and sticky inflation, susceptible to the intervention of the monetary authority following a policy rule. The model predicts several patterns of the term structure which are in accordance to observed empirical facts: (i) pro-cyclical pattern of the level of nominal interest rates; (ii) countercyclical pattern of the term spread; (iii) pro-cyclical pattern of the curvature of the yield curve; (iv) lower predictability of the slope of the middle of the term structure; and (v) negative correlation of changes in real rates and expected inflation at short horizons.

Essays on price dynamics

Esta tese tem como objetivo principal aproximar a evidencia empirica existente sobre os agregados macroeconomicos com as novas evidencias empiricas baseadas nos micro dados de precos ao consumidor, tendo como base os modelos padroes de rigidez de preco utilizados na literatura de politica monetaria. Para isso, esta tese utiliza a base de dados individuais de precos ao consumidor no Brasil fornecida pela Fundacao Getulio Vargas. Especificamente, esta tese foca em tres temas principais: a existencia de variac˜oes temporararias de precos, a heterogeneidade na rigidez de precos entre firmas de um mesmo setor e o formato das func˜oes hazard. Os resultados mostram que: existe de fato uma correlac˜ao entre as variaveis referentes as mudancas temporararias de precos e os agregados macroeconomicos; a heterogeneidade na rigidez de precos entre firmas de um mesmo setor apresenta efeitos significativos sobre a dinamica dos agregados macroeconomicos; e por fim, o formato mais geral da func˜ao hazard proposta nesta tese possibilita novas dinamicas dos agregados macroeconomicos.

On testing the Phillips curves, the IS Curves, and the interaction between fiscal and monetary policies

Esta tese é composta por três ensaios sobre testes empíricos de curvas de Phillips, curvas IS e a interação entre as políticas fiscal e monetária. O primeiro ensaio ("Curvas de Phillips: um Teste Abrangente") testa curvas de Phillips usando uma especificação autoregressiva de defasagem distribuída (ADL) que abrange a curva de Phillips Aceleracionista (APC), a curva de Phillips Novo Keynesiana (NKPC), a curva de Phillips Híbrida (HPC) e a curva de Phillips de Informação Rígida (SIPC). Utilizamos dados dos Estados Unidos (1985Q1--2007Q4) e do Brasil (1996Q1--2012Q2), usando o hiato do produto e alternativamente o custo marginal real como medida de pressão inflacionária. A evidência empírica rejeita as restrições decorrentes da NKPC, da HPC e da SIPC, mas não rejeita aquelas da APC. O segundo ensaio ("Curvas IS: um Teste Abrangente") testa curvas IS usando uma especificação ADL que abrange a curva IS Keynesiana tradicional (KISC), a curva IS Novo Keynesiana (NKISC) e a curva IS Híbrida (HISC). Utilizamos dados dos Estados Unidos (1985Q1--2007Q4) e do Brasil (1996Q1--2012Q2). A evidência empírica rejeita as restrições decorrentes da NKISC e da HISC, mas não rejeita aquelas da KISC. O terceiro ensaio ("Os Efeitos da Política Fiscal e suas Interações com a Política Monetária") analisa os efeitos de choques na política fiscal sobre a dinâmica da economia e a interação entre as políticas fiscal e monetária usando modelos SVARs. Testamos a Teoria Fiscal do Nível de Preços para o Brasil analisando a resposta do passivo do setor público a choques no superávit primário. Para a identificação híbrida, encontramos que não é possível distinguir empiricamente entre os regimes Ricardiano (Dominância Monetária) e não-Ricardiano (Dominância Fiscal). Entretanto, utilizando a identificação de restrições de sinais, existe evidência que o governo seguiu um regime Ricardiano (Dominância Monetária) de janeiro de 2000 a junho de 2008.

