RESILIENCE OF NETWORKED INFRASTRUCTURE WITH EVOLVING COMPONENT CONDITIONS: A PAVEMENT NETWORK APPLICATION

This thesis deals with quantifying the resilience of a network of pavements. Calculations were carried out by modeling network performance under a set of possible damage-meteorological scenarios with known probability of occurrence. Resilience evaluation was performed a priori while accounting for optimal preparedness decisions and additional response actions that can be taken under each of the scenarios. Unlike the common assumption that the pre-event condition of all system components is uniform, fixed, and pristine, component condition evolution was incorporated herein. For this purpose, the health of the individual system components immediately prior to hazard event impact, under all considered scenarios, was associated with a serviceability rating. This rating was projected to reflect both natural deterioration and any intermittent improvements due to maintenance. The scheme was demonstrated for a hypothetical case study involving Laguardia Airport. Results show that resilience can be impacted by the condition of the infrastructure elements, their natural deterioration processes, and prevailing maintenance plans. The findings imply that, in general, upper bound values are reported in ordinary resilience work, and that including evolving component conditions is of value.

Euclidean Distance Between Haar Orthogonal and Gaussian Matrices

In this work, we study a version of the general question of how well a Haar-distributed orthogonal matrix can be approximated by a random Gaussian matrix. Here, we consider a Gaussian random matrix (Formula presented.) of order n and apply to it the Gram–Schmidt orthonormalization procedure by columns to obtain a Haar-distributed orthogonal matrix (Formula presented.). If (Formula presented.) denotes the vector formed by the first m-coordinates of the ith row of (Formula presented.) and (Formula presented.), our main result shows that the Euclidean norm of (Formula presented.) converges exponentially fast to (Formula presented.), up to negligible terms. To show the extent of this result, we use it to study the convergence of the supremum norm (Formula presented.) and we find a coupling that improves by a factor (Formula presented.) the recently proved best known upper bound on (Formula presented.). Our main result also has applications in Quantum Information Theory.

Efficient algorithms for beacon routing in polygons

In a paper by Biro et al. [7], a novel twist on guarding in art galleries is introduced. A beacon is a fixed point with an attraction pull that can move points within the polygon. Points move greedily to monotonically decrease their Euclidean distance to the beacon by moving straight towards the beacon or sliding on the edges of the polygon. The beacon attracts a point if the point eventually reaches the beacon. Unlike most variations of the art gallery problem, the beacon attraction has the intriguing property of being asymmetric, leading to separate definitions of attraction region and inverse attraction region. The attraction region of a beacon is the set of points that it attracts. For a given point in the polygon, the inverse attraction region is the set of beacon locations that can attract the point. We first study the characteristics of beacon attraction. We consider the quality of a "successful" beacon attraction and provide an upper bound of $\sqrt{2}$ on the ratio between the length of the beacon trajectory and the length of the geodesic distance in a simple polygon. In addition, we provide an example of a polygon with holes in which this ratio is unbounded. Next we consider the problem of computing the shortest beacon watchtower in a polygonal terrain and present an $O(n \log n)$ time algorithm to solve this problem. In doing this, we introduce $O(n \log n)$ time algorithms to compute the beacon kernel and the inverse beacon kernel in a monotone polygon. We also prove that $\Omega(n \log n)$ time is a lower bound for computing the beacon kernel of a monotone polygon. Finally, we study the inverse attraction region of a point in a simple polygon. We present algorithms to efficiently compute the inverse attraction region of a point for simple, monotone, and terrain polygons with respective time complexities $O(n^2)$, $O(n \log n)$ and $O(n)$. We show that the inverse attraction region of a point in a simple polygon has linear complexity and the problem of computing the inverse attraction region has a lower bound of $\Omega(n \log n)$ in monotone polygons and consequently in simple polygons.

