Fuzzy State Real-Time Reservoir Operation Model for Irrigation with Gridded Rainfall Forecasts

A short-term real-time operation model with fuzzy state variables is developed for irrigation of multiple crops based on earlier work on long-term steady-state policy. The features of the model that distinguish it from the earlier work are (1) apart from inclusion of fuzziness in reservoir storage and in soil moisture of crops, spatial variations in rainfall and soil moisture of crops are included in the real-time operation model by considering gridded command area with a grid size of 0.5 degrees latitude by 0.5 degrees longitude; (2) the water allocation model and soil moisture balance equations are integrated with the real-time operation model with consideration of ponding water depth for Paddy crop; the model solution specifies reservoir releases for irrigation in a 10-day time period and allocations among the crops on a daily basis at each grid by maintaining soil moisture balance at the end of the day; and (3) the release policy is developed using forecasted daily rainfall data of each grid and is implemented for the current time period using actual 10-day inflow and actual daily rainfall of each grid. The real-time operation model is applied to Bhadra Reservoir in Karnataka, India. The results obtained using the real-time operation model are compared with those of the standard operating policy model. Inclusion of fuzziness in reservoir storage and soil moisture of crops captures hydrologic uncertainties in real time. Considerations of irrigation decisions on a daily basis and the gridded command area result in variations in allocating water to the crops, variations in actual crop evapotranspiration, and variations in soil moisture of the crops on a daily basis for each grid of the command area. (C) 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Waxing and waning of observed extreme annual tropical rainfall

We begin by providing observational evidence that the probability of encountering very high and very low annual tropical rainfall has increased significantly in the most recent decade (1998-present) compared with the preceding warming era (1979-1997). These changes over land and ocean are spatially coherent and comprise a rearrangement of very wet regions and a systematic expansion of dry zones. While the increased likelihood of extremes is consistent with a higher average temperature during the pause (compared with 1979-1997), it is important to note that the periods considered are also characterized by a transition from a relatively warm to a cold phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To probe the relation between contrasting phases of ENSO and extremes in accumulation further, a similar comparison is performed between 1960 and 1978 (another extended cold phase of ENSO) and the aforementioned warming era. Though limited by land-only observations, in this cold-to-warm transition, remarkably, a near-exact reversal of extremes is noted both statistically and geographically. This is despite the average temperature being higher in 1979-1997 compared with 1960-1978. Taking this evidence together, we propose that there is a fundamental mode of natural variability, involving the waxing and waning of extremes in accumulation of global tropical rainfall with different phases of ENSO.

El Nino and the Indian rainfall in June

We have addressed the question of whether the massive deficit of 42% in rainfall over the Indian region in June 2014 can be attributed primarily to the El Nino. We have shown that the variation of convection over the Northern part of the Tropical West Pacific (NWTP: 120-150E, 20-30N) plays a major role in determining the all-India rainfall in June with deficit (excess) in rainfall associated with enhancement (suppression) of convection over NWTP. In June 2014, the outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) anomaly over this region was unfavourable, whereas in June 2015, the OLR anomaly over NWTP was favourable and the all-India rainfall was 16% higher than the long-term average. We find that during El Nino, when the convection over the equatorial central Pacific intensifies, there is a high propensity for intensification of convection over NWTP. Thus, El Nino appears to have an impact on the rainfall over the Indian region via its impact on the convection over the West Pacific, particularly over NWTP. This occurred in June 2014, which suggests that the large deficit in June 2014, could be primarily attributed to the El Nino acting via intensification of convection over NWTP.

Numerical Analysis of Rainfall Infiltration in the Slope with a Fracture

With the finite volume method, a 2D numerical model for seepage in unsaturated soil has been established to study the rainfall infiltration in the fractured slope.The result shows that more rain may infiltrate into the slope due to existing fracture and then the pore pressure rises correspondingly. Very probably, it is one of the crucial factors accounting for slope failure. Furthermore a preliminary study has been conducted to investigate the influence of various fracture and rainfall factors such as the depth, width and location of a crack, surface condition, rainfall intensity and duration. Pore pressure and water volumetric content during the transient seepage are carefully examined to reveal the intrinsic mechanism.

Numerical Study on Rainfall Infiltration in Rock-Soil Blocks

A mathematical model for the rain infiltration in the rock-soil slop has been established and solved by using the finite element method. The unsteady water infiltrating process has been simulated to get water content both in the homogeneous and heterogeneous media. The simulated results show that the rock blocks in the rock-soil slop can cause the wetting front moving fast. If the rain intensity is increased, the saturated region will be formed quickly while other conditions are the same. If the rain intensity keeps a constant, it is possible to accelerate the generation of the saturated region by properly increasing the vertical filtration rate of the rock-soil slop. However, if the vertical filtration rate is so far greater than the rain intensity, it will be difficult to form the saturated region in the rock-soil slop. The numerical method was verified by comparing the calculation results with the field test data.