The role of consumer's risk aversion on price rigidity

This paper aims at contributing to the research agenda on the sources of price stickiness, showing that the adoption of nominal price rigidity may be an optimal firms' reaction to the consumers' behavior, even if firms have no adjustment costs. With regular broadly accepted assumptions on economic agents behavior, we show that firms' competition can lead to the adoption of sticky prices as an (sub-game perfect) equilibrium strategy. We introduce the concept of a consumption centers model economy in which there are several complete markets. Moreover, we weaken some traditional assumptions used in standard monetary policy models, by assuming that households have imperfect information about the ineflicient time-varying cost shocks faced by the firms, e.g. the ones regarding to inefficient equilibrium output leveIs under fiexible prices. Moreover, the timing of events are assumed in such a way that, at every period, consumers have access to the actual prices prevailing in the market only after choosing a particular consumption center. Since such choices under uncertainty may decrease the expected utilities of risk averse consumers, competitive firms adopt some degree of price stickiness in order to minimize the price uncertainty and fi attract more customers fi.'

Inflation persistence and flexible prices

The inability of rational expectation models with money supply rules to deliver inflation persistence following a transitory deviation of money growth from trend is due to the rapid adjustment of the price level to expected events. The observation of persistent inflation in macroeconomic data leads many economists to believe that prices adjust sluggishly and/or expectations must not be rational. Inflation persistence in U.S. data can be characterized by a vector autocorrelation function relating inflation and deviations of output from trend. In the vector autocorrelation function both inflation and output are highly persistent and there are significant positive dynamic cross-correlations relating inflation and output. This paper shows that a flexible-price general equilibrium business cycle model with money and a central bank using a Taylor rule can account for these patterns. There are no sticky prices and no liquidity effects. Agents decisions in a period are taken only after all shocks are observed. The monetary policy rule transforms output persistence into inflation persistence and creates positive cross-correlations between inflation and output.

Imaginary money

This paper considers price setting in pure units of account, linked to the means of payment through managed parities. If prices are sticky in the units in which they are set, parity changes may facilitate equilibrium adjustment of relative prices. The paper derives simultaneously the optimal choice of unit of account by each price setter, and the optimal parity policy. The gains from having multiple units of account are computed for a simple calibrated economy.

Inattention in individual expectations

This paper investigates the expectations formation process of economic agents about inflation rate. Using the Market Expectations System of Central Bank of Brazil, we perceive that agents do not update their forecasts every period and that even agents who update disagree in their predictions. We then focus on the two most popular types of inattention models that have been discussed in the recent literature: sticky-information and noisy-information models. Estimating a hybrid model we find that, although formally fitting the Brazilian data, it happens at the cost of a much higher degree of information rigidity than observed.

Inattention in Individual Expectations

This paper investigates the expectations formation process of economic agents about infl ation rate. Using the Market Expectations System of Central Bank of Brazil, we perceive that agents do not update their forecasts every period and that even agents who update disagree in their predictions. We then focus on the two most popular types of inattention models that have been discussed in the recent literature: sticky-information and noisy-information models. Estimating a hybrid model we fi nd that, although formally fi tting the Brazilian data, it happens at the cost of a much higher degree of information rigidity than observed.

Análise bioclimática do bairro do Renascença II São Luis-MA: realidade e perspectiva do conforto térmico em espaços externos