The impact and control of malignant catarrhal fever in Tanzania

Malignant Catarrhal Fever (MCF), an often-lethal infectious disease, presents as a variable complex of lesions in susceptible ungulate species. The disease is caused by a -herpesvirus following transmission from an inapparent carrier host. Two major epidemiological forms exist: wildebeest-associated MCF (WA-MCF), in which the virus is transmitted to susceptible species by wildebeest calves less than approximately four months of age, and sheepassociated MCF (SA-MCF) in which the virus is spread by sheep (primarily adolescents). Due to the lack of an in-vitro propagation system for the causative agent of the more economically significant SA-MCF, and with the expectation that cross-protective immunity may be provided, vaccine development has focused on the more easily propagated alcelaphine herpesvirus-1 (AlHV-1) that causes WA-MCF. In 2008 a direct viral challenge trial showed that a novel vaccine, employing an attenuated AlHV-1 (atAlHV-1) `C5000 virus strain, protected British Friesian-Holstein (FH) cattle against an intranasal challenge with virulent AlHV-1 `C5000 virus. For cattle keeping people living near wildebeest calving areas in sub-Saharan Africa an effective vaccine would have value as it would release them from the costly annual disease avoidance strategy of having to move their herds away from the oncoming wildebeest. On the other hand, an effective vaccine will release herd owners from the need to avoid MCF, allowing them to graze their cattle alongside wildebeest on the highly nutritious pastures of the calving areas. As such conservationists have raised concerns that the development of a vaccine might lead to detrimental grazing competition. The principle objective of this study was to test the novel vaccine on Tanzanian shorthorn zebu cross cattle (SZC).We did this firstly using a natural challenge field trial (Chapter Two) which demonstrated that immunisation with the atAlHV-1 vaccine was well tolerated and induced an oro-nasopharyngeal AlHV-1-specific and -neutralising antibody response. This resulted in an immunity in SZC cattle that was partially protective and reduced naturally transmitted infection by 56%. We also demonstrated that non-fatal infections occurred with a much higher frequency than previously thought. Because the calculated efficacy of the vaccine was less than that seen in British FH cattle we wanted to determine whether host factors, particular to SZC cattle, had impacted the outcomes of the field trial. To do this we repeated the 2008 direct viral challenge trial using SZC cattle (Chapter Four). During this trial we also investigated whether the recombinant bacterial flagellin monomer (FliC), when used as an adjuvant, might improve the vaccine’s efficacy. The findings from this trial indicated that direct challenge with pathogenic AlHV-1 is effective at inducing MCF in SZC cattle and that FliC is not an appropriate adjuvant for this vaccine. Furthermore, with less control group cattle dying of MCF than expected we speculate that SZC cattle may have a degree of resistance to MCF that affords them protection from infection and developing fatal disease. In Chapter Three we investigated aspects of the epidemiology of MCF, specifically whether wildebeest placenta, long implicated by Maasai cattle owners as a source of MCF, might play a role in viral transmission. Additionally, through comparative sequence analysis, at two specific genes (A9.5 and ORF50) of wild-type and atAlHV-1, we investigated whether the `C5000 strain, the source of which was taken from Africa more than 40 years ago, was appropriate for vaccine development. The detection of AlHV-1 virus in approximately 50% of placentae indicated that infection can occur in-utero and that this tissue might play a role in disease transmission. And, despite describing three new alleles of the A9.5 gene (supporting previous evidence that this gene is polymorphic and encodes a secretory protein with interleukin-4 as the major homologue), the observation that the most frequently detected haplotypes, in both wild-type and attenuated AlHV-1, were identical suggests that AlHV-1 has a slow molecular clock and that the attenuated strain was appropriate for vaccine development. In Chapter Five we present the first quantitative assessment of the annual MCF avoidance costs that Maasai pastoralists incur. In particular we estimated that as a result of MCF avoidance 64% of the total daily milk yield during the MCF season was not available to be used by the 81% of the family unit remaining at the permanent boma. This represents an upper-bound loss of approximately 8% of a household0s annual income. Despite these considerable losses we concluded that, given an incidence of fatal MCF in cattle living in wildebeest calving areas of 5% to 10%, if herd owners were to stop trying to avoid MCF by allowing their cattle to graze alongside wildebeest, any gains made through increased availability of milk, improved body condition and reduced energy demands would be offset by an increase in MCF-incidence. With the development of an effective vaccine, however, this alternative strategy might become optimal. The overall conclusion we draw therefore is that, despite the substantial costs incurred each year avoiding MCF, the partial protection afforded by the novel vaccine strategy is not sufficient to warrant a wholesale change in disease avoidance strategy. Nonetheless, even the partial protection provided by this vaccine could be of value to protect animals that cannot be moved, for example where some of the herd remain at the boma to provide milk or where land-use changes make traditional disease avoidance difficult. Furthermore, the vaccine may offer a feasible solution to some of the current land-use challenges and conflicts, providing a degree of protection to valuable livestock where avoidance strategies are not possible, but with less risk of precipitating the potentially damaging environmental consequences, such as overgrazing of highly nutritious seasonal pastures, that might result if herd owners decide they no longer need to avoid wildebeest.