Plot Erosion Model Using Gray Relational Analysis Method

The main factors affecting interrill erosion-including runoff discharge, rainfall intensity, mean flow velocity, and slope gradient-were analyzed by using a gray relational analysis. An equation for interrill erosion was derived by coupling this analysis with dimensional and regression analyses. The values of erosion rates predicted by this equation were in good agreement with experimental observations.

A Simulation Model for Unified Interrill Erosion and Rill Erosion on Hillslopes

A mathematical model was developed for simulating runoff generation and soil erosion on hillslopes. The model is comprised of three modules: one for overland flow, one for soil infiltration, and one for soil erosion including rill erosion and interrill er

Two-Dimensional Kinematic Wave Model of Overland-Flow

A two-dimensional kinematic wave model was developed for simulating runoff generation and flow concentration on an experimental infiltrating hillslope receiving artificial rainfall. Experimental observations on runoff generation and flow concentration on irregular hillslopes showed that the topography of the slope surface controlled the direction and flow lines of overland flow. The model-simulated results satisfactorily compared with experimental observations. The erosive ability of the concentrated flow was found to mainly depend on the ratio of the width and depth of confluent grooves.

Numerical study on rainfall infiltration in rock-soil slop

A mathematical model for the rain infiltration in the rock-soil slop has been established and solved by using the finite element method. The unsteady water infiltrating process has been simulated to get water content both in the homogeneous and heterogeneous media. The simulated results show that the rock blocks in the rock-soil slop can cause the wetting front moving fast. If the rain intensity is increased, the saturated region will be formed quickly while other conditions are the same. If the rain intensity keeps a constant, it is possible to accelerate the generation of the saturated region by properly increasing the vertical filtration rate of the rock-soil slop. However, if the vertical filtration rate is so far greater than the rain intensity, it will be difficult to form the saturated region in the rock-soil slop. The numerical method was verified by comparing the calculation results with the field test data.

Flood of September 20-23, 1969 in the Gadsden County area, Florida

The center of low pressure of a tropical disturbance which moved northward in the Gulf of Mexico, reached land between Panama City and Port St. Joe, Florida, on September 20, 1969. This system was nearly stationary for 48 hours producing heavy rainfall in the Quincy-Havana area, 70-80 miles northeast of the center. Rainfall associated with the tropical disturbance exceeded 20 inches over a part of Gadsden County, Florida, during September 20 through 23, 1969, and the maximum rainfall of record occurred at Quincy with 10.87 inches during a 6-hour period on September 21. The 48-hour maximum of 17.71 inches exceeded the 1 in 100-year probability of 16 inches for a 7-day period. The previous maximum rainfall of record at Quincy (more than 12 inches) was on September 14-15, 1924. The characteristics of this historical storm were similar in path and effect to the September 1969 tropical disturbance. Peak runoff from a 1.4-square mile area near Midway, Florida, was 1,540 cfs (cubic feet per second) per square mile. A peak discharge of 45,600 cfs on September 22 at the gaging station on the Little River near Quincy exceeded the previous peak of 25,400 cfs which occurred on December 4, 1964. The peak discharge of 89,400 cfs at Ochlockonee River near Bloxham exceeded the April 1948 peak of 50,200 cfs, which was the previous maximum of record, by 1.8 times. Many flood-measurement sites had peak discharges in excess of that of a 50-year flood. Nearly $200,000 was spent on emergency repairs to roads. An additional $520,000 in contractual work was required to replace four bridges that were destroyed. Agricultural losses were estimated at $1,000,000. (44 page document)

Interim report on the hydrologic features of the Green Swamp area in Central Florida

The Green Swamp area in central Florida is another area where man is developing agricultural land from marginal land. Though the area is by no means as extensive as that of the Everglades, the present efforts for its development are similar to the early efforts for developing the Everglades in that many miles of canals and ditches have been constructed to improve the drainage. Lest the early mistakes of the Everglades be repeated, the Florida Department of Water Resources considered that an appraisal of the physical and hydrologic features of the area was needed to determine the broad effects of draining and developing the swamp. This reconnaissance provides information required by the State of Florida for determining its responsibility and policy in regard to the Green Swamp area and for formulating future plans for water management of the area. Some of the features that have been determined are: the amount of rainfall on the area; the pattern of surfacewater drainage; the amount and direction of surface-water runoff; the direction of ground-water movement; the interrelationship of rainfall, surface water, and ground water; the effects of improved drainage facilities'; and the effects of the hydrologic environment on the chemical quality of water of the area.(PDF contains 106 pages.)

Chemical Treatment Methods Pilot (CTMP) System for Treatment of Urban Runoff – Phase I. Feasibility and Design

(pdf contains 418 pages)