The present research concerns about outdoor s thermal comfort conditions in hot-humid climate cities, understanding that life quality is a result of the urban object s type built for the human being in an environment with specific climate and morphological characteristics. It is presented as object of study the correlation between the neighborhood Renascença II s microclimate in São Luis /MA-Brazil, hot-humid climate city, and its urban morphological changes. As well as the thermal comfort s satisfaction level of its outdoor users. The research has as general goal to diagnosis the way these transformations caused by the urbanization influence the Renascença II s microclimate, identifying critical spots of the studied area, in order to contribute with land use recommendations based on bioclimatic architecture concepts and supply bases to urban design decisions adequate to the São Luis climate. It is presented as theoretical bases the urban climate, its concepts and elements. After that, the thermal comfort conditioners and its prediction models of thermal comfort sensation in outdoor are presented. The predictive models are presented along with bioclimatic assessment methods. Finally the use of bioclimatic assessment as an effective tool to identify places that need changes or preservation in order to seek environment quality. The applied methodology was based on the studies of Katzschner (1997), complemented by Oliveira s (1988) and Bustos Romero s (2001) studies that suggest an analysis and evaluation of maps of topography, buildings floors, land use, green areas and land covering, in order to overlap their characteristics and identify climate variable s measurements points; then a quantitative analysis of the climate variables (air temperature and humidity, wind speed and direction) of the chosen points takes place. It was perceived that Renaissance II has no permanence areas as squares or parks, its outdoor has little vegetation and presets high land impermeability and built density levels. The majority of the people interviewed said that was comfortable in a range of air temperature between 27,28ºC and 30,71ºC. The elaboration of a neighborhood master plan is important, which defines strategies for improvement of the life quality of its inhabitants

Indicações para o projeto arquitetônico de edifícios multifamiliares: uma análise pósocupação em Natal/RN

Confirming the Brazilian tendency in the field, the multifamily vertical condominium habitats in Natal are defined as buildings with three or more floors which have been an increasingly used solution. In the mentioned project, the connection between the projectarchitects and the user/ buyers are spread out, by which the first people conceive the realestate property as a creation for the market and not the individual client in specific. Such situation along with technical and financial limitations of the project lead to the adoption of standard solutions to be utilized by clients with different profiles. Besides that, there are various legal and urban parameters by the City Director Plan showing elements of great influence in the final solution adopted by the mentioned edifices. Moving to this subject in general, this project is focused on the case study of the Ed. Ville de Montpellier, having as a base of Post Occupancy Evaluation (POE), considered an efficient tool to analyze and keep up with the progress of the construction of the building, including technical approvals, the application of surveys with the local residents and the creation of informal interviews. The data shows that with time some items that initially motivated the acquisition of the realestate property (with a social common area) move to being less valued, and that the residents quickly alter the pre constructed space, thus seeking to alter the property in a more personal and conforming manner. The possibility of a new emphasis for projects on the mentioned space should also be in discussion, the created project calls for the attention of projected conceptual aspects and interdependence within project and construction which permits the indication of some recommendations for the projection of multifamily residential buildings within the studied realm

Estudo do comportamento plástico, mecânico, microestrutural e térmico do concreto produzido com resíduo de porcelanato

Population growth experienced in major cities, allied to society s need of infra-structure, especially ones related to habitational demands, increases the consumption of construction materials. As a consequence, consumption of natural resources itself. Thus, due to this process, concrete is one of the most produced materials in civil construction. This is also due to the great diversity of its application, easiness in its execution and adequate mechanical performance, as well as low production costs. Following the same tendencies in construction development, the ceramic industry has intensified the production of porcelain ceramic tiles and floors. These are achieved by a fine finishing and receive polishing at the end of the fabrication process. This work researched the use of porcelain residues in polishing for the production of concrete. All of which; due to economical and environmental issues. This process aims to prove adequate destiny for this type of residue, due to environmental issues, incorporating it to the concrete itself; all of which provides economy in consumption of the materials that constitute concrete. Thus, the main characteristics of concrete were investigated through the inclusion of different concentration of the porcelain residue as additional trait element. The residue rates incorporated to the trait varied from 10% to 50% in relation to the cement mass, in the traits with plastic additives and without plastic additives. It is observed that the inclusion of porcelain residue produced a meaningful alteration in the consistency of fresh concrete. This residue has a fine granulometry and it considerably absorbed the water used in the concrete spreading, influencing the way this material is dealt with. Thus, the value of cement striking decreases with the increase of residues present in trait. The maximal incorporation of the residue was of 50%, massively, for the same factor water/initial cement. The use of residues in concrete results in an 40% increase in the compression resistance. It is also proportional to residue concentration of porcelain in the trait. The microstructure was also favored once porosity and concrete absorption decreases with the use of this residue. The parameters demonstrate the quality and durability of the concrete produced with this residue. The use of porcelain residue in concrete composition has not produced meaningful thermal behavior changes. Thermal conductivity, heat capacity and thermal diffusivity have been maintained basically constant