Synthesis, Modification and Characterization of Polymeric Membranes for CO2 Separation

This doctorate focused on the development of dense polymeric membranes for carbon capture, mostly in post combustion applications, and for natural gas sweetening. The work was supported by the European Project NANOMEMC2 funded under H2020 program. Different materials have been investigated, that rely on two main transport mechanisms: the solution-diffusion and the facilitated transport. In both cases, proper nano-fillers have been added to the matrix, in order to boost the mechanical and permselective properties of the membranes. Facilitated transport membranes were based on the use of was polyvinylamine (PVAm), as main matrix with fixed-site carriers, and L-Arginine as mobile carrier; the filler, used mostly as reinforcer, was carboxymethylated nanocellulose (cNFC). Humid test showed interesting results, and especially the blend made of PVAm/cNFC/Arg in weight ratio 27,5/27,5/45 crossed the Robeson CO2/N2 upper bound, representing current state of the art membranes, with a CO2 permeability of 271 Barrer and CO2/N2 selectivity of 70. Solution diffusion membranes were based on Pebax®2533 matrix which was added with three different graphene oxide (GO)-based materials, namely pristine GO, Porous Graphene Oxide (PGO) and a GO functionalized with polyetheramine (PEAGO). All of them provided a modest but clear increment of permeability of the Pebax matrix, from plus 2% (GO) to plus 8% (PGO), with no change in selectivity. The gas tested with this type of composites were CO2 and N2, for Post combustion capture applications. Pebax®2533 was also chemically modified, obtaining the product called “Benzoyl-P2533”, that was fully characterized, and tested in term of permeation using five gas: CO2, N2, CH4, O2, and He. Modified material showed an increment of the overall permeability of the material of a fair 10% for all gases tested, apart from helium, that increased of almost 50%.

Sviluppo di Metodi di Soft Labeling per la Multi-Document Summarization in Ambito Legale

In questo elaborato viene trattata l’analisi del problema di soft labeling applicato alla multi-document summarization, in particolare vengono testate varie tecniche per estrarre frasi rilevanti dai documenti presi in dettaglio, al fine di fornire al modello di summarization quelle di maggior rilievo e più informative per il riassunto da generare. Questo problema nasce per far fronte ai limiti che presentano i modelli di summarization attualmente a disposizione, che possono processare un numero limitato di frasi; sorge quindi la necessità di filtrare le informazioni più rilevanti quando il lavoro si applica a documenti lunghi. Al fine di scandire la metrica di importanza, vengono presi come riferimento metodi sintattici, semantici e basati su rappresentazione a grafi AMR. Il dataset preso come riferimento è Multi-LexSum, che include tre granularità di summarization di testi legali. L’analisi in questione si compone quindi della fase di estrazione delle frasi dai documenti, della misurazione delle metriche stabilite e del passaggio al modello stato dell’arte PRIMERA per l’elaborazione del riassunto. Il testo ottenuto viene poi confrontato con il riassunto target già fornito, considerato come ottimale; lavorando in queste condizioni l’obiettivo è di definire soglie ottimali di upper-bound per l’accuratezza delle metriche, che potrebbero ampliare il lavoro ad analisi più dettagliate qualora queste superino lo stato dell’arte attuale.

Downscaling and Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

The Upper Blue Nile River Basin (UBNRB) located in the western part of Ethiopia, between 7° 45’ and 12° 45’N and 34° 05’ and 39° 45’E has a total area of 174962 km2 . More than 80% of the population in the basin is engaged in agricultural activities. Because of the particularly dry climate in the basin, likewise to most other regions of Ethiopia, the agricultural productivity depends to a very large extent on the occurrence of the seasonal rains. This situation makes agriculture highly vulnerable to the impact of potential climate hazards which are about to inflict Africa as a whole and Ethiopia in particular. To analyze these possible impacts of future climate change on the water resources in the UBNRB, in the first part of the thesis climate projection for precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures in the basin, using downscaled predictors from three GCMs (ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3) under SRES scenarios A1B and A2 have been carried out. The two statistical downscaling models used are SDSM and LARS-WG, whereby SDSM is used to downscale ECHAM5-predictors alone and LARS-WG is applied in both mono-model mode with predictors from ECHAM5 and in multi-model mode with combined predictors from ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3. For the calibration/validation of the downscaled models, observed as well as NCEP climate data in the 1970 - 2000 reference period is used. The future projections are made for two time periods; 2046-2065 (2050s) and 2081-2100 (2090s). For the 2050s future time period the downscaled climate predictions indicate rise of 0.6°C to 2.7°C for the seasonal maximum temperatures Tmax, and of 0.5°C to 2.44°C for the minimum temperatures Tmin. Similarly, during the 2090s the seasonal Tmax increases by 0.9°C to 4.63°C and Tmin by 1°C to 4.6°C, whereby these increases are generally higher for the A2 than for the A1B scenario. For most sub-basins of the UBNRB, the predicted changes of Tmin are larger than those of Tmax. Meanwhile, for the precipitation, both downscaling tools predict large changes which, depending on the GCM employed, are such that the spring and summer seasons will be experiencing decreases between -36% to 1% and the autumn and winter seasons an increase of -8% to 126% for the two future time periods, regardless of the SRES scenario used. In the second part of the thesis the semi-distributed, physically based hydrologic model, SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool), is used to evaluate the impacts of the above-predicted future climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the UBNRB. Hereby the downscaled future predictors are used as input in the SWAT model to predict streamflow of the Upper Blue Nile as well as other relevant water resources parameter in the basin. Calibration and validation of the streamflow model is done again on 1970-2000 measured discharge at the outlet gage station Eldiem, whereby the most sensitive out the numerous “tuneable” calibration parameters in SWAT have been selected by means of a sophisticated sensitivity analysis. Consequently, a good calibration/validation model performance with a high NSE-coefficient of 0.89 is obtained. The results of the future simulations of streamflow in the basin, using both SDSM- and LARS-WG downscaled output in SWAT reveal a decline of -10% to -61% of the future Blue Nile streamflow, And, expectedly, these obviously adverse effects on the future UBNRB-water availibiliy are more exacerbated for the 2090’s than for the 2050’s, regardless of the SRES.

Effects of forest management and time on herbaceous species dynamics in the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan

The herbaceous layer is a dynamic layer in a forest ecosystem which often contains the highest species richness in northern temperate forests. Few long-term studies exist in northern hardwood forests with consistent management practices to observe herbaceous species dynamics. The Ford Forest (Michigan Technological University) reached its 50th year of management during the winter of 2008-2009. Herbaceous species were sampled during the summers pre- and post-harvest. Distinct herbaceous communities developed in the 13-cm diameter-limit treatment and the uncut control. After the harvest, the diameter-limit treatments had herbaceous communities more similar to the 13-cm diameter-limit treatment than the uncut control; the herbaceous layer contained more exotic and early successional species. Fifty years of continuous management changed the herbaceous community especially in the diameter-limit treatments. Sites used in the development of habitat classification systems based on the presence and absence of certain herbaceous species can also be used to monitor vegetation change over time. The Guide to Forest Communities and Habitat Types of Michigan was developed to aid forest managers in understanding the potential productivity of a stand, and often aid in the development of ecologically-based forest management practices. Subsets of plots used to create the Western Upper Peninsula Guide were resampled after 10 years. During the resampling, both spring and summer vegetation were sampled and earthworm populations were estimated through liquid extraction. Spring sampling observed important spring ephemerals missed during summer sampling. More exotic species were present during the summer 2010 sampling than the summer 2000 sampling. Invasive European earthworms were also observed at all sample locations in all habitat types; earthworm densities increased with increasing habitat richness. To ensure the accuracy of the guide book, plots should be monitored to see how herbaceous communities are changing. These plots also offer unique opportunities to monitor for invasive species and the effects of a changing climate.