Uso de resíduo e de minerais de pegmatito da região do seridó RN e de argilas portuguesas em formulações de grês porcelanato

In the State Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, the most significant deposits of minerals in the production of granite and pegmatite are Seridó region. Municipalities of Parelhas and Equador are the main responsible for the production of feldspar, quartz, kaolin and granite. The ceramic industries are always in search of competitiveness by investing in new products or improving existing techniques. The stoneware is a type of pottery that stands in the market because it presents technical and aesthetic characteristics superior to other existing products. Characteristics of the raw materials initially obtained with chemical analysis and mineralogical analysis are crucial in getting a product that satisfies the conditions in a manufacturing process and is, in principle, directly related to the firing cycle. This research aimed at developing new formulations for the mass production of ceramic stoneware. The raw materials initially characterized were feldspar, quartz, kaolin and granite. As part of the research was developed at the University of Aveiro, in Portugal, we used two clays used in the production of Portuguese ceramics. The raw material Brazilian and Portuguese and the final product, both in Portugal and Brazil, were analyzed for X-ray fluorescence, X-ray diffraction, granulometric analysis, dilatometric analysis, thermal analysis and analysis of scanning electron microscopy (MEV). The specimens prepared at the University of Aveiro (DECV) were sintered at 10000C and 12000C and the specimens prepared in UFRN were sintered at 10000C, 10500C, 11000C, 11500C, 12000C, 12500C and 13000C, but the best results and demonstrating the presence of the mineral mullite were at temperatures of 12000C, 12500C and 13000C. The results showed that the granite waste used may be considered raw material of excellent quality for use in the ceramic industry and coating floors and more accurately by the industry of stoneware. Physical and mechanical tests conducted on samples of the formulations F01 and F02 developed in UFRN showed a water absorption and mechanical strength suitable for the stoneware

Avaliação do efeito da adição de resíduo de borracha de pneu e brita calcária na formulação de compósitos cimentíceos

Researches have shown that the introduction of rubber in concrete improves the features of its deformability, as well as contributes to environmental disposal of waste generated in the tire retreading process. Furthermore, there is a high availability of limestone within RN and CE country. Ignorance about this stone, does not allow its wide use as aggregate, leaving, this abundant supply idle. A composite of limestone gravel, with proportions of tire rubber waste which could be used as concrete would be an alternative to concrete for low applications. Therefore, this research aims to evaluate the characteristics of concrete containing limestone gravel and proportions of little aggregate replacement (sand) by tire rubber waste. To this goal, the material components of the concrete were characterized, concrete specimens with limestone gravel were made, from the dash 1.0: 2.5: 3.5, varying the water/cement ratio, and inserting a commercial plasticizer, without a proportion of residue, known as reference. From this, concrete with and without the presence of the additive in the same proportions were chosen, as well as these with the use of granite gravel, for being the most used. Selected the references, to these, replacements of little aggregate (sand) were added replaced by rubber waste from the tire retreading process, treated with 1M NaOH in proportions from 5.0 to 20.0 % by mass, cured and exposed to the semiarid environment. The results indicate the possibility of using limestone gravel in the concrete composition with workability correction using plasticizer. There was a decrease in the mechanical properties of the concrete with increments of waste rubber, but there is an improvement in toughness and deformability of the composite, which makes it interesting for the construction of non-structural concrete floors, as well as, the rubber waste delayed the hardening process, continuing to gain resistance after 28 days