Age models of upper Pliocene samples of the North Atlantic

Abundance variations of six Pliocene species of discoasters have been analyzed over the time interval from 1.89 to 2.95 Ma at five contrasting sites in the North Atlantic: Deep Sea Drilling Project Sites 552 (56°N) and 607 (41°N) and Ocean Drilling Program 658 (20°N), 659 (18°N), and 662 (1°S). A sampling interval equivalent to approximately 3 k.y. was used. Total Discoaster abundance showed a reduction with increasing latitude and from the effects of upwelling. This phenomenon is most obvious in Discoaster brouweri, the only species that survived over the entire time interval studied. Prior to 2.38 Ma, Discoaster pentaradiatus and Discoaster surculus are important components of the Discoaster assemblage: Discoaster pentaradiatus increases slightly with latitude up to 41°N, and its abundance relative to D. brouweri increases up to 56°N; D. surculus increases in abundance with latitude and with upwelling conditions relative to both D. brouweri and D. pentaradiatus and is dominant to the latter species at upwelling Site 658 and at the highest latitude sites. Discoaster asymmetricus and Discoaster tamalis appear to increase in abundance with latitude relative to D. brouweri. Many of the abundance changes observed appear to be connected with the initiation of glaciation in the North Atlantic at 2.4 Ma. The long-term trend of decreasing Discoaster abundance probably reflects the fall of sea-surface temperatures. This trend of cooling is overprinted by short-term variations that are probably associated with orbital forcing. Evidence for the astronomical elements of eccentricity and obliquity periodicities were found at all sites; however, only at Sites 607, 659, and 662 were precessional periodicities detected. Furthermore, only at Site 659 was precession found to be dominant to obliquity. Abundance peaks of individual species were found to cross-correlate between sites. The distinct abundance fluctuations observed especially in the tropics suggest that temperature is not the only factor responsible for this variation. This study reveals for the first time the importance of productivity pressure on the suppression of Discoaster abundance.

Assessing the effects of early silvicultural management on long-term site productivity of fast-growing eucalypt plantations: the Brazilian experience

Eucalyptus is the dominant and most productive planted forest in Brazil, covering around 3.4 million ha for the production of charcoal, pulp, sawtimber, timber plates, wood foils, plywood and for building purposes. At the early establishment of the forest plantations, during the second half of the 1960s, the eucalypt yield was 10 m(3) ha(-1) y(-1). Now, as a result of investments in research and technology, the average productivity is 38 m3 ha(-1) y(-1). The productivity restrictions are related to the following environmental factors, in order of importance: water deficits > nutrient deficiency > soil depth and strength. The clonal forests have been fundamental in sites with larger water and nutrient restrictions, where they out-perform those established from traditional seed-based planting stock. When the environmental limitations are small the productivities of plantations based on clones or seeds appear to be similar. In the long term there are risks to sustainability, because of the low fertility and low reserves of primary minerals in the soils, which are, commonly, loamy and clayey oxisols and ultisols. Usually, a decline of soil quality is caused by management that does not conserve soil and site resources, damages soil physical and chemical characteristics, and insufficient or unbalanced fertiliser management. The problem is more serious when fast-growing genotypes are planted, which have a high nutrient demand and uptake capacity, and therefore high nutrient output through harvesting. The need to mobilise less soil by providing more cover and protection, reduce the nutrient and organic matter losses, preserve crucial physical properties as permeability ( root growth, infiltration and aeration), improve weed control and reduce costs has led to a progressive increase in the use of minimum cultivation practices during the last 20 years, which has been accepted as a good alternative to keep or increase site quality in the long term. In this paper we provide a synthesis and critical appraisal of the research results and practical implications of early silvicultural management on long-term site productivity of fast-growing eucalypt plantations arising from the Brazilian context.

Long-term effects of pharyngeal flaps on the upper airways of subjects with velopharyngeal insufficiency

Objectives: To investigate the long-term effects of pharyngeal flap surgery (PFS) on nasal and nasopharyngeal dimensions of patients with velopharyngeal insufficiency (VPI) and to correlate the findings with the onset of respiratory complaints after surgery. Design/Participants: Prospective study in 58 nonsyndromic patients with repaired cleft palate and VPI, evaluated 2 days before and 5 months (POST1) and 1 year (POST2) after PFS, on average. Patients were divided into two groups: one consisting of patients with postoperative respiratory complaints (RC group) and the other without complaints (NRC group). Interventions: Superiorly based PFS. Main Outcome Measures: Respiratory complaints (self reports of mouth breathing, snoring, and other sleep obstructive events) assessed at POST1 and POST2, and minimum nasal (NCSA) and nasopharyngeal (NPA) cross-sectional areas assessed by rhinomanometry at POST2. Results: Respiratory complaints were reported by 55% and 36% of the patients evaluated at POST1 and POST2, respectively. Posterior rhinomanometry showed a significant postoperative reduction of mean NCSA in the RC and NRC groups (p < .05), to subnormal levels in some of them. The decrease was more pronounced in the RC group. No significant changes in NCSA were observed by anterior rhinomanometry. Similar results were obtained when NPA was assessed by modified anterior rhinomanometry. Conclusion: In the long-term, PFS yielded a significant reduction in upper airways dimensions beyond what should be expected and associated with persistent respiratory complaints in some cases.

Availability of folate bound to folate-binding protein: Environmental effects

The effect of FBP on folate bio-availability depends on its environment. The FBP of whole WPC enhances bioavailability of folates more than does purified FBP and its efficacy might be even greater when lipids are removed from the WPC. FBP polymerises and folate release from the polymer is found to be slower than that from the monomer. FBP has a role also as a folate receptor at cell surfaces and in this role folate binding increases polymerisation of FBP attached to lipid membranes.

Phasic modulation of corticomotor excitability during passive movement of the upper limb: effects of movement frequency and muscle specificity

Modulations in the excitability of spinal reflex pathways during passive rhythmic movements of the lower limb have been demonstrated by a number of previous studies [4]. Less emphasis has been placed on the role of supraspinal pathways during passive movement, and on tasks involving the upper limb. In the present study, transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) was delivered to subjects while undergoing passive flexion-extension movements of the contralateral wrist. Motor evoked potentials (MEPs) of flexor carpi radialis (FCR) and abductor pollicus brevis (APB) muscles were recorded. Stimuli were delivered in eight phases of the movement cycle during three different frequencies of movement. Evidence of marked modulations in pathway excitability was found in the MEP amplitudes of the FCR muscle, with responses inhibited and facilitated from static values in the extension and flexion phases, respectively. The results indicated that at higher frequencies of movement there was greater modulation in pathway excitability. Paired-pulse TMS (sub-threshold conditioning) at short interstimulus intervals revealed modulations in the extent of inhibition in MEP amplitude at high movement frequencies. In the APE muscle, there was some evidence of phasic modulations of response amplitude, although the effects were less marked than those observed in FCR. It is speculated that these modulatory effects are mediated via Ia afferent pathways and arise as a consequence of the induced forearm muscle shortening and lengthening. Although the level at which this input influences the corticomotoneuronal pathway is difficult to discern, a contribution from cortical regions is suggested. (C) 2001 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

The effects of stress management on symptoms of upper respiratory tract infection, secretory immunoglobulin A, and mood in young adults

Objective: To investigate the efficacy of a stress management programme on symptoms of colds and influenza in 27 university students before and after the examination period. Method: The incidence of symptoms, levels of negative affect, and secretion rate of secretory immunoglobulin A (sIgA) were recorded for 5 weeks before treatment, for the 4 weeks of treatment, and for 8 weeks after treatment in treated subjects and in 25 others who did not participate in stress management. Results: Symptoms decreased in treated subjects but not in controls during and after the examination period. Although sIgA secretion rate increased significantly after individual sessions of relaxation, resting secretion rate of sIgA did not increase over the course of the study. Negative affect decreased after examinations in both groups, but was not affected by treatment. Conclusion: Stress management reduced days of illness independently of negative affect and sIgA secretion rate. Although the component of treatment responsible for this effect has yet to be identified, psychological interventions may have a role in reducing symptoms of upper respiratory tract infection. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.